Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “applied meteorology”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Correlation of Mesoscale Humidity Anomalies With Mesoscale Organization of Marine Stratocumulus From Observations Over the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

The structure of mesoscale cellular organization in marine cloud-topped boundary layers is found to be well characterized by using a novel compositing approach based on mesoscale variations in the column water vapor path (WVP). The approach is applied to ground-based observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic site. Based on a set of satellite and ground-based observational criteria, 381 hr of closed-cell and 227 hr of open-cell cases were selected from late 2015 to early 2018. Strong correlations are found between mesoscale-filtered cloud properties and WVP for both closed-cell and open-cell regimes. In the moist atmospheric columns, the clouds are thicker with higher tops and lower bases, and stronger precipitation compared to that in the dry columns. Overall, cloud properties of open and closed cells covary similarly with mesoscale moisture perturbations, except that the correlation of liquid water path with WVP is much weaker for open cells. The relations of subcloud properties with WVP are also examined. In the moist columns, surface equivalent potential temperature and relative humidity are higher than in the dry columns. A marginally negative correlation between mesoscale-filtered subcloud turbulence eddy dissipation rate and WVP is found for closed cells. These results are consistent with the conceptual model of closed cellular mesoscale circulations of Zhou and Bretherton (2019).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the methane mitigation potential of innovative management in US rice production

Abstract Rice is an important global crop while also contributing significant anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions. To support the future of rice production, more information is needed on the impacts of sustainability-driven management used to grow rice with lower associated methane emissions. Recent support for the impacts of different growing practices in the US has prompted the application of a regional methodology (Tier 2) to estimate methane emissions in different rice growing regions. The methodology estimates rice methane emissions from the US Mid-South (MdS) and California (Cal) using region-specific scaling factors applied to a region-specific baseline flux. In our study, we leverage land cover data and soil clay content to estimate methane emissions using this approach, while also examining how changes in common production practices can affect overall emissions in the US. Our results indicated US rice cultivation produced between 0.32 and 0.45 Tg CH 4 annually, which were approximately 7% and 42% lower on average compared to Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inventories, respectively. Our estimates were 63% greater on average compared to similar methods that lack regional context. Introducing aeration events into irrigation resulted in the greatest methane reductions across both regions. When accounting for differences between baseline and reduction scenarios, the US MdS typically had higher mitigation potential compared to Cal. The differences in cumulative mitigation potential across the 2008–2020 period were likely driven by lower production area clay content for the US MdS compared to Cal. The added spatial representation in the Tier 2 approach is useful in surveying how impactful methane-reducing practices might be within and across regions.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Clustering of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States

Abstract The serial occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the US West Coast can lead to prolonged and exacerbated hydrologic impacts, threatening flood‐control and water‐supply infrastructure due to soil saturation and diminished recovery time between storms. Here a statistical approach for quantifying subseasonal temporal clustering among extreme events is applied to a 41‐year (1979–2019) wintertime AR catalog across the western United States (US). Observed AR occurrence, compared against a randomly distributed AR timeseries with the same average event density, reveals temporal clustering at a greater‐than‐random rate across the western US with a distinct geographical pattern. Compared to the Pacific Northwest, significant AR clusters over the northern Coastal Range of California and Sierra Nevada are more frequent and occur over longer time periods. Clusters along the California Coastal Range typically persist for 2 weeks, are composed of 4–5 ARs per cluster, and account for over 85% of total AR occurrence. Across the northwest Coast‐Cascade Ranges, clusters account for ∼50% of total AR occurrence, typically last 8–10 days, and contain 3–4 individual AR events. Based on precipitation data from a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling of reanalysis, the fractions of total and extreme hourly precipitation attributable to AR clusters are largest along the northern California coast and in the Sierra Nevada. Interannual variability among clusters highlights their importance for determining whether a particular water year is anomalously wet or dry. The mechanisms behind this unusual clustering are unclear and require further research.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Analysis of Uncertainties in Warm-Rain Parameterizations in Climate Models Based on In Situ Measurements

Abstract Because of the coarse grid size of Earth system models (ESMs), representing warm-rain processes in ESMs is a challenging task involving multiple sources of uncertainty. Previous studies evaluated warm-rain parameterizations mainly according to their performance in emulating collision–coalescence rates for local droplet populations over a short period of a few seconds. The representativeness of these local process rates comes into question when applied in ESMs for grid sizes on the order of 100 km and time steps on the order of 20–30 min. We evaluate several widely used warm-rain parameterizations in ESM application scenarios. In the comparison of local and instantaneous autoconversion rates, the two parameterization schemes based on numerical fitting to stochastic collection equation (SCE) results perform best. However, because of Jessen’s inequality, their performance deteriorates when grid-mean, instead of locally resolved, cloud properties are used in their simulations. In contrast, the effect of Jessen’s inequality partly cancels the overestimation problem of two semianalytical schemes, leading to an improvement in the ESM-like comparison. In the assessment of uncertainty due to the large time step of ESMs, it is found that the rainwater tendency simulated by the SCE is roughly linear for time steps smaller than 10 min, but the nonlinearity effect becomes significant for larger time steps, leading to errors up to a factor of 4 for a time step of 20 min. After considering all uncertainties, the grid-mean and time-averaged rainwater tendency based on the parameterization schemes is mostly within a factor of 4 of the local benchmark results simulated by SCE.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗
NASA NTRS2020

Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT): The Influence of Turbulence on Shaped Sonic Booms

The objectives of the Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Program were to develop and validate, via research flight experiments under a range of realistic atmospheric conditions, one numeric turbulence model research code and one classic turbulence model research code using traditional N-wave booms in the presence of atmospheric turbulence, and to apply these models to assess the effects of turbulence on the levels of shaped sonic booms predicted from low boom aircraft designs. The SonicBAT program has successfully investigated sonic boom turbulence effects through the execution of flight experiments at two NASA centers, Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), collecting a comprehensive set of acoustic and atmospheric turbulence data that were used to validate the numeric and classic turbulence models developed. The validated codes were incorporated into the PCBoom sonic boom prediction software and used to estimate the effect of turbulence on the levels of shaped sonic booms associated with several low boom aircraft designs. The SonicBAT program was a four year effort that consisted of turbulence model development and refinement throughout the entire period as well as extensive flight test planning that culminated with the two research flight tests being conducted in the second and third years of the program. The SonicBAT team, led by Wyle, includes partners from the Pennsylvania State University, Lockheed Martin, Gulfstream Aerospace, Boeing, Eagle Aeronautics, Technical & Business Systems, and the Laboratory of Fluid Mechanics and Acoustics (France). A number of collaborators, including the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, also participated by supporting the experiments with human and equipment resources at their own expense. Three NASA centers, AFRC, Langley Research Center (LaRC), and KSC were essential to the planning and conduct of the experiments. The experiments involved precision flight of either an F-18A or F-18B executing steady, level passes at supersonic airspeeds in a turbulent atmosphere to create sonic boom signatures that had been distorted by turbulence. The flights spanned a range of atmospheric turbulence conditions at NASA Armstrong and Kennedy in order to provide a variety of conditions for code validations. The SonicBAT experiments at both sites were designed to capture simultaneous F-18A or F-18B onboard flight instrumentation data, high fidelity ground based and airborne acoustic data, surface and upper air meteorological data, and additional meteorological data from ultrasonic anemometers and SODARs to determine the local atmospheric turbulence and boundary layer height.

Bradley, Kevin A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Which Combinations of Environmental Conditions and Microphysical Parameter Values Produce a Given Orographic Precipitation Distribution?

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θ sfc ), and the snow fall speed coefficient (A s ). RH, U, and A s exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θ sfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗
DOE OSTI2026

Association of short-term ambient environmental exposures with suicide and drug overdose deaths among U.S. Veterans

This study examined associations between short-term ambient environmental exposures and suicide (n = 3210) and overdose mortality (n = 4293; 2226 opioid-related) among U.S. Veterans from 2018 to 2019. Daily exposure to 24-hour maximum temperature, average atmospheric pressure, average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), 1-hour maximum nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and 8-hour maximum ozone (O 3 ) was assessed at the decedent's county of residence on the day of death and up to 6 days prior. A national bi-directional, time-stratified case-crossover design was applied. Conditional logistic regression models estimated associations between each exposure and suicide or overdose deaths, overall, and stratified by season, region, elevation, and urbanicity. Over lag days 0-1, an interquartile range increase in maximum temperature was associated with increased suicide (19%) and overdose (27%) mortality, with stronger summer effects for suicide (55%) and overdose (71%). In winter, interquartile range increases in atmospheric pressure, PM 2.5 , and NO 2 were associated with 104%, 15%, and 19% increases in suicide mortality. Maximum temperature was associated with a 22% increase in suicide risk in metropolitan areas and 57% in the Western U.S., while NO 2 was associated with a 26% increase in overdose mortality in nonmetropolitan areas. Findings suggest environmental stressors contribute to suicide and overdose mortality among Veterans, supporting environmentally informed prevention efforts.

air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind-driven emissions of coarse-mode particles in an urban environment

Abstract. Quantifying surface–atmosphere exchange rates of particles is important for understanding the role of suspended particulate matter in radiative transfer, clouds, precipitation, and climate change. Emissions of coarse-mode particles with a diameter greater than 0.5 µm provide giant cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. These emissions are critical for understanding the evolution of cloud microphysical properties yet remain poorly understood. Here we introduce a new method that uses lidar retrievals of the elastic backscatter and Doppler velocity to obtain surface number emissions of particles with a diameter greater than 0.53 µm. The technique is applied to study particle number fluxes over a 2-month period from 1 June to 10 August 2022 during the TRACER campaign at an urban site near Houston, TX, USA. We found that all the observed fluxes were positive (upwards), indicating particle emission from the surface. The fluxes followed a diurnal pattern and peaked near noon local time. Flux intensity varied through the 2 months with multi-day periods of strong fluxes and multi-day periods of weak fluxes. Emission particle number fluxes peaked near ∼ 100 cm−2 s−1. The daily averaged emission fluxes correlated with friction velocity and were anticorrelated with surface relative humidity. The emission flux can be parameterized as F= 3000 u*4, where u* is the friction velocity in m s−1 and the emission flux F is in cm−2 s−1. The u* dependence is consistent with emission from wind-driven erosion. Estimated values for the mass flux are in the lower range of literature values from non-urban sites. These results demonstrate that urban environments may play an important role in supplying coarse-mode particles to the boundary layer. We anticipate that quantification of these emissions will help constrain aerosol–cloud interaction models that use prognostic aerosol schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Eulerian Bin and Lagrangian Particle-Based Microphysics in Simulations of Nonprecipitating Cumulus

A single nonprecipitating cumulus congestus setup is applied to compare droplet spectra grown by the diffusion of water vapor in Eulerian bin and particle-based Lagrangian microphysics schemes. Bin microphysics represent droplet spectral evolution applying the spectral density function. In the Lagrangian microphysics, computational particles referred to as superdroplets are followed in time and space with each superdroplet representing a multiplicity of natural cloud droplets. The same cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation and identical representation of the droplet diffusional growth allow the comparison. The piggybacking method is used with the two schemes operating in a single simulation, one scheme driving the dynamics and the other one piggybacking the simulated flow. Piggybacking allows point-by-point comparison of droplet spectra predicted by the two schemes. Overall, the results show the impact of inherent limitations of the two microphysics simulation methods, numerical diffusion in the Eulerian scheme and a limited number of superdroplets in the Lagrangian scheme. Numerical diffusion in the Eulerian scheme results in a more dilution of the cloud upper half and thus smaller cloud droplet mean radius. The Lagrangian scheme typically has larger spatial fluctuations of droplet spectral properties. A significantly larger mean spectral width in the bin microphysics across the entire cloud depth is the largest difference between the two schemes. A fourfold increase of the number of superdroplets per grid volume and a twofold increase of the spectral resolution and thus the number of bins have small impact on the results and provide only minor changes to the comparison between simulated cloud properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT Suite of Legacy and Current Satellite Products in Support of Tropical Analysis and Forecasting

The NASA Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. SPoRT has applied data and capabilities from a variety of research-oriented missions to improve the operational analysis and short-term forecasting of the tropical environment and tropical cyclones(TC).Toward researching new products, SPoRT is examining the diurnal cycle of TC intensity by observing changes in precipitation, winds, and midlevel moisture, including the use of NUCAPS soundings to assess the moisture and temperature environment around TCs, as well as examining changes in sounding profiles associated with the TC diurnal cycle. SPoRT has developed capabilities to analyze the evolution and diurnal cycle of GPM/IMERG rain rates and GLM lightning characteristics associated with TC, by compass and up-/down-shear quadrants relative to the cyclone center. As Early Adopters in the Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, SPoRT is also in the process of developing new experimental products utilizing TROPICS data. Furthermore, SPoRT is investigating the relationship between TC intensity and lightning flash size and optical energy. MSFC hosts a GOES ground rebroadcast station which enables the potential for very low latency GLM products. These products provide the ability to monitor tropical regions/systems in data-void oceanic regions and to fill the gaps in traditional observational systems. SPoRT seeks to expand our collaborations with operational centers and other stakeholders to provide new tools to aid in tropical analysis and forecasting.

satellite remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗
NASA NTRS1996

A technique for determining cloud free vs cloud contaminated pixels in satellite imagery

Since the first earth orbiting satellite sent pictures of the earth back to them, atmospheric scientists have been focused on the possibilities of using that information as both a forecasting tool and as a meteorological research tool. With the latest generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) now entering service, that view of the earth yields views at a frequency and resolution never before available. These satellites have imagers with a five band multi-spectral capability with high spatial resolution. In addition, the sounder has eighteen thermal infrared (IR) channels plus one low-resolution visible band. With a resolution as small as one kilometer, GOES provides scientists with a powerful eye on the atmosphere. Menzel and Purdom (1994) detail both the imager and sounder capability as well as other systems on the GOES satellites. Immediately apparent in the visible channel are the patterns of clouds swirling over both oceans and continents. These clouds range in size from huge planetary systems covering thousands of kilometers to puffy fair weather cumulus clouds on the order of half a kilometer in size. With the IR sensors temperature patterns are observed. High clouds appear very cold, while low stratus field show temperatures near that of the surface. The surface, in turn, generally appears warmer than the clouds. It would seem then a simple manner to determine cloud and surface temperature from the imagery, but such is not the case. While most of the atmospheric constituents are well mixed and homogeneous, water vapor is not. The water molecule, because of its unique structure and vibration modes, affects the transmittance of the atmosphere most notably in the infrared regions. There are regions of the IR spectrum where water vapor acts as a strong absorber, and at others it is nearly transparent. The transparent wavelengths are called windows, and one such window occurs at 11.2 microns. Adjacent to this window at 12.7 microns which is strongly absorbed by water vapor. These two wavelengths form what is known as a split window, the utility of which was used. Using the linearized form of the radiative transfer equation, they were able to use the split window to determine the amount of water vapor present in the atmosphere. Jedlovec developed the physical split-window (PSW) technique which determines the integrated water content (IWC). The PSW method using Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) found on the older versions of the GOES satellites was used. Recently, Jedlovec and colleagues have been attempting to apply the PSW method using full disk IR imagery obtained by the new generation of GOES satellites. IWC is essential for improved analysis and prediction of convective storms which have been observed to develop in regions of both strong and rapidly evolving moisture gradients. It has also been used in the prediction of clouds and precipitation.

Wohlman, Richard A.↗