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DOE OSTI2025

Aggregated DER_A Model Parameterization via Online Moving Horizon Estimation

Here, this paper introduces a methodology for parameterizing the DER_A model using a novel smooth mathematical representation, simplifying the process and preserving accuracy in modeling inverter-based generator (IBG). The methodology employs an online parameterization process that can operate in real-time. The model parameterization process is structured into five sequential steps, each targeting a specific aspect of the DER_A model through moving horizon estimation. This approach adapts to systems with varying voltage and frequency support requirements by selectively applying each step. Simulation results on systems with both known and unknown parameters validate the methodology’s effectiveness. The online moving horizon estimation technique accurately captures the dynamics of the overall system and ensures that the parameterized DER_A model closely mirrors the real system’s voltage, current, and power dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of this methodology to substantially improve and simplify the dynamic modeling of power systems, paving the way for more reliable and robust IBG and grid integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1983

SAR calibration: A technology review

Various potential applications of amplitude-calibrated SAR systems are briefly described, along with an estimate of calibration performance requirements. A review of the basic SAR calibration problem is given. For background purposes and to establish consistent definition of terms, various conventional SAR performance parameters are reviewed along with three additional parameters which are directly related to calibrated SAR systems. Techniques for calibrating a SAR are described. Included in the results presented are: calibration philosophy and procedures; review of the calibration signal generator technology development with results describing both the development of instrumentation and internal calibration measurements for two SAR systems; summary of analysis and measurements required to determine optimum retroreflector design and configuration for use as a reference for the absolute calibration of a SAR system; and summary of techniques for in-flight measurements of SAR antenna response.

Larson, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the era of structure formation in the early universe. Previous research in this field has been limited to calculating merger rates of MBHs using different models where many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span 5 to 6 orders of magnitude. We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters involved in the mergers. which we then turn around to determine how well LISA observations will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (masses, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers.

Alicea-Munoz, Emily↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of the One-point Method for Estimating Carboxylation Capacity, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and Upton, New York, 2018

The maximum carboxylation efficiency of Rubisco (Vc,max) fitted from CO2 response curves and estimated from light-saturated photosynthesis using the one-point method. Data were collected in Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK and New York in 2018 on 6 species - Arctagrostis latifolia, Helianthus annuus, Populus canadensis, Phaseolus vulgaris, Quercus coccinea, Raphanus sativus. These data were used to compare fitted with estimated values of Vc,max to test the efficacy of the one-point method. Arctic data were used alongside temperate data for an evaluation of one-point gas exchange methodology, supported in part by NGEE Arctic. This dataset is comprised of fitted parameter values and raw gas exchange data files and metadata files in csv format. File formats have been updated from the original publication on the NGEE-Arctic archive, but the data has not been modified. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aboveground Biomass Estimation Using NISAR Simulated ALOS-2 Time Series Data

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a critical parameter to better understand the global carbon cycle and to develop sustainable forest management. However, a large uncertainty prevails. L-band SAR data have demonstrated strong potential to accurately retrieve AGB over low-biomass regions (<100 Mg ha-1). The upcoming NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar mission will collect data at L- and S-band over earth’s landmass with a repeat period of 12 days, allowing us to have ample data for monitoring biomass and its dynamics. One of the key science requirements of the mission is to produce annual AGB maps at 1-ha resolution with RMS accuracy of 20 Mg/ha for 80 percentage of area over low-biomass regions in Calibration/Validation sites. The NISAR biomass algorithm will generate AGB maps based on the parameterization of semi-empirical model along with NISAR time-series dual pol data (HH and HV). To calibrate and validate the model for mission requirements, the mission will use reference estimates of AGB produced from ground inventory plots and airborne LiDAR data collected over selected sites distributed across different global ecoregions. This paper presents the initial results of the calibration/validation of the NISAR AGB retrieval algorithm over the Lenoir Landing (LENO), Alabama, USA site using NISAR simulated ALOS-2 time series data. Five multi-temporal dual-pol HH and HV NISAR Simulated ALOS 2 data collections were used as input to assess the performance of the model. The model AGB retrieval results shows that the NISAR model was able to achieve RMS accuracy within 20 Mg/ha.

Ramachandran, Naveen [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, C↗

NASA NTRS1996

Optimal Estimation of Rain-Rate Profiles from Single-Frequency Radar Echoes

The significant ambiguities inherent in the determination of a particular vertical rain intensity profile from a given time profile of radar echo powers measured by a downward-looking (spaceborne or airborne) radar at a single attenuating frequency are well documented. Indeed, one already knows that by appropriately varying the parameters of the reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and/or attenuation-rain rate (k- R) relationships one can produce several substantially different rain-rate profiles that would produce the same radar power profile. Imposing the additional constraint that the path-averaged rain rate be a given fixed number does reduce the ambiguities but falls far short of eliminating them. While formulas to generate all mutually ambiguous rain-rate profiles from a given profile of received radar reflectivities have already been derived, there remains to be produced a quantitative measure to assess how likely each of these profiles is, what the appropriate "average" profile should be, and what the "variance" of these multiple solutions is. To do this, one needs to spell out the stochastic constraints that can allow us to make sense of the words "average" and "variance" in a mathematically rigorous way. Such a quantitative approach would be particularly well suited for such systems as the planned precipitation radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Indeed, one would then be able to use the radar reflectivities measured by the TRMM radar to estimate the rain-rate profile that would most likely have produced the measurements, as well as the uncertainty in the estimated rain rates as a function of range. Such an optimal approach is described in this paper.

Haddad, Ziad S.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Directed Self-Assembly of Polystyrene- b -poly(propylene carbonate) on Chemical Patterns via Thermal Annealing for Next Generation Lithography

Directed self-assembly (DSA) of block copolymers (BCPs) combines advantages of conventional photolithography and polymeric materials and shows competence in semiconductors and data storage applications. Driven by the more integrated, much smaller and higher performance of the electronics, however, the industry standard polystyrene-block-poly(methyl methacrylate) (PS-b-PMM.A) in DSA strategy cannot meet the rapid development of lithography technology because its intrinsic limited Flory-Huggins interaction parameter (chi). Despite hundreds of block copolymers have been developed, these BCPs systems are usually subject to a trade-off between high chi and thermal treatment, resulting in incompatibility with the current nanomanufacturing fab processes. Here we discover that polystyrene-b-poly(propylene carbonate) (PS-b-PPC) is well qualified to fill key positions on DSA strategy for the next-generation lithography. The estimated chi-value for PS-b-PPC is 0.079, that is, two times greater than PS-b-PMMA (chi = 0.029 at 150 degrees C), while processing the ability to form perpendicular sub-10 nm morphologies (cylinder and lamellae) via the industry preferred thermal-treatment. DSA of lamellae forming PS-b-PPC on chemoepitaxial density multiplication demonstrates successful sub-10 nm long-range order features on large-area patterning for nanofabrication. Pattern transfer to the silicon substrate through industrial sequential infiltration synthesis is also implemented successfully. Compared with the previously reported methods to orientation control BCPs with high chi-value (including solvent annealing, neutral top-coats, and chemical modification), the easy preparation, high chi value, and etch selectivity while enduring thermal treatment demonstrates PS-b-PPC as a rare and valuable candidate for advancing the field of nanolithography.

Yang, Guan-Wen↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRS1982

Supervision of dynamic systems: Monitoring, decision-making and control

Effects of task variables on the performance of the human supervisor by means of modelling techniques are discussed. The task variables considered are: The dynamics of the system, the task to be performed, the environmental disturbances and the observation noise. A relationship between task variables and parameters of a supervisory model is assumed. The model consists of three parts: (1) The observer part is thought to be a full order optimal observer, (2) the decision-making part is stated as a set of decision rules, and (3) the controller part is given by a control law. The observer part generates, on the basis of the system output and the control actions, an estimate of the state of the system and its associated variance. The outputs of the observer part are then used by the decision-making part to determine the instants in time of the observation actions on the one hand and the controls actions on the other. The controller part makes use of the estimated state to derive the amplitude(s) of the control action(s).

White, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A review and summary of cell and module mismatch losses from theoretical and experimental studies

Studies on power loss due to photovoltaic (PV) cell and module parameter mismatch were reviewed. The losses result from the current voltage (I-V) characteristics of cells which vary over a manufactured lot. The peak power and the peak power I-V point vary from cell to cell. The largest parameter variation occurs in the cell photocurrent generation and the most significant loss occurs in series connections since all cells are essentially limited by the lowest photocurrent. Most theoretical studies address only photocurrent variation effects, which consider shunt and series resistance, ideality factor and saturation current to be comparatively insignificant. One study is identified which specifically configured the study of mismatch loss effects. Experimental results consist of estimates based on limited data not taken from specially configured tests.

Lambarski, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Computer program for analysis of high speed, single row, angular contact, spherical roller bearing, SASHBEAN. Volume 1: User's guide

The computer program SASHBEAN (Sikorsky Aircraft Spherical Roller High Speed Bearing Analysis) analyzes and predicts the operating characteristics of a Single Row, Angular Contact, Spherical Roller Bearing (SRACSRB). The program runs on an IBM or IBM compatible personal computer, and for a given set of input data analyzes the bearing design for it's ring deflections (axial and radial), roller deflections, contact areas and stresses, induced axial thrust, rolling element and cage rotation speeds, lubrication parameters, fatigue lives, and amount of heat generated in the bearing. The dynamic loading of rollers due to centrifugal forces and gyroscopic moments, which becomes quite significant at high speeds, is fully considered in this analysis. For a known application and it's parameters, the program is also capable of performing steady-state and time-transient thermal analyses of the bearing system. The steady-state analysis capability allows the user to estimate the expected steady-state temperature map in and around the bearing under normal operating conditions. On the other hand, the transient analysis feature provides the user a means to simulate the 'lost lubricant' condition and predict a time-temperature history of various critical points in the system. The bearing's 'time-to-failure' estimate may also be made from this (transient) analysis by considering the bearing as failed when a certain temperature limit is reached in the bearing components. The program is fully interactive and allows the user to get started and access most of its features with a minimal of training. For the most part, the program is menu driven, and adequate help messages were provided to guide a new user through various menu options and data input screens. All input data, both for mechanical and thermal analyses, are read through graphical input screens, thereby eliminating any need of a separate text editor/word processor to edit/create data files. Provision is also available to select and view the contents of output files on the monitor screen if no paper printouts are required. A separate volume (Volume-2) of this documentation describes, in detail, the underlying mathematical formulations, assumptions, and solution algorithms of this program.

Aggarwal, Arun K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Blocking reduction of Landsat Thematic Mapper JPEG browse images using optimal PSNR estimated spectra adaptive postfiltering

Two representative sample images of Band 4 of the Landsat Thematic Mapper are compressed with the JPEG algorithm at 8:1, 16:1 and 24:1 Compression Ratios for experimental browsing purposes. We then apply the Optimal PSNR Estimated Spectra Adaptive Postfiltering (ESAP) algorithm to reduce the DCT blocking distortion. ESAP reduces the blocking distortion while preserving most of the image's edge information by adaptively postfiltering the decoded image using the block's spectral information already obtainable from each block's DCT coefficients. The algorithm iteratively applied a one dimensional log-sigmoid weighting function to the separable interpolated local block estimated spectra of the decoded image until it converges to the optimal PSNR with respect to the original using a 2-D steepest ascent search. Convergence is obtained in a few iterations for integer parameters. The optimal logsig parameters are transmitted to the decoder as a negligible byte of overhead data. A unique maxima is guaranteed due to the 2-D asymptotic exponential overshoot shape of the surface generated by the algorithm. ESAP is based on a DFT analysis of the DCT basis functions. It is implemented with pixel-by-pixel spatially adaptive separable FIR postfilters. PSNR objective improvements between 0.4 to 0.8 dB are shown together with their corresponding optimal PSNR adaptive postfiltered images.

Linares, Irving↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust Adaptive Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation with Unknown Control Inputs using Field PMU Measurements

This paper proposes a robust adaptive decentralized dynamic state estimation method for power system with unknown inputs of the highly detailed synchronous machine model. The temporal and spatial correlations among the unknown inputs are used to derive a vector auto-regressive model. The latter is further integrated together with state transition and measurement models for joint state and unknown inputs estimation. Thanks to the consideration of implicit cross-correlations between the states and the unknown inputs, only generator terminal voltage and current phasors are needed. Test results on the US WECC system using the field PMU measurements show that the proposed method is able to track both the system dynamic states and unknown controller inputs. These information could significantly benefit the validation and calibration of generator controller parameters.

Zhao, Junbo↗

DOE OSTI2015

Improved Sampling Algorithms in the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

The RISMC approach is developing advanced set of methodologies and algorithms in order to perform Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs). In contrast to classical PRA methods, which are based on Event-Tree and Fault-Tree methods, the RISMC approach largely employs system simulator codes applied to stochastic analysis tools. The basic idea is to randomly perturb (by employing sampling algorithms) timing and sequencing of events and internal parameters of the system codes (i.e., uncertain parameters) in order to estimate stochastic parameters such as core damage probability. This approach applied to complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires to perform a series of computationally expensive simulation runs given a large set of uncertain parameters. These types of analysis are affected by two issues. Firstly, the space of the possible solutions (a.k.a., the issue space or the response surface) can be sampled only very sparsely, and this precludes the ability to fully analyze the impact of uncertainties on the system dynamics. Secondly, large amounts of data are generated and tools to generate knowledge from such data sets are not yet available. This report focuses on the first issue and in particular employs novel methods that optimize the information generated by the sampling process by sampling unexplored and risk-significant regions of the issue space: adaptive (smart) sampling algorithms. They infer system response from surrogate models constructed from existing samples and predict the most relevant location of the next sample. It is therefore possible to understand features of the issue space with a small number of carefully selected samples. In this report, we will present how it is possible to perform adaptive sampling using the RISMC toolkit and highlight the advantages compared to more classical sampling approaches such Monte-Carlo. We will employ RAVEN to perform such statistical analyses using both analytical cases but also another RISMC code: RELAP-7.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Specific features of the radial distributions of plasma parameters in the initial segment of a supersonic jet generated by a pulsed capillary discharge

Results are presented from spectroscopic studies of the initial segment of a supersonic plasma jet generated by a pulsed capillary discharge with an ablative carbon-containing polymer wall. Specific features of the spatial distributions of the electron density and intensities of spectral components caused, in particular, by the high electron temperature in the central zone, much exceeding the normal temperature, as well as by the high nonisobaricity of the initial segment of the supersonic jet, are revealed. Measurements of the radiative properties of the hot jet core (the intensity and profile of the H{sub α} and H{sub β} Balmer lines and the relative intensities of C II lines) with high temporal (1–50 μs) and spatial (30–50 μm) resolutions made it possible to determine general features of the pressure and temperature distributions near the central shock. The presence of molecular components exhibiting their emission properties at the periphery of the plasma jet allowed the authors to estimate the parameters of the plasma in the jet region where “detached” shock waves form.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Selection of high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies from broadband and wide photometric surveys

Here, in this paper, we investigate the possibility of selecting high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies (LBG) using current and future broadband wide photometric surveys, such as the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS) or the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), using a Random Forest algorithm. This work is conducted in the context of future large-scale structure spectroscopic surveys like DESI-II, the next phase of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which will start around 2029. We use deep imaging data from the Hyper Suprime Camera (HSC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Large Area U-band Deep Survey (CLAUDS) on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. To predict the selection performance of LBGs with image quality similar to UNIONS, we degrade the u,g,r,i and z bands to UNIONS depth. The Random Forest algorithm is trained with the u,g,r,i and z bands to classify LBGs in the 2.5 < z < 3.5 range. We find that fixing a target density budget of 1,100 deg -2 , the Random Forest approach gives a density of z > 2 targets of 873 deg -2 , and a density of 493 deg -2 of confirmed LBGs after spectroscopic confirmation with DESI. This UNIONS-like selection was tested in a dedicated spectroscopic observation campaign of 1,000 targets with DESI on the COSMOS field, providing a safe spectroscopic sample with a mean redshift of 3. This sample is used to derive forecasts for DESI-II, assuming a sky coverage of 5,000 deg 2 . We predict uncertainties on Alcock-Paczynski parameters α ⊥ and α ∥ to be 0.7% and 1% for 2.6 < z < 3.2, resulting in a potential 2% measurement of the dark energy fraction at high redshift. Additionally, we estimate the uncertainty in local non-Gaussianity and predict σ fNL ≈ 7, which would be comparable to the current best precision achieved by Planck. The latter forecast suggests that achieving the precision required to place stringent constraints on inflationary models (σ fNL ≈ 1) using spectroscopic galaxy surveys necessitates the development of a next-generation (Stage V) spectroscopic survey.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Simulations of Brady's-Type Fault Undergoing CO2 Push-Pull: Pressure-Transient and Sensitivity Analysis

Input and output files used for fault characterization through numerical simulation using iTOUGH2. The synthetic data for the push period are generated by running a forward simulation (input parameters are provided in iTOUGH2 Brady GF6 Input Parameters.txt [InvExt6i.txt]). In general, the permeability of the fault gouge, damage zone, and matrix are assumed to be unknown. The input and output files are for the inversion scenario where only pressure transients are available at the monitoring well located 200 m above the injection well and only the fault gouge permeability is estimated. The input files are named InvExt6i, INPUT.tpl, FOFT.ins, CO2TAB, and the output files are InvExt6i.out, pest.fof, and pest.sav (names below are display names). The table graphic in the data files below summarizes the inversion results, and indicates the fault gouge permeability can be estimated even if imperfect guesses are used for matrix and damage zone permeabilities, and permeability anisotropy is not taken into account.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1986

System engineering study of electrodynamic tether as a spaceborne generator and radiator of electromagnetic waves in the ULF/ELF frequency band

The transmission and generation by orbiting tethered satellite systems of information carrying electromagnetic waves in the ULF/ELF frequency band to the Earth at suitably high signal intensities was examined and the system maintaining these intensities in their orbits for long periods of time without excessive onboard power requirements was investigated. The injection quantity power into electromagnetic waves as a function of system parameters such as tether length and orbital height was estimated. The basic equations needed to evaluate alternataing current tethered systems for external energy requirements are presented. The energy equations to tethered systems with various lengths, tether resistances, and radiation resistances, operating at different current values are applied. Radiation resistance as a function of tether length and orbital height is discussed. It is found that ULF/ELF continuously radiating systems could be maintained in orbit with moderate power requirements. The effect of tether length on the power going into electromagnetic waves and whether a single or dual tether system is preferable for the self-driven mode is discussed. It is concluded that the single tether system is preferable over the dual system.

Estes, R. D.↗