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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A robust offering strategy for wind producers considering uncertainties of demand response and wind power

This paper proposes a risk-constrained decision-making approach for a wind power producer participating in the day-ahead market. In the developed model, a flexible demand response trading scheme between the wind power producer and different customers is employed. Through the proposed demand response mechanism, the wind power producer is able to trade demand response resource internally with different customers, and then trade energy externally with the market to increase the expected profit and the wind energy utilization. The uncertainties in the wind power and demand response are modeled by using the information gap decision theory approach from risk averse (robust) and risk-seeking (opportunistic) perspectives. The objective of the robust model is to maximize the robust level while satisfying the desired profit, whereas the opportunistic model aims to evaluate the possibility of achieving windfall profits with favorable uncertainties. The overall offering strategy problem is modeled as a bi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming, which is linearized by proper techniques and solved efficiently by using the normal boundary intersection technique. In this work, simulation results show that utilizing demand response resource to mitigate wind power deviations can increase a wind power producer's profit and reduce potential risks. In addition, the results demonstrate that the proposed bi-objective optimization approach enables the wind power producer to select appropriate offering decisions with respect to uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A framework for estimating the energy-saving potential of occupant behaviour improvement

Energy-related occupant behaviour in buildings has demonstrated considerable energy-saving potential. However, the current modelling method of occupant behaviour does not give sufficient considerations on the implementation difficulty of behaviour and provide a holistic map from survey data to various behaviour models. This article proposes a holistic survey-and-simulation-based framework for estimating the energy-saving potential of occupant behaviour improvement. In the framework, seven typical categories of occupant behaviour models are identified based on the survey results. According to the implementation difficulty, the models are integrated into four behaviour styles (baseline, wasteful, moderate and austere) to represent different levels of energy-saving consciousness of occupants. Based on a case study with a nationwide survey in Singapore, there are remarkable energy savings potential if occupant behaviour is improved; the building energy consumption can be reduced by up to 9.5% with the moderate behaviour improvement, and up to 21.0% with the aggressive behaviour improvement. The simulation results accord well with the measured results within a reasonable range of deviation. The framework can be applied to estimate the energy-saving potential of occupant behaviour improvement in a building with affordable cost, and the findings can inform a behaviour improvement programme with effective and efficient measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental demonstration of high-temperature (>1000 °C) heat extraction from a moving-bed oxidation reactor for thermochemical energy storage

Previously developed reduction-oxidation (redox) thermochemical energy storage technologies must store their products at high temperatures, complicating handling and transportation. This work describes a countercurrent, tubular, moving bed oxidation reactor at laboratory scale that produces high grade heat and allows solids to enter and exit the system at ambient temperatures. The particles implemented in the system consist of a novel magnesium manganese-oxide material well-suited for thermochemical energy storage. Output heat is obtained via a separate extraction gas flow, which exits from the middle portion of the main reactor tube. With this design, reactor temperatures in excess of 1000°C and extraction temperatures above 950°C were achieved. Deviation between the two measurements is a result of extraction thermocouple placement and losses in the reactor extraction arm; improvements to these parameters would bring the extraction temperature closer to the bed temperature. The reactor produces enough energy via oxidation to sustain both heat extraction and continued chemical reaction. During one representative steady state experiment at a particle flow rate of 1.5 g/s, an average of 447 W was extracted from the reactor out of an estimated 1083 W of released chemical energy for a duration of 70 minutes. Among the four experiments, the maximum bench-scale oxidation reactor energy efficiency of 36.2% and corresponding round-trip efficiency of 13.7% considering both redox reactors were demonstrated. Characteristics of an ideal system are considered and future improvements are proposed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A methodology to develop multi-physics dynamic fuel cell system models validated with vehicle realistic drive cycle data

Fuel cell (FC) technology has been identified as a technically attractive solution to decarbonize the transportation sector, especially for heavy-duty vehicles. In this context, the industry and the scientific community are in need of advanced fuel cell systems (FCS) models that are able to replicate real -world operating conditions. Due to the scarcity of said models in the open literature, this study aimed to develop a comprehensive methodology to calibrate and validate multi -physics dynamic FCS models. Therefore, the key contribution of this paper is the detailed description of the calibration process for each component and the calibration order. The specific focus here was to accurately describe the behavior of the FC stack as well as the cathode, anode, and cooling circuits of the balance of plant. The model was calibrated with the aid of experimental data from a Toyota Mirai FC electric vehicle, which was predominantly retrieved from the vehicle's Controller Area Network (CAN) bus system thereby negating the need for major intrusion into the powertrain system. The validation process was deemed successful with the model being able to truthfully replicate the characteristics of the FC vehicle operated on the World-wide harmonized Light duty Test Cycle (WLTC) 3b and US06 driving cycle. The time -resolved physical parameters such as the cathode pressure, mass flow, or the FC stack temperature were captured with high fidelity, while the overall performance parameters such as the H2 consumption in the stack and the system, and the compressor energy consumption were predicted accurately with a deviation lower than 0.47%, 1.75% and 1.89% with respect to the experimental data, respectively.

Lopez-Juarez, Marcos↗
DOE OSTI2025

A real-time distributed solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) model for cyber-physical simulation

System integration and dynamic operability between SOEC and balance-of-plant (BoP) components are major technical challenges before realizing rapid load following of SOEC systems. Cyber-physical simulation (CPS) is a leading-edge digital engineering approach and is regarded as the next step beyond Digital Twins. CPS approach can be used to research SOEC system integration and develop dynamic controls prior to actual pilot testing without using a real SOEC. To seamlessly couple with BoP hardware and access non-observable operational parameters (e.g., local temperature gradient) during transients, a distributed one-dimensional (1D) real-time SOEC model was developed. Its real-time execution was demonstrated for 20 to 640 nodes at the fixed time step of 5 ms. A higher excess air ratio enabled smaller local temperature gradients on SOEC solid materials and faster transients upon current density step change from 0.15 to 0.55 A cm -2 . During the transients, the magnitude of the peak temperature gradient nearly doubled in 10 s from -3.5 to -5.9 °C cm -1 . This represents a significant operating risk that can impact the dynamic operability of SOEC systems. In addition, the local temperature gradient was found to change directions on all nodes in SOEC solid materials, with the greatest impact on the upstream nodes. The SOEC model was also tested at the thermal neutral voltage using actual process air flow parameters as variable model inputs. Variable process air temperatures were found to induce alternating local temperature gradients on SOEC solid materials. These are new operational mechanisms for SOEC degradation relevant for load following operational modes yet distinct from previous reports. To mitigate these unfavorable features, the SOEC can be operated at voltages that are slightly (±20 mV) deviated from the thermal neutral voltage. Here, the corresponding net thermal energy change was less than 1.6% of the electric power consumption. This 1D real-time SOEC model established the basis of cyber-physical simulation of SOEC hybrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental and analytical study of the hydrodynamic and single and two-phase convective heat transfer performance of flexible PDMS microchannels with micropillar arrays

Various copper and silicon based thermal management systems are used in the cooling of electronics. However, the rigid nature of these materials along with their high thermal and electrical conductivity pose a difficulty in developing direct contact embedded flexible cooling systems that can offer robust cooling performance. The low density, thermal stability, chemical inertness, and electrical insulation of Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) make it an ideal material to develop lightweight direct contact thermal management systems for electronics. Its ease of fabrication with tunable flexibility provides the opportunity to go beyond traditional electronics and develop advanced active and passive thermal management systems for a wide–range of applications in foldable and wearable electronics, liquid cooling garments, microgravity, and electric motors. In this study, a flexible PDMS based microchannel with micropillar arrays, which enhance the thermal performance of the device through capillary-assisted flow, has been developed. The hydrodynamic and convection heat transfer performance of three PDMS wick pillar geometries, ranging from a porosity of 0.8–0.91, are investigated and compared under single-phase and two-phase conditions. Dielectric coolant FC-3283 is employed and permeability measurements are made for mass fluxes ranging from 53 kg/m 2 s to 369 kg/m 2 s. Given its conformability, the device demonstrates a deviation from Darcy’s Law, within the laminar regime, with an increasing permeability with mass flux at the rate of ~0.5–0.8 Darcy/(kg/m 2 s). A semi-analytical model has been developed and reported to quantify the conformability of the device. The heat transfer performance is experimentally evaluated using the same dielectric fluid for mass flux ranging from 105 kg/m 2 s to 420 kg/m 2 s with heat fluxes ranging from 1.5 W/cm 2 to 16 W/cm 2 . Heat transfer coefficients of up to 7000 W/m 2 K are observed, which are comparable to copper and silicon microchannels. The effect of porosity on the single phase thermal performance has been evaluated against the pumping power to provide a basis for thermal management system design. Finally, high-speed imaging is performed to study the two-phase flow characteristics to provide insight into the vapor formation and removal.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flow pattern and void fraction characterization in nitrogen/water flows through a diamond-type triply periodic minimal surface lattice

Here, this study presents, to the authors knowledge, the first experimental investigation on the void fraction and flow patterns in two-phase flows through a diamond-type Triply Periodic Minimal Surface (TPMS) lattice. An additively manufactured TPMS structure was tested under upward co-current flow of a water/nitrogen mixture. Superficial velocities varied for a total of 42 test conditions (gas: 0.01–2.4 m/s; liquid: 0.01–2.4 m/s; mass flux: 20–2370 kg/m 2 ·s). High-speed video and X-ray imaging enabled time-averaged void fraction measurements and identified six distinct flow regimes which were used to develop a flow pattern map. Comparison of the void fraction data with correlations from literature demonstrated the Rouhani and Axelsson (1970) [49] correlation modified by Steiner (1993) [52] provided the best agreement, which was improved with empirically fit coefficients. This approach predicted the void fraction with errors < ±20% for 64% of the data, with a mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD) of 23%. The measured frictional pressure drop was compared to correlations from literature which captured the observed trends but did not provide good accuracy. The best agreement was found after optimizing the empirical coefficients of the Muller-Steinhagen & Heck (1986) [56] correlation; this approach captured 33% of the data within ±20% with a MAPD of 46% over the full range and captured 71% of the data within ±20% a MAPD of 13.3% at mass fluxes >1100 kg/m 2 -s. These results provide foundational insight into TPMS two-phase flow behavior and inform modeling and design of advanced heat exchange components incorporating TPMS geometries.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic modeling of near isothermal compressor for Transcritical carbon dioxide cycle to support efficiency improvement

Compressors are the primary components of energy consumption in vapor compression systems, drawing considerable research effort to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency. This work presents an isothermal compressor that integrates the compression chamber with the gas cooler to achieve near-isothermal compression, resulting in up to 30% energy reduction compared to traditional isentropic compression, according to the experiment results. A detailed dynamic model for the isothermal compression cycle of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is first presented, coupled with a liquid-piston model for chamber design. The model is experimentally validated on a 3.5 kW prototype, yielding a 6.2% relative error in chamber pressure and a 0.5 K deviation in chamber temperature. The liquid piston exhibits reduced frictional heating and geometric adaptability relative to the mechanical piston. Leveraging these attributes, the study further evaluates approaches that enhance the heat transfer to achieve isothermal compression by increasing the effective heat transfer area during compression. As a result, simulations demonstrated up to a 5% improvement in the coefficient of performance over the baseline case through chamber design, providing guidelines for design of isothermal compression cycle.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interface structures of inclined ZnO thin film on (0 1 1)-MgO substrate with bulk-like optical properties

Combining different phase structure materials with unique properties to design novel devices plays a significant role in the development of modern electronics. Here, we explore the characteristics of this type of complex interface and epitaxy structures based on the coupling between hexagonal ZnO film and cubic MgO substrate. The ZnO film was prepared by the molecular beam epitaxy technique on the MgO (0 1 1) substrate. The analysis results from the in situ reflection high energy electron diffraction patterns, X-ray diffraction (XRD)-pole figures and high resolution transmission electron microscopy images demonstrate that the film exhibits two-fold symmetry domains with a growth direction deviated from c-axis at about 31º along the [0 1 0] MgO or [0 $\bar{1}$ 0] MgO azimuth. Despite the intertwined diffusion from Zn and Mg atoms in the interface, which is the possible origin of a blue shift of about 0.083 eV in the Photoluminescence (PL) spectrum, the inclined film shows a full width at half maximum value that is close to the reported value from the high quality film. Finally, this work hopefully provides useful insights to the design and exploration of the novel optoelectronic devices that involve the integration of materials with different structure and different properties.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transformations of Ti-5Al-5V-5Cr-3Mo powder due to reuse in laser powder bed fusion: A surface analytical approach

Reactive Ti-5Al-5 V-5Cr-3Mo (Ti5553) alloy feedstock powder is used in laser powder-bed fusion (LPBF). Due to the large quantity of powder necessary for LPBF, powder is reused numerous times under oxidizing environments. Transformations to the powder’s native surface oxide may impact the LPBF process and lead to deviations from expected behavior of printed parts. In this work, we present a multimodal characterization of new and reused powder by combining X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of focused ion beam (FIB)-prepared cross sections of individual powder particles to understand how the surface oxide composition changes, grows, and becomes hydroxylated and hydrated due to reuse. We show that the native oxide film of Ti5553 powder is a hydroxylated mixed oxide composed of TiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 that grows from 5.6 +/- 0.7 nm to 8.3 +/- 1.1 nm due to reuse. Al oxide regions of the surface oxide become more hydroxylated during reuse in comparison to Ti oxide regions. This indicates that an outer oxide of pure TiO 2 may enhance recyclability of Ti5553 powder while the presence of Al oxides may decrease recyclability. Further characterization of surface transformations due to recyclability may eliminate unnecessary variation in LPBF.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mixed Tin-Titanium Oxides by Atomic Layer Deposition on Planar Substrates: Physical and Electronic Structure

Ternary atomic layer deposition of Sn-doped TiO x (Sn:TiO x ) and Ti-doped SnO x (Ti:SnO x ) was performed using tetrakisdimethylamidotitanium (IV) and tin(IV) with water at 150 °C on (1 0 0) Si and quartz substrates. The physical structure of the films was investigated using scanning electron, atomic force, and Kelvin probe force microscopies as well as spectroscopic ellipsometry, Raman spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction. All as-deposited films are amorphous and possessed flat and conformal topographies with low surface roughness (<1 nm). Annealed Sn:TiO x and Ti:SnO x crystallize into the tetragonal anatase TiO 2 and cassiterite SnO 2 structures, respectively, without large variations to the film topography. The chemical composition of the as-deposited and annealed films was investigated through X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. While dopants are homogenously mixed, the ternary ALD to form Sn:TiO x and Ti:SnO x surprisingly does not follow the rule of mixtures, despite similarities in both the growth rates of binary SnO x and TiO x and the precursors used. This finding is also supported by spectroscopic ellipsometry. Here, we postulate the deviation from the rule of mixtures is due to non-ideal surface chemistry of the binary ALD of SnO x . The optical bandgap of all films was quantified by the Tauc analysis and the valence band position was investigated by valence band X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Intra-bandgap states above the valence band maximum were observed for as-deposited Ti:SnO x and Sn:TiO x and ascribed to 5 s states from Sn 2+ ions. The presence of these intra-bandgap states induces enhanced visible absorption and bathochromic shifts to the apparent bandgap for all as-deposited films. Annealing the films removes the intra-bandgap states and increases the optical bandgap. Simplified band diagrams created using the data available demonstrated that the conduction and valence band positions did not vary between the positions of pure TiO 2 or SnO 2 with monotonic increases to the dopant incorporation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interaction mechanism of transition metal phthalocyanines on transition metal nitride supports

Here, we investigated the electronic interactions between transition metal phthalocyanine (TMPc’s) on a refractory transition metal nitride support, specifically copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) on titanium nitride (TiN). X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) results suggest a presence of a few nanometer native oxide layer on the surface of the TiN nanoparticles, which consists of TiN, TiO 2 , and Titanium oxynitrides (Ti x O y N z ). A TiNCuPc nanocomposite was synthesized via a simple mixing method due to the strong binding between CuPc and TiN confirmed by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Both XPS data and DFT calculations revealed an electron transfer from TiN substrate to CuPc molecule. The nature of charge transfer is not influenced by the presence of an oxide layer on the surface of TiN. Substantial deviations are however found between photoelectron emission microscopy (PEEM) measured work function for TiN (4.68 eV) and theoretically calculated work function for pristine stoichiometric TiN (2.63 eV). This behavior is attributed to the presence of an oxide layer on the TiN surface. TiNCuPc composite system has a work function value between those of TiN and CuPc. Our studies open up an opportunity to apply a new class of materials based on transition metal phthalocyanine/transition metal nitride composites to catalysis and optoelectronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Snowmass2021 - Letter of interest cosmology intertwined IV: The age of the universe and its curvature

A precise measurement of the curvature of the Universe is of prime importance for cosmology since it could not only confirm the paradigm of primordial inflation but also help in discriminating between different early-Universe scenarios. Recent observations, while broadly consistent with a spatially flat standard Λ Cold Dark Matter ( Λ CDM) model, show tensions that still allow (and, in some cases, even suggest) a few percent deviations from a flat universe. In particular, the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra, assuming the nominal likelihood, prefer a closed universe at more than 99% confidence level. While new physics could be at play, this anomaly may be the result of an unresolved systematic error or just a statistical fluctuation. However, since positive curvature allows a larger age of the Universe, an accurate determination of the age of the oldest objects provides a smoking gun in confirming or falsifying the current flat Λ CDM model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microwave radiometer, sun-photometer and GNSS multi-comparison of integrated water vapor in Southwestern Europe

This work presents a comparison of integrated water vapor (IWV) data recorded from microwave radiometer (MWR) and sun-photometer (SP) using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) IWV as reference in five mid-latitude sites of Portugal and Spain (2003–2021). A very high correlation is obtained for both instruments (R2 between 0.94 and 0.98), although, while MWR shows a wet bias, SP exhibits a dry one. In addition, a dependence of mean bias error (MBE) and standard deviation (SD) on IWV has been observed, increasing (larger discrepancies) both indices as IWV increases. The solar zenith angle (SZA) dependence is also studied, finding slightly larger discrepancies for the MWR than for SP in comparison with GNSS for very high values of SZA. Finally, a marked seasonal dependence is observed for SP-GNSS differences, modulated by the IWV dependence explained above. In contrast, the seasonal dependence for MWR is quite weaker than it is for SP. Therefore, in spite of the excellent agreement found among the different instruments, it is recommended that: i) the dependence with IWV be studied and corrected to further increase the performance of the instruments, and ii) metadata be used to filter out situations in which the instrument cannot operate properly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗