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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Stirling Analysis Comparison of Commercial Versus High-Order Methods

Recently, three-dimensional Stirling engine simulations have been accomplished utilizing commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The validations reported can be somewhat inconclusive due to the lack of precise time accurate experimental results from engines, export control/proprietary concerns, and the lack of variation in the methods utilized. The last issue may be addressed by solving the same flow problem with alternate methods. In this work, a comprehensive examination of the methods utilized in the commercial codes is compared with more recently developed high-order methods. Specifically, Lele's compact scheme and Dyson's Ultra Hi-Fi method will be compared with the SIMPLE and PISO methods currently employed in CFD-ACE, FLUENT, CFX, and STAR-CD (all commercial codes which can in theory solve a three-dimensional Stirling model with sliding interfaces and their moving grids limit the effective time accuracy). We will initially look at one-dimensional flows since the current standard practice is to design and optimize Stirling engines with empirically corrected friction and heat transfer coefficients in an overall one-dimensional model. This comparison provides an idea of the range in which commercial CFD software for modeling Stirling engines may be expected to provide accurate results. In addition, this work provides a framework for improving current one-dimensional analysis codes.

Dyson, Rodger W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Proposal to Simultaneously Profile Wind and CO2 on Earth and Mars With 2-micron Pulsed Lidar Technologies

2-micron lidar technology has been in use and under continued improvement for many years toward wind measurements. But the 2-micron wavelength region is also rich in absorption lines of CO2 (and H2O to a lesser extent) that can be exploited with the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique to make species concentration measurements. A coherent detection receiver offers the possibility of making combined wind and DIAL measurements with wind derived from frequency shift of the backscatter spectrum and species concentration derived from power of the backscatter spectrum. A combined wind and CO2 measurement capability is of interest for applications on both Earth and Mars. CO2 measurements in the Earth atmosphere are of importance to studies of the global carbon cycle. Data on vertically-resolved CO2 profiles over large geographical observations areas are of particular interest that could potentially be made by deploying a lidar on an aircraft or satellite. By combining CO2 concentration with wind measurements an even more useful data product could be obtained in the calculation of CO2 flux. A challenge to lidar in this application is that CO2 concentration measurements must be made with a high level of precision and accuracy to better than 1%. The Martian atmosphere also presents wind and CO2 measurement problems that could be met with a combined DIAL/Doppler lidar. CO2 concentration in this scenario would be used to calculate atmospheric density since the Martian atmosphere is composed of 95% CO2. The lack of measurements of Mars atmospheric density in the 30-60 km range, dust storm formation and movements, and horizontal wind patterns in the 0-20 km range pose significant risks to aerocapture, and entry, descent, and landing of future robotic and human Mars missions. Systematic measurement of the Mars atmospheric density and winds will be required over several Mars years, supplemented with day-of-entry operational measurements. To date, there have been 5 successful robotic landings on Mars. Atmospheric density and wind reconstruction has been performed for 3 of these entries (the two Viking landers and Mars Pathfinder). At present, all Mars atmospheric density and wind models have these 3 entries (at widely scattered positions and seasons) as their basis, supplemented by coarse orbital measurements of atmospheric opacity and temperature. This lack of data leads to a large uncertainty in prediction of the Mars atmospheric density and winds in the altitude regime where deceleration of landers will occur. This uncertainty will have a dramatically large impact on mass, cost and risk. The precision and accuracy for application to Mars is not as stringent as Earth, but Mars does pose a challenge in needing a high level of wavelength stability and control in order to reference wavelength to the narrow linewidths found in the low atmospheric pressure of Mars, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Singh, Upendra N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Amateur Cleanrooms: Costs May Not Offset Benefits

Contamination and Coatings Branch During my career at NASA, I have encountered a variety of cleanroom systems. With many projects, cost pressures and lack of adequate facilities have forced the managers to resort to amateur cleanrooms to manufacture spacecraft and instruments. These rooms are usually spaces that have been used for other purposes that are converted to cleanroom, usually without the assistance of a contamination control specialist. Often, scientists and engineers are successful in converting an area for experimental use. However, when the area is used for production, countless difficulties are encountered. This paper will document some of the disasters that I have personally witnessed and offer some guidelines for contamination professionals to follow if you are called upon to assist in the development of new cleanrooms. Cleanroom come in all shapes and sizes from special purpose mini-environments (such as flow benches) to large, expansive production facilities. These areas may require a variety of unit operations to be carried out within a short range of each other. The design of the cleanroom should account for compatibilities of these operations to protect the product and personnel. The level of cleanliness has traditionally been associated with the method of ventilation. However, just because and =ea has HEPA filters and greater that 20 air changes per hour does not mean that it is a cleanroom. Airflow is extremely complex; the only way to properly design a cleanroom is through the use of a computer based model. In the aerospace industry, few engineered cleanrooms are modeled. Modeling has been perceived as expensive; however, modern programs and fast computers are changing perception. It is the lack of appreciation for how air flow and location within a cleanroom affects the product that causes most of the problems I have experienced. Currently, the rules defining the best air flow design practices are based on simplistic historical data that are often wrong. The performance of a cleanroom is defined by a set of complex interactions between the airflow, sources of contamination and heat, position of the air terminals and exhausts as well as the objects occupying the space in question. These subtleties are almost never appreciated in the setup of amateur cleanrooms (and sadly, in some engineered cleanroom as well). Experience with the room, measurement of air flows in the room, and black light inspections can be used to

Ramsey, W. Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2005

Reaction Control System Thruster Cracking Consultation: NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Materials Super Problem Resolution Team (SPRT) Findings

The shuttle orbiter s reaction control system (RCS) primary thruster serial number 120 was found to contain cracks in the counter bores and relief radius after a chamber repair and rejuvenation was performed in April 2004. Relief radius cracking had been observed in the 1970s and 1980s in seven thrusters prior to flight; however, counter bore cracking had never been seen previously in RCS thrusters. Members of the Materials Super Problem Resolution Team (SPRT) of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conducted a detailed review of the relevant literature and of the documentation from the previous RCS thruster failure analyses. It was concluded that the previous failure analyses lacked sufficient documentation to support the conclusions that stress corrosion cracking or hot-salt cracking was the root cause of the thruster cracking and lacked reliable inspection controls to prevent cracked thrusters from entering the fleet. The NESC team identified and performed new materials characterization and mechanical tests. It was determined that the thruster intergranular cracking was due to hydrogen embrittlement and that the cracking was produced during manufacturing as a result of processing the thrusters with fluoride-containing acids. Testing and characterization demonstrated that appreciable environmental crack propagation does not occur after manufacturing.

MacKay, Rebecca A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Radiometric Compensation and Calibration for Radarsat ScanSAR

Due to lack of a standard for modeling the radar echo signal in terms of signal unit and coordinates as well as lack of a standard in designing the gain factors in each stage of a processor, absolute radiometric calibration of a SAR system is usually performed by treating the sensor and processor as one inseparable unit. This often makes the calibration procedure complicated and requiring the involvement of both radar system engineers and processor engineers in the whole process. This paper introduces a standard for modeling the radar echo signal and a standard in designing the gain factor of a ScanSAR processor. In this paper, the radar equation is derived based on the amount of energy instead of the power received from a backscatterer. These efforts lead to simple and easy-to-understand equations for radiometric compensation and calibration.

Jin, Michael Y.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-wavelength Radar Studies of the Lunar Maria

Radar measurements at 70 cm and 7.5 m wavelengths provide insight into the structure and chemical properties of the upper 5-100 m of the lunar regolith and crust. Past work has identified a number of anomalous regions and changes in echo strength, some attributed to differences in titanium content. There has been little opportunity, however, to compare calibrated long-wavelength backscatter among different units or to theoretical model results. We combine recent high-resolution (3-5 km) 70-cm radar data for the nearside with earlier calibrated full-disk observations to provide a reasonable estimate of the true lunar backscatter coefficient. These data are tested against models for quasi-specular scattering from the surface, echoes from a buried substrate, and Mie scattering from surface and buried rocks. We find that 70 cm echoes likely arise from Mie scattering by distributed rocks within the soil, consistent with earlier hypotheses. Returns from a buried substrate would provide a plausible fit to the observations only if the regolith depth were ~3 m or less and varied little across the maria. Depolarized echoes are due to some combination of single and multiple scattering events, but it appears that single scattering alone could account for the observed echo power, based on comparisons with terrestrial rocky surfaces. Backscatter strength from the regolith is most strongly affected by the loss tangent, whose variation with mineral content is still poorly defined. We compared the backscatter values for the mare deposits to the oxide contents inferred from spectral ratio methods, and found that in general the unit boundaries evident in radar images closely follow those seen in color difference images. The 70-cm data are not well correlated with TiO2 values found using the Charette relationship nor with Fe abundances derived from Clementine observations. The lack of a relationship between radar echo and Fe content is reasonable given the distribution of iron among various mineral phases, but ilmenite content (FeTiO3) has typically been cited as the dominant cause of changes in loss tangent (and thus the radar absorption). The lack of correlation between the radar data and TiO2 estimates may arise from uncertainties in the Charette technique, subtle differences in the upper surface and bulk properties of the regolith, mineralogic effects on the radar not linked to titanium content, or to some combination of these factors. Dark crater haloes in the mare and highlands, and low radar returns from apparent cryptomare regions, are used to illustrate the role radar data can play in identifying changes in regolith composition; low-return haloes around craters such as Petavius may indicate 5-25% contamination of the highlands soil by excavated mare material or a layer of rock-poor ejecta at least several meters deep. The 7.5-m data were shown to correlate to a reasonable degree with estimates of Fe abundance, suggesting that this component of the mare basalts is primarily responsible for attenuation losses at very long wavelengths. The different sensitivities of the two radar wavelengths and multispectral data offers the potential for future deep mapping of the mare lava flows and regolith.

Lunar MariaRadarLunar Studies↗
NASA NTRS2006

Data Model Management for Space Information Systems

The Reference Architecture for Space Information Management (RASIM) suggests the separation of the data model from software components to promote the development of flexible information management systems. RASIM allows the data model to evolve independently from the software components and results in a robust implementation that remains viable as the domain changes. However, the development and management of data models within RASIM are difficult and time consuming tasks involving the choice of a notation, the capture of the model, its validation for consistency, and the export of the model for implementation. Current limitations to this approach include the lack of ability to capture comprehensive domain knowledge, the loss of significant modeling information during implementation, the lack of model visualization and documentation capabilities, and exports being limited to one or two schema types. The advent of the Semantic Web and its demand for sophisticated data models has addressed this situation by providing a new level of data model management in the form of ontology tools. In this paper we describe the use of a representative ontology tool to capture and manage a data model for a space information system. The resulting ontology is implementation independent. Novel on-line visualization and documentation capabilities are available automatically, and the ability to export to various schemas can be added through tool plug-ins. In addition, the ingestion of data instances into the ontology allows validation of the ontology and results in a domain knowledge base. Semantic browsers are easily configured for the knowledge base. For example the export of the knowledge base to RDF/XML and RDFS/XML and the use of open source metadata browsers provide ready-made user interfaces that support both text- and facet-based search. This paper will present the Planetary Data System (PDS) data model as a use case and describe the import of the data model into an ontology tool. We will also describe the current effort to provide interoperability with the European Space Agency (ESA)/Planetary Science Archive (PSA) which is critically dependent on a common data model.

RDF↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-wavelength Radar Studies of the Lunar Maria

Radar measurements at 70 cm and 7.5 m wavelengths provide insight into the structure and chemical properties of the upper 5-100 m of the lunar regolith and crust. Past work has identified a number of anomalous regions and changes in echo strength, some attributed to differences in titanium content. There has been little opportunity, however, to compare calibrated long-wavelength backscatter among different units or to theoretical model results. We combine recent high-resolution (3-5 km) 70-cm radar data for the nearside with earlier calibrated full-disk observations to provide a reasonable estimate of the true lunar backscatter coefficient. These data are tested against models for quasi-specular scattering from the surface, echoes from a buried substrate, and Mie scattering from surface and buried rocks. We find that 70 cm echoes likely arise from Mie scattering by distributed rocks within the soil, consistent with earlier hypotheses. Returns from a buried substrate would provide a plausible fit to the observations only if the regolith depth were approx.3 m or less and varied little across the maria. Depolarized echoes are due to some combination of single and multiple scattering events, but it appears that single scattering alone could account for the observed echo power, based on comparisons with terrestrial rocky surfaces. Backscatter strength from the regolith is most strongly affected by the loss tangent, whose variation with mineral content is still poorly defined. We compared the backscatter values for the mare deposits to the oxide contents inferred from spectral ratio methods, and found that in general the unit boundaries evident in radar images closely follow those seen in color difference images. The 70-cm data are not well correlated with TiO2 values found using the Charette relationship nor with Fe abundances derived from Clementine observations. The lack of a relationship between radar echo and Fe content is reasonable given the distribution of iron among various mineral phases, but ilmenite content (FeTiO3) has typically been cited as the dominant cause of changes in loss tangent (and thus the radar absorption). The lack of correlation between the radar data and TiO2 estimates may arise from uncertainties in the Charette technique, subtle differences in the upper surface and bulk properties of the regolith, mineralogic effects on the radar not linked to titanium content, or to some combination of these factors. Dark crater haloes in the mare and highlands, and low radar returns from apparent cryptomare regions, are used to illustrate the role radar data can play in identifying changes in regolith composition; low-return haloes around craters such as Petavius may indicate 5-25% contamination of the highlands soil by excavated mare material or a layer of rock-poor ejecta at least several meters deep. The 7.5-m data were shown to correlate to a reasonable degree with estimates of Fe abundance, suggesting that this component of the mare basalts is primarily responsible for attenuation losses at very long wavelengths. The different sensitivities of the two radar wavelengths and multispectral data offers the potential for future deep mapping of the mare lava flows and regolith.

Lunar Studies↗
NASA NTRS2006

Can MODIS Data Calibrate and Validate Coastal Sediment Transport Models? Rapid Prototyping Using 250 m Data and the ECOMSED Model for Lake Pontchartrain, LA USA

Field measurements from small boats and sparse arrays of instrumented buoys often do not provide sufficient data to capture the dynamic nature of biogeophysical parameters in may coastal aquatic environments. Several investigators have shown the MODIS 250 m images can provide daily synoptic views of suspended sediment concentration in coastal waters to determine sediment transport and fate. However, the use of MODIS for coastal environments can be limited due to a lack of cloud-free images. Sediment transport models are not constrained by sky conditions but often suffer from a lack of in situ observations for model calibration or validation. We demonstrate here the utility of MODIS 250 m to calibrate (set model parameters), validate output, and set or reset initial conditions of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model (ECOMSED) developed for Lake Pontchartrain, LA USA. We present our approach in the context of how to quickly assess of 'prototype' an application of NASA data to support environmental managers and decision makers. The combination of daily MODIS imagery and model simulations offer a more robust monitoring and prediction system of suspended sediments than available from either system alone.

Miller, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

INTEGRAL Observations of the Enigmatic Be Stars (gamma) Cassiopeiae and HD 110432

We present the results of a hard X-ray study of the Be stars gamma Cassiopeiae and HD 110432 based on observations made with the INTEGRAL observatory. These stars are known to be moderately strong, X-ray sources (L(sub x) approx. equal to = 10(sup 32)-10(sup 33) erg per second). These values are at the extreme high end of the known luminosity distribution for active coronal systems, but several orders of magnitude below typical X-ray binaries. The hard X-ray spectra for these systems are quite similar. They can be well fitted by either optically thin thermal plasma models with kT = 12.5 - 14 keV or a cutoff powerlaw + gaussian line model with photon indices in the 1.3 - 1.5 range and a line energy of 6.7 keV. The 20-50 keV light curves show no evidence for flaring and no significant evidence for periodic variability. It has been proposed that the X-ray emission is due to either accretion onto a white dwarf companion or magnetic activity near the surface of the Be star. We discuss in detail the pros and cons of each scenario towards explaining our spectral and temporal results. Given that both thermal and nonthermal models fit the data equally well, we cannot use the spectra to delineate between these two scenarios. Recent observations indicate that gamma Cas has a approx. 1 solar mass companion in a 203.59 day orbit. This is consistent with the white dwarf - Be star binary model but the lack of periodic modulation of the flux on this timescale calls this conclusion into question. On the other hand the lack of flaring activity may rule against the magnetic activity model. We discuss advances in observations and theory that need to be made to resolve the origin of these systems.

Sturner, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stirling Analysis Comparison of Commercial vs. High-Order Methods

Recently, three-dimensional Stirling engine simulations have been accomplished utilizing commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The validations reported can be somewhat inconclusive due to the lack of precise time accurate experimental results from engines, export control/ proprietary concerns, and the lack of variation in the methods utilized. The last issue may be addressed by solving the same flow problem with alternate methods. In this work, a comprehensive examination of the methods utilized in the commercial codes is compared with more recently developed high-order methods. Specifically, Lele's Compact scheme and Dyson s Ultra Hi-Fi method will be compared with the SIMPLE and PISO methods currently employed in CFD-ACE, FLUENT, CFX, and STAR-CD (all commercial codes which can in theory solve a three-dimensional Stirling model although sliding interfaces and their moving grids limit the effective time accuracy). We will initially look at one-dimensional flows since the current standard practice is to design and optimize Stirling engines with empirically corrected friction and heat transfer coefficients in an overall one-dimensional model. This comparison provides an idea of the range in which commercial CFD software for modeling Stirling engines may be expected to provide accurate results. In addition, this work provides a framework for improving current one-dimensional analysis codes.

Dyson, Rodger W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Evident Biological Effects of Space Radiation in Astronauts

Though cancer risks are the primary concern for astronauts exposed to space radiation and a number of astronauts have developed cancer, identifying a direct association or cause of disease has been somewhat problematic due to a lack of statistics and a lack of an appropriate control group. However, several bio,logical effects observed in astronauts are believed to be primarily due to exposure to space radiation. Among those are, light flashes experienced by astronauts from early missions, cataract development in the crewmembers and excess chromosome aberrations detected in astronauts' lymphocytes postmission. The space radiation environment and evident biological effects will be discussed.

Wu, Honglu↗
NASA NTRS2007

Research Infrastructure Challenges for Graduate Programs in STEM Disciplines at Minority Institutions

It is much more challenging to perform experimental research functions at many minority institutions, because of lack of adequate research infrastructure. This is especially true if one wishes to initiate and implement masters and doctoral degree program in physics. In the present paper, an attempt is made to discuss the various hurdles encountered by the authors in the establishment of Master's and Doctoral degree programs in physics at one of the HBCUs (Historically Black Colleges and Universities). The department got no special or necessary treatment and faculty members are asked to teach as much course work as any other undergraduate department on the campus. It was very hard to convince university administration that giving less teaching load to research producing department faculty, shall culminate in abundant funding for the future years. This scenario created an extra heavy pressure on the faculty to continue the program. Some of the challenges included the resistance of some faculty and administrators to change, lack of sufficient release time for research producing faculty, and potential variation in funding or support with changes in the state education budget proration or members of the administration. In spite of the indirect cost recovery, very little infrastructure facilities was provided and the federal funding agencies did not want to interfere in the administration of the university. Various issues of recruiting and mentoring minority students, retention in the STEM disciplines as well as research infrastructure challenges at an HBCU university are presented.

Aggarwal, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2007

Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent seasonal cycle from ocean color sensors. A false secondary peak in chlorophyll occurred in May-August, which resulted from lack of sampling in the Antarctic.

Gregg, Watson W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty Analysis of Air Radiation for Lunar Return Shock Layers

By leveraging a new uncertainty markup technique, two risk analysis methods are used to compute the uncertainty of lunar-return shock layer radiation predicted by the High temperature Aerothermodynamic Radiation Algorithm (HARA). The effects of epistemic uncertainty, or uncertainty due to a lack of knowledge, is considered for the following modeling parameters: atomic line oscillator strengths, atomic line Stark broadening widths, atomic photoionization cross sections, negative ion photodetachment cross sections, molecular bands oscillator strengths, and electron impact excitation rates. First, a simplified shock layer problem consisting of two constant-property equilibrium layers is considered. The results of this simplified problem show that the atomic nitrogen oscillator strengths and Stark broadening widths in both the vacuum ultraviolet and infrared spectral regions, along with the negative ion continuum, are the dominant uncertainty contributors. Next, three variable property stagnation-line shock layer cases are analyzed: a typical lunar return case and two Fire II cases. For the near-equilibrium lunar return and Fire 1643-second cases, the resulting uncertainties are very similar to the simplified case. Conversely, the relatively nonequilibrium 1636-second case shows significantly larger influence from electron impact excitation rates of both atoms and molecules. For all cases, the total uncertainty in radiative heat flux to the wall due to epistemic uncertainty in modeling parameters is 30% as opposed to the erroneously-small uncertainty levels (plus or minus 6%) found when treating model parameter uncertainties as aleatory (due to chance) instead of epistemic (due to lack of knowledge).

Kleb, Bil↗
NASA NTRS2008

Mice Drawer System

The Mice Drawer System (MDS) is an Italian Space Agency (ASI) facility which is able to support mice onboard the International Space Station during long-duration exploration missions (from 100 to 150-days) by living space, food, water, ventilation and lighting. Mice can be accommodated either individually (maximum 6) or in groups (4 pairs). MDS is integrated in the Space Shuttle middeck during transportation (uploading and downloading) to the ISS and in an EXPRESS Rack in Destiny, the US Laboratory during experiment execution. Osteoporosis is a debilitating disease that afflicts millions of people worldwide. One of the physiological changes experienced by astronauts during space flight is the accelerated loss of bone mass due to the lack of gravitational loading on the skeleton. This bone loss experienced by astronauts is similar to osteoporosis in the elderly population. MDS will help investigate the effects of unloading on transgenic (foreign gene that has been inserted into its genome to exhibit a particular trait) mice with the Osteoblast Stimulating Factor-1, OSF-1, a growth and differentiation factor, and to study the genetic mechanisms underlying the bone mass pathophysiology. MDS will test the hypothesis that mice with an increased bone density are likely to be more protected from osteoporosis, when the increased bone mass is a direct effect of a gene involved in skeletogenesis (skeleton formation). Osteoporosis is a debilitating disease that afflicts millions worldwide. One of the physiological changes experienced by astronauts during space flight is the accelerated loss of bone mass due to the lack of gravitational loading on the skeleton, a loss that is similar to osteoporosis in the elderly population on Earth. Osteoblast Stimulating Factor-1 (OSF-1), also known as pleiotrophin (PTN) or Heparin-Binding Growth- Associated Molecule (HB-GAM) belongs to a family of secreted heparin binding proteins..OSF-1 is an extracellular matrix-associated growth and differentiation factor that is normally expressed in cartilage; it can stimulate the proliferation and differentiation of human osteoprogenitor cells (cell that differentiate into an osteoblast) in vitro. The Mice Drawer System will study the effects of microgravity on transgenic mouse bones in order to identify genetic mechanisms playing a role in the reduction of the bone mass observed in humans and animals as a consequence of long-duration (greater than 100 days) microgravity exposure. Onboard the ISS, MDS is relatively self-sufficient; a crewmember will check the health status of the rodents on a daily basis, by assessing them through the viewing window. Water levels will be assessed by the crew daily and refilled as needed. Replacement of the food bars and replacement of the waste filters will be conducted inflight by crewmembers every 20-days.

Cancedda, Ranieri↗