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At least 721 records · Page 40

FC Site 4.0 - NLR Thermodynamic profiler (ASSIST II-11) Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NLR ASSIST II infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height (CBH) from co-located scanning lidar. The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data was not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches in Denver, CO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Insights into Long-Term Global Precipitation from IMERG and GPCP

Multiple satellite-based datasets provide estimates of the long-term record of global precipitation. Each necessarily includes both the real atmospheric behavior and a collection of artifacts driven by the input data sources and design choices in the retrievals and dataset construction. For this presentation, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission’s U.S. Science Team are designed as a modern High-Resolution Precipitation Product (HRPP), while the Global Precipitation Climatology Project’s (GPCP) products are designed as a modern Climate Data Record (CDR). Although they share some common input data sources, the computational process for each is rather different. Comparing the precipitation estimates from each algorithm gives us insights into likely artifacts and the natural variations that are common to both. The goal of an HRPP is to give the best estimate of precipitation at each time step in the dataset, generally meaning that “all possible available” data are used. In contrast, the CDR is intended to provide a precipitation record that has relatively homogeneous statistics, necessary for climate analysis. Each analysis strives for both goals, of course, but this means that the HRPP uses the disparate collection of satellites whose statistics don’t quite match the ideal record, while the CDR is computed from fewer satellites that provide a relatively homogeneous set of precipitation statistics. This presentation employs the current versions of the IMERG and GPCP products, V07B and V3.2, respectively. A variety of analyses have demonstrated that IMERG has more artifacts, as expected, which tend to result from changes in the source of intercalibration for the various input satellites, namely the Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm using TMI and PR during the TRMM era and using GMI and DPR-Ku during the GPM era. As well, a shift occurs when the altitudes of the TRMM and GPM satellites change as a result of orbit boosts. For the most part the mean precipitation shows good continuity across these boundaries, but there are noticeable changes in the respective histograms. The latter has taken on more importance in recent years due to increased scrutiny on extremes which implicitly focus on the upper end of the precipitation histograms. The GPCP product is more homogeneous, with only one major change in calibrator, transitioning from the SSMI series of satellites to the SSMIS series of satellites in 2009. The GPCP analysis does a good job of minimizing artifacts in the means at this boundary, while the histograms show a smaller, but still noticeable shift in the histograms, a result that is similar to data boundaries in IMERG. The GPCP Daily, which is a month-by-month rescaling of the daily accumulated IMERG Final product, shows more consistency than the equivalent daily IMERG, but inherits the histogram shifts from IMERG. Given this overlay of artifacts, there is enough consistency between the products to illustrate some important long-term variations, including interannual variations, not all of which are easily attributable to ENSO events, and trends that are large regionally, but comparatively small when averaged across the globe.

precipitation↗

A fault tolerant approach to state estimation and failure detection in nonlinear systems

The design problem considered in the present investigation involves a nonlinear discrete time stochastic system where replicated sensors provide redundant observations of inputs and outputs of the system, compensate for sensor 'normal operating' bias levels, and generate reliable estimates for the plant states in the presence of possible sensor failures. The resulting fault tolerant design should utilize inherent analytical redundancy and be capable of detecting many different types and levels of sensor failures. In addition, it should have minimal complexity. In connection with these goals, a sensor fault tolerant system design methodology is developed. The performance of the considered approach to an application is discussed, taking into account the design of a sensor fault tolerant system using analytic redundancy for the Terminal Configured Vehicle research aircraft in a microwave landing system environment.

Lancraft, R. E.↗

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗

Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

PROBABILITY↗

NWTC Site 4.0 - NREL ASSIST (SN10) / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.12 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 10) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a Vaisala CL51 ceilometer. The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data were not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Denver, CO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NWTC Site 3.2 - NREL ASSIST (SN12) / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.12 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a Vaisala CL51 ceilometer. The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data were not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Denver, CO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Title NWTC Site 3.2 - NREL ASSIST (SN11) / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.12 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 11) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a Vaisala CL51 ceilometer. The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data were not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Denver, CO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NREL ASSIST Barge / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe v0.19

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg, 2019; Turner and Löhnert, 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated NREL Vaisala CL51 ceilometer (when available) or vertically staring Halo XR lidar, and surface temperature, relative humidity, and pressure from the collocated Oregon State University met tower. The full pipeline to run the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al., 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Site B - NREL ASSIST (SN11) Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.12 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 11) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height (CBH), which is a combined data product that uses data from ceilometers at sites A1 and H and scanning lidars from ARM sites C1 and E37. The CBH is weighted inversely proportionally to the distance to the respective site to take into account the spatial variability of clouds (see https://github.com/StefanoWind/ASSIST_analysis/blob/main/awaken_processing/combine_cbh.py). The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data was not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at ARM SGP, OK.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Site G - NREL ASSIST (SN10) Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.12 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 10) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height (CBH), which is a combined data product that uses data from ceilometers at sites A1 and H and scanning lidars from ARM sites C1 and E37. The CBH is weighted inversely proportionally to the distance to the respective site to take into account the spatial variability of clouds (see https://github.com/StefanoWind/ASSIST_analysis/blob/main/awaken_processing/combine_cbh.py). The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data was not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at ARM SGP, OK.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Site C1a - NREL ASSIST (SN12) Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.12 (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height (CBH), which is a combined data product that uses data from ceilometers at sites A1 and H and scanning lidars from ARM sites C1 and E37. The CBH is weighted inversely proportionally to the distance to the respective site to take into account the spatial variability of clouds (see https://github.com/StefanoWind/ASSIST_analysis/blob/main/awaken_processing/combine_cbh.py). The full pipeline for running the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. Met data was not ingested. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at ARM SGP, OK.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Rhode Island Site - NREL ASSIST Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe v0.19 / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg, 2019; Turner and Löhnert, 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from the collocated NREL upgraded Galion lidar (Newsom et al., 2019), and surface temperature, relative humidity, and pressure from the collocated PNNL met tower. The full pipeline to run the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al., 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Influence of point defect accumulation on in-pile thermal conductivity degradation: Fuel rod defect distribution and deviation between in-pile and post irradiation thermal conductivity

As nuclear fuel burn-up increases, its thermal conductivity degrades due to the accumulation of defects that lead to increased phonon scattering rates. This results in a rise in the centerline temperature of the fuel rod, whereby heat generation must be decreased to avoid undesired behavior such as fuel melting and extensive fission gas release. Fuel performance codes are utilized to optimize the fuel's operational conditions; while they are based on established physical principles, their empirical nature limits their predictive capabilities. Recently, an effort has been made to develop predictive fuel performance codes for commonly used nuclear fuels, as well as accelerated qualification of advanced nuclear fuels. In this report, we elaborate on the importance of careful analysis of point defects’ impact on thermal conductivity in fuel performance analysis. Further, a model is presented where point defect concentration is estimated based on Rate Theory modeling and used as input to the Klemens-Callaway model to calculate their contribution to the degradation of thermal conductivity in UO 2 under prototypical irradiation conditions. This analysis suggests that point defect concentration is significant at the rim of the fuel pellet and neglecting this leads to underestimation of the centerline temperature, which may have consequences on fission gas behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Benchmarking greenhouse gas emissions from US wastewater treatment for targeted reduction

Here, in this study, to assess the national climate impact of wastewater treatment and inform decarbonization, we assembled a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory of 15,863 facilities in the contiguous USA. Considering location and treatment configurations, we modelled on-site CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 production and emissions associated with energy, chemical inputs and solids disposal. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated median national emissions at 47 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year, with on-site process CH 4 and N 2 O emissions exceeding current government estimates by 41%. Treatment configurations with anaerobic digesters are responsible for 16 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year of fugitive methane, outweighing benefits achieved through on-site electricity generation. Systems designed for nutrient removal have the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity, attributable to energy requirements and N 2 O production, demonstrating current trade-offs between meeting water quality and climate objectives. We analysed key sensitivities and included a geospatial analysis to highlight the scale and distribution of opportunities for reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Function AAA Algorithm Applied to Frequency Dependent Line Modeling

Modeling of power distribution system components that are valid for a wide range of frequencies are crucial for highly accurate modeling of electromagnetic transient (EMT) events. This has recently become of interest due to the improvements needed for the resilient operation of distribution systems. Vector fitting (VF) is a very popular and commonly used algorithm for wide band representations of power system components in EMT simulations. In this research, we present a new multi-input rational approximation algorithm (MIAAA) and illustrate its advantages with respect to VF using examples of approximations of admittance matrices discussed in the literature. We show that MIAAA not only outperforms VF in terms of achieving better accuracy using lesser number of poles, but also has no numerical issues achieving convergence. In contrast to VF, MIAAA is not sensitive to the location of input sample points and it does not require good estimates for the location of the desired approximation poles. The novelty of this research work is the use of recent mathematical results to solve existing challenges in distribution system modeling and to develop rational approximations for power system models that intend to be optimal in terms of accuracy and performance.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Basin‐Scale Testing of Alternative Data‐Driven Approaches

Abstract Integrated hydrological modeling is an effective method for understanding interactions between parts of the hydrologic cycle, quantifying water resources, and furthering knowledge of hydrologic processes. However, these models are dependent on robust and accurate datasets that physically represent spatial characteristics as model inputs. This study evaluates multiple data‐driven approaches for estimating hydraulic conductivity and subsurface properties at the continental‐scale, constructed from existing subsurface dataset components. Each subsurface configuration represents upper (unconfined) hydrogeology, lower (confined) hydrogeology, and the presence of a vertical flow barrier. Configurations are tested in two large‐scale U.S. watersheds using an integrated model. Model results are compared to observed streamflow and steady state water table depth (WTD). We provide model results for a range of configurations and show that both WTD and surface water partitioning are important indicators of performance. We also show that geology data source, total subsurface depth, anisotropy, and inclusion of a vertical flow barrier are the most important considerations for subsurface configurations. While a range of configurations proved viable, we provide a recommended Selected National Configuration 1 km resolution subsurface dataset for use in distributed large‐and continental‐scale hydrologic modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗