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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Binary Classification via Accuracy Gain

ABSTRACT Recently, a surge of interest has been given to quantifying epistemic uncertainty (EU), the reducible portion of uncertainty due to lack of data. We propose a novel EU estimator in the binary classification setting, as the posterior expected value of the empirical gain in accuracy between the current prediction and the optimal prediction. In order to validate the performance of our EU estimator, we introduce an experimental procedure where we take an existing dataset, remove a set of points, and compare the estimated EU with the observed change in accuracy. Through real and simulated data experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EU estimator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data

The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. Here, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A causal data fusion method for the general exposure and outcome

Abstract With the advent of the big data era, the need to combine multiple individual data sets to draw causal effects arises naturally in many medical and biological applications. Especially each data set cannot measure enough confounders to infer the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this article, we extend the method proposed by a previous study to causal data fusion of more than two data sets without external validation and to a more general (continuous or discrete) exposure and outcome. Theoretically, we obtain the condition for identifiability of exposure effects using multiple individual data sources for the continuous or discrete exposure and outcome. The simulation results show that our proposed causal data fusion method has unbiased causal effect estimate and higher precision than traditional regression, meta‐analysis and statistical matching methods. We further apply our method to study the causal effect of BMI on glucose level in individuals with diabetes by combining two data sets. Our method is essential for causal data fusion and provides important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merging multiple individual data sources.

Li, Hongkai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and Development of Stable Nanocrystalline High‐Entropy Alloy: Coupling Self‐Stabilization and Solute Grain Boundary Segregation Effects

Abstract Grain growth is prevalent in nanocrystalline (NC) materials at low homologous temperatures. Solute element addition is used to offset excess energy that drives coarsening at grain boundaries (GBs), albeit mostly for simple binary alloys. This thermodynamic approach is considered complicated in multi‐component alloy systems due to complex pairwise interactions among alloying elements. Guided by empirical and GB‐segregation enthalpy considerations for binary‐alloy systems, a novel alloy design strategy, the “ pseudo‐binary thermodynamic ” approach, for stabilizing NC‐high entropy alloys (HEAs) and other multi‐component‐alloy variants is proposed. Using Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 as a model‐HEA to validate this approach, Zr, Sc, and Hf, are identified as the preferred solutes that would segregate to HEA‐GBs to stabilize it against growth. Using Zr, NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 HEAs with minor additions of Zr are synthesized, followed by annealing up to 1123 K. Using advanced characterization techniques— in situ X‐ray diffraction (XRD), scanning/transmission electron microscopy (S/TEM), and atom probe tomography, nanograin stability due to coupling self‐stabilization and solute‐GB segregation effects is reported in HEAs up to substantially high temperatures. The self‐stabilization effect originates from the preferential GB‐segregation of constituent HEA‐elements that stabilizes NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 up to 0.5 T m ( T m –melting temperature). Meanwhile, solute‐GB segregation originates from Zr segregation to NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 GBs; this results in further stabilization of the phase and grain‐size (≈14 nm) up to ≈0.58 and ≈0.64 T m , respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design of an Online Electrochemical Mass Spectrometry System to Study Gas Evolution from Cells with Lean and Volatile Electrolytes

Gas evolution in high-energy Li-ion batteries remains a pervasive problem for a multitude of chemistries, jeopardizing the electrochemical performance and safety for consumers of electric vehicles. Many electrode–electrolyte degradation processes evolve gasses that may be detected in-situ with online electrochemical mass spectrometry (OEMS). In this work, details are provided for the setup and validation of an OEMS system that operates well under lean and volatile electrolyte conditions. Quite notably, the OEMS cells with only 40 µL of electrolyte and intermittent headspace sampling exhibit comparable electrochemical performance to flooded coin-cells. It is demonstrated that the onset time, shape, and magnitude of the gas evolution profiles calculated from mass spectrometer measurements match well to a known pressure reference through the use of an empirically determined fraction of removal. The off-gassing characteristics from a set of layered-oxide materials, NMC532, NMC811, and LNO, are used to further validate the OEMS setup against the literature. It is shown that many of the features present in the OEMS curves for equivalent systems from other groups are captured by this OEMS system. Finally, at an upper cut-off voltage of 4.4 V, LNO exhibits an intense release of CO 2 , O 2 , and CO gas relative to NMC532 and NMC811.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of Swelling in Hematite Pellets Reduced Using Hydrogen–Nitrogen Gas Mixture

Iron ore pellets are reduced in a 50%H 2 –50%N 2 1 atm gas mixture at 750, 800, 850, 900, and 950 °C while simultaneously documenting swelling (change in pellet radius) and weight change. Swelling increases with increasing temperature, with catastrophic swelling (>20% of reduction swelling index) observed at 850, 900, and 950 °C. As the pellet is reduced, the pellet radius increases until 40–50% reduction is achieved, followed by a decrease in diameter beyond 40–50% reduction at 750 and 850 °C. At 950 °C, the pellet radius continues to increase with additional pellet reduction without any subsequent decrease in diameter. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis shows that the neighboring grains inside the pellet sinter together at 750 and 850 °C, whereas the individual grains sinter internally at 950 °C. SEM analysis and observations suggest that the reduction process at 750 and 850 °C can be approximated as a topochemical reaction process, while the reduction process at 950 °C can no longer be approximated as a topochemical reaction process. In conclusion, an empirical equation for the radius of the pellet is derived with fitting parameters dependent on temperature and the degree of reduction of the pellet undergoing reduction based on the experimental data.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles

Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Squeeze Film Damper Experimental and Numerical Correlation: Test Setup Description and Parameter Identification of Dry System

The process of characterizing a damper involves both experimental techniques and model simulation. Experiments characterize dynamic behavior of a system through empirical modal analysis using impact and shaker testing. The layout of the test setup is crucial for a low-mass, nonlinear system. Physical arrangement, orientation of the system, and instrumentation affect the results that are discussed in this paper. These results can be used to validate a numerical simulation of the same system. With a validated model, important physical input parameters and modeling techniques can be determined and implemented in future designs. In other words, this modeling can be used with confidence to design alternative dampers that may be difficult, costly, and time-consuming to characterize experimentally.

Cook, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Gradient-Based Multi-directional Controls in GANs

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been widely applied in modeling diverse image distributions. However, despite its impressive applications, the structure of the latent space in GANs largely remains as a black-box, leaving its controllable generation an open problem, especially when spurious correlations between different semantic attributes exist in the image distributions. To address this problem, previous methods typically learn linear directions or individual channels that control semantic attributes in the image space. However, they often suffer from imperfect disentanglement, or are unable to obtain multi-directional controls. Furthermore, in this work, in light of the above challenges, we propose a novel approach that discovers nonlinear controls, which enables multi-directional manipulation as well as effective disentanglement, based on gradient information in the learned GAN latent space. More specifically, we first learn interpolation directions by following the gradients from classification networks trained separately on the attributes, and then navigate the latent space by exclusively controlling channels activated for the target attribute in the learned directions. Empirically, with small training data, our approach is able to gain fine-grained controls over a diverse set of bi-directional and multi-directional attributes, and we showcase its ability to achieve disentanglement significantly better than state-of-the-art methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Conditioning of Diffusion Models Using Tree-of-Life for Studying Species Evolution

A central problem in biology is to understand how organisms evolve and adapt to their environment by acquiring variations in the observable characteristics or traits of species across the tree of life. With the growing availability of large-scale image repositories in biology and recent advances in generative modeling, there is an opportunity to accelerate the discovery of evolutionary traits automatically from images. Toward this goal, we introduce Phylo-Diffusion, a novel framework for conditioning diffusion models with phylogenetic knowledge represented in the form of HIERarchical Embeddings (HIER-Embeds). We also propose two new experiments for perturbing the embedding space of Phylo-Diffusion: trait masking and trait swapping, inspired by counterpart experiments of gene knockout and gene editing/swapping. Our work represents a novel methodological advance in generative modeling to structure the embedding space of diffusion models using tree-based knowledge. Our work also opens a new chapter of research in evolutionary biology by using generative models to visualize evolutionary changes directly from images. We empirically demonstrate the usefulness of Phylo-Diffusion in capturing meaningful trait variations for fishes and birds, revealing novel insights about the biological mechanisms of their evolution. (Model and code can be found at imageomics.github.io/phylo-diffusion)

Khurana, Mridul↗
DOE OSTI2021

The FMO-DFTB Method

Although the fragment molecular orbital (FMO) method enables electronic structure calculations with near-linear scaling behavior with respect to system size, the computational cost of ab initio methods typically employed in conjunction with FMO is still prohibitive for routine calculations of very large systems or long timescale molecular dynamics simulations. We, therefore, combined the FMO and density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) method, which is one of the emerging semi-empirical quantum chemical methods, and have demonstrated that FMO-DFTB is capable of performing geometry optimizations for systems containing up to one million atoms using limited computational resources. In this chapter, we will review the basics of the DFTB method first before introducing FMO-DFTB, focusing on the relationship with density functional theory and other FMO methodologies. We also demonstrate the latest scalings of FMO-DFTB2 and DFTB3 using three-dimensional water clusters, showing that the most favorable scaling is O(N1.16). Applications of FMO-DFTB to various systems are briefly summarized, and an outlook to future applications is provided.

Nishimoto, Yoshio↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inclusive prompt photon-jet correlations as a probe of gluon saturation in electron-nucleus scattering at small x

We compute the differential cross-section for inclusive prompt photon+quark production in deeply inelastic scattering of electrons off nuclei at small x (e + A DIS) in the framework of the Color Glass Condensate effective field theory. The result is expressed as a convolution of the leading order (in the strong coupling α s ) impact factor for the process and universal dipole matrix elements, in the limit of hard photon transverse momentum relative to the nuclear saturation scale Q s,A (x). We perform a numerical study of this process for the kinematics of the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), exploring in particular the azimuthal angle correlations between the final state photon and quark. We observe a systematic suppression and broadening pattern of the back-to-back peak in the relative azimuthal angle distribution, as the saturation scale is increased by replacing proton targets with gold nuclei. Our results suggest that photon+jet final states in inclusive e + A DIS at high energies are in general a promising channel for exploring gluon saturation that is complementary to inclusive and diffractive dijet production. They also provide a sensitive empirical test of the universality of dipole matrix elements when compared to identical measurements in proton-nucleus collisions. However because photon+jet correlations at small x in EIC kinematics require jet reconstruction at small k ⊥ , it will be important to study their feasibility relative to photon-hadron correlations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Loop amplitudes monodromy relations and color-kinematics duality

Color-kinematics duality is a remarkable conjectured property of gauge theory which, together with double copy, is at the heart of a wealth of new developments in scattering amplitudes. So far, its validity has been verified in most cases only empirically, with limited ab initio understanding beyond tree-level. In this paper we provide initial steps in a first-principle understanding of color-kinematics duality and double-copy at loop level, through a detailed analysis of the field-theory limit of the monodromy relations of string theory at one loop. In this limit, we dissect the type of Feynman graphs generated and the relations they obey. We find that graphs with contact-terms are unavoidable and are generated in the field theory limit of “bulk” contours which do not have a standard physical interpretation in string perturbation theory. We show how they are related to ambiguities in the definition of the loop momentum and that their role is precisely to cancel those ambiguities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized parton distributions through universal moment parameterization: non-zero skewness case

We present the first global analysis of generalized parton distributions (GPDs) combing lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) calculations and experiment measurements including global parton distribution functions (PDFs), form factors (FFs) and deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS) measurements. Following the previous work where we parameterize GPDs in terms of their moments, we extend the framework to allow for the global analysis at non-zero skewness. Together with the constraints at zero skewness, we fit GPDs to global DVCS measurements from both the recent JLab and the earlier Hadron-Electron Ring Accelerator (HERA) experiments with two active quark flavors and leading order QCD evolution. With certain choices of empirical constraints, both sea and valence quark distributions are extracted with the combined inputs, and we present the quark distributions in the proton correspondingly. We also discuss how to extend the framework to accommodate more off-forward constraints beyond the small ξ expansion, especially the lattice calculated GPDs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

SHAPER: can you hear the shape of a jet?

The identification of interesting substructures within jets is an important tool for searching for new physics and probing the Standard Model at colliders. Many of these substructure tools have previously been shown to take the form of optimal transport problems, in particular the Energy Mover’s Distance (EMD). In this work, we show that the EMD is in fact the natural structure for comparing collider events, which accounts for its recent success in understanding event and jet substructure. We then present a Shape Hunting Algorithm using Parameterized Energy Reconstruction (SHAPER), which is a general framework for defining and computing shape-based observables. SHAPER generalizes N-jettiness from point clusters to any extended, parametrizable shape. This is accomplished by efficiently minimizing the EMD between events and parameterized manifolds of energy flows representing idealized shapes, implemented using the dual-potential Sinkhorn approximation of the Wasserstein metric. We show how the geometric language of observables as manifolds can be used to define novel observables with built-in infrared-and-collinear safety. We demonstrate the efficacy of the SHAPER framework by performing empirical jet substructure studies using several examples of new shape-based observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of potential impact of magnetic fields from a subsea high-voltage DC power cable on migrating green sturgeon, Acipenser medirostris

Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that marine animals perceive and orient to local distortions in the earth’s natural magnetic field. Magnetic fields (MFs) generated by electrified underwater cables may produce similar local distortions in the earth’s main field. Concern exists that these distortions may impact migration movements of MF-sensitive animals. The Trans Bay Cable (TBC) is a ± 200-kV, 400-megawatt, 85-km high-voltage direct current transmission line buried through San Francisco Bay (37° 56′ 8.81″ N, 122° 27′ 0.19″ W). Detections of adult green sturgeon implanted with acoustic transmitters were used from six cross-bay receiver arrays from 2006 to 2015 to investigate how inbound and outbound migration movements through lower portions of their route to/from upstream breeding grounds are related to the TBC’s energization status (off/on) and other local environmental variables. Here, we assess how these variables impacted transit success, misdirection from the migration route, transit times, and migration path locations within stretches between the Bay’s mouth and the start of the Sacramento River. Overall, there was varied evidence for any effect on migration behavior associated with cable status (off/on). A higher percentage of inbound fish successfully transited after the cable was energized, but this effect was nonsignificant in models including temperature. Outbound fish took longer to transit after cable energization. Inbound and outbound migration path locations were not significantly influenced by cable energization, but results suggest a potential subtle relationship between energization and both inbound and outbound paths. Overall, additional migration-based studies are needed to investigate the impact of anthropogenic cables on marine species.

Wyman, Megan T. (ORCID:0000000256844603)↗