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DOE OSTI2021

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical effects facilitate spreading processes on synthetic and empirical multilayer networks

In this paper we consider the effects of corporate hierarchies on innovation spread across multilayer networks, modeled by an elaborated SIR framework. We show that the addition of management layers can significantly improve spreading processes on both random geometric graphs and empirical corporate networks. Additionally, we show that utilizing a more centralized working relationship network rather than a strict administrative network further increases overall innovation reach. In fact, this more centralized structure in conjunction with management layers is essential to both reaching a plurality of nodes and creating a stable adopted community in the long time horizon. Further, we show that the selection of seed nodes affects the final stability of the adopted community, and while the most influential nodes often produce the highest peak adoption, this is not always the case. In some circumstances, seeding nodes near but not in the highest positions in the graph produces larger peak adoption and more stable long-time adoption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A QUBO formulation for top-τ eigencentrality nodes

The efficient calculation of the centrality or “hierarchy” of nodes in a network has gained great relevance in recent years due to the generation of large amounts of data. The eigenvector centrality (aka eigencentrality) is quickly becoming a good metric for centrality due to both its simplicity and fidelity. In this work we lay the foundations for solving the eigencentrality problem of ranking the importance of the nodes of a network with scores from the eigenvector of the network, using quantum computational paradigms such as quantum annealing and gate-based quantum computing. The problem is reformulated as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) that can be solved on both quantum architectures. The results focus on correctly identifying a given number of the most important nodes in numerous networks given by the sparse vector solution of our QUBO formulation of the problem of identifying the top- τ highest eigencentrality nodes in a network on both the D-Wave and IBM quantum computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atomic-level mechanisms of short-circuit diffusion in materials

This paper reviews the recent progress in understanding the atomic mechanisms of short-circuit diffusion along materials interfaces, such as grain and interphase boundaries, as well as lattice and interfacial dislocations/disconnections. Recent atomistic computer simulations have shown that short-circuit diffusion is dominated by collective atomic rearrangements in the form of strings and rings of mobile atoms. The process is dynamically heterogeneous in space and time and has many features in common with atomic dynamics in supercooled glass-forming liquids. We discuss examples of grain boundary, interphase boundary, and dislocation diffusion in metals and alloys, including the solute effect on the diffusion rates and mechanisms. Interphase boundaries are exemplified by Al–Si interfaces with diverse orientation relationships and atomic structures. The hierarchy of short-circuit diffusion paths in materials is reviewed by comparing the rates of grain boundary, interphase boundary, and dislocation diffusion. Future directions in the field of short-circuit diffusion in defect core regions are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

ESS-DIVE Reporting Format for Location Metadata

The ESS-DIVE location metadata reporting format provides instructions and templates for reporting a minimum set of metadata for discrete point locations in geographic space represented by x, y, and z coordinates. This format was created based on a need for earth and environmental science researchers to more consistently provide metadata about locations where they conduct studies. To create the format, we incorporated elements from ESS-DIVE’s community reporting formats as well as 12 additional data standards or other data resources (e.g., databases, data systems, or repositories). In the template, we ask researchers to indicate unique locations using Location IDs and indicate hierarchies of locations through parent location IDs. We also provide additional optional fields for researchers to indicate how they measured the point location and the date and time that the location was first used as a research siteThis dataset contains support documentation for the reporting format (README.md and instructions.md), a terminology guide (guide.md), a crosswalk indicating how this reporting format relates to existing standards and data resources (Location_metadata_crosswalk.csv), a data dictionary (dd.csv), file-level metadata (flmd.csv), and the location metadata templates in both CSV (Location_metadata_template.csv) and Excel formats (Location_metadata_template.xlsx).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing convergence in global sensitivity analysis: a review of methods for assessing and monitoring convergence

In global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a model, a proper convergence analysis of metrics is essential for ensuring a level of confidence or trustworthiness in sensitivity results obtained, yet is somewhat deficient in practice. The level of confidence in sensitivity measures, particularly in relation to their influence and support for decisions from scientific, social and policy perspectives, is heavily reliant on the convergence of GSA. We review the literature and summarize the available methods for monitoring and assessing convergence of sensitivity measures based on application purposes. The aim is to expose the various choices for convergence assessment and encourage further testing of available methods to clarify their level of robustness. Furthermore, the review identifies a pressing need for comparative studies on convergence assessment methods to establish a clear hierarchy of effectiveness and encourages the adoption of systematic approaches for enhanced robustness in sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Downtime Sources in CEBAF SRF Linac Systems for Improving Its Reliability

In this work, we will present some recent analysis of the reliability statistics of the CEBAF SRF linac systems. Based on the data collected by the existing Down Time Manager (DTM), the year-to-year downtime evolution trend of linac zones over the six-year period from FY18 to FY23 is established. An in-depth downtime analysis at a resolution beyond the linac zone level was carried out by introducing a new system hierarchy, consisting of the SRF linac sub-systems and components. This new paradigm was implemented in a pilot downtime study over the two-month period of CEBAF operation from 9/13/23 to 11/13/23, enabling localization of the responsible sub-systems (SRF, HPRF, LLRF, Beamline vacuum, Cryogenics, etc.) and hardware components (cavity, tuner, RF coupler, etc.) in the CEBAF SRF linac systems. Pinpointing downtime sources over long operation periods at the sub-systems and component levels holds the key to improving the CEBAF SRF systems reliability. It also helps identify areas of SRF technology development needed by future high-power high-reliability CW SRF linacs.

Hryhorenko, Oleksandr↗

DOE OSTI2020

What's in a Name? Developing a Standardized Taxonomy for HVAC System Faults

Faults occurring in heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems have significantly negative impacts on building energy consumption, occupant comfort, and indoor air quality. In the past thirty years, extensive research has been conducted on fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) methods, and there are now dozens of commercially available FDD software tools. Growing adoption of FDD tools has the potential to generate a massive and useful data set on fault characteristics. However, the lack of a unifying taxonomy is a significant barrier to efficient analysis and evaluation of FDD outputs. Therefore, there is a strong need to develop a robust taxonomy which can better represent and interpret FDD output data. This paper documents the development of a unifying taxonomy for HVAC system faults in commercial buildings, with initial focus on air handling units, variable air volume terminal units, and roof top unit systems. The developed fault taxonomy employs both a physical hierarchy of HVAC equipment and a cause-effect relationship model as tools to better understand and support root cause analysis for HVAC faults. A variable air volume terminal unit is used as an example to demonstrate the application of the developed fault taxonomy. The taxonomy has short-term application in a major U.S. study on fault prevalence, and promises longer term benefits to FDD software developers and building operators by creating a foundation for improved approaches to identifying and resolving HVAC faults.

Chen, Yimin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Functional, Hierarchical Colloidal Liquid Crystal Gels and Liquid Crystal Elastomers Nanocomposites. Final Report

Biological systems rely on a hierarchy of dynamic, complex and reconfigurable compartments to carry out functions essential for life. This hierarchical organization serves as an amplifier that allows highly localized, molecular events to propagate into the mesoscale, resulting in dynamic functional properties of biological systems that have not yet been fully realized in synthetic material designs. We pursued a program of research in which we recreated such principles using synthetic liquid crystals (LC) as a versatile platform. We elucidated new hierarchical design strategies that heavily leverage surface anchoring, coexisting phases and interfacial tension gradient to realize equilibrium and non-equilibrium, dynamic mesoscale phenomena in the context of micrometer-sized LC droplets containing multiple compartments. Specifically, we unmasked how equilibrium and dynamical phenomena emerged from hierarchical organizations in reconfigurable, thermotropic liquid crystalline assemblies. The long-term impact of the project is to advance new hierarchical designs of complex soft matter systems in which biomimetic principles, including the propagation of events or information over multiple temporal and spatial scales, are enacted in a facile manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the U.S.: Methods, Data and Key Trends

This report describes a comprehensive system of energy intensity indicators for the United States that has been developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) over the past decade. This system of indicators is hierarchical in nature, beginning with detailed indexes of energy intensity for various sectors of the economy, which are ultimately aggregated to an overall energy intensity index for the economy as a whole. The aggregation of energy intensity indexes to higher levels in the hierarchy is performed with a version of the Log Mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Based upon the data and methods in the system of indicators, the economy-wide energy intensity index shows a decline of about 16% in 2014 relative to a 1985 base year. Discussion of energy intensity indicators for each of the broad end-use sectors of the economy—residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation—is presented in the report. An analysis of recent changes in the efficiency of electricity generation in the U.S. is also included. A detailed appendix describes the data sources and methodology behind the energy intensity indicators for each sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the U.S.: Methods, Data and Key Trends

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Oscillation Results from the NOvA Experiment

Conclusions: We present an updated neutrino oscillation analysis with: 50% more neutrino beam data, updated simulation and reconstruction, including a new GENIE 3 cross-section model, updated extrapolation which mitigates differing detector acceptances. New 3-Jlavor oscillation results: Δm²₃₂ = (2.41±0.07)×10⁻³ eV², sin²θ₂₃ = 0.57 +0.04 -0.03 , exclude IH, δ = π/2 at > 3σ, disfavor NH, δ = 3π/2 at ~2σ. Looking ahead: We can reach 3σ hierarchy sensitivity for 30-50% of δ values, with the full dataset and an upgraded beam. Plan to reduce our largest systematics, those related to detector energy scale, with the results of our test beam experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

DUNE’s Potential to Search for Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay

Neutrinoless double beta decay is a forbidden process by the standard model due to a violation of lepton number and could be piece of the matter/anti-matter asymmetry puzzle. Its rarity makes it very difficult to search for, but if found could aid in figuring out the mass hierarchy. The idea is to take advantage of DUNE's size and capabilities to attempt to detect the decay by doping the liquid argon with Xenon, a candidate isotope for this decay. Thus, we need to know whether this search is feasible within DUNE’s framework

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Center of Excellence Collaboration Projects: Second Wave

The NEAMS program aims to develop an integrated multi-physics simulation capability “pellet-to-plant” for the design and analysis of future generations of nuclear power plants. In particular, the Reactor Product Line code suite's multi-resolution hierarchy is being designed to ultimately span the full range of length and time scales present in relevant reactor design and safety analyses, as well as scale from desktop to petaflop computing platforms. In particular the NEAMS program is supporting the development of novel thermal-hydraulic codes. The Center of Excellence for Thermal Fluids Application in Nuclear Energy, launched in 2018, has as its key goals to serve as a front door to industry. The Center of Excellence for Thermal Fluids Applications in Nuclear Energy has recently launched a program to start collaborative efforts between the laboratories and industry with the objective of stimulating cooperation and increasing adoption of T/H tools developed under NEAMS by the industry-at-large. In particular, two industry partners agreed to participate in a second wave of short-term collaborations aimed at demonstrating the value of NEAMS tools to their designs. These are Framatome and TerraPower who proposed projects related to LWR (Light Water Reactor) and MSFR (Molten Salt Fast Reactor) designs respectively. In this report we present the results of these two collaborations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Analysis of Traditional and Data-Parallel Primitive Implementations of Visualization and Analysis Kernels

Measurements of absolute runtime are useful as a summary of performance when studying parallel visualization and analysis methods on computational platforms of increasing concurrency and complexity. We can obtain even more insights by measuring and examining more detailed measures from hardware performance counters, such as the number of instructions executed by an algorithm implemented in a particular way, the amount of data moved to/from memory, memory hierarchy utilization levels via cache hit/miss ratios, and so forth. This work focuses on performance analysis on modern multi-core platforms of three different visualization and analysis kernels that are implemented in different ways: one is "traditional", using combinations of C++ and VTK, and the other uses a data-parallel approach using VTK-m. Our performance study consists of measurement and reporting of several different hardware performance counters on two different multi-core CPU platforms. The results reveal interesting performance differences between these two different approaches for implementing these kernels, results that would not be apparent using runtime as the only metric.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Two new SciDAC institutes promote mathematical tools and software technology for high-performance computing

Bigger is often said to be better, and the newest extreme-scale computers certainly are bigger, with millions of processing units. Moreover, the breadth of science performed on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) computing facilities is expanding, with new technology such as artificial intelligence emerging. These advances are exciting, creating new opportunities for scientific discovery; however, they also raise new questions for scientists who want to exploit these advances for tackling more complex problems. Will my simulation code be able to utilize the accelerators in extreme-scale computing systems? Can I take advantage of the deepening memory hierarchy in heterogeneous processors? Is there a way around bottlenecks caused by the widening ratio of peak floating-point operations per second to I/0 bandwidth? How can I manage my huge amounts of data effectively? Can I analyze data in situ, or must I transfer it to offline storage for later analysis? To address such questions, DOE announced that it is providing $57.5 million over the next five years for two multidisciplinary teams — FASTMath and RAPIDS2 — to develop new tools and techniques to harness supercomputers for scientific discovery. The teams, called SciDAC Institutes, are part of the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗