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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

CHARGE-MAP: An integrated framework to study the multicriteria EV charging infrastructure expansion problem

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years has necessitated the development of effective charging infrastructures. However, charging infrastructure expansion is a multifaceted problem that requires careful consideration of the existing infrastructure, spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands, power-grid capacity, and budget constraints. Here, to approach this complex problem, we present CHARGE-MAP, a data-driven simulation-optimization framework, focused on ensuring meaningful charging experience for individual EV owners. CHARGE-MAP integrates three modules: an agent-based simulation module that estimates spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands by modeling EV adopter mobility and charging behavior; an optimization module that determines optimal new charging station/charger locations and capacities, while minimizing expected detour distances and wait-times with a limited number of new stations; and a power module that determines how to connect the stations to the power grid while maintaining its stability. Using the state of Virginia (consisting of 95 counties and 38 independent cities) as a case study, our results show that CHARGE-MAP can meet the demand of ~198,600 predicted EVs with 1,305 new public charging stations and 2,164 new chargers. It reduces average detour distances for charging by 66% and wait-times at stations by 72% compared to the existing infrastructure. Furthermore, transformer capacity requirement analysis reveals that only 1.8% of residential transformers require upgrades, while over 80% of commercial charging locations can be supported with modest transformer infrastructure (25 to 50 kVA). This indicates that targeted investments can facilitate cost-effective EV integration. Consequently, CHARGE-MAP provides policymakers and urban planners with crucial data-driven insights for effective EV charging infrastructure expansion. Sign up for PNAS alerts.

charging infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2026

Planning for cooler communities: Vacant lots as components of heat resilience in Mesa, Arizona

Vacant lots are often perceived as contributing to negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts on surrounding communities. However, they also offer opportunities for strategic interventions that promote heat resilience. This study uses a decision-scale congruence analytic approach to examine the correlation between extreme heat and community resilience in the context of vacant lots in the city of Mesa, Arizona. By identifying and analyzing over 1,200 vacant lots, we assessed spatial patterns of Community Resilience Estimates (CRE) for Heat and Body Heat Storage (BHS) to understand their correlation at the unit of analysis of vacant lots, where key decisions are made concerning land use. The results reveal a nonrandom spatial distribution of CRE for Heat and BHS across Mesa’s vacant lots. Vacant lots are disproportionately concentrated in neighborhoods with lower resilience, exacerbating heat exposure. Communities with limited access to cooling infrastructure, tree canopy, and other resources experience lowered heat resilience. A positive correlation between CRE for Heat and BHS shows that areas with higher heat exposure tend to have lower community resilience, reinforcing the need for cooling interventions. This study highlights the potential for converting vacant lots into heat-resilient, community-serving spaces. Using our findings, decision makers can identify priority areas and leverage vacant lots to mitigate heat impacts and foster community resilience.

community resilience↗
DOE OSTI2026

Commentary: Our “heatshed” moment is now

We are living through a “heatshed” moment, a critical turning point in which heat must be rapidly addressed to protect health and livelihoods worldwide. The year 2024 was the hottest on record since global records began in 1850, and the past 10 years were the hottest decade in recorded history. Although extreme heat is the top weather-related killer in the United States, affecting livelihoods and economies, cities and nations dedicate more attention and resources to other climate hazards, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and wildfires. In this commentary, we argue that heat resilience must be rapidly advanced through heat mitigation, heat management, and heat governance efforts to ensure thriving communities in the face of an overheating world.

Extreme heat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing heat resilience coordination in networks of plans

Networks of plans coordinating on hazard mitigation can limit losses. We offer a novel network analysis methodology to investigate how networks of plans explicitly coordinate, and the purpose and nature of coordination. We illustrate the method using networks of plans shaping heat resilience in seven Arizona cities. The network analysis can help planners to identify influential plans that need to be high quality, peripheral plans, and potential governance silos. Furthermore, investigation into plan roles offers an ontological lens into how plans network, consult, and share information. The nature of coordination varies by purpose. General plans are cited for goals, while hazard mitigation plans are referenced for heat fact base. Transportation plans cite goals and fact base in other transportation plans, but rarely cite other plan types. Furthermore, these findings will help planners to consider the roles and merits of different plans while integrating hazards across the next generation of networks of plans.

coordination↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning electric vehicle driver range anxiety with an initial state of charge-oriented gradient boosting approach

This manuscript focuses on the modeling of electric vehicle (EV) driver’s range anxiety, a fear that a vehicle does not have sufficient range, or state of charge (SOC) of the battery pack, to reach its destination and would strand its occupants. Despite numerous research studies on the modeling of charging behaviors, modeling efforts to understand at what battery percentages do EV drivers charge their vehicles, and what are the associated contributing factors, are rather limited. To this end, an ensemble learning model based on gradient boosting is developed. The model sequentially fits new predictors to new residuals of the previous prediction and, then, minimizes the loss when adding the latest prediction. A total of 18 features are defined and extracted from the multisource data, which cover information on driver, vehicles, stations, traffic conditions, as well as spatial-temporal context information of the charging events. The analyzed dataset includes 4.5-year’s charging event log data from 3,096 users and 468 public charging stations in Kansas City Missouri, and the macroscopic travel demand model maintained by the metropolitan planning organization. Here, the result shows the proposed model achieved a satisfactory result with a R square value of 0.54 and root mean square error of 0.14, both better than multiple linear regression model and random forest model. To reduce range anxiety, it is suggested that the priorities of deploying new charging facilities should be given to the areas with higher daily traffic prediction, with more conservative EV users or that are further from residential areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization-based trip chain emulation for electrified ride-sourcing charging demand analyses

Range anxiety remains one of the key concerns for ride-sourcing drivers to adopt battery electric vehicles (BEVs). To investigate the feasibility of using BEVs for ride-sourcing services, we propose an optimization-based methodology to estimate the daily driving trip patterns of ride-sourcing vehicles based on widely available non-identifiable trip data. Furthermore, we investigate the charging needs of electrified ride-sourcing vehicles using agent-based simulation. The methodologies are illustrated through a case study in the city of Chicago. Through sensitivity analysis on driver working hours and initial charging status, we quantify the range of daily average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per car and identify the hot spots of current public charging demand and potential unsatisfied charging demand. This study can be used to determine the priorities of future charging infrastructure investment to further mitigate range anxiety and promote the adoption of electrified ride-sourcing services

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based analysis of different curb space type allocations on curb performance

Curbspace is a limited resource in urban areas. Delivery, ridehailing and passenger vehicles must compete for spaces at the curb. Cities are increasingly adjusting curb rules and allocating curb spaces for uses other than short-term paid parking, yet they lack the tools or data needed to make informed decisions. In this research, we analyze and quantify the impacts of different curb use allocations on curb performance through simulation, covering various mixes of curbspace uses (bus stops, paid parking, passenger pick-up/drop-off zones, and commercial vehicle loading zones), parking rules, and driver rule compliance. Three metrics (including two new ones) are developed to evaluate the performance of the curb, covering productivity and accessibility of passengers and goods, and CO 2 emissions. The metrics are calculated for each scenario across a wide range of input parameters (traffic volume, parking demand rate, vehicle dwell time, and street design speed) and compared to each other and to a baseline scenario. This work can inform policy decisions by providing municipalities a tool to analyze various curb management strategies and choose the ones that produce results more in line with their policy goals.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Method for Measuring Coupled Individual and Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

Although models of social vulnerability to environmental hazards are commonly developed to support policy interventions in emergencies and disasters, their utility is hindered by a lack of contextual information on individuals exposed to and affected by hazards. We develop a novel approach to model social vulnerability that couples individuals and their varying forms of protective capacity with the social fabric of the communities in which they reside. The backbone of our model is the Public-Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), a product of the U.S. Census Bureau that preserves a representative sample of completed responses to the American Community Survey (ACS). The PUMS enables us to understand the full range of individual protective capacities against a hazard in an exposed area, which we term individual vulnerability profiles (IVPs). In this case, we examine IVPs in the Coney Island-Brighton Beach section of New York City, which suffered severe impacts during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. To manage the large number of unique IVPs in Coney Island-Brighton Beach, we perform a segmentation analysis to generalize them into thematic cohort vulnerability profiles (CVPs) representing a typology of vulnerable people in Coney Island-Brighton Beach during Sandy. From synthetic populations of CVPs, we then estimate how individuals in varying housing types were coexposed to Sandy at the census tract level by classifying these areas into community social vulnerability profiles (SVPs). Our results provide a topology of social vulnerability that simultaneously links individual, community, and population-wide concerns, enabling a more holistic understanding of resources and interventions beneficial to human security during events like Sandy than is attainable with area-level metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River

The continued growth of Southwestern cities depends on reliable water export from Rocky Mountain headwaters, which provide ~85% of Colorado River Basin (CRB) streamflow. Despite being more sensitive to warming temperatures, alpine systems are simplified in the regional-scale models currently in use to plan for future water supply. We used an integrated hydrologic model that couples groundwater and surface water with snow and vegetation processes to examine the effect of topographic simplifications as a result of grid coarsening in a representative CRB headwater basin. High-resolution (100 m) simulations predicted headwater streamflow losses of 16% by 2050 while coarse-resolution (1 km) simulations predict only 12%, suggesting that regional-scale models (coarser than 1 km) likely overestimate future Colorado River Basin water supplies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urbanization drives convergence in soil profile texture and carbon content

Urban development has driven extensive modification of the global landscape. This shift in land use and land cover alters ecological functioning, and thereby affects sustainable management agendas. Urbanization fundamentally reshapes the soils that underlay landscapes, and throughout the soil profile, extends impacts of urbanization far below the landscape surface. The impacts of urbanization on deeper soils that are beyond the reach of regular land management are largely unknown, and validation of general theories of convergent ecosystem properties are thwarted by a dearth of both level of measurement effort and the substantial heterogeneity in soils and urban landscapes. Here, we examined two soil properties with strong links to ecological functioning—carbon and mineral-fraction particle size—measured in urban soils, and compared them to their pre-urbanization conditions across a continental gradient encompassing global soil diversity. We hypothesized that urbanization drove convergence of soils properties from heterogeneous pre-urban conditions towards homogeneous urban conditions. Based on our observations, we confirm the hypothesis. Both soil carbon and particle size converged toward an intermediate value in the full data distribution, from pre-urban to urban conditions. These outcomes in urban soils were observed to uniformly be fine textured soils with overall lower carbon content. Although these properties are desirable for supporting urban infrastructure (e.g. buildings, pipes), they constrain the potential to render ecosystem services. Since soil profile texture and carbon content were convergent and observed across 11 cities, we suggest that these property profiles can be used as a universal urban soil profile to: 1) provide a clear prediction for how urbanization will shift soil properties from pre-urban conditions, 2) facilitate the adoption of commonly-accepted soil profiles for process models, and 3) offer a reference point to test against urban management strategies and how they impact soil resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The shape of electrified transportation

Transportation is currently the least-diversified energy demand sector, with over 90% of global transportation energy use coming from petroleum products [1]. For more than a century, petroleum fuels have been relied upon to move people and goods within and between towns and cities, and on roads, railways, farms, waterways, and in the air. These energy-dense fuels have unquestionably provided reliable and convenient mobility options to power the modern global economy. However, these benefits have also created challenges associated with geopolitics, energy security, price volatility, and environmental impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pollution inequality 50 years after the Clean Air Act: the need for hyperlocal data and action

Fifty years ago the Clean Air Act amendments of 1970 were the first major US legislation that authorized regulation of air pollutants, creating National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQSs) to protect public health and the environment. While US air quality has improved, with average PM 2.5 concentrations in 2016 a third of 1981 levels, air pollution remains a major health risk in the US and globally. Moreover, air pollution impacts are still uneven, with the most polluted US communities of 50 years ago still so today. Air pollution “hot spots” result in disproportionate exposure at neighborhood scales within cities, particularly in disadvantaged communities, but an in-depth understanding at these scales is lacking. This policy perspective discusses how trends in sensor technology, spatial data collection, analytics and retrieval are converging to enable the production of hyperlocal air pollution data, and that this needs to be done in a manner that enables marginalized communities to shape decision making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Re-examining urban rainfall enhancement over North America

Abstract Quantifying intensification/suppression of precipitation over urban areas relative to their rural surroundings can inform efforts to reduce urban flooding. Few studies have systematically addressed whether urban areas exhibit a higher/lower probability of precipitation and/or higher/lower annual total precipitation and/or intensification/weakening of intense precipitation events relative to nearby rural areas across a range of hydroclimatic conditions and urban contexts. Here we address this literature gap using the IMERG V07 data set and analyses of rural and urban samples drawn from 47 conurbations across North America. Specifically, we quantify whether/how precipitation regimes over the urban grid cells differ from those in rural grid cells located 100–250 km from the city center and at a similar elevation. As in previous research, there is evidence that both the probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are typically higher in the urban grid cells. However, most conurbations have lower upper percentile precipitation rates in the urban sample and lower median precipitation rates above the 95th percentile than are present in samples drawn from rural grid cells. Thus, these conurbations are not, on average, intensifying high-magnitude precipitation events over urban grid cells. Further, the total volume of water accumulated at the surface during events of equivalent duration is not systematically higher over the urban areas, and 20 year return period values of 30 min and wettest pentad precipitation are also not systematically higher over the urban areas. The nature of urban modification of precipitation is a strong function of the prevailing hydroclimate. For example, the heaviest rainfall periods are enhanced over urban grid cells within regional hydroclimates where the overall probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are low. Conversely, there is evidence for urban suppression of the highest percentile precipitation rates in wetter hydroclimates.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate models show colorado drying sooner and with greater certainty east of the continental divide

Many studies have examined the aridity of the Colorado River Basin and the possible impacts of climate change which could further strain already over-allocated water resources in the region. Fewer studies have examined the multiple Colorado Rocky Mountain headwater regions specifically. This is especially true of areas East of the Continental Divide, despite water originating there being critical to cities and agriculture in Eastern Colorado and further downstream. This paper explores and compares drying trends in the Eastern and Western Colorado Rocky Mountains using single-model initial-condition large ensembles from ten global climate models. The use of multiple models allows us to identify signals that are consistent across different physics parameterizations, model grids, and other model intricacies. The large ensembles also allow us to quantify the time of emergence of these climate change signals--that is, when did (or when will) the long term change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses exceed the internal variability of the climate system. Consistent with previous studies, we find evidence of drying on both sides of the Continental Divide. That drying is more pronounced, occurs sooner, and is more consistent across global climate models in the East, however, highlighting the region’s importance despite generally receiving less attention than the West.

Rugg, Allyson↗
DOE OSTI2023

Roadmap on energy harvesting materials

Ambient energy harvesting has great potential to contribute to sustainable development and address growing environmental challenges. Converting waste energy from energy-intensive processes and systems (e.g. combustion engines and furnaces) is crucial to reducing their environmental impact and achieving net-zero emissions. Compact energy harvesters will also be key to powering the exponentially growing smart devices ecosystem that is part of the Internet of Things, thus enabling futuristic applications that can improve our quality of life (e.g. smart homes, smart cities, smart manufacturing, and smart healthcare). To achieve these goals, innovative materials are needed to efficiently convert ambient energy into electricity through various physical mechanisms, such as the photovoltaic effect, thermoelectricity, piezoelectricity, triboelectricity, and radiofrequency wireless power transfer. By bringing together the perspectives of experts in various types of energy harvesting materials, this Roadmap provides extensive insights into recent advances and present challenges in the field. Additionally, the Roadmap analyses the key performance metrics of these technologies in relation to their ultimate energy conversion limits. Building on these insights, the Roadmap outlines promising directions for future research to fully harness the potential of energy harvesting materials for green energy anytime, anywhere.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗