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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Rapid Microfluidic Neptunium Extraction Using a Supported Liquid Membrane Module

Extraction of neptunium from acidic matrices is important for its quantification, but its complex redox chemistry can cause variable yields. This study develops a microfluidic redox extraction for rapidly separating neptunium from submilliliter samples, achieving up to 90% process yield in less than 10 min for samples as small as 100 μL, with over 97% steady-state yield achieved after 20 min. It uses a supported liquid membrane module loaded with 30 vol % tributyl phosphate in n-dodecane, which performs forward- and back-extractions in a single, continuous step. Neptunium is first oxidized to +6 for extraction and then reduced during stripping. Bromate was selected as an oxidant over permanganate for its greater compatibility with the organic phase, achieving complete oxidation in under 30 s. Ascorbic acid and hydrogen peroxide were both effective reductants. Finally, the system’s high yield and rapid kinetics make it promising for future separations from complex mixtures.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Matrix-Assisted Ionization of Molecular Uranium Species

Matrix-assisted ionization (MAI) demonstrates high sensitivity for a variety of organic compounds; however, few studies have reported the application of MAI for the detection and characterization of inorganic analytes. Trace-level uranium analysis is important in the realms of nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards, and environmental monitoring. Traditional mass spectrometry methods employed in these fields require combinations of extensive laboratory chemistry sample preparation and destructive ionization methods. There has been recent interest in exploring ambient mass spectrometry methods that enable timely sample analysis and higher sensitivity than what is attainable by field-portable radiation detectors. Rapid characterization of uranium at nanogram levels is demonstrated in this study using MAI techniques. Mass spectra were collected on an atmospheric pressure mass spectrometer for solutions of uranyl nitrate, uranyl chloride, uranyl acetate, and uranyl oxalate utilizing 3-nibrobenzonitrile as the ionization matrix. The uranyl complexes investigated were detectable, and the chemical speciation was preserved. Sample analysis was accomplished in a matter of seconds, and limits of detection of 5 ng of uranyl nitrate, 10 ng of uranyl oxalate, 100 ng of uranyl chloride, and 200 ng of uranyl acetate were achieved. The observed gas-phase speciation was similar to negative-ion electrospray ionization of uranyl compounds with notable differences. Six matrix-derived ions were detected in all negative-ion mass spectra, and some of these ions formed adducts with the uranyl analyte. Subsequent analysis of the matrix suggests that these molecules are not matrix contaminants and are instead created during the ionization process.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulations of activities, solubilities, transport properties, and nucleation rates for aqueous electrolyte solutions

This article reviews recent molecular simulation studies of "collective" properties of aqueous electrolyte solutions, specifically free energies and activity coefficients, solubilities, nucleation rates of crystals, and transport coefficients. These are important fundamental properties for biology and geoscience, but also relevant for many technological applications. Their determination from molecular-scale calculations requires large systems and long sampling times, as well as specialized sampling algorithms. As a result, such properties have not typically been taken into account during optimization of force field parameters; thus, they provide stringent tests for the transferability and range of applicability of proposed molecular models. There has been significant progress on simulation algorithms to enable the determination of these properties with good statistical uncertainties. Comparisons of simulation results to experimental data reveal deficiencies shared by many commonly used models. Moreover, there appear to exist specific tradeoffs within existing modeling frameworks, so that good prediction of some properties is linked to poor prediction for specific other properties. For example, non-polarizable models that utilize full charges on the ions generally fail to predict accurately both activity coefficients and solubilities; the concentration dependence of viscosity and diffusivity for these models is also incorrect. Scaled-charge models improve the dynamic properties and could also perform well for solubilities, but fail in the prediction of nucleation rates. Even models that do well at room temperature for some properties generally fail to capture their experimentally observed temperature dependence. Finally, the main conclusion from the present review is that qualitatively new physics will need to be incorporated in future models of electrolyte solutions to allow description of collective properties for broad ranges of concentrations, temperatures, and solvent conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced monolithic 2D multilayer Laue lens (MLL) optics for hard x-ray nanofocusing and nanotomography

We report on the development of a new generation of monolithic two-dimensional (2D) multilayer Laue lens (MLL) optics suitable for high-resolution hard x-ray nanoimaging. The 2D optics were assembled on microfabricated silicon templates with high orthogonality and lateral alignment precision, which were characterized using white-light interferometry and confirmed by x-ray measurements. The developed monolithic 2D MLL optics were successfully employed for hard x-ray nanofocusing and nanotomography experiments using the ptychography imaging modality, demonstrating sub-10 nm resolution in 2D and sample-limited ∼30 nm in three-dimensional while exhibiting excellent stability during extended measurements. The new 2D MLL templates with high alignment accuracy represent an important step forward in the development of 2D MLL optics toward direct nanoimaging experiments with sub-10 nm spatial resolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel Bayesian approach for decomposing the radio emission of quasars: I. Modelling the radio excess in red quasars

ABSTRACT Studies show that both radio jets from the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the star formation (SF) activity in quasar host galaxies contribute to the quasar radio emission; yet their relative contributions across the population remain unclear. Here, we present an improved parametric model that allows us to statistically separate the SF and AGN components in observed quasar radio flux density distributions, and investigate how their relative contributions evolve with AGN bolometric luminosity ($L_\mathrm{bol}$) and redshift (z) using a fully Bayesian method. Based on the newest data from LOw-Frequency ARray Two-metre Sky Survey data release 2, our model gives robust fitting results out to $z\sim 4$, showing a quasar host galaxy SF rate (SFR) evolution that increases with bolometric luminosity and with redshift out to $z\sim 4$. This differs from the global cosmic SFR density, perhaps due to the importance of galaxy mergers. The prevalence of radio AGN emissions increases with quasar luminosity, but has little dependence on redshift. Furthermore, our new methodology and large sample size allow us to subdivide our data set to investigate the role of other parameters. Specifically, in this paper, we explore quasar colour and demonstrate that the radio excess in red quasars is due to an enhancement in AGN-related emission, since the host galaxy SF contribution to the total radio emission is independent of quasar colour. We also find evidence that this radio enhancement occurs mostly in quasars with weak or intermediate radio power.

Yue, B. -H (ORCID:0009000989352929)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recovery of a high-pressure phase formed under laser-driven compression

The recovery of metastable structures formed at high pressure has been a long-standing goal in the field of condensed matter physics. While laser-driven compression has been used as a method to generate novel structures at high pressure, to date no high-pressure phases have been quenched to ambient conditions. Here we demonstrate, using in situ x-ray diffraction and recovery methods, the successful quench of a high-pressure phase which was formed under laser-driven shock compression. We show that tailoring the pressure release path from a shock-compressed state to eliminate sample spall, and therefore excess heating, increases the recovery yield of the high-pressure ω phase of zirconium from 0% to 48%. Our results have important implications for the quenchability of novel phases of matter demonstrated to occur at extreme pressures using nanosecond laser-driven compression.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of high-temperature superconductivity in C2/c-24 solid hydrogen

Recent experimental developments in hydrogen-rich materials at high pressures have put this class of materials above others in the race toward room-temperature superconductivity. As it is the basis of all the materials in this class, the efforts to determine the properties of pure solid hydrogen at high pressures remain intense. Most notably, a recent experimental study of the metallization of hydrogen identified the crystal phase of the solid as the C2/c-24 molecular phase up to ~425 GPa [Loubeyre et al., Nature (London) 577, 631 (2020)10.1038/s41586-019-1927-3]. It is possible that the observed metallization is caused by band structure effects and not a structural phase transition, and the material remains in this crystal phase up to higher pressures [Dogan et al., J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 33, 03LT01 (2020)10.1088/1361-648X/abba8a]. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to determine the superconducting properties of the C2/c-24 phase. Here, we employ a Wannier function-based dense k-point and q-point sampling to compute the electron-phonon coupling and superconducting properties of molecular hydrogen in the C2/c-24 phase. We find that the material has a high superconducting transition temperature of 242 K at 500 GPa. We also find that the transition temperature rapidly increases with pressure in the 400-500-GPa range.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Probabilistic Power Flow via Hybrid Multi-Surrogate Method

The risks associated with rare events threatening the security of power system operation are of paramount importance to power system planners and operators. To analyze the risks caused by high-impact, low-frequency rare events, an immensely large number of samples are typically required for the Monte-Carlo (MC) method on the high-fidelity power system model to achieve a sufficient accuracy, thereby rendering this approach computationally prohibitive. To handle this problem efficiently, it is desirable to construct a surrogate model for the power system response. However, the straightforward MC sampling of the low-fidelity surrogate can lead to biased results in the low-probability tail regions that are vital to risk assessment. Moreover, a single surrogate is unable to handle the topology uncertainties caused by random branch outages. To overcome these issues, we propose a hybrid multi-surrogate (HMS) method based on the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with low-probability tail events reevaluated by the high-fidelity model through a probabilistic analysis. This method improves the computational efficiency of the MC method for rare-event risk assessment by leveraging multi-fidelity models while retaining the desired accuracy. Simulations conducted in three test systems verify the excellent performances of the HMS method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact on aggregate/matrix bonding when a refractory contains zinc aluminate instead of spinel and magnesia‐chrome

The high hot strength of MgO–Cr 2 O 3 refractory is often ascribed to its intimate aggregate/matrix bonding. For a fundamental comparison with it, ~2 mm aggregates of MgO and Al 2 O 3 were separately embedded in ZnAl 2 O 4 and MgAl 2 O 4 matrices, sintered at 1600°C, and examined. It was found that similarity of thermal expansion coefficient (TEC) between the aggregate and the matrix is critical to achieve good bonding and this is more important than the extent of interdiffusion. The TEC mismatch of ≥ 5.7 × 10 -6 K -1 caused significant undesirable debonding in MgO aggregate/MgAl 2 O 4 matrix sample and MgO/ZnAl 2 O 4 despite >736 μm Zn 2+ diffusion depth in the latter. Direct bonding, as inferred from a thicker interfacial reaction layer and a greater shift of the aggregate/matrix interface before and after firing, was better in MgAl 2 O 4 /ZnAl 2 O 4 combination, followed by tabular Al 2 O 3 /ZnAl 2 O 4 and Al 2 O 3 /MgAl 2 O 4 . Powder X-ray diffraction indicated that the volatilization of ZnAl 2 O 4 at 1600°C in air was negligible compared to MgO–Cr 2 O 3 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

National Criticality Experiments Research Center, NCERC NEWS (Apr. - Jun. 2021) [Slides]

National Center for Nuclear Security (NCNS) samples were irradiated on Godiva. Fission chamber testing for NCNS was conducted on Flat-Top. This operation involved multiple core configuration changes, which doubled as important training opportunities for NEN-2 Crew Member Trainees. These experiments support nuclear forensics research.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Impact of Absorbed Surface Impurities (CO, CO 2 , CH 4 , and H 2 O) on Getter Rate Performance

This report provides an overview of engineering and experimental efforts to establish a new capability for measuring H2 uptake rates for Tritium Producing Abosrber Rod (TPBAR) getter materials. This new system was used to gain a better understanding of the impact of contaminant species (CO 2 , CO, CH 4 , and H 2 O) on getter performance under relevant hydrogen uptake conditions (350 °C, 20 torr). Herein, we successfully established a high-resolution gravimetric sorption (HRGS) system in a flow through configuration that can measure sample mass changes with high resolution (1 µg or 10 µg) over long experiment times (days), high temperature, and varying pressures. We coupled this capability with an in-line universal gas analyzer (UGA) system to characterize potential surface chemistry side reactions occurring after contaminant gas exposure. The major findings of this study suggest that methane and CO have the most detrimental effects on getter H 2 uptake performance showing large changes in rate after exposure compared to CO 2 and water. The effect of these contaminant species did not influence getter sample capacity (~ 1.8 wt% H 2 ). After CO and methane exposure, changes in getter rate were accompanied by observable Ni-surface defects and pinholes via SEM imaging suggesting possible Ni- layer corrosion. Additionally, the increase in C and O signal in the zircaloy layer, observed via EDX, point to C and O species transport through the getter sample resulting in the formation of carbides and oxide species. Thus, co-exposure studies where mixed gases or water vapor are introduced together will be important to further understand what mechanisms are contributing to Ni-layer corrosion and changes in getter performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Radiation-Induced Chromium Redox Chemistry

The redox behavior of Cr(III) and Cr(VI) in nuclear environments were studied by analyzing aqueous irradiated chromium ions using UV-Visible spectroscopy. The formation of different chromium oxidation states can occur through gamma radiolysis of chromium solutions. Characterization of radiation-induced chromium is not well understood, and yet important as chromium can make its way into the primary coolant of reactors because of the corrosion of stainless steel reactor components. Furthermore, Cr(VI) is toxic and not suitable for environmental release, therefore Cr speciation is important. Fricke dosimetry was performed to collect doses rates, specific extinction coefficients were obtained from various analytical methods for the two oxidation states of chromium. Chromium samples--conditioned at various pH's and concentration to understand the effects--were then irradiated using a Coblat-60 gamma irradiator. Three optical spectroscopy analytical methods were used , including direct oxidation state measurements and complexation by either EDTA or DPC. Complexation by EDTA was found to not be a reliable method. Radiolytic oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI), and reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) were clearly seen, except for Cr(III) samples were a pH less than or equal to 2, where no change occurred.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

La-Based Perovskite Oxide Catalysts for Alkaline Oxygen Reduction: The Importance of Electrochemical Stability

Alkaline fuel cells represent a promising energy conversion technology since they enable the use of precious metal-free electrocatalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction. Among these, La-based perovskite oxides, with great compositional and structural tunability, are especially attractive. However, we believe that the current literature lacks a thorough understanding of their inherent (in)stability issues. Here, in this study, we report on nine La-based perovskite oxide electrocatalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction, including LaMO 3 (M = Mn, Co, Ni) and LaCo x M 1–x O 3 (M = Mn, Ni; x = 0.9, 0.5, 0.1). While some exhibited initial promising activity, they all degraded significantly, even after brief electrochemical testing. Through comprehensive structural characterization of LaCo 0.9 Mn 0.1 O 3 , particularly scanning transmission electron microscopy, we found evidence to support a degradation mechanism in which the B-site cation species irreversibly leach from the perovskite under testing conditions. A sample cycled 10 000 times from +0.4 to +1.2 V vs reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE) showed an amorphous La oxide shell 1–2 nm thick. Bulk analyses showed that B-site leaching also occurs for samples soaked in 1 M KOH or pure EtOH. The mechanistic insights provided here should help inform the future design of La-based perovskite oxide electrocatalysts for alkaline fuel cells and stress the importance of stability metrics validating claims of promising electrocatalytic activity.

Seok, Jeesoo↗
DOE OSTI2024

The effect of monitoring complexity on stakeholder acceptance of CO2 geological storage projects in the US gulf coast region

Environmental monitoring at geologic CO 2 storage sites is required by regulations for the purposes of environmental protection and emissions accounting in the case of leakage to surface. However, another very important goal of environmental monitoring is to assure stakeholders that the project is monitored for safety and effectiveness. With current efforts to optimize monitoring for cost-effectiveness, the question remains: will optimization of monitoring approaches degrade stakeholder assurance, or do heavily-instrumented sites communicate higher risk to a stakeholder? We report the results of a stakeholder survey in Gulf Coast states of the US where carbon capture and storage (CCS) is developing quickly. We rely on a 2 by 2 factorial experiment in which we manipulate message complexity (complex v. simple) and social norm (support from scientists v. support from community members). Subjects were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: 1) complex message with scientist support; 2) complex message with community member support; 3) simple message with scientist support; or 4) simple message with community member support. In addition to the experimental stimuli, subjects were also asked about their need for cognition, attitudes toward science and scientists, attitudes about climate change and support for carbon capture and storage (CCS). Our sample is drawn from residents in states bordering the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Florida) where CO 2 geologic storage is being planned both onshore and offshore. The results offer important implications for public outreach efforts to key stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rare earth element potential in coal and coal ash in the U.S. Gulf Coast

United States heavy reliance on imports of critical minerals (CMs), including rare earth elements (REEs), underscores the importance of development of domestic sources. The study objective was to quantify CM and REE concentrations in coal and coal ash in the US Gulf Coast region. CM and REE concentrations were measured for 118 samples from outcrops and 14 mines in the Gulf Coast. Results show that total REE + Yttrium (REY) concentrations (dry coal basis) are comparable to those of the upper continental crust (UCC) with localized hot spots, such as the Texas Gibbons Creek mine (REY ≤ ~ 2860 ppm). When normalized to UCC REY concentration (169 ppm, dry coal basis), REY to UCC ratios for Gulf Coast coal samples range from 0.1 to 17 (median ratio 0.6). REE extractability from lignites is high (median: 63%–93%) using environmentally benign weak acid. In addition to raw coal, coal ash from power plants could also serve as an REE source with a median ratio of REY in ash relative to coal of 4; however, extractability from coal ash is generally much lower (≤ 5% using the same weak acid as in coal). The median basket price for extracted REY as oxides from coal, assuming 70% extractability, is $\$3.2$ per tonne of coal and $\$186$ billion based on 58 billion metric tonnes of dry coal in the Gulf Coast. REEs important for magnets (Pr + Nd + Tb + Dy) account for ~ 80% of the total value. The corresponding median basket price for extracted REY as oxides from coal ash, assuming ~ 30% extractability, is ~$\$4.4$ per tonne of ash and $\$1.2$ billion based on 258 million tonnes of ash. REE production from coal would likely require co-products, such as activated carbon or humic acids, to attain economic viability. Production of REEs from coal ash could offset remediation costs related to potential water contamination. This reconnaissance study shows the potential for REE production from coal and coal ash in the Gulf Coast; however, carbon coproducts and/or societal benefits would likely be required for socioeconomic viability.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Isomeric Effects on Properties of Aviation Fuels via a Group Contribution Method: Preprint

The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗