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At least 721 records · Page 40

Formation Flying and Position Determination for a Space-Based Interferometer in GEO Graveyard Orbit

Spacecraft formations enable a variety of mission concepts, from gravity reconstruction to extrasolar planet detection to heliophysics observatories. In particular, space-based radio interferometers can detect signals in frequency ranges that are absorbed by Earth’s ionosphere or atmosphere. Furthermore, such formation missions are now feasible under constrained cost caps due to the growing availability of SmallSat components with spaceflight heritage that are compatible the CubeSat formfactor. Accordingly, we analyze a mission concept operating multiple SmallSats in a passive cluster to establish a space-based interferometer. The goal of this array is to reconstruct radio emissions associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from the Sun, giving us insight into the particle acceleration occurring during these events. This low-cost mission concept presents a number of unique challenges in regards to mission design and navigation, particularly the configuration of the spacecraft to optimize science return and the reconstruction of precise spacecraft-spacecraft separation values. After providing a brief overview of the mission concept, this paper presents several key features of the mission design and orbit determination strategy that enable this potential heliophysics mission.

Filipe, Nuno↗

Practical considerations in aeroelastic design

The structural design process for large transport aircraft is described. Critical loads must be determined from a large number of load cases within the flight maneuver envelope. The structural design is also constrained by considerations of producibility, reliability, maintainability, durability, and damage tolerance, as well as impact dynamics and multiple constraints due to flutter and aeroelasticity. Aircraft aeroelastic design considerations in three distinct areas of product development (preliminary design, advanced design, and detailed design) are presented and contrasted. The present state of the art is challenged to solve the practical difficulties associated with design, analysis, and redesign within cost and schedule constraints. The current practice consists of largely independent engineering disciplines operating with unorganized data interfaces. The need is then demonstrated for a well-planned computerized aeroelastic structural design optimization system operating with a common interdisciplinary data base. This system must incorporate automated interfaces between modular programs. In each phase of the design process, a common finite-element model for static and dynamic optimization is required to reduce errors due to modeling discrepancies. As the design proceeds from the simple models in preliminary design to the more complex models in advanced and detailed design, a means of retrieving design data from the previous models must be established.

Rommel, B. A.↗

Prediction of structures and magnetic orientations in solid alpha and beta-O2

A quasi-harmonic-lattice-dynamics method coupled with a pattern-recognition optimization scheme is used to determine the minimum energy structures and magnetic orientations of solid oxygen. It is shown that the magnetic interaction is responsible for the stability of alpha-O2 with respect to beta-O2 at zero temperature and pressure. The calculated alpha-O2 lattice parameters, magnetic orientations, and sublimation energy are in good agreement with experiment. Phonon dispersion curves are calculated at vector k not equal to zero and the acoustic sound velocities are determined. The rms translational and orientational fluctuations from equilibrium are also calculated. The beta-O2 phase is described by constraining the magnetic moments so that the magnetic Hamiltonian preserves the hexagonal symmetry of the crystal. The calculated lattice parameters are in good agreement with the experiments, and a three-sublattice, quasi-helical magnetic orientation is predicted from structural and energetic considerations.

Etters, R. D.↗

Exotic Optical Fibers and Glasses: Innovative Material Processing Opportunities in Earth's Orbit

Exotic optical fibers and glasses are the platform material for photonics applications, primarily due to their superior signal transmission (speed, low attenuation), with extending bandwidth deep into the infrared, exceeding that of silica fibers. Gravitational effects (convection sedimentation) have a direct impact on the phase diagram of these materials and influence melting properties, crystallization temperatures, and viscosity of the elemental mix during the manufacturing process. Such factors constitute limits to the yield, transmission quality, and strength and value of these fibers; they also constrain the range of applications. Manufacturing in a gravity-free environment such as the Earth’s Orbit also helps with other aspects of the fabrication process (i.e., improved form factor of the manufacturing unit, sustainability). In this article, revolutionary developments in the field of photonics over the past decade merge with the paradigm shift in the privatization of government-owned capabilities supporting a more diverse infrastructure (parabolic, suborbital, orbital), reduced price, and increased frequency to access space and the microgravity environment. With the increased dependence on data (demand, bandwidth, efficiency), space and the microgravity environment provide opportunities for optimized performance of these exotic optical fibers and glasses underlying the development of enabling technologies to meet future data demand. Existing terrestrial markets (Internet, telecommunications, market transactions) and emerging space markets (onorbit satellite servicing, space manufacturing, space resources, space communications, etc.) seem to converge, and this innovative material processing opportunity of exotic optical fibers and glasses might just be that ‘‘killer app’’: technologically competitive, economically viable, and with the ability to close the business case.

Ioana Cozmuta↗

Design and Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System

This paper describes the design, development and results from a high fidelity human-in-the-loop simulation of an integrated set of trajectory-based automation tools providing precision scheduling, sequencing and controller merging and spacing functions. These integrated functions are combined into a system called the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system. It is a strategic and tactical planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators, En Route and Terminal Radar Approach Control air traffic controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the arrival capacity of a demand-impacted airport while simultaneously enabling fuel-efficient descent procedures. The TAPSS system consists of four-dimensional trajectory prediction, arrival runway balancing, aircraft separation constraint-based scheduling, traffic flow visualization and trajectory-based advisories to assist controllers in efficient metering, sequencing and spacing. The TAPSS system was evaluated and compared to today's ATC operation through extensive series of human-in-the-loop simulations for arrival flows into the Los Angeles International Airport. The test conditions included the variation of aircraft demand from a baseline of today's capacity constrained periods through 5%, 10% and 20% increases. Performance data were collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations both with and without the TAPSS system. The engineering data indicate operations with the TAPSS show up to a 10% increase in airport throughput during capacity constrained periods while maintaining fuel-efficient aircraft descent profiles from cruise to landing.

Swenson, Harry N.↗

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Small convolution kernels for high-fidelity image restoration

An algorithm is developed for computing the mean-square-optimal values for small, image-restoration kernels. The algorithm is based on a comprehensive, end-to-end imaging system model that accounts for the important components of the imaging process: the statistics of the scene, the point-spread function of the image-gathering device, sampling effects, noise, and display reconstruction. Subject to constraints on the spatial support of the kernel, the algorithm generates the kernel values that restore the image with maximum fidelity, that is, the kernel minimizes the expected mean-square restoration error. The algorithm is consistent with the derivation of the spatially unconstrained Wiener filter, but leads to a small, spatially constrained kernel that, unlike the unconstrained filter, can be efficiently implemented by convolution. Simulation experiments demonstrate that for a wide range of imaging systems these small kernels can restore images with fidelity comparable to images restored with the unconstrained Wiener filter.

Reichenbach, Stephen E.↗

Datascope to Enable Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO)

BACKGROUND: NASA has amassed sixty years of knowledge and experience relevant to maintenance of crew health and performance in low earth orbit. The Apollo Program introduced the importance of ensuring progressively autonomous operational capability. Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) will require a gradual shift in the balance of medical responsibility, management, and authority from terrestrial to space-based assets. Terrestrial assets will continue to be essential for pre-mission screening and planning in addition to maintenance of crew health and performance. However, new capabilities are needed to enable EIMO and the amount of data required to support these systems, and mitigate the impacts of data transmission delays and reduced bandwidth coupled with lack of cloud-like resources and on-board computing capacity that is currently unclear or operationally insufficient. OVERVIEW: The overall goal of EIMO is to develop artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions to analyze crew health and performance data utilizing a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to provide crew medical officers (CMO) with the equivalent of real-time, on-board medical consults. The EIMO ecosystem is envisioned as a “system of systems” where embedded reference databases and real-time data streams from multiple input vectors continuously and seamlessly assess crew health and performance. EIMO will be designed to make recommendations to the CMO using multi-modal AI-based natural language processing and machine learning methods with interoperability to push/pull data within and between multiple vehicle and habitat architectures. DISCUSSION: Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during space missions and the challenges will become even greater during exploration missions. Just as each past program from Mercury to the International Space Station (ISS) required rethinking the interaction between ground-based controllers and space-based crew, so too will future missions to the Moon and Mars. While the NASA High-Performance Spaceflight Computing Processor project aims to increase computational capacity by 100 times over current spaceflight computers, the projected deliverable still lags considerably behind what will be needed to enable an AI-driven CDSS. Restrictions in processing speed and data storage capacity, coupled with transmission bottlenecks and delays, necessitate definition and optimization of an integrated data architecture to enable a progressively autonomous medical capability.

Medical operations↗

Constraining Oceanic Sources and Sinks of CO2 by Inverse Modeling: A First Step Toward Assimilation of In Situ and Remote Data

The primary goal of this collaborative project, lead by Nicholas Gruber at UCLA, is to better quantify the air-sea fluxes of pre-industrial and anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 for the global ocean with a newly developed inverse method. The method involves using ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) to characterize the subsurface distribution of tracers injected for different regions of the ocean surface. By linearly combining a series of these basis (or Greens) functions, one should be able to recreate any arbitrary ocean tracer field. In our case, we are using the global database of ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the WOCE/JGOFS global CO2 survey from the 1990s. The observed DIC field has been partitioned into pre-industrial and anthropogenic components using the empirical C* technique. We then solve for an optimal combination of the regional basis functions that best match the two sets observations in a least-squares sense with singular value decomposition. This in turn provides solutions for the regional air-sea CO2 fluxes (pre-industrial and anthropogenic) that are independent of more traditional estimates derived from surface water disequilibria in the partial pressure of CO2 and wind speed gas exchange parameterizations. We are apply the method to a suite of nine different OGCMs to test the robustness of the derived surface fluxes fields to differences in ocean circulation. Together with a collegue Keith Lindsay at NCAR, S. Doney's role in this project was to create the appropriate steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions from the NCAR CSM-1 ocean circulation model. Because of a slow start across the project in defining a common set of experimental protocols, we requested and were given a one year, no cost extension. Both the steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions were delivered to the UCLA group for further analysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Doney, Scott↗

Constrained low-thrust guidance.

Constrained low thrust guidance algorithms for three axis and spin-stabilized, constant power, solar electric propelled spacecraft on fixed time rendezvous missions are developed. A 'bang-bang' type of minimum-propellant thrust program is used. Control constraints arise from the specification that the thrust vector must remain fixed relative to the solar panels. The guidance law is derived from deterministic linear perturbation theory and is controllable to first order on trajectories containing at least two thrust arcs. The number and timing of guidance updates and the effectiveness of the guidance law in compensating for state and control estimation biases and uncertainties are discussed. Numerical comparisons between the optimal control and the restricted control case are presented on a Encke comet rendezvous.

Ungs, M. J.↗

Neo – Mars Adaptive Training Integrative Knowledge System (MATRIKS) to Improve Operational Performance and its Neural Basis for Spaceflight

With prolonged mission durations, spaceflight crews will become increasingly dependent on onboard technologies for knowledge acquisition and maintenance. It is expected that not all skills and knowledge required for these missions can be retained and retrieved based on pre-mission training alone. Limited and delayed communication will significantly constrain support from Mission Control and crews will increasingly rely on autonomous onboard technologies to successfully perform post-landing operations. With the present project we will target NASA’s particular interest in developing and assessing an adaptive, just-in-time countermeasure that will consolidate and improve skills that are most relevant to space flight operations. To achieve this aim, NASA established a Virtual NASA Specialized Center of Research (VNSCOR)referred to as “Mars Adaptive Training Integrative Knowledge System (MATRIKS)”, comprising the following three projects: (1) “Trinity–Multi-Environment Virtual Training for Long Duration Exploration Missions”, PI: A. Anderson (UC Boulder); (2) “Morpheus–A Haptic Sensory Supplement to Optimize In-Flight Adaptive Training for Human Control of Spacecraft Robotic Arms”, PI: S. Robinson, UC Davis); and the present project “Neo–Adaptive Training integrative knowledge System to Improve Operational Performance and its Neural Basis for Spaceflight” (UPenn, PI: A.C. Stahn). Neo leverages a validated workstation called 6DF that simulates a rendezvous and docking maneuver using real spacecraft flight dynamics. It is designed to (1) train and improve sensorimotor skills relevant for inflight and post-landing operational tasks; (2) feature an autonomous and adaptive training approach that does not rely on feedback from flight operations on the ground; (3) maximize the transfer of mission-relevant motor skills; (4) allow the assessment of the neural circuitry underlying the task; and (5) deliver the training in a motivating and meaningful way to astronauts. Neocomprises two overarching aims: First, we will identify the neural circuitry underlying spaceflight relevant tasks by performing a subset of the 6DFtaskduring functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)in a total of up to N=30 subjects with varying levels of 6DF training experience. Second, as part of the above-mentioned VNSCOR MATRIKS the proposed 6DF autonomous intelligent tutor system will be integrated in an additive manner with a haptic feedback intervention (Morpheus), and a multi-environment virtual trainer(Trinity).It is expected that Neo, Morpheus and Trinity mutually complement each other to facilitate an effective countermeasure tool to acquire and retain operational skills that are critical for exploration class missions. To assess the efficacy of this combined effort, the VNSCOR MATRIKS will collect data inN=16 crew members in one HERA campaign of 45 days duration with N=16 crew members(four missions with N=4 crew member seach).The primary goal is to identify changes in operational performance as assessed by NASA’s simulator of Canadarm2 operations, i.e., Robotic On-board Trainer (ROBoT-r) in response to MATRIKS. As part of Neo we will also identify if, and to what extent MATRIKS will promote transfer to general cognitive performance (Cognition battery), distinctive visuo-spatial tasks critical for telerobotic tasks (Spatial Cognition battery), and affect brain structural changes and the neural circuitry of key brain networks expected to be relevant for spaceflight-related performance. At the conclusion of the research, we will have defined and demonstrated the use of a neuroscience-based, adaptive training integrative knowledge system to potentially mitigate visuo-spatial and sensorimotor brain changes associated with prolonged isolation and confinement to reduce the likelihood or impact of potential decrements in human performance capabilities during long-duration space missions. The expected significance of this 4-year project relates to its relevance for facilitating effective countermeasure tools to acquire and retain operational skills that are critical for exploration class missions. This will support the development of necessary countermeasures and technologies in support of human space exploration, focusing on mitigating operational performance risks.

A C Stahn↗

A Concept for Flexible Operations and Optimized Traffic into Metroplex Regions

A "Flexible Flight Operations" concept for airport metroplexes was studied. A flexible flight is one whose destination airport is not assigned until a threshold is reached near the arrival area at which time the runway which reduces overall delay is assigned. The concept seeks to increase throughput by exploiting flexibility. The quantification of best-case benefits from the concept was pursued to establish whether concept research is warranted. Findings indicate that indeed the concept has potential for significant reductions in delay (and cost due to delay) in the N90 (NY/NJ) and SCT (Southern California) metroplexes. Delay reductions of nearly 26% are possible in N90 when 30% of the commercial airline flights are flexible (smartly selected by their low probability of connecting passengers); nearly 40% delay reduction is found when 50% of the flights are flexible. In the SCT metroplex, delay reductions estimates are greater. Greater reductions result at SCT since it is less constrained currently than N90, providing "more room" to take advantage of flexibility. Using the flexible operations concept for on-demand/air taxi and General Aviation flights were found to be beneficial at NY/NJ, indicating the flexible operations concepts may be useful to wide variety of users..

DeLaurentis, Daniel↗

Investigating the Nature of and Methods for Managing Metroplex Operations

A combination of traffic demand growth, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) technologies and operational concepts, and increased utilization of regional airports is expected to increase the occurrence and severity of coupling between operations at proximate airports. These metroplex phenomena constrain the efficiency and/or capacity of airport operations and, in NextGen, have the potential to reduce safety and prevent environmental benefits. Without understanding the nature of metroplexes and developing solutions that provide efficient coordination of operations between closely-spaced airports, the use of NextGen technologies and distribution of demand to regional airports may provide little increase in the overall metroplex capacity. However, the characteristics and control of metroplex operations have not received significant study. This project advanced the state of knowledge about metroplexes by completing three objectives: 1. developed a foundational understand of the nature of metroplexes; 2. provided a framework for discussing metroplexes; 3. suggested and studied an approach for optimally managing metroplexes that is consistent with other NextGen concepts

Atkins, Stephen↗

Efficient Trajectory Options Allocation for the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) intended to control the air traffic flow rates at multiple specified Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs), where demand exceeds capacity. CTOP allows flight operators to submit the desired Trajectory Options Set (TOS) for each affected flight with associated Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) for each option. CTOP then creates a feasible schedule that complies with capacity constraints by assigning affected flights with routes and departure delays in such a way as to minimize the total cost while maintaining equity across flight operators. The current version of CTOP implements a Ration-by-Schedule (RBS) scheme, which assigns the best available options to flights based on a First-Scheduled-First-Served heuristic. In the present study, an alternative flight scheduling approach is developed based on linear optimization. Results suggest that such an approach can significantly reduce flight delays, in the deterministic case, while maintaining equity as defined using a Max-Min fairness scheme.

Rodionova, O.↗

Autonomous Constrained Control for Arbitrary Thruster Configurations of Gimbaling Thrusters in SE(3)

In order to develop robust autonomy in spacecraft, it is desirable to develop methods for guiding and controlling arbitrarily-configured spacecraft with any combination of thrusters of various types, i.e. either static reaction control system thrusters and gimbaling thrusters. Scenarios in which autonomous selection of thrusters may be needed include the case of a stuck or inhibited thruster that restricts the motion of the vehicle, vehicles with changing mass properties such as logistics modules or tugs, or vehicles that have imposed constraints on thrusters during docking in order to avoid plume impingement on a space station or adjacent spacecraft. To that end, a spacecraft must be able to rapidly and autonomously reconfigure thruster firing histories and update guidance protocols in accordance with newly imposed constraints. In this paper, a methodology is presented that enables a spacecraft to autonomously select thrusters of any configuration and type in order to optimally match a desired 6-degree-of-freedom navigation and control within the special Euclidean SE(3) framework. The residual motion imposed by off-nominal thruster configurations or thrusters that are not fully controllable is identified by the spacecraft and solved for over time, both for static reaction control systems and for the case of gimbaling thrusters.

GN&C↗

IONAC-Lite

The Interplanetary Overlay Net - working Protocol Accelerator (IONAC) described previously in The Inter - planetary Overlay Networking Protocol Accelerator (NPO-45584), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 10, (October 2008) p. 106 (http://www.techbriefs.com/component/ content/article/3317) provides functions that implement the Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) bundle protocol. New missions that require high-speed downlink-only use of DTN can now be accommodated by the unidirectional IONAC-Lite to support high data rate downlink mission applications. Due to constrained energy resources, a conventional software implementation of the DTN protocol can provide only limited throughput for any given reasonable energy consumption rate. The IONAC-Lite DTN Protocol Accelerator is able to reduce this energy consumption by an order of magnitude and increase the throughput capability by two orders of magnitude. In addition, a conventional DTN implementation requires a bundle database with a considerable storage requirement. In very high downlink datarate missions such as near-Earth radar science missions, the storage space utilization needs to be maximized for science data and minimized for communications protocol-related storage needs. The IONAC-Lite DTN Protocol Accelerator is implemented in a reconfigurable hardware device to accomplish exactly what s needed for high-throughput DTN downlink-only scenarios. The following are salient features of the IONAC-Lite implementation: An implementation of the Bundle Protocol for an environment that requires a very high rate bundle egress data rate. The C&DH (command and data handling) subsystem is also expected to be very constrained so the interaction with the C&DH processor and the temporary storage are minimized. Fully pipelined design so that bundle processing database is not required. Implements a lookup table-based approach to eliminate multi-pass processing requirement imposed by the Bundle Protocol header s length field structure and the SDNV (self-delimiting numeric value) data field formatting. 8-bit parallel datapath to support high data-rate missions. Reduced resource utilization implementation for missions that do not require custody transfer features. There was no known implementation of the DTN protocol in a field programmable gate array (FPGA) device prior to the current implementation. The combination of energy and performance optimization that embodies this design makes the work novel.

Torgerson, Jordan L.↗

Closed Loop Control Compact Exercise Device for Use on MPCV

Long duration space travel to Mars or to an asteroid will expose astronauts to extended periods of reduced gravity. To combat spaceflight physiological deconditioning, astronauts will use resistive and aerobic exercise regimens for the duration of the space flight to minimize the loss of bone density, muscle mass and aerobic capacity that occurs during exposure to a reduced gravity environment. Unlike the International Space Station (ISS), the mass and volume available for an exercise device in the next generation of spacecraft is limited. Therefore, compact exercise device prototypes are being developed for human in the loop evaluations. The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is managing Advanced Exercise Concepts (AEC) requirements development and candidate technology maturation for all exploration mission profiles from Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) exploration missions (e.g., EM-2, up to 21 day) to Mars Transit (up to 1000 day) missions. Numerous technologies have been considered and evaluated against HRP-approved functional requirements and include flywheel, pneumatic and closed-loop microprocessor-controlled motor driven power plants. Motor driven technologies offer excellent torque density and load accuracy characteristics as well as the ability to create custom mechanical impedance (the dynamic relationship between force and velocity) and custom load versus position exercise algorithms. Further, closed-loop motor-driven technologies offer the ability to monitor exercise dose parameters and adapt to the needs of the crewmember for real time optimization of exercise prescriptions. A simple proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is demonstrated in a prototype motor driven exercise device with comparison to resistive static and dynamic load set points and aerobic work rate targets. The resistive load term in the algorithm includes a constant force component (Fcmg) as well as inertial component (Fima) and a discussion of system tuning is presented in terms of addressing key functional requirements and human interfaces. The device aerobic modality is modelled as a rowing exercise using ground data sets obtained from Concept 2 rowers as well as competitive rowing1. A discussion of software and electronic implementations are presented which demonstrate unique approaches to meeting the constrained mass, volume and power requirements of the MPCV. . In addition to utilizing traditional PID control, controllers utilizing state feedback with gains solved using a Linear Quadratic Regulator will be developed. Controllability and observability will be utilized to investigate the need for state measurement in the design. As the control system directly interacts with human test subjects, robust methods such as H-infinity are also being investigated.1. Kleshnev V. Biomechanics. In: Rowing, Handbook of Sports Medicine and Science. ed. by Secher N., Voliantis S. IOC Medical Commission, Blackwell Pub. pp. 22-34, 2007

microgravity↗

Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals

The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗