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At least 721 records · Page 40

Experiment in Onboard Synthetic Aperture Radar Data Processing

Single event upsets (SEUs) are a threat to any computing system running on hardware that has not been physically radiation hardened. In addition to mandating the use of performance-limited, hardened heritage equipment, prior techniques for dealing with the SEU problem often involved hardware-based error detection and correction (EDAC). With limited computing resources, software- based EDAC, or any more elaborate recovery methods, were often not feasible. Synthetic aperture radars (SARs), when operated in the space environment, are interesting due to their relevance to NASAs objectives, but problematic in the sense of producing prodigious amounts of raw data. Prior implementations of the SAR data processing algorithm have been too slow, too computationally intensive, and require too much application memory for onboard execution to be a realistic option when using the type of heritage processing technology described above. This standard C-language implementation of SAR data processing is distributed over many cores of a Tilera Multicore Processor, and employs novel Radiation Hardening by Software (RHBS) techniques designed to protect the component processes (one per core) and their shared application memory from the sort of SEUs expected in the space environment. The source code includes calls to Tilera APIs, and a specialized Tilera compiler is required to produce a Tilera executable. The compiled application reads input data describing the position and orientation of a radar platform, as well as its radar-burst data, over time and writes out processed data in a form that is useful for analysis of the radar observations.

Holland, Matthew↗

Getting around Antarctica: New High-Resolution Mappings of the Grounded and Freely-Floating Boundaries of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Created for the International Polar Year

Two ice-dynamic transitions of the Antarctic ice sheet - the boundary of grounded ice features and the freely-floating boundary - are mapped at 15-m resolution by participants of the International Polar Year project ASAID using customized software combining Landsat-7 imagery and ICESat/GLAS laser altimetry. The grounded ice boundary is 53 610 km long; 74% abuts to floating ice shelves or outlet glaciers, 19% is adjacent to open or sea-ice covered ocean, and 7% of the boundary ice terminates on land. The freely-floating boundary, called here the hydrostatic line, is the most landward position on ice shelves that expresses the full amplitude of oscillating ocean tides. It extends 27 521 km and is discontinuous. Positional (one-sigma) accuracies of the grounded ice boundary vary an order of magnitude ranging from +/- 52m for the land and open-ocean terminating segments to +/- 502m for the outlet glaciers. The hydrostatic line is less well positioned with errors over 2 km. Elevations along each line are selected from 6 candidate digital elevation models based on their agreement with ICESat elevation values and surface shape inferred from the Landsat imagery. Elevations along the hydrostatic line are converted to ice thicknesses by applying a firn-correction factor and a flotation criterion. BEDMAP-compiled data and other airborne data are compared to the ASAID elevations and ice thicknesses to arrive at quantitative (one-sigma) uncertainties of surface elevations of +/-3.6, +/-9.6, +/-11.4, +/-30 and +/-100m for five ASAID-assigned confidence levels. Over one-half of the surface elevations along the grounded ice boundary and over one-third of the hydrostatic line elevations are ranked in the highest two confidence categories. A comparison between ASAID-calculated ice shelf thicknesses and BEDMAP-compiled data indicate a thin-ice bias of 41.2+/-71.3m for the ASAID ice thicknesses. The relationship between the seaward offset of the hydrostatic line from the grounded ice boundary only weakly matches a prediction based on beam theory. The mapped products along with the customized software to generate them and a variety of intermediate products are available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Bindschadler, R.↗

Simulated Wake Characteristics Data for Closely Spaced Parallel Runway Operations Analysis

A simulation experiment was performed to generate and compile wake characteristics data relevant to the evaluation and feasibility analysis of closely spaced parallel runway (CSPR) operational concepts. While the experiment in this work is not tailored to any particular operational concept, the generated data applies to the broader class of CSPR concepts, where a trailing aircraft on a CSPR approach is required to stay ahead of the wake vortices generated by a lead aircraft on an adjacent CSPR. Data for wake age, circulation strength, and wake altitude change, at various lateral offset distances from the wake-generating lead aircraft approach path were compiled for a set of nine aircraft spanning the full range of FAA and ICAO wake classifications. A total of 54 scenarios were simulated to generate data related to key parameters that determine wake behavior. Of particular interest are wake age characteristics that can be used to evaluate both time- and distance- based in-trail separation concepts for all aircraft wake-class combinations. A simple first-order difference model was developed to enable the computation of wake parameter estimates for aircraft models having weight, wingspan and speed characteristics similar to those of the nine aircraft modeled in this work.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Energy and Water Management

Energy efficiency isn't just a good idea; it's a necessity, both for cost reasons and to meet federal regulatory requirements. First, rising energy unit costs continue to erode NASA's mission budget. NASA spent roughly $156M on facility energy in FY 2007. Although that represents less than one per cent of NASA's overall annual budget, the upward trend in energy costs concerns the agency. While NASA reduced consumption 13%, energy unit costs have risen 63%. Energy cost increases counteract the effects of energy conservation, which results in NASA buying less yet spending more. The second factor is federal energy legislation. The National Energy Conservation Policy Act, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Executive Order (EO) 13423 (January, 2007), and the Energy Independence and Security Act (December, 2007), mandates energy/water conservation goals for all federal agencies, including NASA. There are also reporting requirements associated with this legislation. The Energy/Water Management Task was created to support NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division (HO EMD) in meeting these requirements. With assistance from TEERM, HQ EMD compiled and submitted the NASA Annual Report to the Department of Energy FY 2007. The report contains information on how NASA is meeting federally mandated energy and water management goals. TEERM monitored input for timeliness, errors, and conformity to the new energy/water reporting guidelines and helped compile the information into the final report. TEERM also assists NASA Energy/Water Management with proposal and award calls, updates to the energy/water management database, and facilitating communication within the energy/water management community. TEERM is also supporting NASA and the Interagency Working Group (IWG) on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Established shortly after the President announced the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative in 2003, this IWG serves as the mechanism for collaboration among the Federal agencies involved in hydrogen-related research, development, and demonstration. TEERM developed a matrix showing all Hydrogen and Fuel Cell activities from the various NASA centers to be included in the Group's extensive hydrogen research taxonomy of past, present, and future hydrogen activities of the Federal government.

Valek, Susan E.↗

Outgassing Data for Selecting Spacecraft Materials

Outgassing data, derived from tests at 398 K (125 C) for 24 hours in vacuum as per ASTM E-595-90, have been compiled for numerous materials designed for spacecraft use. The data presented are the total mass loss (TML) and the collected volatile condensable materials (CVCM). The various materials are compiled by likely usage, and then in alphabetical order.

Campbell, William A.↗

Are Medications Involved in Vision and Intracrancial Pressure Changes Seen in Spaceflight?

The Food and Drug Association Adverse Event Reports (FDA AER) from 2009-2011 were used to create a database from millions of known and suspected medication-related adverse events among the general public. Vision changes, sometimes associated with intracranial pressure changes (VIIP), have been noted in some long duration crewmembers. Changes in vision and blood pressure (which can subsequently affect intracranial pressure) are fairly common side effects of medications. The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of medication involvement in crew VIIP symptoms. Reports of suspected medication-related adverse events may be filed with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by medical professionals or consumers. Quarterly compilations of these reports are available for public download. Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) reports from 1/1/2009- 6/30/2012 were downloaded and compiled into a searchable database for this study. Reports involving individuals under the age of 18 and older than 65 were excluded from this analysis. Case reports involving chronic diseases such as cancer, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and other serious conditions were also excluded. A scan of the medical literature for medication-related VIIP-like adverse events was used to create a list of suspect medications. These medications, as well as certain medications used frequently by ISS crew, were used to query the database. Queries for use of suspected medications were run, and the nature of the symptoms reported in those cases were tabulated. Symptoms searched in the FDA AERS were chosen to include the typical symptoms noted in crewmembers with VIIP. Vision symptoms searched were: visual acuity reduced, visual impairment, and vitreous floaters. Pressure changes included: abnormal sensation in eye, intracranial pressure increased, intraocular pressure increased, optic neuritis, optic neuropathy, and papilloedema. Limited demographic information is included with the FDA AERS; relevant data were also sorted by age and sex from each report. RESULTS Steroid-containing oral contraceptives had the highest number of reports associated with vision (n=166) and pressure symptoms (n=54). Corticosteroid-containing medications were also high; prednisone, for example, had 137 reports of vision issues and 79 of pressure issues. Pain relievers were also a medication class with vision and pressure-related adverse events reported. Common over-the-counter medications such as acetaminophen, aspirin and ibuprofen each had multiple reports for both vision and pressure symptoms. Antimicrobial medications ciprofloxacin and diflucan were also associated with a number of vision and pressure-related AERS. Unexpectedly, pseudoephedrine and promethazine were mentioned in fewer than 20 reports each over the 3.5 years of data examined. The FDA AERS represents a wealth of data, but there are several limitations to its use. The data are entered by the public or medical professionals, but are not checked for accuracy or completeness and may even be entered multiple times. The causal relationship between a particular adverse event and a particular medication is not tested. The cases represent a broad spectrum of demographics, occupations, and health histories, and thus do not model the astronaut population well. There is no information on the frequency of use of a medication for comparison purposes; it is not possible to assign a rate for any particular adverse event. Nonetheless, there are compelling trends. Use of corticosteroid-containing medications, pain relievers (even over-the-counter), and oral contraceptives were associated with higher numbers of vision- or intracranial pressure-related adverse events. In general, there were more vision problems than pressure problems reported. Certain medications that were once suspected of playing a role in the crew VIIP syndrome, namely pseudoephedrine and promethazine, were found to have extremely low numbers of VIIP-like AERS in the FDA data. However, crew use of corticosteroid-containing medications and pain relievers may warrant additional investigation

Faust, K. M.↗

A Guide to Axial-Flow Turbine Off-Design Computer Program AXOD2

A Users Guide for the axial flow turbine off-design computer program AXOD2 is composed in this paper. This Users Guide is supplementary to the original Users Manual of AXOD. Three notable contributions of AXOD2 to its predecessor AXOD, both in the context of the Guide or in the functionality of the code, are described and discussed in length. These are: 1) a rational representation of the mathematical principles applied, with concise descriptions of the formulas implemented in the actual coding. Their physical implications are addressed; 2) the creation and documentation of an Addendum Listing of input namelist-parameters unique to AXOD2, that differ from or are in addition to the original input-namelists given in the Manual of AXOD. Their usages are discussed; and 3) the institution of proper stoppages of the code execution, encoding termination messaging and error messages of the execution to AXOD2. These measures are to safe-guard the integrity of the code execution, such that a failure mode encountered during a case-study would not plunge the code execution into indefinite loop, or cause a blow-out of the program execution. Details on these are discussed and illustrated in this paper. Moreover, this computer program has since been reconstructed substantially. Standard FORTRAN Langue was instituted, and the code was formatted in Double Precision (REAL*8). As the result, the code is now suited for use in a local Desktop Computer Environment, is perfectly portable to any Operating System, and can be executed by any FORTRAN compiler equivalent to a FORTRAN 9095 compiler. AXOD2 will be available through NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Software Repository.

Gas Turbine Engines↗

The WIRED Survey. IV. New Dust Disks from the McCook & Sion White Dwarf Catalog

We have compiled photometric data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer All Sky Survey and other archival sources for the more than 2200 objects in the original McCook & Sion Catalog of Spectroscopically Identified White Dwarfs. We applied color-selection criteria to identify 28 targets whose infrared spectral energy distributions depart from the expectation for the white dwarf photosphere alone. Seven of these are previously known white dwarfs with circumstellar dust disks, five are known central stars of planetary nebulae, and six were excluded for being known binaries or having possible contamination of their infrared photometry. We fit white dwarf models to the spectral energy distributions of the remaining ten targets, and find seven new candidates with infrared excess suggesting the presence of a circumstellar dust disk. We compare the model dust disk properties for these new candidates with a comprehensive compilation of previously published parameters for known white dwarfs with dust disks. It is possible that the current census of white dwarfs with dust disks that produce an excess detectable at K-band and shorter wavelengths is close to complete for the entire sample of known WDs to the detection limits of existing near-IR all-sky surveys. The white dwarf dust disk candidates now being found using longer wavelength infrared data are drawn from a previously underrepresented region of parameter space, in which the dust disks are overall cooler, narrower in radial extent, and/or contain fewer emitting grains.

Dwarf↗

Global Characterization and Monitoring of Forest Cover Using Landsat Data: Opportunities and Challenges

The compilation of global Landsat data-sets and the ever-lowering costs of computing now make it feasible to monitor the Earth's land cover at Landsat resolutions of 30 m. In this article, we describe the methods to create global products of forest cover and cover change at Landsat resolutions. Nevertheless, there are many challenges in ensuring the creation of high-quality products. And we propose various ways in which the challenges can be overcome. Among the challenges are the need for atmospheric correction, incorrect calibration coefficients in some of the data-sets, the different phenologies between compilations, the need for terrain correction, the lack of consistent reference data for training and accuracy assessment, and the need for highly automated characterization and change detection. We propose and evaluate the creation and use of surface reflectance products, improved selection of scenes to reduce phenological differences, terrain illumination correction, automated training selection, and the use of information extraction procedures robust to errors in training data along with several other issues. At several stages we use Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer data and products to assist our analysis. A global working prototype product of forest cover and forest cover change is included.

Global↗

NASA One-Dimensional Combustor Simulation--User Manual for S1D_ML

The work presented in this paper is to promote research leading to a closed-loop control system to actively suppress thermo-acoustic instabilities. To serve as a model for such a closed-loop control system, a one-dimensional combustor simulation composed using MATLAB software tools has been written. This MATLAB based process is similar to a precursor one-dimensional combustor simulation that was formatted as FORTRAN 77 source code. The previous simulation process requires modification to the FORTRAN 77 source code, compiling, and linking when creating a new combustor simulation executable file. The MATLAB based simulation does not require making changes to the source code, recompiling, or linking. Furthermore, the MATLAB based simulation can be run from script files within the MATLAB environment or with a compiled copy of the executable file running in the Command Prompt window without requiring a licensed copy of MATLAB. This report presents a general simulation overview. Details regarding how to setup and initiate a simulation are also presented. Finally, the post-processing section describes the two types of files created while running the simulation and it also includes simulation results for a default simulation included with the source code.

combustion↗

NASA GRC UAS Project - Communications Modeling and Simulation Development Status

The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace represents new operational concepts required in civil aviation. These new concepts are evolving as the nation moves toward the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under the leadership of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), and through ongoing work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The desire and ability to fly UAS in the National Air Space (NAS) in the near term has increased dramatically, and this multi-agency effort to develop and implement a national plan to successfully address the challenges of UAS access to the NAS in a safe and timely manner is well underway. As part of the effort to integrate UAS in the National Airspace, NASA Glenn Research Center is currently involved with providing research into Communications systems and Communication system operations in order to assist with developing requirements for this implementation. In order to provide data and information regarding communication systems performance that will be necessary, NASA GRC is tasked with developing and executing plans for simulations of candidate future UAS command and control communications, in line with architectures and communications technologies being developed and or proposed by NASA and relevant aviation organizations (in particular, RTCA SC-203). The simulations and related analyses will provide insight into the ability of proposed communications technologies and system architectures to enable safe operation of UAS, meeting UAS in the NAS project goals (including performance requirements, scalability, and interoperability), and ultimately leading to a determination of the ability of NextGen communication systems to accommodate UAS. This presentation, compiled by the NASA GRC Modeling and Simulation team, will provide an update to this ongoing effort at NASA GRC as follow-up to the overview of the planned simulation effort presented at ICNS in 2013. The objective of presentation will be to describe the progress made in developing both a NAS-Wide simulation architecture application and the detailed radiocomm system models for this research, and will present interim data and information compiled in the process of developing these simulation capabilities to date.

Modeling and Simulation↗

JPL Mission Bibliometrics

For a number of years ongoing bibliographies of various JPL missions (AIRS, ASTER, Cassini, GRACE, Earth Science, Mars Exploration Rovers (Spirit & Opportunity)) have been compiled by the JPL Library. Mission specific bibliographies are compiled by the Library and sent to mission scientists and managers in the form of regular (usually quarterly) updates. Charts showing publications by years are periodically provided to the ASTER, Cassini, and GRACE missions for supporting Senior Review/ongoing funding requests, and upon other occasions as a measure of the impact of the missions. Basically the Web of Science, Compendex, sometimes Inspec, GeoRef and Aerospace databases are searched for the mission name in the title, abstract, and assigned keywords. All get coded for journal publications that are refereed publications.

Bibliographies↗

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

Bolshinskiy, L. G.↗

ESIP Earth Sciences Data Analytics (ESDA) Cluster - Work in Progress

The purpose of this poster is to promote a common understanding of the usefulness of, and activities that pertain to, Data Analytics and more broadly, the Data Scientist; Facilitate collaborations to better understand the cross usage of heterogeneous datasets and to provide accommodating data analytics expertise, now and as the needs evolve into the future; Identify gaps that, once filled, will further collaborative activities. Objectives Provide a forum for Academic discussions that provides ESIP members a better understanding of the various aspects of Earth Science Data Analytics Bring in guest speakers to describe external efforts, and further teach us about the broader use of Data Analytics. Perform activities that:- Compile use cases generated from specific community needs to cross analyze heterogeneous data- Compile sources of analytics tools, in particular, to satisfy the needs of the above data users- Examine gaps between needs and sources- Examine gaps between needs and community expertise- Document specific data analytics expertise needed to perform Earth science data analytics Seek graduate data analytics Data Science student internship opportunities.

science data analysis↗

Lessons Learned and Future Goals of the High Lift Prediction Workshops

The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) High Lift Prediction Workshop series is described. Two workshops have been held to date. Major conclusions are summarized, and plans for future workshops are outlined. A compilation of lessons learned from the first two workshops is provided. This compilation includes a summary of needs for future high-lift experiments that are intended for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

Tracking Historical NASA EVA Training: Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) Development of the EVA Suit Exposure Tracker (EVA SET)

During a spacewalk, designated as extravehicular activity (EVA), an astronaut ventures from the protective environment of the spacecraft into the vacuum of space. EVAs are among the most challenging tasks during a mission, as they are complex and place the astronaut in a highly stressful environment dependent on the spacesuit for survival. Due to the complexity of EVA, NASA has conducted various training programs on Earth to mimic the environment of space and to practice maneuvers in a more controlled and forgiving environment. However, rewards offset the risks of EVA, as some of the greatest accomplishments in the space program were accomplished during EVA, such as the Apollo moonwalks and the Hubble Space Telescope repair missions. Water has become the environment of choice for EVA training on Earth, using neutral buoyancy as a substitute for microgravity. During EVA training, an astronaut wears a modified version of the spacesuit adapted for working in water. This high fidelity suit allows the astronaut to move in the water while performing tasks on full-sized mockups of space vehicles, telescopes, and satellites. During the early Gemini missions, several EVA objectives were much more difficult than planned and required additional time. Later missions demonstrated that "complex (EVA) tasks were feasible when restraints maintained body position and underwater simulation training ensured a high success probability".1,2 EVA training has evolved from controlling body positioning to perform basic tasks to complex maintenance of the Hubble Space Telescope and construction of the International Space Station (ISS). Today, preparation is centered at special facilities built specifically for EVA training, such as the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) at NASA's Johnson Space Center ([JSC], Houston) and the Hydrolab at the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Centre ([GCTC], Star City, outside Moscow). Underwater training for an EVA is also considered hazardous duty for NASA astronauts. This activity places astronauts at risk for decompression sickness and barotrauma as well as various musculoskeletal disorders from working in the spacesuit. The medical, operational and research communities over the years have requested access to EVA training data to better understand the risks. As a result of these requests, epidemiologists within the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) team have compiled records from numerous EVA training venues to quantify the exposure to EVA training. The EVA Suit Exposure Tracker (EVA SET) dataset is a compilation of ground-based training activities using the extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) in neutrally buoyant pools to enhance EVA performance on orbit. These data can be used by the current ISS program and future exploration missions by informing physicians, researchers, and operational personnel on the risks of EVA training in order that future suit and mission designs incorporate greater safety. The purpose of this technical report is to document briefly the various facilities where NASA astronauts have performed EVA training while describing in detail the EVA training records used to generate the EVA SET dataset.

Laughlin, Mitzi S.↗

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

landslides↗

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗