Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological Constraints from Combining Photometric Galaxy Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observatories

Spatial variations in survey properties due to selection effects generate substantial systematic errors in large-scale structure measurements in optical galaxy surveys on very large scales. On such scales, the statistical sensitivity of optical surveys is also limited by their finite sky coverage. By contrast, gravitational wave (GW) sources appear to be relatively free of these issues, provided the angular sensitivity of GW experiments can be accurately characterized. We quantify the expected cosmological information gain from combining the forecast LSST 3$\times$2pt analysis (combination of three 2-point correlations of galaxy density and weak lensing shear fields) with the large-scale auto-correlation of GW sources from proposed next-generation GW experiments. We find that in $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM models, there is no significant improvement in cosmological constraints from combining GW with LSST 3$\times$2pt over LSST alone, due to the large shot noise for the former; however, this combination does enable a $\sim6\%$ constraint on the linear galaxy bias of GW sources. More interestingly, the optical-GW data combination provides tight constraints on models with primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), due to the predicted scale-dependent bias in PNG models on large scales. Assuming that the largest angular scales that LSST will probe are comparable to those in Stage III surveys ($\ell_{\rm min}\sim50$), the inclusion of next-generation GW measurements could improve constraints on the PNG parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ by up to a factor of $\simeq6.6$ compared to LSST alone, yielding $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=8.5$. These results assume the expected capability of a network of Einstein Telescope-like GW observatories, with a detection rate of $10^6$ events/year. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about future GW detectors as well as different LSST analysis choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

EVALUATION OF PRESSURE DROP CORRELATIONS FOR THE WIRE-WRAPPED ROD BUNDLES

The accurate prediction of pressure drop in the fuel rod bundle is of importance for the design and thermal-hydraulic analysis of nuclear reactor system. Due to very complex geometry of wire-wrapped fuel rod bundle geometry for the Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR), a simple method using hydraulic (equivalent) diameter is not sufficient to predict the pressure drop of rod bundle accurately. For several decades, many experimental works have been performed to develop an accurate correlation for wire-wrapped fuel bundle friction factor. In these works, the friction factor correlation of wire-wrapped fuel bundle has been developed as a function of Reynolds number of the flow and the design parameters such as fuel pin diameter, wire diameter, rod pitch, and wire lead length. The Cheng and Todreas correlations are well-known and used in many subchannel analysis code, such as CADET, TRIO-U, MATRA-LMW, SE2-ANL, etc. Novendstern model, Rehme model, Baxi and Dalle Donne model are also well-known and widely referred. Computational Fluid Dynamics is another typical approach to predict the pressure drop of wire-wrapped fuel rod bundle, but it requires the model validation because the accuracy of pressure drop prediction by the CFD simulation depends on what turbulence model is employed. The present work aims at evaluating the existing pressure drop correlations for the wire-wrapped fuel rod bundle and evaluating the pressure drop of 217-pin rod bundle by the CFD analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectroscopic quantification of projection effects in the SDSS redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue

ABSTRACT Projection effects, whereby galaxies along the line of sight to a galaxy cluster are mistakenly associated with the cluster halo, present a significant challenge for optical cluster cosmology. We use statistically representative spectral coverage of luminous galaxies to investigate how projection effects impact the low-redshift limit of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue. Spectroscopic redshifts enable us to differentiate true cluster members from false positives and determine the fraction of candidate cluster members viewed in projection. Our main results can be summarized as follows: first, we show that a simple double-Gaussian model can be used to describe the distribution of line-of-sight velocities in the redMaPPer sample; secondly, the incidence of projection effects is substantial, accounting for ∼16 per cent of the weighted richness for the lowest richness objects; thirdly, projection effects are a strong function of richness, with the contribution in the highest richness bin being several times smaller than for low-richness objects; fourthly, our measurement has a similar amplitude to state-of-the-art models, but finds a steeper dependence of projection effects on richness than these models; and fifthly, the slope of the observed velocity dispersion–richness relation, corrected for projection effects, implies an approximately linear relationship between the true, three-dimensional halo mass and three-dimensional richness. Our results provide a robust, empirical description of the impact of projection effects on the SDSS redMaPPer cluster sample and exemplify the synergies between optical imaging and spectroscopic data for studies of galaxy cluster astrophysics and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Floquet insulators and lattice fermions beyond naive time discretization

Periodically driven quantum systems known as Floquet insulators can host topologically protected bound states known as “ π modes” that exhibit response at half the frequency of the drive. Such states can also appear in undriven lattice field theories when time is discretized as a result of fermion doubling, raising the question of whether these two phenomena could be connected. Recently we demonstrated such a connection at the level of an explicit mapping between the spectra of a continuous-time Floquet model and a discrete-time undriven lattice fermion model. However, this mapping relied on a symmetry of the single-particle spectrum that is not present for generic drive parameters. Inspired by the example of the temporal Wilson term in lattice field theory, in this paper we extend this mapping to the full drive parameter space by allowing the parameters of the discrete-time model to be frequency-dependent. The spectra of the resulting lattice fermion models exactly match the quasienergy spectrum of the Floquet model in the thermodynamic limit. Our results demonstrate that spectral features characteristic of beyond-equilibrium physics in Floquet systems can be replicated in static systems with appropriate time discretization. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2022

The symmetric quasi-classical model using on-the-fly time-dependent density functional theory within the Tamm–Dancoff approximation

The primary computational challenge when simulating nonadiabatic ab initio molecular dynamics is the unfavourable compute costs of electronic structure calculations with molecular size. Simple electronic structure theories, like time-dependent density functional theory within the Tamm–Dancoff approximation (TDDFT/TDA), alleviate this cost for moderately sized molecular systems simulated on realistic time scales. Although TDDFT/TDA does have some limitations in accuracy, an appealing feature is that, in addition to including electron correlation through the use of a density functional, the cost of calculating analytic nuclear gradients and nonadiabatic coupling vectors is often computationally feasible even for moderately sized basis sets. Here in this work, some of the benefits and limitations of TDDFT/TDA are discussed and analysed with regard to its applicability as a ‘back-end’ electronic structure method for the symmetric quasi-classical Meyer–Miller model (SQC/MM). In order to investigate the benefits and limitations of TDDFT/TDA, SQC/MM is employed to predict and analyse a prototypical example of excited-state hydrogen transfer in gas-phase malonaldehyde. Then, the ring-opening dynamics of selenophene are simulated, which highlight some of the deficiencies of TDDFT/TDA. Additionally, some new algorithms are proposed that speed up the calculation of analytic nuclear gradients and nonadiabatic coupling vectors for a set of excited electronic states.

molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic room temperature creep of 316 L stainless steel

The creep behavior of 316 L stainless steel at room temperature was evaluated as a function of time and applied stress using a new high-throughput approach. Several common creep models were evaluated against the observations, leading to deeper analysis of a stress-dependent modified logarithmic creep model. Within this model, multiple sources of uncertainty were compared. Aleatoric stochastic variation between samples under nominally identical conditions was identified as the primary contributor to uncertainty in creep response. Under any particular set of conditions, the sample-to-sample variability in creep strain was as high as a factor of two, highlighting the engineering importance of characterizing large statistical datasets. The model's extrapolation capabilities were assessed by comparing predictions derived from calibration on partial, shorter-duration subsets of the data. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of accounting for stochastic effects in predictive modeling of aging phenomena.

High-throughput↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Water-Power System Resilience Analysis in a Southeastern Idaho Irrigation District: Minidoka Case Study

This study investigates the joint water–power system resilience of an irrigation district in southeastern Idaho. Irrigation districts face difficulties in the delivery of water to farmers under drought conditions, during equipment failures, or unplanned infrastructure disruptions. The resilience of interconnected water and power systems can be better analyzed and understood through an integrated approach, using a model that connects the dependencies between the two halves of the system. Using a multi-agent system model capturing both water and power system components, as well as their linkages, we capture the interdependencies of these systems and highlight opportunities for improvement when faced with disruptions. Through simulation scenarios, we examine the system resilience using system performance, quantified as the percentage of met demand of the power and water system, when subjected to drought water year, an unforeseen water demand increase, power outage and dam failure. Scenario results indicate that the effects of low flow years are mostly felt in the power system; unexpected increases in water demand marginally impact irrigation system performance; dams and pumps present vulnerabilities of the system, causing substantial unmet demand during disruptions. Noting the interdependencies between the water–power system halves while leveraging an integrated simulation allows for an insightful analysis of the system impacts during disruptions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ectomycorrhizal effects on decomposition are highly dependent on fungal traits, climate, and litter properties: A model-based assessment

It has been proposed that competition between ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi and free-living saprotrophs for resources like nitrogen (N) slows decomposition and increases the soil carbon storage in ECM ecosystems compared to arbuscular (AM) ecosystems. However, empirical evidence for the generality of such ECM effects is equivocal, and confounding mechanisms have been proposed that affect the magnitude and direction of ECM effects on soil carbon. Here, for this work, we conduct a theoretical modeling experiment, where we explicitly incorporate mycorrhizal processes into the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model. We use the model to explore the conditions under which ECM N acquisition processes can induce stronger saprotrophic N limitation and result in slower decomposition rates and greater soil organic carbon accumulation compared to AM processes. We found that the ECM fungi more strongly inhibited decomposition when litter inputs were N-depleted and relatively recalcitrant and when ECM fungi possessed a strong capacity to mine N from both recalcitrant soil organic matter and microbial necromass. Climate and seasonality also played a role as the ECM competition effect was strongest at low mean annual temperatures and when litterfall peaked seasonally. Priming effects driven by high root exudation rates in ECM-dominated systems could overwhelm the competition effect and reduce soil carbon under some circumstances. The ECM effect on decomposition in our simulations was highly context dependent. Based on our model results, we expect to see a strong ECM competition effect in temperate deciduous and boreal forests with relatively recalcitrant litter inputs, and with ECM fungi that produce oxidases and necromass-degrading enzymes. However, even a relatively strong ECM competition effect on decomposition only increased soil organic carbon accumulation by ~10%.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical Investigation of the Adsorbate and Potential–Induced Stability of Cu Facets During Electrochemical CO 2 and CO Reduction

The activity and product selectivity of electrocatalysts for reactions like the carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) are intimately dependent on the catalyst's structure and composition. While engineering catalytic surfaces can improve performance, discovering the key sets of rational design principles remains challenging due to limitations in modeling catalyst stability under operating conditions. Herein, we perform first-principles density functional calculations adopting implicit solvation methods with potential control to study the influence of adsorbates and applied potential on the stability of different facets of model Cu electrocatalysts. Using coverage dependencies extracted from microkinetic models, we describe an approach for calculating potential and adsorbate-dependent contributions to surface energies under reaction conditions, where Wulff constructions are used to understand the morphological evolution of Cu electrocatalysts under CO 2 RR conditions. Here we identify that CO*, a key reaction intermediate, exhibits higher kinetically and thermodynamically accessible coverages on (100) relative to (111) facets, which can translate into an increased relative stabilization of the (100) facet during CO 2 RR. Our results support the known tendency for increased (111) faceting of Cu nanoparticles under more reducing conditions and that the relative increase in (100) faceting observed under CO 2 RR conditions is likely attributed to differences in CO* coverage between these facets.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent-bases with local CUR decomposition method for accelerating turbulent combustion simulations

Here, this study presents a novel reduced-order modeling framework, Time-Dependent Bases with Local CUR decomposition (TDB-L-CUR), designed to efficiently and accurately approximate the species transport equations in reacting flow simulations. The method extends the existing TDB-CUR approach for chemically reacting flows (Jung et al. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 437 (2025) 117758), which leverages matrix decomposition techniques to form a global-in-space, time-dependent low-dimensional manifold. While TDB-CUR performs well in homogeneous systems, it may be less well-suited to spatially heterogeneous systems such as turbulent flames, where higher-rank approximations are typically required. The proposed TDB-L-CUR framework introduces two methodological extensions to the baseline approach. First, it applies unsupervised clustering to partition the physical domain into distinct regions, enabling spatially localized manifold construction, thereby reducing the rank required for the reduced-order representation. Second, it incorporates a computational singular perturbation (CSP)-based scheme for identifying and penalizing fast species, allowing for spatio-temporally adaptive mitigation of chemical stiffness. The proposed framework is validated on a hierarchy of test cases, including a one-dimensional premixed flame, a two-dimensional nonpremixed ignition case with vortex interaction, and a three-dimensional turbulent premixed flame. TDB-L-CUR significantly improves accuracy over TDB-CUR while further reducing computational cost. The fully on-the-fly formulation of TDB-L-CUR (i.e., requiring no offline training or prior knowledge) makes it a robust and scalable tool for reduced-order modeling of reactive flows.

Local manifold↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shaping effects on scrape-off layer plasma turbulence: A rigorous validation of three-dimensional simulations against TCV measurements

The effect of plasma shaping on scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma turbulence is investigated through a rigorous validation exercise. Two- and three-dimensional simulations of the SOL plasma dynamics in three TCV limited discharges are carried out with the GBS code. These discharges realize an almost circular magnetic equilibrium, an elongated equilibrium, and an elongated equilibrium with negative triangularity. For the three plasma discharges, three simulations are performed, considering (i) a three-dimensional model with an explicit dependence on elongation, triangularity, and the inverse aspect ratio; (ii) a circular three-dimensional model in the infinite aspect ratio limit; and (iii) a two-dimensional model, which assumes a circular magnetic equilibrium in the infinite aspect ratio limit, cold ions, and interchange driven turbulence in the sheath limited regime. Ten validation observables common to simulations and experimental measurements from a reciprocating probe located at the TCV outer midplane are identified, and the agreement between experimental and numerical results relative to each observable is evaluated. The composite metric introduced by Ricci et al. [Phys. Plasmas 18, 032109 (2011)] is then used to assess the overall agreement between simulations and experimental measurements. It is found that the shaping model implemented in GBS improves the description of SOL plasma turbulence, taking into account the impact of elongation and triangularity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind plant wake losses: Disconnect between turbine actuation and control of plant wakes with engineering wake models

Wake losses from neighboring plants may become a major factor in wind plant design and control as additional plants are constructed in areas with high wind resource availability. Because plant wakes span a large range of physical scales, from turbine rotor diameter to tens of kilometers, it is unclear whether conventional wake models or turbine control strategies are effective at the plant scale. Wake steering and axial induction control are evaluated in the current work as means of reducing the impact of neighboring wind plants on power and levelized cost of electricity. FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) simulations were performed with the Gauss–Curl Hybrid and TurbOPark wake models as well as two operation and maintenance models to investigate control setpoint sensitivity to wake representation and economic factors. Both wake models estimate losses across a range of atmospheric conditions, although the wake loss magnitude is dependent on the wake model. Annual energy production and levelized cost of electricity are driven by wind direction frequency, with frequently aligned plants experiencing the greatest losses. However, both wake steering and axial induction are unable to mitigate the impact of upstream plants. Wake steering is constrained by plant geometry, since wake displacement is much less than the plant wake width, while axial induction requires curtailing the majority of turbines in upstream plants. Individual turbine strategies are limited by their effective scale and model representation. New wake models that include plant-scale physics are needed to facilitate the design of effective plant wake control strategies.

Scott, Ryan (ORCID:0000000328107574)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of marine organic aerosols as sources of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles on high-latitude mixed-phase clouds

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in high-latitude regions and have important impacts on the surface energy budget and regional climate. Marine organic aerosol (MOA), a natural source of aerosol emitted over ~70 % of Earth's surface, may significantly modify the properties and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds. However, the relative importance of MOA as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to mineral dust, and MOA's effects as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and INPs on mixed-phase clouds are still open questions. In this study, we implement MOA as a new aerosol species into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmosphere component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), and allow the treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions of MOA via droplet activation and ice nucleation. CAM6 reproduces observed seasonal cycles of marine organic matter at Mace Head and Amsterdam Island when the MOA fraction of sea spray aerosol in the model is assumed to depend on sea spray biology but fails when this fraction is assumed to be constant. Model results indicate that marine INPs dominate primary ice nucleation below 400 hPa over the Southern Ocean and Arctic boundary layer, while dust INPs are more abundant elsewhere. By acting as CCN, MOA exerts a shortwave cloud forcing change of -2.78 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral summer. By acting as INPs, MOA enhances the longwave cloud forcing by 0.35 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral winter. The annual global mean net cloud forcing changes due to CCN and INPs of MOA are -0.35 and 0.016 W m-2, respectively. These findings highlight the vital importance for Earth system models to consider MOA as an important aerosol species for the interactions of biogeochemistry, hydrological cycle, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

MOSAIC-CONUS: A Multimodal, Multi-Temporally Paired Dataset for Earth Sciences

Earth embeddings—vector representations of geographic locations indexed in space and time—are emerging as a unifying interface for geospatial AI. However, their quality depends not only on model design, but on how multimodal Earth observation (EO) data are spatially indexed, temporally aligned, and cross-modally associated during pretraining. We introduce MOSAIC-CONUS (Multimodal Observations with Spatially Aligned Imagery, Urban Points of Interest, In-Situ Measurements and Text Captions), a large-scale EO dataset over the contiguous United States, organized around 250,000 stratified point indices that serve as stable spatial keys across seven modalities: active radar, passive optical imagery, lidar-derived elevation, land cover, functional context, hydrometeorological measurements, and textual summaries. Unlike existing EO datasets, MOSAIC-CONUS introduces four contributions not jointly addressed in prior work: 1. an open-source, large-scale multimodal EO corpus structured around point-indexed data designed to support Earth embedding learning; 2. explicit radar-optical pairing tables spanning twelve temporal alignment regimes, formalizing cross-sensor alignment as a controllable variable for analyzing how temporal mismatch across modalities influences learned embeddings quality; 3. a benchmark suite spanning cross-modal retrieval, annual nightlights regression, and basin-held-out streamflow prediction, positioning MOSAIC-CONUS as a benchmark-ready resource for multimodal AI systems; and 4. a language-based embedding layer through co-registered textual summaries, enabling Earth embeddings to function as a queryable interface for agentic AI systems. The dataset and pairing protocols are publicly released.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗