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At least 721 records · Page 40

Influence of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption on the Stratospheric Circulation

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. Even though stratospheric winds climatologically tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We show how the absorption of radiation by sulfate aerosol is responsible for the spreading to the southern hemisphere through a middle stratospheric channel. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 general circulation model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem. Our simulations are in good agreement with SAGE-II and AVHRR data. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud, in agreement with the observations. At first, the volcanic cloud is transported from the latitude of the eruption to both hemispheres through a lower stratospheric pathway. Additionally, in the interactive simulations the absorption of long wave radiation from the volcanic sulfate induces a lofting of the cloud to the middle atmosphere and, at the same time, a divergent motion from the center of the cloud. Such motion spreads the volcanic cloud across the equator and to the tropics, where the background circulation carry it to higher latitudes.

Aquila, V.↗

Modeling of the Coupled Magnetospheric and Neutral Wind Dynamos

Over the past four years of funding, SRI, in collaboration with the University of Texas at Dallas, has been involved in assessing the influence of thermospheric neutral winds on the electric field and current systems at high latitudes. The initial direction of the project was to perform a set of numerical experiments concerning the contribution of the magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamo processes, under specific boundary conditions, to the polarization electric field and/or the field-aligned current distribution at high latitudes. To facilitate these numerical experiments we developed a numerical scheme that relied on using output from the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIGCM), expanding them in the form of spherical harmonics and solving the dynamo equations spectrally. Once initial calculations were completed, it was recognized that the neutral wind contribution could be significant but its actual contribution to the electric field or currents depended strongly on the generator properties of the magnetosphere. Solutions to this problem are not unique because of the unknown characteristics of the magnetospheric generator, therefore the focus was on two limiting cases. One limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a voltage generator delivering a fixed voltage to the high-latitude ionosphere and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the current system. The second limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a current generator and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the generation of polarization electric fields. This work was completed and presented at the l994 Fall AGU meeting. The direction of the project then shifted to applying the Poynting flux concept to the high-latitude ionosphere. This concept was more attractive as it evaluated the influence of neutral winds on the high-latitude electrodynamics without actually having to determine the generator characteristics of the magnetosphere. The influence of the neutral wind was then determined not by estimating how much electric potential or current density it provides, but by determining the contribution of the neutral wind to the net electromagnetic energy transferred between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The estimate of the net electromagnetic energy transfer and the role of the neutral winds proves to be a more fundamental quantity in studies of magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling also showed that by using electric and magnetic field measurements from the HILAT satellite, the Poynting flux could be a measurable quantity from polar-orbiting, low- altitude spacecraft. Through collaboration with Dr. Heelis and others at UTD and their expertise of the electric field measurements on the DE-B satellite, an extensive analysis was planned to determine the Poynting flux from the DE-B measurements in combination with a modeling effort to help interpret the observations taking into account the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere.

Thayer, Jeffrey P.↗

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Venus O2 visible and IR nightglow: Implications for lower thermosphere dynamics and chemistry

The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model for the Venus thermosphere is modified to examine two observed night airglow features, both of which serve as sensitive tracers of the thermospheric circulation. New O2 nightglow data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) star tracker (O2 Herzberg II at 400-800 nm) and ground-based telescopes (O2 IR at 1.27 microns) yield additional model constraints for estimating Venus winds over 100-130 km. Atomic oxygen, produced by dayside CO2 photolysis peaking near 110 km, and transported to the nightside by the global wind system, is partially destroyed through three-body recombination, yielding the O2 Herzberg II visible nightglow. This emission is very sensitive to horizontal winds at altitudes between 100 and 130 km. Other trace species catalytic reactions also contribute to the production of the very strong nightside infrared (1.27 microns) emission. This paper examines the dynamical and chemical implications of these new data using the Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) as an analysis tool. Three-dimensional calculations are presented for both solar maximum and solar medium conditions, corresponding to early PVO (1979-1981) and PVO entry (mid-1992) time periods. Very distinct periods are identified in which zonal winds are alternately weak and strong in the Venus lower thermosphere. VTGCM sensitivity studies are conducted to assess the impacts of potential changes in thermospheric zonal and day-to-night winds, and eddy diffusion on the corresponding nightglow intensities. It appears that cyclostrophic balance extends above 80 km periodically, owing to a reversal of the upper mesosphere latitudinal temperature gradient, and thereby producing strong zonal winds and correspondingly modified O2 nightglow distributions that are observed.

Bougher, S. W.↗

A comparison of the climate simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1:R15) with ECMWF analyses

The Community Climate Model (CCM) is a comprehensive three-dimensional global atmospheric model assembled at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Detailed comparisons are made between the climate simulated by a seasonal version of CCM, namely CCM1, at 12 level, R15 spectral resolution, and that revealed by ECMWF operational analyses over 1980-86 truncated to a similar resolution. A variety of circulation statistics are presented in order to reveal the spatial character and seasonality of CCM1 biases in temperature, winds, and wave flux quantities. The biases revealed for CCM1 are similar in many respects to those found in other climate models run at similar resolution. Results of this study are then presented, discussing temperature biases and thermodynamic balances, wind fields, zonal mean wave diagnostics, stationary waves, and local eddy statistics. The major findings are then summarized.

Randel, William J.↗

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Ion neutral coupling in the high latitude thermosphere, part 1

Measurements of the neutral wind in the polar F region from Dynamics Explorer-2 (DE-2) were used to illustrate asymmetries in the neutral circulation that are dependent on the sign of the B sub y component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Individual DE-2 orbits and averaged data sets from different Universal times are presented. The data are categorized according to the sign of the hourly averaged IMF B sub y component measured by ISEE-3 for the hour preceding the DE-2 measurement. The major features observed are: (1) an asymmetry in the polar cap neutral flow velocity with the region of most rapid antisunward flow shifting from the dawn side to the dusk side of the polar cap as B sub y changes from positive to negative; (2) a shift in magnetic local time of the region of entry of neutral gas into the polar cap from a location on the dawn side of the noon-midnight meridian for B sub y positive to one more biased towards the dusk side for B sub y negative; (3) an enhancement in the velocities associated with the dawn, anti-clockwise neutral vortex B suby y negative relative to those observed for B sub y positive. The B sub y neutral wind asymmetries can be explained by similar asymmetries, previously observed, in the polar ion convection pattern. They imply a direct causal relationship between solar wind/magnetosphere coupling and neutral thermospheric dynamics.

Killeen, T. L.↗

OGCM Simulations of Equatorial Pacific Current and Temperature to ERS-1, FSU and NMC Surface Winds and to Assimilation of Subsurface Temperature Data

The relative accuracies of three surface wind data products for the tropical Pacific Ocean during April 1992 to March 1994 were examined by analyzing temperature and current fields along the equator, which were simulated with an ocean general circulation model. Simulations were made with and without assimilation of surface and subsurface temperature data. Simulated currents were compared with observations at three sites (170oW, 140oW, 110oW) at the equator. Model-generated currents and temperatures indicated that the ERS-1 westward wind speeds were low compared to the FSU and NMC winds. With data assimilation, the agreement between simulated and observed currents was highest at 170oW and lowest at 110oW.

ERS-1 FSU↗

Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Winds for Regional Climate Studies

The retrieval of winds and humidity in the upper-troposphere has matured to the point where it may now be possible to better understand and diagnose regional climate variations from geostationary satellites than from conventional measurements or model analysis, especially in data sparse regions. In this poster paper, upper-tropospheric circulation features and moisture transport covering ENSO periods are presented and discussed. Precursor and other detectable interannual climate signals are analyzed and compared to model diagnosed features. Estimates of winds and humidity over data-rich regions (from conventional measurements) are used to show the robustness of the data and its value over regions which are currently poorly sampled.

Jedlovce, Gary J.↗

Wind and Pressure Fields Near Tropical Cyclone Oliver Derived from Scatterometer Observations

The results of this study demonstrate that the surface wind velocity and pressure fields derived from spaceborne scatterometers are useful in monitoring the location and intensity of tropical cyclones. Satellite-borne microwave scatterometers can penetrate the cloudy core regions of tropical cyclones to resolve the circulation in detail over data sparse regions. The location of the cyclone observed by the ERS-1 (First European Remote Sensing Satellite) scatterometer is very close to that revealed in Geostationary Meteorological Satellite images. The surface winds provided by the ERS-1 scatterometer are used here with a modified two-layer planetary boundary layer model which includes effects of curvature, stability, and secondary flow to derive surface pressures near tropical cyclone Oliver. The curvature effect is found to be more significant than stability and secondary flow, which are crucial in deriving accurate surface pressure fields in midlatitudes.

Hsu, Carol S.↗

Water Vapor Winds and Their Application to Climate Change Studies

The retrieval of satellite-derived winds and moisture from geostationary water vapor imagery has matured to the point where it may be applied to better understanding longer term climate changes that were previously not possible using conventional measurements or model analysis in data-sparse regions. In this paper, upper-tropospheric circulation features and moisture transport covering ENSO periods are presented and discussed. Precursors and other detectable interannual climate change signals are analyzed and compared to model diagnosed features. Estimates of winds and humidity over data-rich regions are used to show the robustness of the data and its value over regions that have previously eluded measurement.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

The Dynamical Role of the Chesapeake Bay on the Local Ozone Pollution Using Mesoscale Modeling—A Case Study

This study investigated the dynamic influence of the Chesapeake Bay (CB) on local ozone (O3) concentration and distribution using a weather forecasting model. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF–Chem) was employed to simulate O3 production and transportation near the CB. Baseline (water) as well as sensitivity (nowater) model experiments of bay circulation were carried out with and without bay water by changing the water surface from water to land (loam). First, the model performance simulating O3 was evaluated using the baseline experiment results and AirNow surface wind and O3 observations. The results showed that the model overestimates surface O3 by up to 20–30%. Further, the comparisons of the baseline and sensitivity experiments revealed higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to the resulting bay breeze circulation. These increases, after considering model overestimation, represent a mean bay dynamics circulation-induced contribution of up to 10% at night and 5% during the day. Furthermore, the boundary layer over northern CB, where it is at its narrowest width, was higher (by 1.2 km on average) during daytime due to higher surface temperatures observed. The boundary layer depth difference between the northern, central, and southern regions of the bay leads to a differential in the role of bay circulation dynamics in the observed O3 increase. The relatively wider swath of water surface over southern CB resulted in a lower boundary layer depth and stronger breeze circulation and this circulation contributed to O3 concentrations. Moreover, since the case selected has a minimal bay breeze circulation, the associated surface ozone enhancements represent what is expected at least at a minimum.

Chesapeak Bay↗

The thermohaline driving mechanism of oceanic jet streams

In a series of publications dealing with the circulation of the North Atlantic, Worthington (1959, 1972, 1976, 1977) has challenged the widely accepted notion that the Gulf Stream system is entirely wind-driven. He was able to demonstrate that the Gulf Stream over its most intense portion south of New England generally intensifies in winter. Worthington postulates that strong surface cooling in winter is the cause of Gulf Stream intensification, i.e., he believes that a thermal mechanism is partially responsible for driving the Gulf Stream. Worthington speaks of 'anticyclogenesis' and of a 'fresh charge of energy' which the Gulf Stream receives at the end of each (severe) winter. A pattern of thermoline circulation arising in the upper layers of the Stream could play a role similar to that of the Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, which derives the subtropical jet stream. The present investigation is concerned with the examination of such a possibility, taking into account the employment of a two-layer model.

Csanady, G. T.↗

A Closed Bay-Breeze Circulation and Its Lifecycle From TRACER With a New Orienteering Tape Recorder Diagram

A closed bay-breeze circulation (BBC) followed by a gulf-breeze front (GBF) was observed on 10 September 2022 during the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) TRACER campaign. Using high-resolution X-band Scanning Cloud Radar (XSACR) and a newly developed orienteering tape recorder diagram, the study analyzed radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity to identify anomalies and track the evolution of these circulations. The BBC, a mesoscale system approximately 30-km long, 30-km wide, and 2-km deep, formed from enhanced horizontal convective rolls along the Galveston Bay coast, progressing northwestward under a 6 m s−1 onshore flow anomaly and reaching 1.5 km depth with return flow aloft. The inland penetration speed was 2 m s−1, driven by an observed 6-9 K land-water temperature contrast. The GBF, coupled to the BBC, intensified with additional southerly flow, penetrating further inland after the BBC collapsed. Passing over the TRACER field site, both fronts significantly impacted boundary layer thermodynamics, dynamics, and aerosol concentration. The BBC event exhibited four lifecycle stages-formation, development, maturation, and dissipation-driven by solar heating, wind field rotation, and interactions with convective eddies and the GBF. This study provides insights into the inland evolution of coastal breeze circulations and their interactions with environmental processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zonal winds in the middle atmosphere of Venus from Pioneer Venus radio occultation data

The present investigation is concerned with the derivation of zonal winds for the middle atmosphere (40-80 km) of Venus, using Pioneer Venus (PV) radio occultation data. The considered altitude range is of particular interest because the atmospheric circulation of Venus is uncertain above the cloud tops (65-70 km). The Pioneer Venus orbiter began circling the planet every 24 hours on December 4, 1978. Four seasons of occultation data have now been collected. It is found that the assumption of cyclostrophic balance, in conjunction with radio occultation derived temperature data, yields a zonal wind field for most of the middle atmosphere of Venus. An intense midlatitude jet at and above the cloud tops is the most notable feature of the winds.

Newman, M.↗

Big-Data-Driven Geo-Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis between Precursor Pollen and Influenza and its Implication to Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Although studies of many respiratory viruses and pollens are often framed by both seasonal and health related perspectives, pollen has yet to be extensively examined as an important covariate to seasonal respiratory viruses (SRVs) in any context, including a causal one. This study contributes to those goals through an investigation of SRVs and pollen counts at selected regions across the Western Hemisphere. Two complementary decadal-scaled geospatial profiles were developed. One laterally spanned the US and was anchored by detailed pollen information for Albuquerque, New Mexico. The other straddled the equator to include Fortaleza, Brazil. We found that the geospatial and climatological patterns of pollen advancement and decline across the US every year presented a statistically significant correlation to the subsequent emergence and decline of SRVs. Other significant covariates included winds, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture. Our study indicates that areas of the US with lower geostrophic wind baselines are typically areas of persistently higher and earlier influenza like illness (ILI) cases. In addition to that continental- scaled contrast, many sites indicated seasonal highs of geostrophic winds and ILI which were closely aligned. These observations suggest extensive scale-dependent connectivity of viruses to geostrophic circulation. Pollen emergence and its own scale-dependent circulation may contribute to the geospatial and seasonal patterns of ILI. We explore some uncertainties associated with this investigation, and consider the possibility that in a temperate climate, following a Spring pollen emergence, a resulting increase in pollen triggered human Immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies may suppress ILIs for several months.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗