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DOE OSTI2024

Search for heavy dark matter from dwarf spheroidal galaxies: leveraging cascades and subhalo models

Abstract TheFermiLarge Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) has been widely used to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) dark matter signals due to its unparalleled sensitivity in the GeV energy band. The leading constraints for WIMP byFermi-LAT are obtained from the analyses of dwarf spheroidal galaxies within the Local Group, which are compelling targets for dark matter searches due to their relatively low astrophysical backgrounds and high dark matter content. In the meantime, the search for heavy dark matter with masses above TeV remains a compelling and relatively unexplored frontier. In this study, we utilize 14-yearFermi-LAT data to search for dark matter annihilation and decay signals in 8 classical dwarf spheroidal galaxies within the Local Group. We consider secondary emission caused by electromagnetic cascades of prompt gamma rays and electrons/positrons from dark matter, which enables us to extend the search withFermi-LAT to heavier dark matter cases. We also update the dark matter subhalo model with informative priors respecting the fact that they reside in subhalos of our Milky Way halo aiming to enhance the robustness of our results. We place constraints on dark matter annihilation cross section and decay lifetime for dark matter masses ranging from 10 3 GeV to 10 11 GeV, where our limits are more stringent than those obtained by many other high-energy gamma-ray instruments.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strong and almost strong modes of Floquet spin chains in Krylov subspaces

Integrable Floquet spin chains are known to host strong zero and π modes which are boundary operators that respectively commute and anticommute with the Floquet unitary generating stroboscopic time evolution, in addition to anticommuting with a discrete symmetry of the Floquet unitary. Thus the existence of strong modes implies a characteristic pairing structure of the full spectrum. Weak interactions modify the strong modes to almost strong modes that almost commute or anticommute with the Floquet unitary. Manifestations of strong and almost strong modes are presented in two different Krylov subspaces. One is a Krylov subspace obtained from a Lanczos iteration that maps the time evolution generated by the Floquet Hamiltonian onto dynamics of a single particle on a fictitious chain with nearest-neighbor hopping. The second is a Krylov subspace obtained from the Arnoldi iteration that maps the time evolution generated directly by the Floquet unitary onto dynamics of a single particle on a fictitious chain with longer-range hopping. While the former Krylov subspace is sensitive to the branch of the logarithm of the Floquet unitary, the latter obtained from the Arnoldi scheme is not. In this work, the effective single-particle models in the Krylov subspace are discussed, and the topological properties of the Krylov chain that ensure stable zero and π modes at the boundaries are highlighted. The role of interactions is discussed. Expressions for the lifetime of the almost strong modes are derived in terms of the parameters of the Krylov subspace, and are compared with exact diagonalization.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer Degradation Mechanisms

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Second Annual Report on Development of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer for Fluid Flow Sensing

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. Because the transducer is intended for immersion in a high temperature corrosive fluid, understanding of material degradation is crucial for estimation of transducer performance lifetime, and development of measurement interpretation algorithms. We conducted a preliminary computational investigation of relevant damage mechanisms of a stainless steel 316 cylindrical resonator in FLiBe salt. The two main damage mechanisms, creep and corrosion, were modeled using multiphysics COMSOL software. Degradation was modeled for a temperature range 500°C to 700°C. Coupling of the damage mechanisms was not considered. These models predict significant inelastic deformation at most temperatures due to creep, and qualitatively predict chromium depletion both along the liquid/solid interface and along the grain boundaries. An algorithmic approach for compensation of these degradation effects during fluid flow measurements will be developed in the future work. To validate sensor physics, we have performed proof-of-principle test of flow sensing in water. For this test, we have developed a cylindrical resonator for K-band, which was machined from brass. The cavity was excited through WR-42 waveguide through a subwavelength hole on the side of the wall of the cylinder. To increase the spectral signal visibility, we developed a signal processing method for baseline subtraction. A flow loop for proof-of-principle test of transducer performance in water was assembled. A commercial flow meter was installed in the loop for reference measurements. Cylindrical cavity was excited in the TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. Frequency shift of cavity spectral response was obtained by gradually increasing water flow rate from 0 to 60gpm. Corresponding monotonic increase of resonant frequency shift by several MHz was observed. Approximate figure of merit of sensitivity to flow rate is 100KHz/GPM. In addition, we have identified an existing liquid sodium experimental setup for demonstration of flow sensing in environment similar to that of an advanced reactor. The setup consists of a cylindrical vessel and center feed line, where transducer inserted through the lid will measure velocity of the impinging liquid jet. As a calibration experiment, we have assembled a water vessel with center feed with the same dimensions as those of the liquid sodium setup. We have also developed and insertion probe consisting of a 50cm brass waveguide enclosed in protective SS316 tube. Using the water loop, we have demonstrated feasibility of sensing the impinging liquid jet in the vessel.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

LH CO 2 MENT Colorado Project (Final Report)

The objective of Electricore’s pre-FEED project “LH CO 2 MENT COLORADO PROJECT” is to accelerate the implementation of a 1.5 million tonnes per year (TPY), and first-of-a-kind (FOAK) at world scale, Svante VeloxoTherm™ carbon capture plant. This project represents a quantum leap to a large-scale facility that will launch Svante’s carbon capture technology into the next era of accomplishments and market acceptance. By completing the Front-End Loading (FEL) Feasibility Study Report (FEL-2) for a fit-for-purpose design at the HOLCIM cement plant, located near Florence Colorado, USA, this technology can be proven as the future of large-scale deployment for carbon capture and storage. This carbon capture plant was designed with the goal of reaching a target of near Net Zero Emissions by capturing 90% of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the HOLCIM cement plant and from the boiler which produces steam required to regenerate the adsorbent. Additionally, this project will be leveraging a renewable Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) using solar energy to acquire power at the target price of 0.04 $/kWh or less. In its current configuration CO 2 emissions from the HOLCIM cement plant is around 700 – 800 kg/ton of clinker produced. The proposed new carbon capture plant will allow a reduction of CO 2 emissions to about 100 kg/ton of clinker produced. The scope of work consists of the process design and capital & operating cost estimation (Class IV) for a total plant capacity of 4,750 TPD of pipeline grade CO 2 . The Svante VeloxoTherm™ technology is comprised of a Rotary Adsorption Machine (RAM) for intensified Thermal Swing Adsorption (TSA) using Structured Adsorbent Beds (SABs) and related Balance of Plant (BOP), including CO 2 compression. A business case (financial analysis) evaluation has been undertaken for the Owner’s management review. Recommendations on how best to proceed to the next stage of the project have been conveyed and are documented within this report. This analysis has relied on a detailed and comprehensive Project Financial Model, evaluating the Total Project IRR (after tax, unlevered, and including all forecast 45Q PTCs and 100% tax efficiency) – the project financial analysis (as opposed to standard TEA analysis) only considered a 12 year plant economic lifetime as a result of 45Q being the sole driver considered at this stage. The Total Project IRR was evaluated across a large number of potential scenarios. The evaluation demonstrated that if the 45Q PTD is increased to $85/MT for sequestration, there are a large number of feasible scenarios which demonstrate economic returns.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observable proton decay in flipped SU(5)

We explore proton decay in a class of realistic supersymmetric flipped SU(5) models supplemented by a U(1) R symmetry which plays an essential role in implementing hybrid inflation. Two distinct neutrino mass models, based on inverse seesaw and type I seesaw, are identified, with the latter arising from the breaking of U(1) R by nonrenormalizable superpotential terms. Depending on the neutrino mass model an appropriate set of intermediate scale color triplets from the Higgs superfields play a key role in proton decay channels that include p → (e + , μ + ) π 0 , p → (e + , μ + ) K 0 , p → $\bar v$π + , and p → $\bar v$K + . We identify regions of the parameter space that yield proton lifetime estimates which are testable at Hyper-Kamiokande and other next generation experiments. We discuss how gauge coupling unification in the presence of intermediate scale particles is realized, and a Z 4 symmetry is utilized to show how such intermediate scales can arise in flipped SU(5). Finally, we compare our predictions for proton decay with previous work based on SU(5) and flipped SU(5).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Multi-Ion Transport Mechanisms in Bipolar Membranes

Bipolar membranes (BPMs) have the potential to become critical components in electrochemical devices for a variety of electrolysis and electrosynthesis applications. Because they can operate under large pH gradients, BPMs enable favorable environments for electrocatalysis at the individual electrodes. Critical to the implementation of BPMs in these devices is understanding the kinetics of water dissociation that occurs within the BPM as well as the co- and counter-ion crossover through the BPM, which both present significant obstacles to developing efficient and stable BPM-electrolyzers. In this study, a continuum model of multi-ion transport in a BPM is developed and fit to experimental data. Specifically, concentration profiles are determined for all ionic species, and the importance of a water-dissociation catalyst is demonstrated. The model describes internal concentration polarization and co- and counter-ion crossover in BPMs, determining the mode of transport for ions within the BPM and revealing the significance of salt-ion crossover when operated with pH gradients relevant to electrolysis and electrosynthesis. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis reveals that the performance and lifetime of BPMs can be improved substantially by using of thinner dissociation catalysts, managing water transport, modulating the thickness of the individual layers in the BPM to control salt-ion crossover, and increasing the ion-exchange capacity of the ion-exchange layers in order to amplify the water-dissociation kinetics at the interface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time monitoring of trace noble gases using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy—An investigation of the impact of bulk gas on plasma properties and sensitivity

The impact of Ar and He bulk gases on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) real-time monitoring of trace Xe and Kr was assessed. LIBS is being developed as a monitoring tool for measuring noble gas transport in molten salt systems, in which traditional sensors may face challenges associated with radiation, corrosive materials, and/or mixed phases. The plasma temperature and electron densities of LIBS plasmas were measured in both static and various flowing Ar and He streams (0–5 L min −1 ). The use of an Ar bulk gas resulted in higher plasma temperature, greater electron densities by an order of magnitude, and extended plasma lifetime compared with when He bulk gas was used. Gas flow rate was found to have little impact on plasma temperature; however, its effect on electron density was significant, indicating the need to consider flow rate–specific models. Matrix effects on emission peaks were reported for both bulk gases. Due to these matrix effects, multivariate models were developed for Xe and Kr ranging from 0 to 700 ppm in both bulk gases. Although the predictive behavior was similar (root mean square error of prediction ranging from 11.1 to 20.6 ppm), the limits of detection were superior in He (Xe: 22.9 ppm, Kr: 30.4 ppm). Furthermore, these models were employed in demonstrative real-time tests (>1 h), which showed strong predictive precision (relative standard deviation <5 %) regardless of the bulk gas. Ultimately, this study provides a guide for the considerations required when developing gaseous LIBS models for real-time monitoring.

Gas flow effects↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distinguishing bulk and surface recombination in CdTe thin films and solar cells using time-resolved terahertz and photoluminescence spectroscopies

Understanding the nature of recombination and its dependence on defects and interfaces is essential for engineering materials and contacts for higher open circuit voltage (V oc ) and power conversion efficiency in photovoltaic (PV) devices. Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) has conventionally been used to evaluate recombination, but carrier redistribution often dominates the response at short times. In this work, we report on the quantification of carrier dynamics and recombination mechanisms by complementary use of both time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy (TRTS) and TRPL combined with numerical modeling of the continuity equations and Poisson’s equation. We have demonstrated this approach using CdTe thin films. A thin film stack with CdTe fabricated by vapor transport deposition and treated with CdCl 2 exhibited a bulk lifetime of 1.7 ± 0.1 ns, negligible CdTe/CdS interface recombination velocity, and back surface recombination velocity of 6.3 ± 1.3 x10 4 cm/s. In contrast, a film stack without CdCl 2 treatment had a bulk lifetime of only 68 ± 12 ps and a higher interface recombination velocity of 4 ± 2 x10 8 cm/s. By determining the locus and mechanisms of performance-limiting recombination, we can accelerate the development of thin-film PVs with higher V oc and efficiency. While the method has been demonstrated here using CdTe, it is also applicable to perovskites, Cu(InGa)Se 2 , Cu2ZnSn(S,Se) 4, and emerging technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Controlling electric and magnetic Purcell effects in phosphorene via strain engineering

Here, we investigate the spontaneous emission lifetime of a quantum emitter near a substrate coated with phosphorene under the influence of uniaxial strain. We consider both electric dipole and magnetic dipole-mediated spontaneous transitions from the excited to the ground state. The modeling of phosphorene is performed by employing a tight-binding model that goes beyond the usual low energy description. We demonstrate that both electric and magnetic decay rates can be strongly tuned by the application of uniform strain, ranging from a near-total suppression of the Purcell effect to a remarkable enhancement of more than 1300% due to the high flexibility associated with the puckered lattice structure of phosphorene. We also unveil the use of strain as a mechanism to tailor the most probable decay pathways of the emitted quanta. Our results show that uniaxially strained phosphorene is an efficient and versatile material platform for the active control of light-matter interactions thanks to its extraordinary optomechanical properties.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fitness for Service Assessment of a Corroded Heat Exchanger

Fermilab s Main Injector Accelerator has used shell & tube heat exchangers to cool various beamline components since its construction in the late 1990s. Many of the heat exchangers still around today are original to the machine. Untreated pond water has been used to exchange heat with the Low Conductivity Water. Throughout the lifetime of Fermilab s heat exchangers, they have undergone significant material degradation in the carbon steel end channels due to corrosion. Wall thickness measurements (per API 510) of each heat exchanger were used to generate a 3D model of the corroded surfaces. In order to continue their safe and reliable operation, ASME FFS-1/API 579 (Fitness-For-Service) was implemented to address their integrity. The assessments consisted of finite element analysis techniques outlined in ASME Section VIII Div. 2 (design by analysis methods for pressure vessels), in accordance with the requirements of ASME FFS-1 Part 4: General Metal Loss, Part 5: Local Metal Loss, and Part 9: Crack Like Flaws. The assessments concluded that each heat exchanger is coined Fit For Service . The Fitness-For-Service standard offers a unique opportunity to facilities and institutions within the DOE National Lab complex to properly and safely assess the integrity of aging equipment necessary to conduct science and research. This poster demonstrates the assessment process and techniques used to determine the heat exchangers are fit for service.

Humenik, Alex [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells

Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for long-lived, massive particles in events with displaced vertices and multiple jets in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for long-lived particles decaying into hadrons is presented. The analysis uses 139 fb –1 of $pp$ collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the LHC using events that contain multiple energetic jets and a displaced vertex. The search employs dedicated reconstruction techniques that significantly increase the sensitivity to longlived particles decaying in the ATLAS inner detector. Background estimates for Standard Model processes and instrumental effects are extracted from data. The observed event yields are compatible with those expected from background processes. The results are used to set limits at 95% confidence level on model-independent cross sections for processes beyond the Standard Model, and on scenarios with pair-production of supersymmetric particles with long-lived electroweakinos that decay via a small $R$-parity-violating coupling. The pair-production of electroweakinos with masses below 1.5 TeV is excluded for mean proper lifetimes in the range from 0.03 ns to 1 ns. When produced in the decay of $m$($\tilde{g}$) = 2.4 TeV gluinos, electroweakinos with $m$($\tilde{χ}_{1}^{0}$) = 1.5 TeV are excluded with lifetimes in the range of 0.02 ns to 4 ns.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic feasibility of borehole thermal energy storage system connected to geothermal heat pumps for seasonal heating load of two buildings in Fairbanks, Alaska

Borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) is an effective solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads in cold regions. This study evaluated the long-term feasibility of a BTES system in the Fairbanks area, Alaska, through building energy modeling, resource characterization, and numerical modeling. The system was designed to store waste heat from a nearby coal power plant during summer and provide thermal energy during winter to geothermal heat pumps supplying heating loads in two buildings. Heating load profiles were modeled for the buildings using EnergyPlus, and the results indicated the annual heating load was 5.6 times greater than the cooling load. 40 borehole heat exchangers were pre-designed approximately 100 m away from the two buildings in terms of land availability and regulatorily optimized depth. The 20-year performance of the designed BTES system under two operational scenarios—one with a 5-year preheating period and one without—was numerically modeled using subsurface temperature and properties characterized through the literature review and thermal response tests. Both scenarios demonstrated that the BTES has the capacity to fully cover the heating loads in the two buildings throughout the 20-year lifetime. Production temperatures at central wells were 33 % higher on average than at outer wells in both scenarios. The 5-year preheating period increased subsurface and extraction temperatures, and correspondingly annual average and total thermal energy production was higher for 8 years than in the scenario without the preheating period. These results highlight the long-term reliability and sustainability of the BTES system in meeting heating demands over its lifetime, with the preheating period offering potential performance improvements. Implementing the BTES system in cold regions with high heating demand, such as Fairbanks, Alaska, could provide a long-term, sustainable energy solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupled nuclear–electronic decay dynamics of O2 inner valence excited states revealed by attosecond XUV wave-mixing spectroscopy

Multiple Rydberg series converging to the $O_2^+$ c $^{4}Σ^{-}_{u}$ state, accessed by 20-25 eV extreme ultraviolet (XUV) light, serve as important model systems for the competition between nuclear dissociation and electronic autoionization. The dynamics of the lowest member of these series, the $3sσ_g $ state around 21 eV, has been challenging to study owing to its ultra-short lifetime (<10 fs). Here, we apply transient wave-mixing spectroscopy with an attosecond XUV pulse to investigate the decay dynamics of this electronic state. Lifetimes of 5.8 ± 0.5 fs and 4.5 ± 0.7 fs at 95% confidence intervals are obtained for v = 0 and v = 1 vibrational levels of the 3s Rydberg state, respectively. A theoretical treatment of predissociation and electronic autoionization finds that these lifetimes are dominated by electronic autoionization. The strong dependence of the electronic autoionization rate on the internuclear distance because of two ionic decay channels that cross the 3s Rydberg state results in the different lifetimes of the two vibrational levels. The calculated lifetimes are highly sensitive to the location of the 3s potential with respect to the decay channels; by slight adjustment of the location, values of 6.2 and 5.0 fs are obtained computationally for the v = 0 and v = 1 levels, respectively, in good agreement with experiment. Overall, an intriguing picture of the coupled nuclear-electronic dynamics is revealed by attosecond XUV wave-mixing spectroscopy, indicating that the decay dynamics are not a simple competition between isolated autoionization and predissociation processes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗