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At least 721 records · Page 40

Interactively Assessing Disentanglement in GANs

Abstract Generative adversarial networks (GAN) have witnessed tremendous growth in recent years, demonstrating wide applicability in many domains. However, GANs remain notoriously difficult for people to interpret, particularly for modern GANs capable of generating photo‐realistic imagery. In this work we contribute a visual analytics approach for GAN interpretability, where we focus on the analysis and visualization of GAN disentanglement. Disentanglement is concerned with the ability to control content produced by a GAN along a small number of distinct, yet semantic, factors of variation. The goal of our approach is to shed insight on GAN disentanglement, above and beyond coarse summaries, instead permitting a deeper analysis of the data distribution modeled by a GAN. Our visualization allows one to assess a single factor of variation in terms of groupings and trends in the data distribution, where our analysis seeks to relate the learned representation space of GANs with attribute‐based semantic scoring of images produced by GANs. Through use‐cases, we show that our visualization is effective in assessing disentanglement, allowing one to quickly recognize a factor of variation and its overall quality. In addition, we show how our approach can highlight potential dataset biases learned by GANs.

Jeong, Sangwon↗

Needle bacterial community structure across the species range of limber pine

Abstract Bacteria on and inside leaves can influence forest tree health and resilience. The distribution and limits of a tree species’ range can be influenced by various factors, with biological interactions among the most significant. We investigated the processes shaping the bacterial needle community across the species distribution of limber pine, a widespread Western conifer inhabiting a range of extreme habitats. We tested four hypotheses: (i) Needle community structure varies across sites, with site-specific factors more important to microbial assembly than host species selection; (ii) dispersal limitation structures foliar communities across the range of limber pine; (iii) the relative significance of dispersal and selection differs across sites in the tree species range; and (iv) needle age structures bacterial communities. We characterized needle communities from the needle surface and tissue of limber pine and co-occurring conifers across 16 sites in the limber pine distribution. Our findings confirmed that site characteristics shape the assembly of bacterial communities across the host species range and showed that these patterns are not driven by dispersal limitation. Furthermore, the strength of selection by the host varied by site, possibly due to differences in available microbes. Our study, by focusing on trees in their natural setting, reveals real needle bacterial dynamics in forests, which is key to understanding the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in shaping forest tree-microbe interactions. Such understanding will be necessary to predict or manipulate these interactions to support forest ecosystem productivity or assist plant migration and adaptation in the face of global change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Gluon transverse-momentum-dependent distributions from large-momentum effective theory

We demonstrate that gluon transverse-momentum-dependent parton distribution functions (TMDPDFs) can be extracted from lattice calculations of appropriate Euclidean correlations in large-momentum effective theory (LaMET). Based on perturbative calculations of gluon unpolarized and helicity TMDPDFs, we present a matching formula connecting them and their LaMET counterparts, where the latter are renormalized in a scheme facilitating lattice calculations and converted to the $\overline{MS}$ scheme. The hard matching kernel is given up to one-loop level. We also show that the perturbative result is independent of the prescription used for the pinch-pole singularity in the relevant correlations. Our results offer a guidance for the extraction of gluon TMDPDFs from lattice simulations, and have the potential to greatly facilitate perturbative calculations of the hard matching kernel.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Spatial Intermittency of Particle Distribution in Relativistic Plasma Turbulence

Abstract Relativistic magnetically dominated turbulence is an efficient engine for particle acceleration in a collisionless plasma. Ultrarelativistic particles accelerated by interactions with turbulent fluctuations form nonthermal power-law distribution functions in the momentum (or energy) space, f ( γ ) d γ ∝ γ − α d γ , where γ is the Lorenz factor. We argue that in addition to exhibiting non-Gaussian distributions over energies, particles energized by relativistic turbulence also become highly intermittent in space. Based on particle-in-cell numerical simulations and phenomenological modeling, we propose that the bulk plasma density has lognormal statistics, while the density of the accelerated particles, n , has a power-law distribution function, P ( n ) dn ∝ n − β dn . We argue that the scaling exponents are related as β ≈ α + 1, which is broadly consistent with numerical simulations. Non-space-filling, intermittent distributions of plasma density and energy fluctuations may have implications for plasma heating and for radiation produced by relativistic turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Retrieve Optically Thick Ice Cloud Microphysical Properties by Using Airborne Dual-Wavelength Radar Measurements

An algorithm to retrieve optically thick ice cloud microphysical property profiles is developed by using the GSFC 9.6 GHz ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) and the 94 GHz Cloud Radar System (CRS) measurements aboard the high-altitude ER-2 aircraft. In situ size distribution and total water content data from the CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign are used for the algorithm development. To reduce uncertainty in calculated radar reflectivity factors (Ze) at these wavelengths, coincident radar measurements and size distribution data are used to guide the selection of mass-length relationships and to deal with the density and non-spherical effects of ice crystals on the Ze calculations. The algorithm is able to retrieve microphysical property profiles of optically thick ice clouds, such as, deep convective and anvil clouds, which are very challenging for single frequency radar and lidar. Examples of retrieved microphysical properties for a deep convective clouds are presented, which show that EDOP and CRS measurements provide rich information to study cloud structure and evolution. Good agreement between IWPs derived from an independent submillimeter-wave radiometer, CoSSIR, and dual-wavelength radar measurements indicates accuracy of the IWC retrieved from the two-frequency radar algorithm.

Wang, Zhien↗

A cracked sheet stiffened by several partially debonded intact or broken stringers

The effect of several stringers on the stress intensity factors at the tips of a crack is considered. The stringers which were continuously attached to the plate and placed perpendicular to the crack may be partially debonded due to high stress concentrations. Since the stringers may even break under excessive loading conditions, both intact and broken stringers are considered to investigate the effect of rupture. The continuity of displacements along the bond lines leads to an integral equation which is solved to give the shear stress distribution in the adhesive and the stress intensity factors at the crack tips.

Arin, K.↗

Systematic Extraction of Pion Parton Distributions Using Threshold Resummation and Applications to Pion TMDs

Following our recent Monte Carlo determination of the pion?s PDFs from Drell-Yan (DY) and leading neutron electroproduction data from the Jefferson Lab Angular Momentum (JAM) collaboration, we extend the analysis by including effects from threshold resummation. At higher orders in the strong coupling, ?S, soft gluon emissions cause large logarithmic corrections, which become important in the qq¯ channel of the DY partonic cross section near threshold. These corrections can be summed over all orders of ?S. However, different prescriptions exist for how the threshold resummation is implemented, for instance, using varying levels of approximation in the Minimal Prescription with cosine, expansion, and double Mellin methods. We present the Monte Carlo results of the first simultaneous fit of the valence, sea, and gluon distributions in the pion taking into account the ambiguities in the resummation calculations. The wide ranges of valence distributions at large x and the effective behavior of the valence distribution as x approaches 1 is discussed. While the PDFs are extracted through collinear factorization, we additionally present a dedicated study to the low and large lepton pair transverse momentum distributions (TMDs) in the same DY experimental data. By adjusting the nonperturbative TMD components, we analyze the degree of compatibility between data and theory across all regions of transverse momentum dependence. We attempt to match the description of the low transverse momentum region using Collins-Soper-Sterman (CSS) formalism and the large transverse momentum region, which is best described using collinear factorization.

Sato, Nobuo↗

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗

Tidal Disruptions of Main Sequence Stars - II. Simulation Methodology and Stellar Mass Dependence of the Character of Full Tidal Disruptions

This paper introduces a series of papers presenting a quantitative theory for the tidal disruption of main-sequence stars by supermassive black holes. Using fully general relativistic hydrodynamics simulations and MESA-model initial conditions, we explore the pericenter-dependence of tidal disruption properties for eight stellar masses (0.15 < M_/M<10)and six black hole masses( ́10<MM105 105BH7). We present here the results most relevant to observations. The effects of internal stellar structure and relativity decouple for both the disruption cross section and the characteristic energy width of the debris. Moreover, the full disruption cross section is almost independent of Må for Må/Me3. Independent of Må, relativistic effects increase the critical pericenter distance for full disruption events by up to a factor of ∼3 relative to the Newtonian prediction. The probability of a direct capture is also independent of Må; at MBH/Me5×106this probability is equal to the probability of a complete disruption. The breadth of the debris energy distribution ΔE can differ from the standard estimate by factors of 0.35−2, depending on Må and MBH, implying a corresponding change(∝(ΔE)−3/2)in the characteristic mass-return timescale. We provide analytic forms, suitable for use in both event rate estimates and parameter inference, to describe all these trends. For partial disruptions, we find a nearly universal relation between the star’s angular momentum and the fraction of Må remaining. Within the “empty loss-cone” regime, partial disruptions must precede full disruptions. These partial disruptions can drastically affect the rate and appearance of subsequent total disruptions

Taeho Ryu↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Managing Uncertainty Due to a Fundamental Error Source Arising from Scatterer Distribution Complexity in Radar Remote Sensing of Precipitation

The assumption that cloud and rain drops are spatially distributed according to a Poisson distribution within a scattering volume probed by a radar being used to estimate precipitation has represented bedrock theory in establishing 'rules of the game' for pulse averaging--the process needed to beat down noise to an acceptable level in the measurement of radar reflectivity factor. Based on relatively recent observations of 'realistic' spatial distributions of hydrometeor scatterers in a cloudy atmosphere motivates a renewed examination of the consequences of using a too simplified assumption underlying volume scattering--particularly in regards to the standard pulse averaging rule. Our investigation addresses two extremes, simple to complex, insofar as allowed for complexities in an underlying scatterer distribution. It is demonstrated that as the spatial distribution ranges from Poisson (a narrow distribution) to multi-fractal (much broader distribution), uncertainty in a measurement increases if the rule for pulse averaging goes unchanged from its Poisson distribution reference county. [A bounded cascade is used for the multi-fractal distribution, a regularly observed distribution vis-a-vis cloud liquid water content.] The resultant measurement uncertainty leads to a fundamental source of error in the estimation of rain rate from radar measurements, one that has been disregarded since the early 1950s when radar sets first began to be used for rainfall measuring. It is shown how this source of error can be 'managed'--under the assumption that number of data analysis experiments would be carried out, experiments involving pulse-by-pulse measurements obtained from a radar set modified to output individual pulses of reflectivity factor. For practical applications, a new parameter called normalized k-sample intensity invariance is developed to enable defining the required pulse average count according to a preferred degree of uncertainty.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Software reliability: Additional investigations into modeling with replicated experiments

The effects of programmer experience level, different program usage distributions, and programming languages are explored. All these factors affect performance, and some tentative relational hypotheses are presented. An analytic framework for replicated and non-replicated (traditional) software experiments is presented. A method of obtaining an upper bound on the error rate of the next error is proposed. The method was validated empirically by comparing forecasts with actual data. In all 14 cases the bound exceeded the observed parameter, albeit somewhat conservatively. Two other forecasting methods are proposed and compared to observed results. Although demonstrated relative to this framework that stages are neither independent nor exponentially distributed, empirical estimates show that the exponential assumption is nearly valid for all but the extreme tails of the distribution. Except for the dependence in the stage probabilities, Cox's model approximates to a degree what is being observed.

Nagel, P. M.↗

Tidal Disruptions of Main Sequence Stars - I. Observable Quantities and their Dependence on Stellar and Black Hole Mass

This paper introduces a series of papers presenting a quantitative theory for the tidal disruption of main-sequence stars by supermassive black holes. Using fully general relativistic hydrodynamics simulations and MESA-model initial conditions, we explore the pericenter-dependence of tidal disruption properties for eight stellar masses(MM0.1510)and six black hole masses( MM105 105BH7). We present here the results most relevant to observations. The effects of internal stellar structure and relativity decouple for both the disruption cross section and the characteristic energy width of the debris. Moreover, the full disruption cross section is almost independent of Må for Må/Me3. Independent of Må, relativistic effects increase the critical pericenter distance for full disruption events by up to a factor of∼3 relative to the Newtonian prediction. The probability of a direct capture is also independent of Må; at MBH/Me;5×106 this probability is equal to the probability of a complete disruption. The breadth of the debris energy distribution ΔE can differ from the standard estimate by factors of0.35−2, depending on Må and MBH, implying a corresponding change(∝(ΔE)−3/2)in the characteristic mass-return timescale. We provide analytic forms, suitable for use in both event rate estimates and parameter inference, to describe all these trends. For partial disruptions, we find a nearly universal relation between the star’s angular momentum and the fraction of Må remaining. Within the “empty loss-cone” regime, partial disruptions must precede full disruptions. These partial disruptions can drastically affect the rate and appearance of subsequent total disruptions.

Taeho Ryu↗

Characterizing Damage Accumulation in CMCs

Silicon carbide / silicon carbide ceramic matrix composites (SiC/SiC CMCs) are structural ceramics that are well-suited for the extreme environment conditions of aerospace applications largely due to their low weight, creep resistance, damage tolerance, and high specific strength. In CMCs, the initiation and evolution of damage is influenced by a number of factors including characteristics of the constituent landscape (porosity, interfacial properties, and geometric distribution of CMC constituents), thermo-mechanical loading parameters, and environmental conditions. However, much is still unknown about these factors and the interactions between them. In order to accurately predict the lifetimes of these advanced composites, it is critical to understand the evolution of damage and to characterize which early damage mechanisms (and their relationship to key microstructural features) subsequently lead to crack coalescence and macroscopic failure. This research focuses on the use of a multi-modal, experimental approach to examine the relative activity of surface and subsurface damage mechanisms in CMCs. The impact of fabrication choices on the evolution of damage to final failure, and the influence of constituent architecture on early damage mechanisms, are investigated. This approach combines acoustic emission (AE) with microscale deformation tracking via digital image correlation inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM-DIC). The potential application of this combined approach towards characterization of damage in SiC/SiC CMCs under more complex testing conditions is explored.

Swaminathan, Bhavana↗

Method of Estimating the Incompressible-flow Pressure Distribution of Compressor Blade Sections at Design Angle of Attack

A method was devised for estimating the incompressible-flow pressure distribution over compressor blade sections at design angle of attack. The theoretical incremental velocities due to camber and thickness of the section as an isolated airfoil are assumed proportional to the average passage velocity and are modified by empirically determined interference factors. Comparisons were made between estimated and test pressure distributions of NACA 65-series sections for typical conditions. Good agreement was obtained.

COMPRESSOR FLOW THEORY AND EXPERIMENT↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗