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At least 721 records · Page 40

Rationale for reconsidering current regulations restricting use of hybrids in orange juice

Huanglongbing (HLB) is a disease that has devastated the Florida citrus industry, threatens the entire U.S. citrus industry, and globally is rapidly spreading. Florida’s citrus production is 90% sweet orange, which is quite sensitive to HLB. The heavy reliance on sweet orange for Florida citrus production makes the industry especially vulnerable to diseases that are damaging to this type of citrus. Furthermore, 90% of Florida oranges are used in producing orange juice that is defined by a federal regulation known as the “orange juice standard”, specifying that at least 90% of “orange juice” must be derived from Citrus sinensis. Genomic analyses definitively reveal that sweet orange is not a true species, but just one of many introgression hybrids of C. reticulata and C. maxima, with phenotypic diversity resulting from accumulated mutations in this single hybrid, the “sweet orange”. No other fruit industry is limited by law to such a narrow genetic base. Fortunately, there are new citrus hybrids displaying reduced sensitivity to HLB, and in some cases they produce juice, alone or in blends, that consumers would recognize as “orange juice”. Reconsidering current regulations on orange juice standards may permit use of such hybrids in “orange juice”, providing greater latitude for commercialization of these hybrids, leading to higher-quality orange juice and a more sustainable Florida orange juice industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated dryland expansion regulates future variability in dryland gross primary production

Drylands cover 41% of the Earth’s land surface and are the largest source of interannual variability in the global carbon sink. While drylands are projected to experience an accelerated expansion over the next century, the implications of this expansion and degradation for variability in their gross primary production (GPP) remain elusive. Here we show that total dryland GPP by 2100 will increase by 12 ± 3% relative to the 2010–2014 baseline. Because drylands will largely expand into formerly more productive ecosystems, this increase in dryland GPP may not increase total global GPP. Further, GPP per unit dryland area will decrease as degradation of historical drylands outpaces the higher GPP of expanded drylands. Dryland expansion and climate-induced conversions among sub-humid, semi-arid, arid, and hyper-arid subtypes will lead to substantial changes in regional and subtype contributions to global dryland GPP variability. Our results highlight the vulnerability of dryland subtypes to more frequent and severe climate extremes and suggest that strong regional variations will require different mitigation strategies in different regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the drivers and predictability of seasonal changes in African fire

Africa contains some of the most vulnerable ecosystems to fires. Successful seasonal prediction of fire activity over these fire-prone regions remains a challenge and relies heavily on in-depth understanding of various driving mechanisms underlying fire evolution. Here, we assess the seasonal environmental drivers and predictability of African fire using the analytical framework of Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (SGEFA) and machine learning techniques (MLTs). The impacts of sea-surface temperature, soil moisture, and leaf area index are quantified and found to dominate the fire seasonal variability by regulating regional burning condition and fuel supply. Compared with previously-identified atmospheric and socioeconomic predictors, these slowly evolving oceanic and terrestrial predictors are further identified to determine the seasonal predictability of fire activity in Africa. Our combined SGEFA-MLT approach achieves skillful prediction of African fire one month in advance and can be generalized to provide seasonal estimates of regional and global fire risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Foundry-compatible high-resolution patterning of vertically phase-separated semiconducting films for ultraflexible organic electronics

Solution processability of polymer semiconductors becomes an unfavorable factor during the fabrication of pixelated films since the underlying layer is vulnerable to subsequent solvent exposure. A foundry-compatible patterning process must meet requirements including high-throughput and high-resolution patternability, broad generality, ambient processability, environmentally benign solvents, and, minimal device performance degradation. However, known methodologies can only meet very few of these requirements. Here, a facile photolithographic approach is demonstrated for foundry-compatible high-resolution patterning of known p- and n-type semiconducting polymers. This process involves crosslinking a vertically phase-separated blend of the semiconducting polymer and a UV photocurable additive, and enables ambient processable photopatterning at resolutions as high as 0.5 μm in only three steps with environmentally benign solvents. The patterned semiconducting films can be integrated into thin-film transistors having excellent transport characteristics, low off-currents, and high thermal (up to 175 °C) and chemical (24 h immersion in chloroform) stability. Moreover, these patterned organic structures can also be integrated on 1.5 μm-thick parylene substrates to yield highly flexible (1 mm radius) and mechanically robust (5,000 bending cycles) thin-film transistors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue

Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ 47 -T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ 47 -T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey

Climate change is already increasing the severity of extreme weather events such as with rainfall during hurricanes. But little research to date investigates if, and to what extent, there are social inequalities in climate change-attributed extreme weather event impacts. Here, we use climate change attribution science paired with hydrological flood models to estimate climate change-attributed flood depths and damages during Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. Using detailed land-parcel and census tract socio-economic data, we then describe the socio-spatial characteristics associated with these climate change-induced impacts. We show that 30 to 50% of the flooded properties would not have flooded without climate change. Climate change-attributed impacts were particularly felt in Latina/x/o neighborhoods, and especially so in Latina/x/o neighborhoods that were low-income and among those located outside of FEMA’s 100-year floodplain. Our focus is thus on climate justice challenges that not only concern future climate change-induced risks, but are already affecting vulnerable populations disproportionately now.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO 2

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades. We observe a robust increase in precipitation sensitivity (0.624% yr –1 ) for drylands, and a decrease (–0.618% yr –1 ) for wet regions. Using model simulations, we show that the contrasting trends between dry and wet regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ). eCO 2 universally decreases the precipitation sensitivity by reducing leaf-level transpiration, particularly in wet regions. However, in drylands, this leaf-level transpiration reduction is overridden at the canopy scale by a large proportional increase in leaf area. The increased sensitivity for global drylands implies a potential decrease in ecosystem stability and greater impacts of droughts in these vulnerable ecosystems under continued global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010–2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cross-protective antibodies against common endemic respiratory viruses

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), and human parainfluenza virus types one (HPIV1) and three (HPIV3) can cause severe disease and death in immunocompromised patients, the elderly, and those with underlying lung disease. A protective monoclonal antibody exists for RSV, but clinical use is limited to high-risk infant populations. Hence, therapeutic options for these viruses in vulnerable patient populations are currently limited. Here, we present the discovery, in vitro characterization, and in vivo efficacy testing of two cross-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, one targeting both HPIV3 and HPIV1 and the other targeting both RSV and HMPV. The 3 × 1 antibody is capable of targeting multiple parainfluenza viruses; the MxR antibody shares features with other previously reported monoclonal antibodies that are capable of neutralizing both RSV and HMPV. We obtained structures using cryo-electron microscopy of these antibodies in complex with their antigens at 3.62 Å resolution for 3 × 1 bound to HPIV3 and at 2.24 Å for MxR bound to RSV, providing a structural basis for in vitro binding and neutralization. Together, a cocktail of 3 × 1 and MxR could have clinical utility in providing broad protection against four of the respiratory viruses that cause significant morbidity and mortality in at-risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Antibody-directed evolution reveals a mechanism for enhanced neutralization at the HIV-1 fusion peptide site

The HIV-1 fusion peptide (FP) represents a promising vaccine target, but global FP sequence diversity among circulating strains has limited anti-FP antibodies to ~60% neutralization breadth. Here we evolve the FP-targeting antibody VRC34.01 in vitro to enhance FP-neutralization using site saturation mutagenesis and yeast display. Successive rounds of directed evolution by iterative selection of antibodies for binding to resistant HIV-1 strains establish a variant, VRC34.01_mm28, as a best-in-class antibody with 10-fold enhanced potency compared to the template antibody and ~80% breadth on a cross-clade 208-strain neutralization panel. Structural analyses demonstrate that the improved paratope expands the FP binding groove to accommodate diverse FP sequences of different lengths while also recognizing the HIV-1 Env backbone. These data reveal critical antibody features for enhanced neutralization breadth and potency against the FP site of vulnerability and accelerate clinical development of broad HIV-1 FP-targeting vaccines and therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Embedding security into ferroelectric FET array via in situ memory operation

Non-volatile memories (NVMs) have the potential to reshape next-generation memory systems because of their promising properties of near-zero leakage power consumption, high density and non-volatility. However, NVMs also face critical security threats that exploit the non-volatile property. Compared to volatile memory, the capability of retaining data even after power down makes NVM more vulnerable. Existing solutions to address the security issues of NVMs are mainly based on Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), which incurs significant performance and power overhead. In this paper, we propose a lightweight memory encryption/decryption scheme by exploiting in-situ memory operations with negligible overhead. To validate the feasibility of the encryption/decryption scheme, device-level and array-level experiments are performed using ferroelectric field effect transistor (FeFET) as an example NVM without loss of generality. Besides, a comprehensive evaluation is performed on a 128 × 128 FeFET AND-type memory array in terms of area, latency, power and throughput. Compared with the AES-based scheme, our scheme shows ~22.6×/~14.1× increase in encryption/decryption throughput with negligible power penalty. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of our scheme over the AES-based scheme when deploying different neural network workloads. Our scheme yields significant latency reduction by 90% on average for encryption and decryption processes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Down-selection of biomolecules to assemble “reverse micelle” with perovskites

Abstract Biological molecule-semiconductor interfacing has triggered numerous opportunities in applied physics such as bio-assisted data storage and computation, brain-computer interface, and advanced distributed bio-sensing. The introduction of electronics into biological embodiment is being quickly developed as it has great potential in providing adaptivity and improving functionality. Reciprocally, introducing biomaterials into semiconductors to manifest bio-mimetic functionality is impactful in triggering new enhanced mechanisms. In this study, we utilize the vulnerable perovskite semiconductors as a platform to understand if certain types of biomolecules can regulate the lattice and endow a unique mechanism for stabilizing the metastable perovskite lattice. Three tiers of biomolecules have been systematically tested and the results reveal a fundamental mechanism for the formation of a “reverse-micelle” structure. Systematic exploration of a large set of biomolecules led to the discovery of guiding principle for down-selection of biomolecules which extends the classic emulsion theory to this hybrid systems. Results demonstrate that by introducing biomaterials into semiconductors, natural phenomena typically observed in biological systems can also be incorporated into semiconducting crystals, providing a new perspective to engineer existing synthetic materials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Experimental warming and drying increase older carbon contributions to soil respiration in lowland tropical forests

Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink, but climate change threatens to alter the carbon balance of these ecosystems. We show that warming and drying of tropical forest soils may increase soil carbon vulnerability, by increasing degradation of older carbon. In situ whole-profile heating by 4 °C and 50% throughfall exclusion each increased the average radiocarbon age of soil CO 2 efflux by ~2–3 years, but the mechanisms underlying this shift differed. Warming accelerated decomposition of older carbon as increased CO 2 emissions depleted newer carbon. Drying suppressed decomposition of newer carbon inputs and decreased soil CO 2 emissions, thereby increasing contributions of older carbon to CO 2 efflux. These findings imply that both warming and drying, by accelerating the loss of older soil carbon or reducing the incorporation of fresh carbon inputs, will exacerbate soil carbon losses and negatively impact carbon storage in tropical forests under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗