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At least 721 records · Page 40

Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strategic Siting of Direct Air Capture Facilities in the United States

Direct air capture (DAC) systems that capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) directly from the atmosphere are garnering considerable attention for their potential role as negative emission technologies in achieving net-zero CO 2 emission goals. Common DAC technologies are based either on liquid–solvent (L-DAC) or solid–sorbent (S-DAC) to capture CO 2 . A comprehensive multi-factor comparative economic analysis of the deployment of L-DAC and S-DAC facilities across various United States (U.S.) cities is presented in this paper. The analysis considers the influence of various factors on the favorability of DAC deployment, including local climatic conditions such as temperature, humidity, and CO 2 concentrations; the availability of energy sources to power the DAC system; and costs for the transport and storage of the captured CO 2 along with the consideration of the regional market and policy drivers. The deployment analysis in over 70 continental U.S. cities shows that L-DAC and S-DAC complement each other spatially, as their performance and operational costs vary in different climates. L-DAC is more suited to the hot, humid Southeast, while S-DAC is preferrable in the colder, drier Rocky Mountain region. Strategic deployment based on regional conditions and economics is essential for promoting the commercial adoptability of DAC, which is a critical technology to meet the CO 2 reduction targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Active Asteroids Citizen Science Program: Overview and First Results

Abstract We present the Citizen Science program Active Asteroids and describe discoveries stemming from our ongoing project. Our NASA Partner program is hosted on the Zooniverse online platform and launched on 2021 August 31, with the goal of engaging the community in the search for active asteroids—asteroids with comet-like tails or comae. We also set out to identify other unusual active solar system objects, such as active Centaurs, active quasi-Hilda asteroids (QHAs), and Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Active objects are rare in large part because they are difficult to identify, so we ask volunteers to assist us in searching for active bodies in our collection of millions of images of known minor planets. We produced these cutout images with our project pipeline that makes use of publicly available Dark Energy Camera data. Since the project launch, roughly 8300 volunteers have scrutinized some 430,000 images to great effect, which we describe in this work. In total, we have identified previously unknown activity on 15 asteroids, plus one Centaur, that were thought to be asteroidal (i.e., inactive). Of the asteroids, we classify four as active QHAs, seven as JFCs, and four as active asteroids, consisting of one main-belt comet (MBC) and three MBC candidates. We also include our findings concerning known active objects that our program facilitated, an unanticipated avenue of scientific discovery. These include discovering activity occurring during an orbital epoch for which objects were not known to be active, and the reclassification of objects based on our dynamical analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Limit on Supernova Emission in the Brightest Gamma-Ray Burst, GRB 221009A

We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of the extraordinary gamma-ray burst (GRB) 221009A in search of an associated supernova. Some past GRBs have shown bumps in the optical light curve that coincide with the emergence of supernova spectral features, but we do not detect any significant light-curve features in GRB 221009A, nor do we detect any clear sign of supernova spectral features. Using two well-studied GRB-associated supernovae (SN 2013dx, M r,max =-19.54;$ SN 2016jca, M r,max =-19.04$) at a similar redshift as GRB 221009A (z = 0.151), we modeled how the emergence of a supernova would affect the light curve. If we assume the GRB afterglow to decay at the same rate as the X-ray data, the combination of afterglow and a supernova component is fainter than the observed GRB brightness. For the case where we assume the best-fit power law to the optical data as the GRB afterglow component, a supernova contribution should have created a clear bump in the light curve, assuming only extinction from the Milky Way. If we assume a higher extinction of E(B - V) = 1.74 mag (as has been suggested elsewhere), the supernova contribution would have been hard to detect, with a limit on the associated supernova of M r,max ≈ -$19.54. We do not observe any clear supernova features in our spectra, which were taken around the time of expected maximum light. The lack of a bright supernova associated with GRB 221009A may indicate that the energy from the explosion is mostly concentrated in the jet, leaving a lower energy budget available for the supernova.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Supersaturation, buoyancy, and deep convection dynamics

Motivated by recent discussions concerning differences of convective dynamics in polluted and pristine environments, the so-called convective invigoration in particular, this paper provides an analysis of factors affecting convective updraft buoyancy, such as the in-cloud supersaturation, condensate and precipitation loading, and entrainment. We use the deep convective period from simulations of daytime convection development over land discussed in our previous publications. An entraining parcel framework is used in the theoretical analysis. We show that for the specific case considered here, finite (positive) supersaturation noticeably reduces pseudo-adiabatic parcel buoyancy and cumulative convective available potential energy (cCAPE) in the lower troposphere. This comes from keeping a small fraction of the water vapor in a supersaturated state and thus reducing the latent heating. Such a lower-tropospheric impact is comparable to the effects of condensate loading and entrainment in the idealized parcel framework. For the entire tropospheric depth, loading and entrainment have a much more significant impact on the total CAPE. For the cloud model results, we compare ensemble simulations applying either a bulk microphysics scheme with saturation adjustment or a more comprehensive double-moment scheme with supersaturation prediction. We compare deep convective updraft velocities, buoyancies, and supersaturations from all ensembles. In agreement with the parcel analysis, the saturation-adjustment scheme provides noticeably stronger updrafts in the lower troposphere. For the simulations predicting supersaturation, there are small differences between pristine and polluted conditions below the freezing level that are difficult to explain by standard analysis of the in-cloud buoyancy components. By applying the piggybacking technique, we show that the lower-tropospheric buoyancy differences between pristine and polluted simulations come from a combination of temperature (i.e., latent heating) and condensate loading differences that work together to make polluted buoyancies and updraft velocities slightly larger when compared to their pristine analogues. Overall, the effects are rather small and contradict previous claims of a significant invigoration of deep convection in polluted environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

sondeparam

The SondeParam VAP will calculate useful radiosonde convective cloud parameters including the convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), LCL, LFC, LNB, and other parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interhemispheric comparison of atmospheric circulation features as evaluated from Nimbus satellite data

General circulation parameters in the Northern Hemisphere are calculated using atmospheric thermal structure obtained from Nimbus 3 SIRS multi-channel radiance information. The thermal structure up to 10 mb is obtained by using a regression technique with thickness between pressure levels as the dependent variable. General circulation parameters calculated on a daily basis include zonal and eddy available potential energy, and zonal and eddy kinetic energy. A second set of calculations is performed using National Meteorological Center grid data. A comparison of the two sets of calculations indicates that, although the energies calculated from the SIRS-derived structure underestimate the actual energies, maxima, minima, and trends are well identified. An example of mid-stratospheric energy changes during a breakdown of the polar-night vortex is also given.

Reiter, E. R.↗

Alternate multiple-outer-planet missions using a Saturn-Jupiter flyby sequence

A study has been made of a method for providing more frequent launch opportunities for multiple-planet Grand Tour type missions to the outer solar system. A Saturn-Jupiter flyby sequence was used in the analysis to initiate the mission instead of the normal Jupiter-Saturn sequence. The Saturn-first approach is shown to yield several new launch opportunities following the 1980 cutoff date for Jupiter-first missions. Results are given for various two-planet, three-planet, and four-planet Jupiter-first and Saturn-first missions. A unique five-planet Saturn-first mission and a Saturn-Jupiter flyby which returns to earth are also discussed. Mission performance is evaluated for each flyby technique by comparing Saturn-first and Jupiter-first missions with respect to launch energy requirements, available launch windows, planetary encounter conditions, and total mission times.

Young, J. W.↗

Data monitoring and information availability - A key to solar energy utilization

Widespread use of solar energy heating and cooling systems is dependent upon their price competitiveness with other systems in the marketplace. There are indications that the degree of accuracy of existing solar insolation data is such that systems must be oversized by 50 percent. Refinement of the solar insolation data could result in a substantial cost reduction of solar heating and cooling systems making these units more competitive with conventional systems. This paper describes a system, the Sunfall Monitor, that provides this capability. The system monitors and records on tape in computer-compatible format the values of the direct and total solar irradiance. Provisions are also incorporated for evaluation of solar cell, collector and absorber material samples. Concepts and discussions for application of the device in relationship to research/development and the solar energy heating and cooling acts conclude the paper.

Kemp, A. J.↗

Sustained-arc ignition system

Process results in long-duration sparks which allow leaner, cleaner combustion. Procedure is not limited by available energy-storage devices and can produce continuous spark of as long duration as desired for optimum engine operation and pollution reduction. System can be modified to operate on engines not using distributor points and can be used with conventional Kettering ignitions.

Birchenough, A. G.↗

Advanced turbine disk designs to increase reliability of aircraft engines

Results of analytical studies to improve the low cycle fatigue lives and reliability of turbine disks in high performance gas turbine engines are presented. Advanced disk concepts were evaluated for the first stage high pressure turbines of the CF6-50 and JT8D-17 engines. The advanced disk designs are compared to the existing disks on the bases of cycles to crack initiation and overspeed capability for initially unflawed disks, crack propagation cycles to failure for initially flawed disks, and available kinetic energy of disk burst fragments.

Kaufman, A.↗

Improved turbine disk design to increase reliability of aircraft jet engines

An analytical study was conducted on a bore entry cooled turbine disk for the first stage of the JT8D-17 high pressure turbine which had the potential to improve disk life over existing design. The disk analysis included the consideration of transient and steady state temperature, blade loading, creep, low cycle fatigue, fracture mechanics and manufacturing flaws. The improvement in life of the bore entry cooled turbine disk was determined by comparing it with the existing disk made of both conventional and advanced (Astroloy) disk materials. The improvement in crack initiation life of the Astroloy bore entry cooled disk is 87% and 67% over the existing disk made of Waspaloy and Astroloy, respectively. Improvement in crack propagation life is 124% over the Waspaloy and 465% over the Astroloy disks. The available kinetic energies of disk fragments calculated for the three disks indicate a lower fragment energy level for the bore entry cooled turbine disk.

Alver, A. S.↗

Advanced turbine disk designs to increase reliability of aircraft engines

Results of analytical studies to improve the low cycle fatigue lives and reliability of turbine disks in high-performance gas turbine engines are presented. Advanced disk concepts were evaluated for the first-stage high pressure turbines of the CF6-50 and JT8D-17 engines. The advanced disk designs are compared to the existing disks on the bases of cycles to crack initiation and overspeed capability for initially unflawed disks, crack propagation cycles to failure for initially flawed disks, and available kinetic energy of disk burst fragments.

Kaufman, A.↗

A theoretical study of the efficiency of the general circulation

The paper examines the problem of explaining the atmospheric efficiency, or equivalently, the rate of generation of available potential energy (APE) by diabatic heating. Attention is focused on determining the maximum possible rate of generation of APE and its accompanying temperature field, which does not require a knowledge of the atmospheric motions leading to temperature distribution. Qualitative and quantitative results indicate that the atmosphere may be operating within approximately a factor of 2 of its maximum efficiency. The general circulation may be operating at nearly its maximum efficiency.

Schulman, L. L.↗

Remote measurement of pollution from aircraft

This paper discusses the problem of the remote measurement of tropospheric air pollution from aircraft platforms. Following a discussion of the energy sources available for passive remote sensing and the location of the absorption bands of the gases, it describes the spectral resolution that would be required and the relative merits of the shorter and longer infrared wavelengths. It then traces the evolution of one instrument concept (the gas filter correlation radiometer) to its present state, and describes flight results that show the technique to be capable of measuring carbon monoxide over water. A new instrument is described that will allow the measurements to be extended to areas over land.

Reichle, H. G., Jr.↗

Mesospheric heating due to intense tropospheric convection

A series of rocket measurements made twice daily at Wallops Island, Va., revealed a rapid heating of the mesosphere on the order of 10 K on days when thunderstorms or squall lines were in the area. This heating is explained as the result of frictional dissipation of vertically propagating internal gravity waves generated by intense tropospheric convection. Ray-tracing theory is used to determine the spectrum of gravity wave groups that actually reach mesospheric heights. This knowledge is used in an equation describing the spectral energy density of a penetrative convective element to calculate the fraction of the total energy initially available to excite those waves that do reach the level of heating. This value, converted into a vertical velocity, is used as the lower boundary condition for a multilayer model used to determine the detailed structure of the vertically propagating waves. The amount of frictional dissipation produced by the waves is calculated from the solutions of the frictionless model by use of a vertically varying eddy viscosity coefficient. The heating produced by the dissipation is then calculated from the thermodynamic equation.

Taylor, L. L.↗

Dynamics of the solar transition zone

Time-resolved profiles of the 1548-A C IV line arising from the solar transition region are analyzed in order to determine whether the 300-sec oscillations characteristic of the photosphere and chromosphere penetrate into the transition zone and to measure the rms amplitude of transition-zone disturbances as well as their dependence on solar activity. The rms velocity amplitude is used to set limits on the mechanical energy flux available for solar heating. A power-spectrum analysis indicates that acoustic waves appear to have been detected in the transition zone, that at least one case of a strong 200- to 300-sec oscillation was observed, but that strong periodicities are not found on the average in either the intensity or the velocity field. It is suggested that the rms velocity that may be attributed to directly observable wave motion is between 3 and 7 km/s, depending on whether the individual emission elements seen in rocket spectra are coherent or independent in phase.

Bruner, E. C., Jr.↗