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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Commercial Building Planning and Retrofitting Strategy for Grid Services

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) plays an important role in improving energy consumption efficiency. In September 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved Order 2222 which opens wholesale electricity markets to small capacity DERs. The benefit of this new FERC Order 2222 is that DERs, such as rooftop solar panels and batteries, will be able to participate in regional electricity markets and provide grid services. Meanwhile, the planning and operation strategies of DERs are facing new challenges to account for the impact of the wholesale market with numerous uncertainty factors. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a new planning and retrofitting model for long-term commercial buildings that considers both DER investment and market participation. Specifically, we explore the capability of implementing DERs for grid services. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated using real-world data. Simulation results also validate that participating in grid services can significantly increase revenues through appropriate building energy management and shorten the payback period of DER investments.

building energy management↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Ergonomics of Human Space Flight: NASA Vehicles and Spacesuits

Space...the final frontier...these are the voyages of the starship...wait, wait, wait...that's not right...let's try that again. NASA is currently focusing on developing multiple strategies to prepare humans for a future trip to Mars. This includes (1) learning and characterizing the human system while in the weightlessness of low earth orbit on the International Space Station and (2) seeding the creation of commercial inspired vehicles by providing guidance and funding to US companies. At the same time, NASA is slowly leading the efforts of reestablishing human deep space travel through the development of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) known as Orion and the Space Launch System (SLS) with the interim aim of visiting and exploring an asteroid. Without Earth's gravity, current and future human space travel exposes humans to micro- and partial gravity conditions, which are known to force the body to adapt both physically and physiologically. Without the protection of Earth's atmosphere, space is hazardous to most living organisms. To protect themselves from these difficult conditions, Astronauts utilize pressurized spacesuits for both intravehicular travel and extravehicular activities (EVAs). Ensuring a safe living and working environment for space missions requires the creativity of scientists and engineers to assess and mitigate potential risks through engineering designs. The discipline of human factors and ergonomics at NASA is critical in making sure these designs are not just functionally designed for people to use, but are optimally designed to work within the capacities specific to the Astronaut Corps. This lecture will review both current and future NASA vehicles and spacesuits while providing an ergonomic perspective using case studies that were and are being carried out by the Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) at NASA's Johnson Space Center.

Reid, Christopher R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban stormwater drainage system in Tampa, Florida (USA)

Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections” Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from –40% to 160%, and –40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Stable-Isotope Probing (qSIP) with Metagenomics Links Microbial Physiology and Activity to Soil Moisture in Mediterranean-Climate Grassland Ecosystems

The growth and physiology of soil microorganisms, which play vital roles in biogeochemical cycling, are shaped by both current and historical soil environmental conditions. Here, we developed and applied a genome-resolved metagenomic implementation of quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP) with an H 2 18 O labeling experiment to identify actively growing soil microorganisms and their genomic capacities. qSIP enabled measurement of taxon-specific growth because isotopic incorporation into microbial DNA requires production of new genome copies. We studied three Mediterranean grassland soils across a rainfall gradient to evaluate the hypothesis that historic precipitation levels are an important factor controlling trait selection. We used qSIP-informed genome-resolved metagenomics to resolve the active subset of soil community members and identify their characteristic ecophysiological traits. Higher year-round precipitation levels correlated with higher activity and growth rates of flagellar motile microorganisms. In addition to heavily isotopically labeled bacteria, we identified abundant isotope-labeled phages, suggesting phage-induced cell lysis likely contributed to necromass production at all three sites. Further, there was a positive correlation between phage activity and the activity of putative phage hosts. Contrary to our expectations, the capacity to decompose the diverse complex carbohydrates common in soil organic matter or oxidize methanol and carbon monoxide were broadly distributed across active and inactive bacteria in all three soils, implying that these traits are not highly selected for by historical precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The direct and indirect drivers shaping RNA viral communities in grassland soil

Recent studies have revealed diverse RNA viral communities in soils. Yet, how environmental factors influence soil RNA viruses remains largely unknown. Here, we recovered RNA viral communities from 24 metatranscriptomes sequenced from grassland soils managed under a range of environmental conditions including 1) water content: 100% and 25% water holding capacity, 2) plant presence: planted with tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) and bare soil, 3) cultivar type: Alkar and Jose, and 4) soil depth: 0-5 cm and 15-25 cm. The recovered RNA viral communities were novel with nearly one-third of the RNA viral contigs uniquely detected in the studied grassland. The classified RNA viral contigs are mostly known as eukaryotic RNA viruses (74.7%) belonging to Phyla Duplornaviricota, Kitrinoviricota, Lenarviricota, and Pisuviricota. Eukaryotic RNA viruses of Family Mitoviridae as well as their natural hosts, Fungi, are one of the most dominant taxa. Consistent with the results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis, the four environmental conditions (water content, plant presence, cultivar, and soil depth) significantly influence the assemblages of soil RNA viral communities as suggested by the correlation analysis and the random forest algorithm. The modularity analysis of the factor network and the structural equation modeling further support the hierarchical associations among the four environmental factors and the community factors representing the co-existing eukaryotic, prokaryotic, and RNA viral communities. The soil water content, plant presence, and type of cultivar demonstrate a significant positive impact on eukaryotic RNA viral richness directly as well as indirectly on eukaryotic RNA viral abundance via influencing the co-existing eukaryotic members in this soil. Our data also provide statistical support for the negative influence of soil depth on soil eukaryotic richness and abundances resulting in its indirect impact on soil eukaryotic RNA viral communities. This study provides field-relevant information on how environmental and community factors collectively shape soil RNA communities and contribute to ecological understanding of RNA viral survival under various environmental conditions and virus-host interactions in soil.

Wu, Ruonan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water desalination through the dewpoint evaporative system

This paper presents the first numerical analysis of a novel Dew Point Desalination unit (DPD), which utilizes the phenomenon of the evaporative cooling process to minimize energy consumption. The proposed solution is based on a modular structure, which allows it to obtain any required water production capacity. The analyses for various operational parameters and various climatic conditions are based on the numerical simulations conducted using a validated mathematical model. The system performance was described with different factors, including specific energy consumption (SEC) and daily water production rate respected to 1 m^3*s^-1 of passing air stream (DWP). It is shown that the DPD system can operate in almost every climate zone, and the desalinated water production consumes less than 1.5 kWh*m^-3 of electric energy It is noted the best performance of the DPD system is achieved in the semi-arid, desert and subtropical climate zones. In these climate zones, the 2-stage DPD system allows the production of desalinated water with an electric energy consumption SEC lower than 0.5 kWh*m^-3. The additional benefit of the DPD system is its modularity. The presented DPD system stands as a module, that can be multiplied as needed to achieve the desired size of the desalination plant.

Desalination↗

NASA NTRS1976

Study of a very low cost air combat maneuvering trainer aircraft

A very low cost aircraft for performing Air Combat Maneuvering (ACM) training was studied using the BD-5J sport plane as a point of departure. The installation of a larger engine and increased fuel capacity were required to meet the performance and mission objectives. Reduced wing area increased the simulation of the ACM engagement, and a comparison with current tactical aircraft is presented. Other factors affecting the training transfer are considered analytically, but a flight evaluation is recommended to determine the concept utility.

Hill, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Heart Rate Responses to Unaided Orion Side Hatch Egress in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory

NASA is developing the Orion capsule as a vehicle for transporting crewmembers to and from the International Space Station (ISS) and for future human space exploration missions. Orion and other commercial vehicles are designed to splash down in the ocean where nominally support personnel will assist crewmembers in egressing the vehicle. However, off-nominal scenarios will require crewmembers to egress the vehicle unaided, deploy survival equipment, and ingress a life raft. PURPOSE: To determine the heart rate (HR) responses to unaided Orion side hatch egress and raft ingress as a part of the NASA Crew Survival Engineering Team's evaluation of the PORT Orion mockup in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL). METHODS: Nineteen test subjects, including four astronauts (N=19, 14 males/5 females, 38.6+/-8.4 y, 174.4+/-9.6 cm, 75.7+/-13.1 kg), completed a graded maximal test on a cycle ergometer to determine VO2peak and HRpeak and were divided into five crews of four members each; one subject served on two crews. Each crew was required to deploy a life raft, egress the Orion vehicle from the side hatch, and ingress the life raft with two 8 kg emergency packs per crew. Each crew performed this activity one to three times; a total of ten full egresses were completed. Subjects wore a suit that was similar in form, mass, and function to the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) including helmet, gloves, boots, supplemental O2 bottles, and a CO2-inflated life preserver (approx.18 kg); subjects began each trial seated supine in the PORT Orion mockup with seat belts and mockup O2 and communication connections and ended each trial with all four crewmembers inside the life raft. RESULTS: VO2peak was 40.8+/-6.8 mL/kg/min (3.1+/-0.7 L/min); HRpeak was 181+/-10 bpm. Total egress time across trials was 5.0+/-1.6 min (range: 2.8-8.0 min); all subjects were able to successfully complete all trials. Average maximum HR at activity start, at the hatch opening, in the water, and in the raft, was 108, 137, 147, and 153 bpm, respectively; these values corresponded to 59+/-10%, 73+/-8%, 82+/-3%, and 84+/-6% of HRpeak, respectively. The highest HRs were seen after raft ingress and ranged from 72-99% HRpeak. Across all trials, cumulative averages of 5.4, 3.0, 1.1, and 0.2 min were spent at HRs >60%, >70%, >80%, and >90% HRpeak, respectively. CONCLUSION: Unaided Orion side hatch egress in the NBL is a relatively short-duration activity that elicits a high HR response for several min. Although all crewmembers successfully completed this activity, additional factors such as high seas, poor visibility, an incapacitated crewmember, neurovestibular perturbation, and neuromuscular deconditioning characteristic of a true operational environment may increase the physiologic demand (or decrease crewmembers' physiologic capacity) of unaided Orion side hatch egress. Additionally, landing conditions may require the crewmembers to egress from the top hatch, which is expected to be even more physiologically demanding; this condition will be evaluated in subsequent collaborative testing with the NASA Crew Survival Engineering Team.

English, Kirk L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational Approaches for Clean Energy Materials

Currently, 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels and only 20% as electricity. On the other hand, renewable energy additions come almost exclusively in the form of electricity (dominantly photovoltaics and wind). Thus, a successful energy transition will require enormous growth in renewables, sufficient to convert excess electricity into fuels, as well as the development of non-electricity based solar fuel technologies. As much as photovoltaic capacities have grown over the past 20 years, it is far from clear that current technologies and materials are up to the task to grow from here by yet another factor 100 until 2050. Therefore, sustained research efforts on emerging inorganic semiconductors for solar electricity and fuels are essential for facing the double challenge of climate change and energy security. Computational materials science can make important contributions, guiding and supporting research activities through both materials search and discovery and through detailed studies that help to develop a mechanistic understanding of materials performance and bottlenecks. This presentation will highlight three recent computational projects with relevance for photovoltaics and solar fuels (1) Defect graph neural networks (dGNN) for materials discovery in solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) [1]. The dGNN approach facilitates broad and fast materials screening for defect properties. (2) Modeling highly off-stoichiometric systems by evaluating the free energy of defect interaction [2]. This approach allows quantitative prediction of H2 production in complex STCH oxides. (3) First-principles atomic structure prediction for interfaces [3]. This work showed how an atomically thin CdCl2 interlayer phase enables in principle ideal electron transport across the incommensurate SnO2/CdTe interface. [1] M.D. Witman, A. Goyal, T. Ogitsu, A.H. McDaniel, S. Lany, Nat. Comput. Sci. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-023-00495-2. [2] A. Goyal, M.D. Sanders, R.P. O'Hayre, S. Lany, PRX Energy 3, 013008 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1103/PRXEnergy.3.013008. [3] A. Sharan, M. Nardone, D. Krasikov, N. Singh, S. Lany, Appl. Phys. Rev. 9, 041411 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0104008.

density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supramolecular Motion Enables Chondrogenic Bioactivity of a Cyclic Peptide Mimetic of Transforming Growth Factor-β1

Transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 is a multifunctional protein that is essential in many cellular processes that include fibrosis, inflammation, chondrogenesis, and cartilage repair. In particular, cartilage repair is important to avoid physical disability since this tissue does not have the inherent capacity to regenerate beyond full development. We report here on supramolecular coassemblies of two peptide amphiphile molecules, one containing a TGF-β1 mimetic peptide, and another which is one of two constitutional isomers lacking bioactivity. Using human articular chondrocytes, we investigated the bioactivity of the supramolecular copolymers of each isomer displaying either the previously reported linear form of the mimetic peptide or a novel cyclic analogue. Based on fluorescence depolarization and 1 H NMR spin–lattice relaxation times, we found that coassemblies containing the cyclic compound and the most dynamic isomer exhibited the highest intracellular TGF-β1 signaling and gene expression of cartilage extracellular matrix components. Here, we conclude that control of supramolecular motion is emerging as an important factor in the binding of synthetic molecules to receptors that can be tuned through chemical structure.

Antigens↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insight into the deformation features and capacity loss mechanisms of lithium-ion pouch cells under spherical indentation conditions

Mechanical deformation under extreme conditions is one of the important reasons for the failure of lithium-ion batteries in automotive application. However, the deformation features and component failure of lithium-ion cells to external loading has never been a design consideration. Here, in this study, we conduct spherical indentation tests on a dozen of lithium-ion cells with different capacities under different control mode conditions to investigate their deformation features and capacity loss mechanisms. The experimental results show that, under mechanical deformation conditions, internal faults of cells occur in stages, and energy accumulation and sudden release are two key processes of cell's mechanical failure. The cells' state of charge is the main factor affecting their thermal runaway behaviors. In addition, a finite element model is developed to simulate the deformation features and the failure mechanism of key components of lithium-ion pouch cells; the 3D x-ray computed tomography is employed to demonstrate its internal configuration. With this model, the force-strain response, the deformation features as well as the size of the failure area of lithium-ion cells under spherical indentation conditions are accurately predicted. In 3D x-ray computed tomography images, unique mud cracks in cooper current collector are observed, and the influence mechanisms of the isolated fragments on the cell capacities are revealed. These results may provide useful information for the mechanical structure design of the components of lithium-ion pouch cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modeling Snow Ablation over the Western United States Mountains: Patterns and Controlling Factors

When compared with differences in snow accumulation predicted by widely used hydrological models, there is a much greater divergence among otherwise “good” models in their simulation of the snow ablation process. Here, we explore differences in the performance of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP), the Catchment model, and the third-generation Simplified Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) in their ability to reproduce observed snow water equivalent (SWE) during the ablation season at 10 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations over 1992–2012. During the ablation period, net radiation generally has stronger correlations with observed melt rates than does air temperature. Average ablation rates tend to be higher (in both model predictions and observations) at stations with a large accumulation of SWE. The differences in the dates of last snow between models and observations range from several days to approximately a month (on average 5.1 days earlier than in observations). If the surface cover in the models is changed from observed vegetation to bare soil in all of the models, only the melt rate of the VIC model increases. The differences in responses of models to canopy removal are directly related to snowpack energy inputs, which are further affected by different algorithms for surface albedo and energy allocation across the models. We also find that the melt rates become higher in VIC and lower in Noah-MP if the shrub/grass present at the observation sites is switched to trees.

Snow↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Capture, Transport, And Storage (CTS) Cost Modeling Of The Onshore Gulf Coast

The onshore Gulf of Mexico region presents significant opportunities for CO2 capture, transport, and storage due to its numerous CO2 sources, such as power plants, refineries, and its substantial CO2 storage potential. However, operators face critical decisions in designing an efficient and cost-effective CO2 pipeline network. This study examines the economic implications of two primary strategies: constructing a trunkline with excess initial capacity versus developing dedicated pipelines incrementally as new CO2 sources come online. Building a trunkline first offers the advantage of future-proofing the network, allowing for the accommodation of increased CO2 volumes from various sources over time. However, this approach incurs higher upfront costs and risks underutilizing the transport capacity in the initial stages, potentially resulting in economic inefficiencies. Conversely, constructing dedicated pipelines for each new CO2 source as it becomes operational may avoid the initial overcapacity issue but fails to capitalize on the economies of scale. This could lead to higher overall costs due to the duplication of infrastructure and increased complexity in network management. This research employs a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, integrating factors such as capital expenditure, operational costs, projected CO2 volumes, and potential economies of scale. Through this analysis, we aim to provide operators with insights into the most economically viable strategy for CO2 pipeline network design in the region. The findings underscore the importance of strategic planning and highlight the trade-offs between immediate capacity utilization and long-term cost savings, ultimately guiding stakeholders towards informed decision-making in the development of CO2 transport infrastructure. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Shih, Chung Yan↗