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At least 721 records · Page 40

Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program

A general purpose program implemented on a computer analyzes steady state and transient flow in a complex fluid network, modeling phase changes, compressibility, mixture thermodynamics and external body forces such as gravity and centrifugal force. A preprocessor provides for the inter- active development of a fluid network simulation having nodes and branches. Mass, energy, and specie conservation equations are solved at the nodes, and momentum conservation equations are solved in the branches. Contained herein are subroutines for computing "real fluid" thermodynamic and thermophysical properties for 12 fluids, and a number of different source options are provided for model- ing momentum sources or sinks in the branches. The system of equations describing the fluid network is solved by a hybrid numerical method that is a combination of the Newton-Raphson and successive substitution methods. Application and verification of this invention are provided through an example problem, which demonstrates that the predictions of the present invention compare most reasonably with test data.

Alok Kumar Majumdar↗

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Vehicle-Level Oxygen/Methane Propulsion System Hotfire Testing at Thermal Vacuum Conditions

A prototype integrated liquid oxygen/liquid methane propulsion system was hot-fire tested at a variety of simulated altitude and thermal conditions in the NASA Glenn Research Center Plum Brook Station In-Space Propulsion Thermal Vacuum Chamber (formerly B2). This test campaign served two purposes: 1) Characterize the performance of the Plum Brook facility in vacuum accumulator mode and 2) Collect the unique data set of an integrated LOX/Methane propulsion system operating in high altitude and thermal vacuum environments (a first). Data from this propulsion system prototype could inform the design of future spacecraft in-space propulsion systems, including landers. The test vehicle for this campaign was the Integrated Cryogenic Propulsion Test Article (ICPTA), which was constructed for this project using assets from the former Morpheus Project rebuilt and outfitted with additional new hardware. The ICPTA utilizes one 2,800 lbf main engine, two 28 lbf and two 7 lbf reaction control engines mounted in two pods, four 48-inch propellant tanks (two each for liquid oxygen and liquid methane), and a cold helium system for propellant tank pressurization. Several hundred sensors on the ICPTA and many more in the test cell collected data to characterize the operation of the vehicle and facility. Multiple notable experiments were performed during this test campaign, many for the first time, including pressure-fed cryogenic reaction control system characterization over a wide range of conditions, coil-on-plug ignition system demonstration at the vehicle level, integrated main engine/RCS operation, and a non-intrusive propellant mass gauging system. The test data includes water-hammer and thermal heat leak data critical to validating models for use in future vehicle design activities. This successful test campaign demonstrated the performance of the updated Plum Brook In-Space Propulsion thermal vacuum chamber and incrementally advanced the state of LOX/Methane propulsion technology through numerous system-level and subsystem experiments.

Morehead, Robert L.↗

A data analytical approach for assessing the efficacy of Operational Technology active defenses against insider threats

In recent years, the need for Operational Technology (OT) defenses has been recognized, serving as an additional line of defense when Information Technology (IT) defenses are bypassed. This is no longer considered an uncommon possibility when dealing with advanced persistent threat (APT) actors expected to be state-sponsored and receiving insider assistance. In these extreme adversarial situations, OT defenses aim to provide another layer of defense for the system, introduced directly at the physical process level, as described by the sensors data, the system model, and control actions. Just like IT defenses, two schools of thought, i.e., passive and active defenses, have emerged to address this challenge. In active defenses, representing the focus of this paper, known signatures, synthesized based on the system's unique characteristics, are inserted into the system. In contradistinction, passive methods rely solely on observing system behavior in search of patterns of normal behavior with deviations thereof representing abnormal behavior. In their most sophisticated implementations, both passive and active defenses rely on the use of data analytics to identify the patterns and synthesize the observed and/or inserted signatures. Past research has shown that passive defenses may be bypassed by APT actors relying on data analytics and their intimate knowledge of the system to evade detection by respecting the patterns identified by the defenders. Here this manuscript explores the use of active defenses under the assumption that the attacker has privileged access to the system, including access to the system's model and sensors data. Specifically, this manuscript assesses the ability of active defenses to remain invisible to the attackers, and discusses the associated challenges that must be addressed to ensure their resiliency against APT actors.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Diversity in Photoprotection and Energy Balancing in Terrestrial and Aquatic Phototrophs

The evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis enabled organisms to use sunlight as an energy source, allowing them to colonize new niches. At the same time, life (as we know it) places severe constraints on photosynthesis. For example, the initial reactions of photosynthesis involve highly energetic intermediates that, if not controlled, can generate highly toxic side products (especially reactive oxygen species, ROS), that can damage other essential components of the organisms it powers. Photosynthesis must therefore be tightly regulated to balance the need for efficient energy conversion with the necessity of avoiding photodamage (Gust D, Kramer D, Moore A, Moore T, Vermaas W, Mater Res Bull 33:383–389, 2008). A related constraint on photosynthesis is the need to precisely balance how much energy is stored in ATP and NADPH to precisely meet biochemical demands. If this balancing does not occur, the system will fail, leading to photodamage (Kramer DM, Evans JR, Plant Physiol 155:70–78, 2011). Consideration of these requirements is essential for efforts to improve the efficiency of photosynthesis by introducing CO 2 concentrating mechanisms, altering metabolism or biosynthetic pathways to shunt energy to alternative products (Kramer DM, Evans JR, Plant Physiol 155:70–78, 2011). These balancing processes must be extremely robust to contend with the rapid and unpredictable fluctuations in environmental conditions and metabolic demands that occur in nature. A large body of work has come from model systems, especially terrestrial higher plants and the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, leading to a model for the regulation of light reactions that involves 1) sensing of the pH gradient component of the thylakoid proton motive force (pmf), and 2) the redox state of the plastoquinone- and stromal pools. Over the short term, these sensors trigger regulation of light capture by altering the activity of ATP synthase leading to adjustments in lumen pH, which fine tunes light capture through nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) and control of electron flow by adjusting the rate of PQH 2 oxidation at the b 6 f complex. Simultaneously, this system controls the balance of ATP/NADPH by adjusting electron flux to linear and cyclic electron flow pathways to balance ATP/NADPH. This integrated “pmf paradigm” model explains much of the existing data on plants and green algae, but may not extend to other diverse organisms. This review considers how advances in our understanding of photosynthesis over the past 7–8 years, particularly in the discoveries of diverse biochemical/biophysical mechanisms in aquatic photosynthetic species, affects the view of energy balance, including the shunting of electrons to O 2 through the flavodiiron proteins (FLV), the plastid terminal oxidase, the dissipation of electric field by ion movements, and the activation of alternative electron sinks. Furthermore, we will introduce the basic model that has been developed for higher plant chloroplasts, then contrast these with selected aquatic systems, focusing on how the differences impact the needs to re-balance both energy input and its partitioning into energy currencies.

Kanazawa, Atsuko↗

A Physical Model for Understanding the Activation of MoS 2 Basal-plane Sulfur Atoms for the Hydrogen Evolution Reaction

All the DFT calculations are done with the Vienna Ab Initio Simulation Package (VASP) using the projector augmented wave method. The Bayesian error estimation exchange-correlation functionals (BEEF) with van der Waals interactions are employed. A plane-wave cutoff energy of 400 eV is used together with PAW-PBE potentials where semi core p states are treated as valence. All the calculations allow for spin-polarization. The structures are relaxed until the force is converged to < 0.01 eV/Å. The lattice parameter of MoS 2 unit cell, optimized with this functional, is 3.19 Å. A (4×4) supercell is used to model all the transition metal doped MoS 2 systems studied here, including those with S vacancies. For calculations in the initial dopant structure exploration, the Brillouin zone is sampled with a 3x3x1 Monkhorst-Pack k-point mesh. A 6×6×1 Monkhorst-Pack k-point mesh is used for the H binding energy and density of states calculations. In all calculations, the vacuum layer is set as 15 Å to eliminate periodic interaction perpendicular to the basal plane.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Electronic coarse-graining of long conjugated molecules: Case study of non-fullerene acceptors

By considering only one electronic state per molecule, charge transport models of molecular solids neglect intramolecular charge transfer. This approximation excludes materials with quasi-degenerate spatially separated frontier orbitals, such as non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) and symmetric thermally activated delayed fluorescence emitters. By analyzing the electronic structure of room-temperature molecular conformers of a prototypical NFA, ITIC-4F, we conclude that the electron is localized on one of the two acceptor blocks with the mean intramolecular transfer integral of 120 meV, which is comparable with intermolecular couplings. Therefore, the minimal basis for acceptor–donor–acceptor (A–D–A) molecules consists of two molecular orbitals localized on the acceptor blocks. This basis is robust even with respect to geometry distortions in an amorphous solid, in contrast to the basis of two lowest unoccupied canonical molecular orbitals withstanding only thermal fluctuations in a crystal. The charge carrier mobility can be underestimated by a factor of two when using single site approximation for A–D–A molecules in their typical crystalline packings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Decentralized Control of Cascaded H-Bridge Inverters for Medium-Voltage Grid Integration: Preprint

This paper introduces a fully decentralized control strategy that allows for individualized active and reactive power control of H-bridge inverters connected in series. After formulating a model of the system power flows, we outline a communications-free approach where each inverter can act on independent commands. Inverter-level feedback is accomplished locally via a measurement of current flowing through the stack. A key feature is the lack of any centralized control routines or phase-locked loop. In this framework, the reactive power control loops achieve voltage synchronization among the converters and the grid, and the active power control loops modulate the terminal voltage amplitudes that influence power delivery. Furthermore, pole placement via state feedback is used to ensure stability of voltage synchronization while also enabling tracking of bidirectional power commands. Simulations are presented to validate the proposed approach.

communication-free modular converter control↗

Impact of phase state and non-ideal mixing on equilibration timescales of secondary organic aerosol partitioning

Abstract. Evidence has accumulated that secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) exhibit complex morphologies with multiple phases that can adopt amorphous semisolid or glassy phase states. However, experimental analysis and numerical modeling on the formation and evolution of SOA still often employ equilibrium partitioning with an ideal mixing assumption in the particle phase. Here we apply the kinetic multilayer model of gas–particle partitioning (KM-GAP) to simulate condensation of semi-volatile species into a core–shell phase-separated particle to evaluate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. By varying bulk diffusivity and the activity coefficient of the condensing species in the shell, we probe the complex interplay of mass transfer kinetics and the thermodynamics of partitioning. We found that the interplay of non-ideality and phase state can impact SOA partitioning kinetics significantly. The effect of non-ideality on SOA partitioning is slight for liquid particles but becomes prominent in semisolid or solid particles. If the condensing species is miscible with a low activity coefficient in the viscous shell phase, the particle can reach equilibrium with the gas phase long before the dissolution of concentration gradients in the particle bulk. For the condensation of immiscible species with a high activity coefficient in the semisolid shell, the mass concentration in the shell may become higher or overshoot its equilibrium concentration due to slow bulk diffusion through the viscous shell for excess mass to be transferred to the core phase. Equilibration timescales are shorter for the condensation of lower-volatility species into semisolid shell; as the volatility increases, re-evaporation becomes significant as desorption is faster for volatile species than bulk diffusion in a semisolid matrix, leading to an increase in equilibration timescale. We also show that the equilibration timescale is longer in an open system relative to a closed system especially for partitioning of miscible species; hence, caution should be exercised when interpreting and extrapolating closed-system chamber experimental results to atmosphere conditions. Our results provide a possible explanation for discrepancies between experimental observations of fast particle–particle mixing and predictions of long mixing timescales in viscous particles and provide useful insights into description and treatment of SOA in aerosol models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of Active Sites in DSMC to Capture Pitting of Oxidizing Carbon Materials

In this work we demonstrate a newly developed capability to capture pitting of carbon fibers in DSMC simulations, specifically using the Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA) code. State-of-the-art reactive surface models in DSMC compute collision dependent carbon consumption rates (usually through desorption of CO) based on a set of surface reactions that has been derived from molecular beam experiments. The reactivity on each carbon surface element is constant in those models, such that the carbon surface recedes uniformly as a result of ablation. However, it is well known that in reality the carbon surface has locally different reaction rates due to the presence of defects at the atomic scale. These defective sites have a much higher reactivity than the average sites (2-3 orders of magnitude) and are first to react during ablation leading to its removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these ”active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. Recently a detailed surface chemistry framework was developed in SPARTA, capable of incorporating various reaction mechanisms such as adsorption, desorption, Eley-Rideal (ER) and Langmuir-Hinshelwood (LH) mechanisms. Within this framework, we have implemented the capability of a single surface having multiple site sets with different reactivities. Using this feature, we can simulate the presence of active sites on carbon surfaces, whose reactivity is much greater than an average site as a result of defects. We have implemented the active site fraction as a property of surface elements within SPARTA, which is directly proportional to the local reactivity of each surface element. By introducing an initial distribution of the active site fraction across the carbon surface, and propagating it in a manner that mimics the evolution of real reacting carbon surfaces, we are able to capture the formation and growth of etch pits as a result of surface consumption reactions such as oxidation.

DSMC↗

WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) is a state-of-the-art land surface model that simulates the intricate interactions between the terrestrial land surface and other components of the Earth system. Originating from the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, ELM has been under active development, with added new features and functionality, including plant hydraulics, radiation–topography interaction, subsurface multiphase flow, and more explicit land use and management practices. This study integrates ELM v2.1 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; WRF-ELM) model through a modified Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) framework, enabling affordable high-resolution regional modeling by leveraging ELM's innovative features alongside WRF's diverse atmospheric parameterization options. This framework includes a top-level driver for variable communication between WRF and ELM and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) caps for the WRF atmospheric component and ELM workflow control, encompassing initialization, execution, and finalization. Importantly, this LILAC–ESMF framework demonstrates a more modular approach compared to previous coupling efforts between WRF and land surface models. It maintains the integrity of ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future developments in ELM to WRF-ELM. To test the ability of the coupled model to capture land–atmosphere interactions over regions with a variety of land uses and land covers, we conducted high-resolution (4 km) WRF-ELM ensemble simulations over the Great Lakes region (GLR) in the summer of 2018 and systematically compared the results against observations, reanalysis data, and WRF-CTSM (WRF coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model). In general, the coupled WRF-ELM model has reasonably captured the spatial distribution of surface state variables and fluxes across the GLR, particularly over the natural vegetation areas. The evaluation results provide a baseline reference for further improvements in ELM in the regional application of high-resolution weather and climate predictions. Our work serves as an example to the model development community for expanding an advanced land surface model's capability to represent fully-coupled land–atmosphere interactions at fine spatial scales. The development and release of WRF-ELM marks a significant advancement for the ELM user community, providing opportunities for fine-scale regional representation, parameter calibration in coupled mode, and examination of new schemes with atmospheric feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating ionization states and continuum lowering from ab initio path integral Monte Carlo simulations for warm dense hydrogen

Warm dense matter (WDM) is an active field of research, with applications ranging from astrophysics to inertial confinement fusion. Ionization degree and continuum lowering are important quantities to understand how materials behave under these conditions, but can be difficult to diagnose since experimental campaigns are limited and often require model-dependent analysis. This is especially true for hydrogen, which has a comparably low scattering cross section, making high-quality data particularly difficult to obtain. Consequently, building equation of state tables often relies on simulations in combination with untested approximations to extract properties from experiments. Here, we investigate an approach for extracting the ionization potential depression and ionization degree—quantities which are otherwise not directly accessible from the physical model—from first-principles path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations utilizing a chemical model. In contrast to experimental measurements, where noise and nonequilibrium effects add to the uncertainty of the inferred parameters, PIMC simulations provide a clean signal with well-defined thermodynamic conditions. Comparisons against commonly used models show a qualitative agreement, but we find deviations primarily for the high-density and high-temperature cases. We also demonstrate the decreasing sensitivity of the dynamic structure factor with respect to both ionization and continuum lowering for increasing scattering angles in x-ray Thomson scattering experiments. Our work has important implications for the design of future experiments, but also offers qualitative understanding of structure factors and the imaginary-time correlation function obtained from first-principles quantum Monte Carlo simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NUB1 traps unfolded FAT10 for ubiquitin-independent degradation by the 26S proteasome

The ubiquitin-like modifier FAT10 targets hundreds of proteins in the mammalian immune system to the 26S proteasome for degradation. This degradation pathway requires the cofactor NUB1, yet the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Here, we reconstituted a minimal in vitro system with human components and revealed that NUB1 uses the intrinsic instability of FAT10 to trap its N-terminal ubiquitin-like domain in an unfolded state and deliver it to the 26S proteasome for engagement, allowing the degradation of FAT10-ylated substrates in a ubiquitin-independent and p97-independent manner. Using hydrogen–deuterium exchange, structural modeling and site-directed mutagenesis, we identified the formation of an intricate complex with FAT10 that activates NUB1 for docking to the 26S proteasome, and our cryo-EM studies visualized the highly dynamic NUB1 complex bound to the proteasomal Rpn1 subunit during FAT10 delivery and the early stages of ATP-dependent degradation. These findings identified a previously unknown mode of cofactor-mediated, ubiquitin-independent substrate delivery to the 26S proteasome that relies on trapping partially unfolded states for engagement by the proteasomal ATPase motor.

Arkinson, Connor↗

Binary Oscillatory Crossflow Electrophoresis

Electrophoresis has long been recognized as an effective analytic technique for the separation of proteins and other charged species, however attempts at scaling up to accommodate commercial volumes have met with limited success. In this report we describe a novel electrophoretic separation technique - Binary Oscillatory Crossflow Electrophoresis (BOCE). Numerical simulations indicate that the technique has the potential for preparative scale throughputs with high resolution, while simultaneously avoiding many problems common to conventional electrophoresis. The technique utilizes the interaction of an oscillatory electric field and a transverse oscillatory shear flow to create an active binary filter for the separation of charged protein species. An oscillatory electric field is applied across the narrow gap of a rectangular channel inducing a periodic motion of charged protein species. The amplitude of this motion depends on the dimensionless electrophoretic mobility, alpha = E(sub o)mu/(omega)d, where E(sub o) is the amplitude of the electric field oscillations, mu is the dimensional mobility, omega is the angular frequency of oscillation and d is the channel gap width. An oscillatory shear flow is induced along the length of the channel resulting in the separation of species with different mobilities. We present a model that predicts the oscillatory behavior of charged species and allows estimation of both the magnitude of the induced convective velocity and the effective diffusivity as a function of a in infinitely long channels. Numerical results indicate that in addition to the mobility dependence, the steady state behavior of solute species may be strongly affected by oscillating fluid into and out of the active electric field region at the ends of the cell. The effect is most pronounced using time dependent shear flows of the same frequency (cos((omega)t)) flow mode) as the electric field oscillations. Under such conditions, experiments indicate that solute is drawn into the cell from reservoirs at both ends of the cell leading to a large mass build up. As a consequence, any initially induced mass flux will vanish after short times. This effect was not captured by the infinite channel model and hence numerical and experimental results deviated significantly. The revised model including finite cell lengths and reservoir volumes allowed quantitative predictions of the time history of the concentration profile throughout the system. This latter model accurately describes the fluxes observed for both oscillatory flow modes in experiments using single protein species. Based on the results obtained from research funded under NASA grant NAG-8-1080.S, we conclude that binary separations are not possible using purely oscillatory flow modes because of end effects associated with the cos((omega)t) mode. Our research shows, however, that a combination of cos(2(omega)t) and steady flow should lead to efficient separation free of end effects. This possibility is currently under investigation.

Molloy, Richard F.↗

AuPd Nanoicosahedra: Atomic-Level Surface Modulation for Optimization of Electrocatalytic and Photocatalytic Energy Conversion

Modulation of bimetallic nanocatalysts with atomic precision would allow for significant increases in catalyst activity through the optimization of heteroatomic interplay. In practice, this level of control over homogeneously turning the heteroatomic states in the surface regions of catalysts remains a great challenge for practical applications requiring mass production. In this work, a one-step aqueous strategy for preparation of AuPd nanoicosahedra core–shell structures has been developed. By turning the molar ratio of Au and Pd precursors, the nanoicosahedra could be made with uniform core composition (Pd ~20%) and largely flexible surface compositions (Pd: 20–70%). Under model reactions of electrochemical ethanol oxidation (EOR) and 4-nitrophenol (4-NP) reduction, the Au 55 Pd 45 surface displayed superior activities. Here, x-ray absorption spectroscopy revealed that AuPd nanoicosahedra with Pd-poor surfaces (Au 79 Pd 21 and Au 60 Pd 40 ) maintain Au-like electronic structures while those with Pd-rich surfaces are more Pd-like. The Au 55 Pd 45 surface struck a delicate balance between the two extremes, leading to the optimal Au–Pd interplay for catalytic performance. Overall, the development of a one-step aqueous strategy for atomic-level control over bimetallic nanoparticle surface states is an important milestone for future advances in catalysis. Our findings in atomic-scale catalyst design will bring deep insights into the fields of nanosynthesis and heterogeneous catalysis, which will be beneficial for further scientific breakthroughs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

Nese, Jon M.↗