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At least 721 records · Page 40

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

Development and Commercialization of an IDAES-Based Power Plant Performance Monitoring and Optimization System

DOE and NETL have created an advanced, open-source computational platform through the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES). The IDAES platform is a very extensive modeling environment that can be used for a broad range of power plant and process applications. MapEx Software is developing and commercializing a software application that makes it easier to set-up and run IDAES-based analyses. The MapEx-developed software application will replace the need for custom Python language coding with a user-friendly graphical user interface where the user can construct a flowsheet diagram of the IDAES model by inserting icons representing the plant equipment onto the screen. This application will make the implementation of modeling and optimization of existing fossil-fired power plants more straight-forward and less time-consuming. The effort focuses on performance monitoring and optimization of plant operations for the existing coal-fired power plant fleet but is built on a structure that allows expansion into the broad range of applications where IDAES methods may be applied.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Air Handling Units to Create a Diverse Fault Dataset for FDD Innovation: Lessons Learned and Recommendations

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault datasets for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling unit and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for the air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, two detailed AHU models, which included the single duct AHU and dual duct AHU developed in the Modelica language and HVACSIM+ were employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor faults, mechanical faults, and control sequence faults. The fault inclusive data were then validated by comparing fault effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. We report some lessons learnt during the efforts of validating the high volumes of the FDD data sets. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗

Correct Compilation of Concurrent C Code

The CompCert compiler represents a landmark effort in program verification as both a piece of verified software and as a compiler for verified C programs. A key shortcoming of CompCert however is that it does not support multithreaded programs. Prior work to add threads to CompCert has either required major rewrites of parts of the proof or only works for well synchronized programs. The problem is that CompCert’s backward simulation derives from a forward simulation via the determinism of the semantics of intermediate representation languages. This makes the proofs in CompCert easier but also makes them incompatible with standard models of multithreading which are non-deterministic. Here we propose an alternate formulation of CompCert’s proof structure that parameterizes the existing single threaded semantics with nondeterministic behavior generated at the multithreading level. While this is an old trick where program equivalence is concerned, performing it in the context of CompCert is quite subtle. Our approach allows for expressive concurrent semantics and does not require major proof rewrites but still results in a global backward simulation for multithreaded programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model-based data center cooling controls comparative co-design

This article presents a comparative simulation-based control logic design process. It uses the Control Description Language (CDL) and the ASHRAE Guideline 36 high-performing building control sequences with the Modelica Buildings Library (MBL) to demonstrate a comparative analysis of two control designs for a data center chilled water plant. Details include a description of the closed-loop plant and control design methodology, including sizing and parameterization, base and alternative (Guideline 36) control logic with software implementation structure, and outline of the simulation experimentation process. The selected control designs are paired with comparable chilled water plant configurations. The models include a chiller, a water-side economizer, and an evaporative cooling tower. The plant provides cooling at 27ºC zone supply air temperature to a data center in Sacramento, CA. The comparative simulation results examined the impacts of a selected control logic detail, and present an example model-based design application. Overall, the simulation results showed a 25% annual and a 18% summer energy use reduction for alternative controls. This shows that simulation-based control logic design performance evaluation can improve energy efficiency and resilience aspects of system controls at large.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Provenance infrastructure for multimodal x-ray experiments and reproducible analysis

Exploring relationships between material structures and desired properties for material discovery and synthesis requires mining machine-readable databases and linking experimental data with sufficiently rich annotations. There are vast gaps both in these data sources and in the connections between them. We present a provenance-based data management and analysis framework that enables capturing, persisting, and reanalyzing experimental data from the BNL National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II). Our system leverages NSLS-II Bluesky for experimental data acquisition, captures analysis parameters, and enriches the search space with results from the scientific literature. We describe in detail the challenges and benefits of data-driven approaches when comparing computational and experimental data, such as the multiple possible scenarios of interest in often ill-posed inverse problems and missing data. Our infrastructure utilizes the NSLS-II event model and includes discovery mechanisms across multiple beamlines. A text and data mining module using natural language processing classification techniques extracts relevant information from the literature that is added to data sources. We describe a provenance acquisition and analysis rerun workflow based on a directed acyclic graph that keeps track of process and data provenance and allows to replay analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hybrid Simulation Framework

HYBRID is a modeling toolset to assess the economic viability of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy Systems (N-R IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL’s RAVEN, its CashFlow plugin and the Modelica language. The toolset includes sample RAVEN workflows performing economic assessments. These workflows consist of: generation of stochastic time series and application of probabilistic analysis and optimization algorithms (RAVEN); a library of Modelica models representing the physical behavior of N-R IES; and the CashFlow plugin mapping physical performance to economic performance. The toolset allows assembling existing and new models such as nuclear reactors, renewable energy sources, energy storage, gas turbines, industrial processes, etc. into an N-R IES. The toolset workflows evaluate the dynamics of the N-R IES responding to stochastic conditions (electricity demand, price, etc.) and optimize the dispatch economics as well as N-R IES capacity planning.

Epiney, Aaron↗

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Multiphysics for nuclear energy applications using a cohesive computational framework

With the recent development of advanced numerical algorithms, software design, and low-cost high-performance computer hardware, reliance on coupled multiphysics to predict the behavior of complex physical systems is beginning to become standard practice. This is especially true in nuclear energy applications where strong nonlinear interdependencies exist between reactor physics, radiation transport, multi-scale nuclear fuels performance, thermal fluids, etc. Resolving these nonlinear dependencies requires choices in multiphysics software approaches. Two main multiphysics modeling and simulation approaches have emerged. The first is based upon "code coupling" where disparate physics codes of different software design, code languages, and spatial and temporal integration schemes are coupled together with relatively complex data passing interfaces. The second multiphysics software approach is to employ a "cohesive" framework where all physics applications are developed with a common software design, i.e., data structures, syntax, input format, integrated spatial and temporal discretization schemes, etc. In this paper we present the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) development and runtime framework and describe the framework's cohesive modeling and simulation multiphysics approach. Then, a "cohesive-like" extension of the MOOSE framework is presented where MOOSE-based physics software applications are efficiently coupled to non-MOOSE (external) physics codes to form multiphysics applications using MOOSE's unique interface capabilities. Finally, several examples of MOOSE's cohesive and cohesive-like multiphysics applications will be demonstrated. These multiphysics demonstrations will incorporate both MOOSE-based applications and external codes, including Nek5000, RELAP-7, TRACE, BISON, and Pronghorn.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

P3A

Portably Performant Physical Algebra (P3A) is a C++ library that provides classes representing variables in a physical algebra equation. These equations are the fundamental way that physics models are written ("f = ma" for example). P3A provides a way to write in the C++ programming language similar to how one would do math on paper. P3A provides support tools for rapidly solving equations in a way that is common in scientific computing. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-3183 O

Ibanez-Granados, Daniel↗

A Functional All-Hazard Approach to Critical Infrastructure Dependency Analysis

The critical infrastructures protection landscape is a vast and varied pattern of independent, but interconnected infrastructure systems that are essential to the function of our modern society. The U.S. policy on critical infrastructure protection has been continually evolving since the “President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection” was published in 1997. In response to these policies, federal, state, and local governments, along with research institutions, have invested a substantial amount of time and effort into identifying and analyzing critical infrastructure, their functions, and dependencies/interdependencies to better understand their vulnerabilities. To date, the ability to assess vulnerabilities, resiliency, and priorities for protecting interdependent critical infrastructure systems from an all-hazards perspective remains a difficult problem. In this paper we introduce the All-Hazards Analysis (AHA) methodology, which provides an integrated functional basis across infrastructure systems, through the implementation of a common language and a scalable level of decomposition to effectively evaluate the resilience of interconnected infrastructure systems. AHA models infrastructure systems as directed multidimensional graphs, which enable the evaluation of cross-sector interdependencies prior to, during, and after disruptive events. Finally, and by design, AHA enables the cross linking of data taxonomies to enable more effective data sharing, such as the National Critical Functions (NCF) and Infrastructure Data Taxonomy (IDT).

02 PETROLEUM↗

The GABLE Report: Garbled Autonomous Bots Leveraging Ethereum

Simple but mission-critical internet-based applications that require extremely high reliability and availability could potentially benefit from running on robust public programmable blockchain platforms such as Ethereum. Unfortunately, program code running on such blockchains is ordinarily publicly viewable, rendering these platforms unsuitable for applications requiring strict privacy of application code, data, and results. However, might it be possible to encode an application's business logic and data for these platforms in such a way that it becomes impossible for unauthorized parties to infer any meaningful information whatsoever about the semantics of the data, and the operations being performed on that data? In this report, we describe GABLE (Garbled Autonomous Bots Leveraging Ethereum), a system concept developed at Sandia that achieves this security goal in a limited, but still useful range of circumstances. GABLE, uses simple but effective algorithms to permit secure private execution of garbled state machines (and more efficient garbled circuits) on public computing resources. We give an example working implementation for garbled state machines, written using the Python and Solidity programming languages, and outline how our methods can be extended to support a more powerful garbled universal circuit model of computation. The capability embodied by the GABLE, system has significant potential applications, a few of which we discuss in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving the Capabilities and Computational Efficiency of the RTE+RRTMGP Radiation Code (Final Report)

This report details progress on the RTE+RRTMGP radiation codes made during the period of performance. RTE+RRTMGP is a set of codes for computing radiative fluxes in planetary atmospheres. RRTMGP uses a k-distribution to provide an optical description (absorption and possibly Rayleigh optical depth) of the gaseous atmosphere, along with the relevant source functions, on a pre-determined spectral grid given temperatures, pressures, and gas concentration. RTE computes fluxes given spectrally-resolved optical descriptions and source functions. Spectrally-resolved fluxes are summarized (“reduced”) via a user extensible class. The initial release of the code and the design choices are described in Pincus et al. 2019; the codes are available on Github. Although RRTMGP was based on current (at the time) empirical spectroscopic data, RTE and RRTMGP were developed in large part to modernize software practices. The design focused on flexibility broadly interpreted: by separating code from data and allowing data to drive computation; in coupling to the host model (e.g. the coupling of clouds to radiative fluxes is user-controlled); with respect to programming languages (computational tasks are accessed via widely-compatible C interfaces); and with respect to hardware (the codes run on a range of CPU and GPU architectures). The code also puts an emphasis on modularity and clarity. RTE+RRTMGP v1.0 was released in September 20219. This award supported the evolution of the RTE+RRTMGP code base to support greater flexibility, accuracy, and efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗