Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cost model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40

Concepts for Next Generation Grating Spectrometer Imaging Atmospheric Sounders from LEO and GEO

Spaceborne infrared atmospheric sounders measure the spectrum of the upwelling radiance in the infrared with ultra-high spectral resolution. The resolution is sufficient to measure absorption features of atmospheric constituents enabling retrieval of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles, surface emission and atmospheric constituents. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua launched in May of 2002 was the first hyperspectral infrared sounder designed for this purpose and is still operational today. AIRS has been followed by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on MetOp A and B, and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on Suomi NPP and JPSS. All instruments are operating well improving weather forecast and providing a wealth of information about the atmosphere. Additional CrIS and IASI instruments are expected to be launched providing data of this type into the late 2030’s. AIRS, CrIS and IASI are all Low Earth Orbit (LEO) instruments with nominal spatial resolutions of 14km. Future IR sounders must achieve higher spatial and temporal resolution to match improvements in forecast models and be less costly to match anticipated future budget pressures. Higher temporal resolution can be achieved in several ways including operation in Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) or in constellations of SmallSats and CubeSats. Higher spatial resolution can be achieved using larger format focal plane assemblies in the instruments and larger aperture telescopes. Grating spectrometers are well suited to large format FPAs by allowing a wide field of view in a compact package. Concepts for next generation grating spectrometer IR sounders that have been developed over the years at JPL are presented along with technology advancements made to enable these concepts to achieve their stated goals.

Pagano, Thomas S.↗

The use of parametric cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft systems in establishing initial Design to Cost Targets

This paper provides a brief overview of Design to Cost (DTC). Problems inherent in attempting to estimate costs are discussed, along with techniques and types of models that have been developed to estimate aircraft costs. A set of cost estimating relationships that estimate the total production cost of commercial and military transport aircraft at the systems level is presented and the manner in which these equations might be used effectively in developing initial DTC targets is indicated. The principal point made in this paper is that, by using a disagregated set of equations to estimate transport aircraft costs at the systems level, reasonably accurate preliminary cost estimates may be achieved. These estimates may serve directly as initial DTC targets, or adjustments may be made to the estimates obtained for some of the systems to estimate the production cost impact of alternative designs or manufacturing technologies. The relative ease by which estimates may be made with this model, the flexibility it provides by being disaggregated, and the accuracy of the estimates it provides make it a unique and useful tool in establishing initial DTC targets.

Beltramo, M. N.↗

A Case Study of AI-assisted Creation of a Thermodynamics Model of Precipitation Formation During Rapid Depressurization of a Vented Container

Precipitation may form in humid containers undergoing rapid depressurization. This precipitation may be liquid, i.e. fog, if the dewpoint is crossed above the freezing point of water, or direct snow crystallization if the dewpoint is crossed below the freezing point. Accurate modeling of this effect is potentially important for rapidly ascending vented containers in aircraft, spacecraft, and launch vehicles, as well as rapidly depressurizing vacuum chambers. A transient thermodynamics model of precipitation formation during the rapid depressurization of a container was developed in python. The model is written for a generic container and includes an optional water pool and water vapor source. Details of the model and results from several example cases spanning the full capabilities of the model, including a validation case, will be presented. Although the model is not novel, in contrast to prior works, this one was treated as a case study of the assistance of AI Large Language Models (LLMs) to create physical models. Impressions, performance, time, and cost of using AI for this task will be discussed.

precipitation↗

Cost reduction potential of the DSN data base

The cost of the DSN data base can be reduced by computerizing and unifying the current multiplicity of separate manual, computer, and hybrid data bases. Savings would accrue from eliminating all manual system costs, increasing efficiency in data base implementation and maintenance-and-operation, and increasing data accuracy. By applying a simple mathematical savings model to current data base costs, this study estimates the probable range of net ten-year savings. The minimum net savings, under the assumptions of the study, are calculated as $7.5 million.

Mckenzie, M.↗

Costing the satellite power system

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Waterjet Impeller

North American Marine Jet (NAMJ), Inc. received assistance from Marshall Space Flight Center engineers in the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) branch of the Structure and Dynamics Laboratory in improving the proposed design of a new impeller for their jet-propulsion systems. Marshall used advanced CFD techniques, which included creating a three-dimensional computer model of the impeller for analysis. With Marshall input, the company modified the design, then Marshall used a computer model to make a solid polycarbonate model. The rapid prototyping allowed the company to avoid many time- consuming and costly steps in creating the impeller model. NAMJ is now able to compete with Pacific-area and European manufacturers who have traditionally dominated the market.

Source record↗

Impact of mismodeled idle engine performance on calculation and tracking of optimal 4-D descent trajectories

Advanced flight management systems are being developed which are capable of calculating optimal 3-D and 4-D flight trajectories for arbitrary fuel and time costs. These systems require mathematical models of airplane performance in order to compute the optimal profiles. Mismodeled idle engine characteristics can result in descent trajectories requiring excessive throttle and/or speedbrake activity in order to achieve the desired end conditions. This paper evaluates the cost and fuel penalties, trajectory variations, and flight control requirements associated with typical idle engine modeling errors for a twin-jet transport airplane. Variations in idle power setting, thrust, fuel flow, and surge bleed operation were evaluated for a cruise/descent flight segment. The results of this analysis provide insight into the penalties associated with uncertainties in idle engine performance and suggest methods of modeling which minimize these penalties.

Williams, D. H.↗

A-Priori Tuning of Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for that particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor simulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗

Tuning Process for the Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for a particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor sim- ulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. In order to improve the agreement with flame temperatures, the thermal properties of the product species is adjusted to better match the mixture proper- ties of the full mechanism. The combustion model is then applied to the simulation of a representative scramjet flowpath, and the results compared to experimental data and other kinetic models. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for CFD simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗

Multi-Fidelity Heating Prediction of Adaptable, Deployable Entry Placement Technology Vehicles

The objective of this work was to investigate a multi-fidelity modeling approach to accurately and efficiently predict the laminar and turbulent convective heating on adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicles in Mars entry. A previously developed co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach was used to model the laminar and turbulent convective heat fluxes at several surface locations along the vehicle, including the rib sections. The laminar convective heat flux multi-fidelity model was found to have a mean convective heat rate error of approximately 3% when compared to high-fidelity CFD simulations. The turbulent convective heat flux multi-fidelity model was found to have a mean convective heat rate error of approximately 8% when compared to high-fidelity CFD simulations. Compared to a single fidelity model, the multi-fidelity model required approximately one-third the number of high-fidelity model evaluations to obtain the same accuracy level. The computational cost of evaluating the multi-fidelity model was approximately five orders of magnitude less than one high-fidelity model simulation.

Mario Santos↗

Hydrogen from coal cost estimation guidebook

In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.

Billings, R. E.↗

Distributed Aviation Concepts and Technologies

Aviation has experienced one hundred years of evolution, resulting in the current air transportation system dominated by commercial airliners in a hub and spoke infrastructure. While the first fifty years involved disruptive technologies that required frequent vehicle adaptation, the second fifty years produced a stable evolutionary optimization of decreasing costs with increasing safety. This optimization has resulted in traits favoring a centralized service model with high vehicle productivity and cost efficiency. However, it may also have resulted in a system that is not sufficiently robust to withstand significant system disturbances. Aviation is currently facing rapid change from issues such as environmental damage, terrorism threat, congestion and capacity limitations, and cost of energy. Currently, these issues are leading to a loss of service for weaker spoke markets. These catalysts and a lack of robustness could result in a loss of service for much larger portions of the aviation market. The impact of other competing transportation services may be equally important as casual factors of change. Highway system forecasts indicate a dramatic slow down as congestion reaches a point of non-linearly increasing delay. In the next twenty-five years, there is the potential for aviation to transform itself into a more robust, scalable, adaptive, secure, safe, affordable, convenient, efficient and environmentally friendly system. To achieve these characteristics, the new system will likely be based on a distributed model that enables more direct services. Short range travel is already demonstrating itself to be inefficient with a centralized model, providing opportunities for emergent distributed services through air-taxi models. Technologies from the on-demand revolution in computers and communications are now available as major drivers for aviation on-demand adaptation. Other technologies such as electric propulsion are currently transforming the automobile industry, and will also significantly alter the functionality of future distributed aviation concepts. Many hurdles exist, including technology, regulation, and perception. Aviation has an inherent governmental role not present in other recent on-demand transformations, which may pose a risk of curtailing aviation democratization .

Moore, Mark D.↗

Evaluation of the CEAS trend and monthly weather data models for soybean yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

The CEAS models evaluated use historic trend and meteorological and agroclimatic variables to forecast soybean yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Indicators of yield reliability and current measures of modeled yield reliability were obtained from bootstrap tests on the end of season models. Indicators of yield reliability show that the state models are consistently better than the crop reporting district (CRD) models. One CRD model is especially poor. At the state level, the bias of each model is less than one half quintal/hectare. The standard deviation is between one and two quintals/hectare. The models are adequate in terms of coverage and are to a certain extent consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield estimates can be made during the growing season using truncated models. The models are easy to understand and use and are not costly to operate. Other than the specification of values used to determine evapotranspiration, the models are objective. Because the method of variable selection used in the model development is adequately documented, no evaluation can be made of the objectivity and cost of redevelopment of the model.

French, V.↗

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

Sherry, Lance↗

Experimental Determination of the Dynamic Hydraulic Transfer Function for the J-2X Oxidizer Turbopump: Methodology - Part One

An advanced methodology for extracting the hydraulic dynamic pump transfer matrix (Yp) for a cavitating liquid rocket engine turbopump inducer+impeller has been developed. The transfer function is required for integrated vehicle pogo stability analysis as well as optimization of local inducer pumping stability. Laboratory pulsed subscale waterflow test of the J-2X oxygen turbo pump is introduced and our new extraction method applied to the data collected. From accurate measures of pump inlet and discharge perturbational mass flows and pressures, and one-dimensional flow models that represents complete waterflow loop physics, we are able to derive Yp and hence extract the characteristic pump parameters: compliance, pump gain, impedance, mass flow gain. Detailed modeling is necessary to accurately translate instrument plane measurements to the pump inlet and discharge and extract Yp. We present the MSFC Dynamic Lump Parameter Fluid Model Framework and describe critical dynamic component details. We report on fit minimization techniques, cost (fitness) function derivation, and resulting model fits to our experimental data are presented. Comparisons are made to alternate techniques for spatially translating measurement stations to actual pump inlet and discharge.

Zoladz, Tom↗

Design of advanced technology maneuvering aircraft models for the National Transonic Facility

The need for a large High-Reynolds-Number Transonic Wind Tunnel which will provide a tool to study phenomena sensitive to Reynolds number is discussed. The National Transonic Facility (NTF), is in the calibration phase and the desired capability. Its usefulness, however, will be influenced by the ability of industry to develop model systems capable of withstanding the severe operating environment of the facility so necessary to achieve full scale Reynolds number, without degradation of accuracy, and at reasonable cost. The feasibility of designing models of advanced aerodynamic technology maneuvering aircraft and to achieve full scale Reynolds number for each configuration in the NTF are determined. It is concluded that the facility does not offer the potential for making tunnel to full scale data correlations for this type of aircraft configuration.

Griffin, S. A.↗

Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

Heffley, Robert K.↗