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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural switches in behaviour rapidly modulate hippocampal coding

Throughout their daily lives, animals and humans often switch between different behaviours. However, neuroscience research typically studies the brain while the animal is performing one behavioural task at a time, and little is known about how brain circuits represent switches between different behaviours. Here we tested this question using an ethological setting: two bats flew together in a long 135 m tunnel, and switched between navigation when flying alone (solo) and collision avoidance as they flew past each other (cross-over). Bats increased their echolocation click rate before each cross-over, indicating attention to the other bat. Hippocampal CA1 neurons represented the bat’s own position when flying alone (place coding). Notably, during cross-overs, neurons switched rapidly to jointly represent the interbat distance by self-position. This neuronal switch was very fast—as fast as 100 ms—which could be revealed owing to the very rapid natural behavioural switch. The neuronal switch correlated with the attention signal, as indexed by echolocation. Interestingly, the different place fields of the same neuron often exhibited very different tuning to interbat distance, creating a complex non-separable coding of position by distance. Theoretical analysis showed that this complex representation yields more efficient coding. Overall, our results suggest that during dynamic natural behaviour, hippocampal neurons can rapidly switch their core computation to represent the relevant behavioural variables, supporting behavioural flexibility.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

matsim-agents v1.0

matsim-agents is a multi-agent AI framework for atomistic materials simulation and discovery. It orchestrates large language models (LLMs), machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs), and DFT codes into a single agentic loop running on laptops and DOE leadership-class supercomputers. MULTI-AGENT ORCHESTRATION A LangGraph state machine with three nodes: a Planner that converts a natural-language research objective into structured tasks; an Executor that dispatches atomistic tools and loops until the queue is empty; and an Analyst that summarizes results into a human-readable report. State is checkpointed after every step and human-in-the-loop gates can be inserted at any edge. HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN DISCOVERY CHAT An interactive REPL (matsim-agents chat) that couples LLM dialogue with atomistic simulation. Chemical formulas are automatically detected in conversation turns and trigger a full crystal-phase exploration: structure generation → relaxation → stability scoring → result injection back into the conversation, creating a closed hypothesis-refinement loop. CRYSTAL PHASE ENUMERATION Given a composition, the phase explorer enumerates prototypes by stoichiometry: elemental (fcc/bcc/hcp/sc/diamond), binary 1:1 (rocksalt/CsCl/zincblende/ wurtzite/fluorite/rutile), ternary 1:1:3 (cubic perovskite), ternary 1:2:4 (perovskite + spinel), quaternary 1:1:2:6 (Fm-3m double perovskite). 2-D prototypes (graphene, h-BN, MoS2 2H/1T) and multilayer stacking are also supported via --include-2d and --num-layers. SUPERCELL GENERATION AND SITE DECORATION Auto-tiling to a minimum atom count (--min-atoms), explicit NxNxN tiling (--supercell), symmetry-distinct site decorations (--n-orderings), and isotropic lattice-scale sweeps (--lattice-scales) for volume bracketing. MLFF RELAXATION AND STABILITY SCORING HydraGNN (multi-headed GNN) drives structure relaxation via ASE with FIRE, BFGS, or BFGSLineSearch. Stability output: delta-E/atom ranking across phases and a max-residual-force dynamical-stability proxy. Other MLIPs (MACE, NequIP, Orb) can be plugged in through the same interface. DFT BACKENDS Quantum ESPRESSO pw.x and VASP 6.6 are first-class labellers. Both have validated GPU builds and SLURM/PBS launchers for three DOE platforms: Frontier (AMD MI250X, ROCm), Aurora (Intel PVC, oneAPI), Perlmutter (NVIDIA A100, CUDA). QE produces ~100 binaries (pw.x, ph.x, epw.x, ...). VASP supports scf, relax, vc-relax, and vc-relax-shape run types. ACTIVE-LEARNING LOOP matsim-agents al run CONFIG.yaml drives an iterative HydraGNN-DFT loop: MD generates candidates → ensemble/MC-dropout uncertainty selects the most informative → DFT labels them in parallel inside one allocation → dataset grows → HydraGNN retrains → repeat. DFT backend is a single YAML toggle (dft.backend: vasp | qe). LLM-generated seed structures are supported (no curated POSCAR library needed). Config uses ${VAR}, ${VAR:-default}, ${VAR:?msg} shell-style substitution for cross-user/cross-site portability. LLM BACKENDS Ollama (local, default), vLLM (HPC multi-GPU serving), OpenAI, Anthropic, HuggingFace Transformers+Accelerate. Selected at runtime via flag or env var with no code changes. HPC PORTABILITY Same Python entry points run on Frontier (ROCm 7.2), Aurora (oneAPI), and Perlmutter (CUDA 12). DFT and ML stacks are never co-loaded in the same shell; they couple through the scheduler and filesystem. Advanced multi-node launchers (serve, discovery-chat, single-relaxation, active-learning, QE warm-start) are provided for all three platforms. CODABENCH COMPETITION BUNDLE A self-contained benchmark: 159 atomistic test structures across 11 material classes, 5 tasks (formation energy, forces, ML relaxation, AI-DFT relaxation, phase stability ranking), public/private leaderboard split (30/70), and four ready-to-run baselines: MACE-MP-0, HydraGNN, UMA, AllScAIP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [Oak Ridge National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2020

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Trichomonas vaginalis C2-XYPPX-repeat protein with a structured C2 domain displaying dampened flexibility upon binding calcium

C2 domains are ubiquitous membrane-binding modules of ∼130 residues in eukaryotes that are often associated with proteins involved in membrane trafficking and lipid modification. The genome of Trichomonas vaginalis, the most common, non-viral, sexually transmitted human pathogen, encodes eight genes that contain a N-terminal C2 module linked to a XYPPX-repeat domain of more than four XYPPX repeats (C2-XYPPX). While the function of the XYPPX-repeat domain remains unknown, its multiple association with C2 domains in T. vaginalis suggests it is important. Here, the C2 domain from one of these C2-XYPPX-repeat proteins, Tv-C2-1, was structurally and physically characterized using X-ray crystallography and NMR spectroscopy. The crystal structure for Tv-C2-1 shows that this domain shares a fold common to all C2 domains, a compact Greek-key motif composed of eight anti-parallel β-strands in the type-2 topology. An NMR chemical shift perturbation study with Ca 2+ showed that Tv-C2-1 bound two Ca 2+ atoms primarily via two loops (loop-1 and loop-3) on the predicted calcium binding face of the protein with K d s of 58.0 ± 0.1 μM and 232 ± 6 μM. Estimations of the overall rotational correlation time, τ c , in the apo (11.1 ns) and Ca 2+ -bound (9.2 ns) state suggests the protein becomes more compact upon Ca 2+ binding, consistent with a decrease in dynamics in loop-3 and marginally in loop-1 suggested by amide 15 N heteronuclear steady-state { 1 H}- 15 N NOEs. Showing Tv-C2-1 binds calcium and adopts a compact Greek-key motif structure, two primary features of C2 domains, suggests understanding the function of the XYPPX-repeat domain may be warranted.

NMR spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Varying Dark Energy on Future Large-Scale Structure Studies

The cosmos withholds multiple mysteries such as dark forms of matter and energy that are yet beyond human comprehension. In the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM, the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ is thought to be responsible for the late accelerated expansion of the Universe. However, recent results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) suggest the possibility of evolving dark energy, which warrants further exploration. Future surveys such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map the large-scale structure (LSS) with unprecedented precision, giving us valuable statistical information about the cosmos. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential impact of an evolving dark energy scenario on cosmological parameters constrained by LSS probes, as will be mapped by the LSST. For this, we examine the power spectra of lens galaxies, source galaxies, and cross-power spectra between lens galaxies and source galaxies. The combination of these statistics is commonly referred to as '3 $\times$ 2 points'. For this investigation, we created a set of simulations resembling LSST data and used them to perform cosmological parameter inference in two scenarios: one in which the simulated data is based on the fiducial model and another on evolving dark energy. We then examined the degeneracy between the cosmological parameters and checked for potential shifts in the parametric space when the data contains dynamical dark energy but the modeling assumes $\Lambda$CDM. Our findings indicate that mismodeling the dark energy equation of state can significantly impact parameter inference, particularly affecting the total matter density, $\Omega_m$, and the growth of structures, as represented by the $S_8$ parameter. These results highlight the importance of further exploring extensions of the $\Lambda$CDM model in future LSS studies.

Yaman Acharya, A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transcriptomic and functional analyses uncover a conserved effector driving genotype-dependent virulence in the Sphaerulina musiva-Populus trichocarpa interaction

The introduction of invasive microbes compromises the structure, biodiversity, and function of naïve ecosystems. Sphaerulina musiva, a hemibiotrophic pathogen that causes leaf spot and stem cankers in Populus species, exemplifies an invasive fungal pathogen spread by human activities. However, the genetic mechanisms of pathogenicity and virulence are poorly understood, impeding mitigation strategies. We utilized RNA sequencing to identify fungal effectors linked to stem canker formation, informing the development of future strategies for effective disease management. Our analysis revealed 70 genes differentially expressed at 2 weeks and 110 genes at 3 weeks between inoculated trees and controls. Notably, the gene with the highest expression at 2 weeks and the second highest at 3 weeks was homologous to Extracellular protein 2 (Ecp2). Complementary genome-wide association studies linked sequence polymorphisms in this locus to phenotypic variation in disease severity. Infiltration of S. musiva Ecp2 into Populus trichocarpa leaves induced necrosis in susceptible genotypes. Gene disruption using a CRISPR-Cas9 RNP system resulted in a genotype-dependent reduction of stem canker and disease severity. Tracing the evolutionary history of this effector across the fungal kingdom, we uncovered clade-specific gene-family expansions and orthologs in new species. These findings raise questions about the function and adaptive significance of these gene families in fungal lifestyles. Our study provides the first tractable target for breeding resistant poplar genotypes, addressing the challenges of managing S. musiva and uncovering mechanisms that drive its virulence, and provides deeper insights into the evolutionary dynamics of a conserved small-secreted protein with a diversity of functions.

Sondreli, Kelsey L [Oregon State University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrative SP3 Workflow for Multi-PTM Proteomics Profiling (TZ-DP0)

The goal of the experiment was to demonstrate that the optimized multiplexed multi-PTM profiling workflow can comprehensively and quantitatively capture dynamic changes in protein abundance, cysteine oxidation, phosphorylation, and acetylation in cytokine-induced inflammatory stress in mouse pancreatic ß-cells. Global proteomic, redox proteomic, phosphoproteomic, and acetylomic were data collected from mouse Beta-TC-6 pancreatic Beta-cells, untreated (mock) and cytokine-treated Beta-cells at 4, 8, and 24 hours with 4 biological replicates. Samples were digested with trypsin and Lys-C, then analyzed by LC-MS/MS. Data were searched with MS-GF+, MASIC, and MaxQuant using PNNL's DMS processing pipeline.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

City-Scale Building Anthropogenic Heating during Heat Waves

More frequent and longer duration heat waves have been observed worldwide and are recognized as a serious threat to human health and the stability of electrical grids. Past studies have identified a positive feedback between heat waves and urban heat island effects. Anthropogenic heat emissions from buildings have a crucial impact on the urban environment, and hence it is critical to understand the interactive effects of urban microclimate and building heat emissions in terms of the urban energy balance. Here we developed a coupled-simulation approach to quantify these effects, mapping urban environmental data generated by the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled to Urban Canopy Model (UCM) to urban building energy models (UBEM). We conducted a case study in the city of Los Angeles, California, during a five-day heat wave event in September 2009. We analyzed the surge in city-scale building heat emission and energy use during the extreme heat event. We first simulated the urban microclimate at a high resolution (500 m by 500 m) using WRF-UCM. We then generated grid-level building heat emission profiles and aggregated them using prototype building energy models informed by spatially disaggregated urban land use and urban building density data. The spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat discharge from the building sector were analyzed, and the quantitative relationship with weather conditions and urban land-use dynamics were assessed at the grid level. The simulation results indicate that the dispersion of anthropogenic heat from urban buildings to the urban environment increases by up to 20% on average and varies significantly, both in time and space, during the heat wave event. The heat dispersion from the air-conditioning heat rejection contributes most (86.5%) of the total waste heat from the buildings to the urban environment. We also found that the waste heat discharge in inland, dense urban districts is more sensitive to extreme events than it is in coastal or suburban areas. The generated anthropogenic heat profiles can be used in urban microclimate models to provide a more accurate estimation of urban air temperature rises during heat waves.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2023

Flammability and dispersion of tritium in confined release scenarios

Ignition of a flammable tritium-air mixture is the most probable means to produce the water form (T 2 O or HTO), which is more easily absorbed by living tissue and is hence ~10,000 times more hazardous to human health when uptake occurs compared to the gaseous form (T 2 or HT; per Mishima and Steele, 2002). Tritium-air mixtures with T 2 concentrations below 4 mol% are considered sub-flammable and will not readily convert to the more hazardous water form. It is therefore desirable from a safety perspective to understand the dispersion behavior of tritium under different release conditions, especially since tritium is often stored in quantities and pressures much lower than is typical for normal hydrogen. The formation of a flammable layer at the ceiling is a scenario of particular concern because the rate of dispersion to nonflammable conditions is slowest in this configuration, which maximizes the time window over which the flammable tritium may encounter an ignition source. This report describes the processes of buoyant rise and dispersion of tritium. Accumulation of flammable concentrations of tritium next to the ceiling is a common safety concern for hydrogen, but this situation can only occur if dispersion rates are slow with respect to rates of release and rise. Theory and simulations demonstrate that buoyancy does not cause regions with flammable concentrations to form within buildings from sources that have previously been mixed to sub-flammable concentrations. A simulated series of tritium release events with their associated dispersion behavior are reported herein; these simulations apply computational fluid dynamics to rooms with three different ceiling heights and a variety of tritium release rates. Safety related quantities from these simulations are reported, including the mass and volume of tritium occurring in a flammable mixture, the presence or absence of a flammable layer at the ceiling, and the time required for dispersion to nonflammable conditions after the end of the tritium release event. These safety metrics are influenced by the magnitude and rate of the tritium release with respect to the air volume in the room and also the momentum of the plume or jet with respect to the ceiling height. Several screening criteria are recommended to assess whether a specific tritium release scenario is likely to form a flammable layer at the ceiling. The methods and results in this modeling study have applicability to explosion safety analysis for other buoyant flammable gases, including the lighter isotopes of hydrogen.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cybersecurity for Distance Relay Protection

This project is a DOE follow-up effort on the CREDC workshop held on September 13, 2018 in Cambridge, MA to discuss cybersecurity of distance relays, which considered the benefits, vulnerabilities and risk mitigations for the use of communication systems in power system protection. The objectives of this project are to define the taxonomy of relay protection and associated communications; define use cases describing approaches to reduce the cyber-attack surface on those protective relays; and evaluate the loss of operational functional capability from changes to communication coverage. Mitigating controls will also be evaluated to understand if there are other approaches to reduce attack surfaces while maintaining communications or partial communications. Distance relays are used to protect transmission lines of approximately 10 to 300 miles in length, by detecting short circuits (i.e., faults) on the lines and then tripping circuit breakers in the substation. Such protection systems are a subset of the power system and they incorporate sensing, logic and communication functions. Protection system exposure to cyberattack could be drastically limited by disconnecting relays from all vulnerable communication systems, but this may adversely impact overall power system performance in the absence of cyberattack. This project began with a use case analysis of protection systems with communications, as summarized in this report. It continued with modeling, testing and evaluation in a miniature power system (MPS), located in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) Electric Power Training Center (EPTC). The project also incorporated feedback from two industry meetings held in February and September 2019. The suggested next steps account for and complement the work already underway with DOE/CESER funding: 1. Study the performance of LCD and PC vs. PUTT, which is less reliant on communication system performance and GPS timing references. The PUTT scheme could prove to be more resilient to cyberattack or communications-related disruption. It could also be more tolerant of message re-routing with SDN/SDR communication systems. On the other hand, it will be more vulnerable to false tripping during dynamic events or to loss of the voltage signal. The optimum choice of scheme may depend on the specific power system and risk assessment. This study could provide a new template for evaluation based on business functions. 2. Research and develop new methods to detect and monitor distributed physical attacks, possibly using drones, video sensors, thermal sensors, machine learning and other advanced techniques. This will help mitigate the impact of cyberattack on the protection system, and will also help mitigate the impact of wild fires. 3. Implement a scalable PKI for use in electric utility protection systems. This will encourage widespread adoption of secure authentication methods that are already available, but not widely used at present. This will help secure engineering access to the relays. 4. Investigate the use of SDN in combination with SDR to achieve better cybersecurity and electromagnetic security of the network, incorporating path variability. This would help secure both engineering access and peer-to-peer GOOSE messaging. 5. Perform additional testing, with operator evaluation of “red button” scenarios, PUTT vs. LCD, relay mis-operations, and other cyberattacks in the EPTC. This is an important advantage of testing in the EPTC rather than by computer simulation or even hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the EPTC is already dedicated to managing the situational awareness, operator response times and other human impacts. One of the project objectives was to settle on a common nomenclature for this problem space. We have concluded that the OSI layer model, supplemented by ANSI device numbers and other IEEE standards, is already well-accepted by the industry. The IEEE PSRC knowledge base provides a great deal of public information

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