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Bridging the Gap from Networking Technologies to Applications: Workshop Report

The objective of the Next Generation Internet (NGI) Federal program is threefold, encompassing development of networking technologies, high-performance network testbeds, and revolutionary applications. There have been notable advances in emerging network technologies and several nationwide testbeds have been established, but the integration of emerging technologies into applications is lagging. To help bridge this gap between developers of NGI networking technologies and developers of NGI applications, the NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) project hosted a two-day workshop at NASA Ames Research Center in August 1999. This paper presents a summary of the results of this workshop and also describes some of the challenges NREN is facing while incorporating new technologies into HPCC and other NASA applications. The workshop focused on three technologies - Quality of Service (QoS), advanced multicast, and security-and five major NGI application areas - telemedicine, digital earth, digital video, distributed data-intensive applications, and computational infrastructure applications. Network technology experts, application developers, and NGI testbed representatives came together at the workshop to promote cross-fertilization between the groups. Presentations on the first day, including an overview of the three technologies, application case studies and testbed status reports, laid the foundation for discussions on the second day. The objective of these latter discussions, held within smaller breakout groups, was to establish a coherent picture of the current status of the various pieces of each of the three technologies, to create a roadmap outlining future technology development, and to offer technological guidance to application developers. In this paper we first present a brief overview of the NGI applications that were represented at the workshop, focusing on the identification of technological advances that have successfully been incorporated in each application and technological challenges that remain. Next we present the technology roadmaps that were created at the workshop, summarizing the status of various mechanisms that are currently under development and forecasting when various advances are likely to occur within the next one-to-three-year time span. Then we identify issues that were raised at the workshop that might hinder technology development or that might impede integration into NGI applications. We also report some specific guidelines that were offered at the workshop to enable application developers to integrate and effectively use emerging NGI technology building blocks. Finally, we describe NREN activities to incorporate emerging technologies into NASA applications. These activities include support for other NASA High-Performance Computing and Communications Program areas such as IPG (Information Power Grid), support for NASA science enterprises such as Earth science and Mars program prototyping activities, support for satellite/terrestrial networking applications such as the TransAtlantic and TransPacific demonstrations and the Interplanetary Internet, support for NASA telemedicine applications such as the Virtual Collaborative Clinic, and participation in NGI advanced technology testbed initiatives such as the QBone and the NTON/Supernet. For each activity we highlight the primary technological challenge that is associated with it.

Johnson, Marjory J.↗

Robust Decentralized Secondary Control Scheme for Inverter-based Power Networks

Inverter-dominated microgrids are quickly becoming a key building block of future power systems. They rely on centralized controllers that can provide reliability and resiliency in extreme events. Nonetheless, communication failures due to cyber-physical attacks or natural disasters can make autonomous operation of islanded microgrids challenging. This paper examines a unified decentralized secondary control scheme that is robust to inverter clock synchronization errors and can be seamlessly applied to grid-following or grid-forming control architectures. The proposed scheme overcomes the well-known stability problem that arises from parallel operation of local integral controllers. Theoretical guarantees for stability are provided along with criteria to appropriately tune the secondary control gains to achieve good frequency regulation performance while ensuring fair power sharing. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated through simulations on a 5-bus microgrid with four grid-forming inverters.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Security-Constrained Unit Commitment for Electricity Market: Modeling, Solution Methods, and Future Challenges

This paper summarizes the technical activities of the IEEE Task Force on Solving Large Scale Optimization Problems in Electricity Market and Power System Applications. This Task Force was established by the IEEE Technology and Innovation Subcommittee to first review the state-of-the-art of the security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) business model, its mathematical formulation, and solution techniques in solving electricity market clearing problems. The Task Force then investigated the emerging challenges of future market clearing problems and presented efforts in building benchmark mathematical and business models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth-atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Analyses from satellite measurements reveal that smoke is frequently present solar (emitted thermal) radiation from clouds due to smoke aerosols can be reduced (enhanced) by as much as 100 (20) W/sq m over the month of March 2000. In addition, the reduction in cloud spectral reflectance at 670 run is large enough to lead to significant errors in retrieving cloud properties (e.g., optical thickness and effective radius) from satellite measurements. The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring. Estimating the burning fuel (e.g., bark, branches, and wood), an important part of studying regional carbon cycle, may rely on utilizing a wide range of distinctive spectral features in the shortwave and longwave regions. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. A new initiative will be proposed and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

The Future of NASA Earth Science in the Commercial Cloud: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA produces a large volume and variety of data products that are used every day to support research, decision making, and education. The widespread use of NASA’s Earth Science data is enabled by NASA’s Earth Science Data System (ESDS) program, which oversees the archiving and distribution of these data and invests in the development of new data systems and tools. However, NASA’s current approach to Earth Science data distribution — based on distributed institutional archives with individual on-premises high-performance computing capabilities — faces some significant challenges, including massive increases in data volume from upcoming missions, a greater need for transdisciplinary science that synthesizes many different kinds of observations, and a push to make science more open, inclusive, and accessible. To address these challenges, NASA is aggressively migrating its Earth Science data and related tools and services into the commercial cloud. Migration of data into the commercial cloud can significantly improve NASA’s existing data system capabilities by (1) providing more flexible options for storage and compute (including rapid, as-needed access to state-of-the-art capabilities); (2) by centralizing and standardizing data access, which gives all of NASA’s institutional data centers access to all of each other’s datasets; and (3) by facilitating “analysis-in-place”, whereby users can bring their own computational workflows and tools to the data rather than having to maintain their own copies of NASA datasets. However, migration to the commercial cloud also poses some significant challenges, including (1) managing costs under a “pay-as-you-go” model; (2) incompatibility with existing tools and data formats with object-based storage and network access; (3) vendor lock-in; (4) challenges with data access for workflows that mix on-premise and cloud computing; and (5) standardization for highly diverse data as is present in NASA’s data archive. I conclude with two examples of recent NASA activities showcasing capabilities enabled by the commercial cloud: An interactive analysis and development platform for analyzing airborne imaging spectroscopy data, and a new collection of tools and services for data discovery, analysis, publication, and data-driven storytelling (Visualization, Exploration, and Data Analysis, VEDA).

Alexey N Shiklomanov↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Sundial-Atlas Precursor to the TIMED Mission: A Quick-Response Global Investigation into Coupled Lower Thermospheric, Ionospheric, and Mesospheric Physics

The SUNDIAL-ATLAS effort was a global-scale investigation which responded to the science priorities of the ITM Panel, the Integrated SPD Strategy Implementation Plan as a whole, and the need for potential cost-saving design criteria for the TIMED mission. The investigation focused on coupling processes in the ionospheric-thermospheric system, taking advantage of the timelines of the ATLAS-1 mission (March 1992), and the global-scale ground-based measurement and modeling activities of the SUNDIAL program. The collaborative SUNDIAL-ATLAS activity was the first opportunity for global measurements of the chemistry, kinetics, and electrodynamics which couple the E-, Fl-, and F2-regions into a single interactive system. As such, the program represented an important first step in studying global issues; and accordingly, was an important proof of concept experiment relevant to the strategic mission plans for the ITM community and the upcoming intermediate class satellite program called TIMED. To meet its projected goals, TIMED must perform a number of critical measurements and execute a number of correlations that were to be tried and tested for the first time in the SUNDIAL-ATLAS investigation. This was designed to include global correlations of thermospheric and ionospheric composition during quiet and disturbed conditions and the co-registration of global-scale ground-based measurements with along-track satellite diagnostics. The SUNDIAL component of the current investigation addressed this need by acquiring, reducing, and analyzing a multi-sensor database that complemented and extended that which was generated in the ATLAS mission (Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science). The SUNDIAL data defined the state and condition of the global-scale ionosphere in the altitude range from 100 km to the F2-peak. These data specified the peak heights and densities of the E-, Fl-, and F2-regions, along with the global distributions of intermediate, descending, and sequential layers which play a critical role in the dynamo region of the lower ionospheric-thermospheric domain. The data were collected by the SUNDIAL network of more than 50 ground-based stations utilizing ionosondes, radars, photometers, Fabry-Perot interferometers, and total electron content measurements. The data were acquired during a three-week period centered on the eight-day ATLAS-1 mission, which provided image and photometric sensing of the altitude distributions of the major and minor ions and neutrals in the ITM system. This report focuses on the scientific contributions of the SUNDIAL component of the overall investigation. Specific findings are described in seven papers (attached) published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Szuszczewicz, E. P.↗

Relocating microseismicity from downhole monitoring of the Decatur CCS site using a modified double-difference algorithm

SUMMARY The injection of CO2 at the Decatur carbon capture and storage site has generated significant microseismic activity, which occurs in distinct spatial clusters up to approximately 2.2 km from the primary injection well. Accurate and precise event locations are vital for the characterization of the microseismicity to help understand the reservoir response to the CO2 injection, whilst enabling the identification of minor faults and fractures below the resolution of conventional active seismic imaging. However, microseismic monitoring of fluid injection sites, such as Decatur, is often performed using a network of borehole sensors often from a single well. While these downhole sensors have excellent detection capabilities, their poor azimuthal coverage limits the ability to precisely determine event locations. We have developed a modified double-difference relocation algorithm suitable for both 1-D and 3-D velocity models, and which incorporates differential back azimuth observations to allow the benefits of the original double-difference algorithm to be applicable to a downhole microseismic monitoring setting. Applying the modified double-difference algorithm to the microseismicity at Decatur, we have successfully relocated 4293 events. The relocation included over 59 million observations for 757 285 event pairs, split across seven geographic regions. Despite the majority of observations being recorded in only two boreholes, with an almost identical azimuthal coverage, the results have shown to be reliable with significantly reduced residuals and low uncertainties associated with the final locations. We have analysed the residuals in terms of their association with each geographic region, data type, station and individual events, to fully appreciate their influence in the inversion and the fit of the data to the final set of event locations. For each region, the relocated seismicity has become less diffuse with improved clustering, and with newly visible linear features often orientated in a NE–SW direction. These results show the potential improvements that can be made to microseismic event locations recorded by a borehole network with a limited and variable azimuthal distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗

Adaptive Fault Current-Limiting Control of MMC for Protection of Multiterminal HVDC Systems

A crucial requirement of the protection system for multi-terminal high-voltage DC (MTDC) transmission is that it is capable of selectively isolating the faulty area from the healthy part of the network using DC circuit breakers (DCCBs), while ensuring continuous operation of converter stations in the healthy part of the network. But in the half-bridge modular multilevel converters (HB-MMCs) based MTDC system, since HB-MMCs do not have fault current absorption capability, when a DC fault occurs, the rising fault currents can quickly reach the blocking threshold within a few milliseconds and disrupt the operation of the MMCs in the healthy part. To facilitate fault-ride-through capability of MTDC system, large DC reactors are often considered in series with DCCBs to reduce the rate of rise of the fault current and prevent blocking the MMCs in the healthy part of the DC networks; however, large DC reactors prohibitively increase the cost of the system, introduce stability issues and can create post-fault oscillations. This paper presents an adaptive fault current-limiting control method for MMCs to avoid their blocking and enable the continuous operation of the healthy part of MTDC systems. The method contains two parts: The first part is based on circulating current feedforward control, which emulates virtual reactors in each arm of an MMC, and is immediately activated when the fault current starts to increase to reduce the rate of rise of the fault current. The second part temporarily bypasses all the submodules when the fault current exceeds a preset threshold, complementing the fault current-limiting effect of the first part. Neither part requires fault detection signals, and they are automatically activated during faults. Simulation case studies of a four-terminal bipolar MMC-based high-voltage DC system are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control methods.

active fault current limiting↗

Distributed Real-time Plume Monitoring for Deep Sea Mineral Extraction​

In the emerging industry of deep-sea mining for minerals and deposits (e.g. polymetallic nodules for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese), more data is required to understand the effects of sediment plume generation and predict the distribution of disturbed sediment. There are two main sources of plume generation, the first being at the active mining site where the “collector” directly removes the top layer of the sea floor. The other is the “midwater plume” consisting of unwanted sediment that was collected during extraction that is pumped back into the aphotic zone. The vast majority of plume generation is caused by the collector, causing detrimental and long-lasting impacts on seafloor ecosystems due to the lack of wave activity or strong currents at the sea floor. Therefore, it is crucial to invest in the infrastructure to support the study and constant monitoring over a large area of the sea floor where plume generation is present. Due to the limited number of usable channels and power requirements, current subsea wireless communications technologies are not well suited to instrumenting the large areas of the sea floor needed to monitor plume migration. The scope of this effort is to transition experimental demonstrations of high-bandwidth, full-duplex scalable underwater laser communications to the seafloor in an open ocean environment. Specifically tackling challenges associated with the dynamic nature of the subsea world, including but not limited to, deployment logistics, sustainability, and range. The goal is to enable the internet of underwater things for deep sea industries by broadening the capabilities of subsea communications. By using high-precision laser transmitters, many of the challenges current subsea optical systems face can be circumvented, such as power consumption, interference, and bandwidth limitations. This approach lends itself to wireless interlinking multi-node networks, in series or parallel, facilitating the implementation of a wide array of sensor types. This interlinking allows all the data gathered from the network to be processed through a single hardline uplink to the surface, lowering the complexity required for near real-time data processing. Additionally, the laser control systems produce metadata that can be used to help characterize the water column between the nodes. Combining data from various sensors such as turbidity, temperature, current velocity with metadata such as beam attenuation and deflection can produce a high-resolution model of sea floor conditions around an active mining zone. The resulting near real-time model can be used to optimize location and flow rate of the mining operation to minimize and quantify the environmental impact.

Mons, Ishan↗

Optimal Electric Grid Black Start Restoration Subject to Intentional Threats

Efficient restoration of the electric grid from significant disruptions – both natural and manmade – that lead to the grid entering a failed state is essential to maintaining resilience under a wide range of threats. Restoration follows a set of black start plans, allowing operators to select among these plans to meet the constraints imposed on the system by the disruption. Restoration objectives aim to restore power to a maximum number of customers in the shortest time. Current state-of-the-art for restoration modeling breaks the problem into multiple parts, assuming a known network state and full observability and control by grid operators. These assumptions are not guaranteed under some threats. This paper focuses on a novel integration of modeling and analysis capabilities to aid operators during restoration activities. A power flow-informed restoration framework, comprised of a restoration mixed-integer program informed by power flow models to identify restoration alternatives, interacts with a dynamic representation of the grid through a cognitive model of operator decision-making, to identify and prove an optimal restoration path. Application of this integrated approach is illustrated on exemplar systems. Validation of the restoration is performed for one of these exemplars using commercial solvers, and comparison is made between the steps and time involved in the commercial solver, and that required by the restoration optimization in and of itself, and by the operator model in acting on the restoration optimization output. Publications and proposals developed under this work, along with a path forward for additional expansion of the work, and summary of what was achieved, are also documented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Radar Observations from the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar in 2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies primarily on ground-based radar measurements to characterize the distribution of small debris, down to approximately 3 mm depending upon altitude and the sensor used, in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since the early 1990’s, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory (LL) has been collecting radar measurements for the NASA ODPO under agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) is the primary ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO and provides data on orbital debris down to an approximate size of 5.5 mm below 1000km altitude using the NASA size estimation model (SEM). Since orbital debris of this size are a significant risk to both human and robotic missions in LEO, the sensitivity of this radar makes it a high-value sensor. The NASA ODPO radar measurements are conducted on a continual basis for monitoring and enabling modeling of the orbital debris environment over time. HUSIR observations from 2019 are the most recent snapshot of the environment that has been measured and analyzed to date. In recent years, HUSIR measurements indicated relatively stable populations for the orbital debris objects that it is able to detect. In 2019, several interesting events happened on-orbit, including the start of large constellation deployments into LEO, as well as the Indian anti-satellite test with Microsat-R (International Designator 2019-006A, U.S. Strategic Command Space Surveillance Network catalog number 43947). Due to these events, coupled with a general increase in the number of missions and participants launching missions in recent years, continual monitoring is necessary to determine the effects of this increased activity on the orbital debris environment. This paper will explore the results of the 2019 HUSIR radar measurements, including above-average flux measurements at lower LEO altitudes and the evolution of the flux during the time of observations.

James Murray↗

Radar Observations from the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar in 2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies primarily on ground-based radar measurements to characterize the distribution of small debris, down to approximately 3 mm depending upon altitude and the sensor used, in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since the early 1990’s, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory (LL) has been collecting radar measurements for the NASA ODPO under agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) is the primary ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO and provides data on orbital debris down to an approximate size of 5.5 mm below 1000km altitude using the NASA size estimation model (SEM). Since orbital debris of this size are a significant risk to both human and robotic missions in LEO, the sensitivity of this radar makes it a high-value sensor. The NASA ODPO radar measurements are conducted on a continual basis for monitoring and enabling modeling of the orbital debris environment over time. HUSIR observations from 2019 are the most recent snapshot of the environment that has been measured and analyzed to date. In recent years, HUSIR measurements indicated relatively stable populations for the orbital debris objects that it is able to detect. In 2019, several interesting events happened on-orbit, including the start of large constellation deployments into LEO, as well as the Indian anti-satellite test with Microsat-R (International Designator 2019-006A, U.S. Strategic Command Space Surveillance Network catalog number 43947). Due to these events, coupled with a general increase in the number of missions and participants launching missions in recent years, continual monitoring is necessary to determine the effects of this increased activity on the orbital debris environment. This paper will explore the results of the 2019 HUSIR radar measurements, including above-average flux measurements at lower LEO altitudes and the evolution of the flux during the time of observations.

James Murray↗

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS) and Prairie Lake (PRLA) field sites are co-located in an agricultural area used primarily for cattle grazing, just a few miles east of the Woodworth and Prairie Pothole sites at the Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge. DCFS covers 7.8 km2 (3 square miles) of grazing land in Stutsman County, ND, between the tiny communities of Pingree and Woodworth. The population here is sparse, but the land has been transformed by agricultural activities over the last 150 years. The field site has been used only for grazing, but other land in the surrounding area has been converted to corn and soybean production. DCFS is located in an area known as the "Prairie Pothole Region," a band of tall and mixed prairie that stretches across parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota and the Canadian provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Historically, this area supported tall to mid-height prairie grasses, including blue gamma and green needlegrass. The land here is pocked by thousands of depressions left behind by glaciers 10,000 years ago, resulting in a series of small lakes and wetland areas known as prairie potholes. These potholes receive most of their water from spring snowmelt and are a primary source of groundwater recharge for the region. NEON data will help researchers monitor the effects of climate change on the Northern Plains ecosystem. Over the last 30 years, the hydrological cycle in the plains has changed dramatically, trending wetter overall and diverging from the historical ten-year cycles. Temperatures are also rising, leading to changes in plant phenology cycles and species distribution that could negatively impact migratory bird populations and other animal species.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗