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At least 721 records · Page 40

Satellite NO 2 Trends and Hotspots Over Offshore Oil and Gas Operations in the Gulf of Mexico

The Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is populated with numerous oil and natural gas (ONG) platforms which produce NO x (NO x = NO + NO 2 ), a major component of air pollution. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is mandated to ensure that the air quality of coastal states is not degraded by these emissions. As part of a NASA-BOEM collaboration, we conducted a satellite data-based analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) patterns and trends in the GOM. Data from the OMI and TROPOMI sensors were used to obtain 18+ year records of tropospheric column (TrC) NO 2 in three GOM regions: (a) Houston urban area, (b) near shore area off the Louisiana coast, and a (c) deepwater area off the Louisiana coast. The 2004–2022 time series show a decreasing trend for the urban (−0.027 DU/decade) and near shore (−0.0022 DU/decade) areas, and an increasing trend (0.0019 DU/decade) for the deepwater area. MERRA-2 wind and TROPOMI NO 2 data were used to reveal several NO2 hotspots (up to 25% above background values) under calm wind conditions near individual platforms. The NO 2 signals from these deepwater platforms and the high density of shallow water platforms closer to shore were confirmed by TrC NO 2 anomalies of up to 10%, taking into account the monthly TrC NO 2 climatology over the GOM. The results presented in this study establish a baseline for future estimates of emissions from the ONG hotspots and provide a methodology for analyzing NO 2 measurements from the new geostationary TEMPO instrument.

NO2↗

Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Accelerated Rate of Sea Ice Decline in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

Abstract Arctic sea ice loss in response to a warming climate is assessed in 42 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Sea ice observations show a significant acceleration in the rate of decline commencing near the turn of the twenty-first century. It is our assertion that state-of-the-art climate models should qualitatively reflect this accelerated trend within the limitations of internal variability and observational uncertainty. Our analysis shows that individual CMIP6 simulations of sea ice depict a wide range of model spread on biases and anomaly trends both across models and among their ensemble members. While the CMIP6 multimodel mean captures the observed sea ice area (SIA) decline relatively well, an individual model’s ability to represent the acceleration in sea ice decline remains a challenge. Seventeen (40%) out of 42 CMIP6 models and 37 (13%) out of the total 286 ensemble members reasonably capture the observed trends and acceleration in SIA decline. In addition, a larger ensemble size appears to increase the odds for a model to include at least one ensemble member skillfully representing the accelerated SIA trends. Simulations of sea ice volume (SIV) show much larger spread and uncertainty than SIA; however, due to limited availability of sea ice thickness data, these are not as well constrained by observations. Finally, we find that models with more ocean heat transport simulate larger sea ice declines, which suggests an emergent constraint in CMIP6 ensembles. This relationship points to the need for better understanding and modeling of ice–ocean interactions, especially with respect to frazil ice growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time–series Analysis of Volume Change at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada, USA using Geodetic Data from 2003 – 2018

Brady Hot Springs geothermal field has exhibited subsidence, as measured by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Previous studies have examined both the temporal evolution of the deformation from 2004 through 2016 and the spatial extent of the deformation, directly relating the observed subsidence to volumetric changes below the surface. We extend the modeling at Brady to analyze a data set of interferometric pairs spanning from the end of 2003 through 2018. We examine spatial and temporal trends in the observed deformation by time–series analysis of each of the 1656 cubic voxels in a parameterized elastic dislocation model to identify areas where the subsurface volume changes as a function of time. Joint time–series analysis of Global Positioning System and InSAR pairs confirm significant changes in rates of volume change during time intervals when well operations were varied. Here, the rate of subsidence increases with increased injection, consistent with the identification of thermal contraction of the rock matrix as the dominant driving mechanism. Conversely, the modeled volume increases when pumping ceases, suggesting thermal expansion of the rock matrix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi-decade Measurements of the Long-Term Trends of Atmospheric Species by High-Spectral-Resolution Infrared Solar Absorption Spectroscopy

Solar absorption spectra were recorded for the first time in 5 years with the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer at the US National solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in southern Arizona, USA (31.91 N latitude, 111.61 W longitude, 2.09 km altitude). The solar absorption spectra cover 750-1300 and 1850-5000 cm(sup -1) and were recorded on 20 days during March-June 2009. The measurements mark the continuation of a long-term record of atmospheric chemical composition measurements that have been used to quantify seasonal cycles and long-term trends of both tropospheric and stratospheric species from observations that began i 1977. Fits to the measured spectra have been performed, and they indicate the spectra obtained since return to operational status are nearly free of channeling and the instrument line shape function is well reproduced taking into account the measurement parameters. We report updated time series measurements of total columns for six atmospheric species and their analysis for seasonal cycles and long-term trends. An sn example, the time series fit shows a decrease in the annual increase rate i Montreal-Protocol-regulated chlorofluorocarbon CCL2F2 from 1.51 plus or minus 0.38% yr(sup -1) at the beginning of the time span to -1.54 plus or minus 1.28 yr(sup -1) at the end of the time span, 1 sigma, and hence provides evidence for the impact of those regulations on the trend.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

Microbial Diversity Aboard Spacecraft: Evaluation of the International Space Station

An evaluation of the microbial flora from air, water, and surface samples provided a baseline of microbial diversity onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to gain insight into bacterial and fungal contamination during the initial stages of construction and habitation. Using 16S genetic sequencing and rep-PeR, 63 bacterial strains were isolated for identification and fingerprinted for microbial tracking. The use of these molecular tools allowed for the identification of bacteria not previously identified using automated biochemical analysis and provided a clear indication of the source of several ISS contaminants. Fungal and bacterial data acquired during monitoring do not suggest there is a current microbial hazard to the spacecraft, nor does any trend indicate a potential health risk. Previous spacecraft environmental analysis indicated that microbial contamination will increase with time and require continued surveillance.

Castro, Victoria A.↗

A Modular Framework for Integrating and Visualizing Telemetry for Mars 2020 Rover Mechanism Operations

The analysis of mechanism telemetry requires a wide variety of tools to quickly and effectively assess spacecraft state, capture long-term trends in system performance, and identify and track anomalous events. Such analysis often requires spacecraft telemetry to first be transformed into derived fields and aggregated statistics before operators can begin their analysis. In past missions, aspects of this process have been automated, but operators were expected to use their own tools and procedures to understand and visualize the data, which led to redundant and inconsistent tools and processes. The Mech Data Tools Python library (MDT) was developed to provide a flexible, unified tool set for operators to extract and analyze mechanism telemetry over the life of the Mars 2020 surface mission. MDT consists of a set of configurable components that implement standard interfaces for ingesting input and producing output. Components can be chained together to form a data processing pipeline. Data are ingested from several sources within the greater Mars 2020 cloud infrastructure and stored in pandas DataFrames, which allows users to leverage the data manipulation capabilities present within the widely-used pandas library. Visualization capabilities are provided through the Plotly library, which generates interactive plots for users to interpret. Following the beginning of Mars 2020 surface operations, usage of MDT has spread to all mechanism-focused subsystems and has demonstrated great utility in analyzing early surface activities. This paper describes MDT’s evolution from heritage mechanism telemetry tools, the critical architecture decisions and challenges faced over MDT’s two years of development, and current applications of MDT in support of mechanism operations.

Wolsieffer, Ben↗

Effects of selected trajectory parameters on weight trends in the shuttle thermal protection system

An empirical heating model, thermal protection system unit weight correlation, and trajectory analysis were used to develop a computation procedure for studying the sensitivity of thermal protection system weights to variations in pertinent trajectory parameters. The analytical techniques used in developing this computer program are described. Application of the analysis to a Space Shuttle Orbiter configuration was performed to demonstrate gross thermal protection system weight trends with selected entry trajectory parameters.

Curry, D. M.↗

Spatial and Temporal Dust Source Variability in Northern China Identified Using Advanced Remote Sensing Analysis

The aim of this research is to provide a detailed characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends in the regional and local dust source areas within the desert of the Alashan Prefecture (Inner Mongolia, China). This problem was approached through multi-scale remote sensing analysis of vegetation changes. The primary requirements for this regional analysis are high spatial and spectral resolution data, accurate spectral calibration and good temporal resolution with a suitable temporal baseline. Landsat analysis and field validation along with the low spatial resolution classifications from MODIS and AVHRR are combined to provide a reliable characterization of the different potential dust-producing sources. The representation of intra-annual and inter-annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend to assess land cover discrimination for mapping potential dust source using MODIS and AVHRR at larger scale is enhanced by Landsat Spectral Mixing Analysis (SMA). The combined methodology is to determine the extent to which Landsat can distinguish important soils types in order to better understand how soil reflectance behaves at seasonal and inter-annual timescales. As a final result mapping soil surface properties using SMA is representative of responses of different land and soil cover previously identified by NDVI trend. The results could be used in dust emission models even if they are not reflecting aggregate formation, soil stability or particle coatings showing to be critical for accurately represent dust source over different regional and local emitting areas.

spectral mixing analysis↗

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

stratosphere↗

Analysis of human invasive cytotrophoblasts demonstrates mosaic aneuploidy

A total of 24 chromosome-specific fluorescence in situ hybridization probes for interphase nucleus analysis were developed to determine the chromosomal content of individual human invasive cytotrophoblasts derived from in vitro cultured assays. At least 75% of invasive cytotrophoblasts were hyperdiploid and the total number of chromosomes ranged from 47 to 61. The results also demonstrated that these hyperdiploid invasive cytotrophoblasts showed significant heterogeneity. The most copy number gains were observed for chromosomes 13, 14, 15, 19, 21, and 22 with average copy number greater than 2.3. A parallel study using primary invasive cytotrophoblasts also showed a similar trend of copy number changes. Conclusively, 24-chromosome analysis of human non-proliferating cytotrophoblasts (interphase nuclei) was achieved. Hyperdiploidy and chromosomal heterogeneity without endoduplication in invasive cytotrophoblasts may suggest a selective advantage for invasion and short lifespan during normal placental development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A meta-evaluation of the quality of reporting and execution in ecological meta-analyses

Quantitatively summarizing results from a collection of primary studies with meta-analysis can help answer ecological questions and identify knowledge gaps. The accuracy of the answers depends on the quality of the meta-analysis. We reviewed the literature assessing the quality of ecological meta-analyses to evaluate current practices and highlight areas that need improvement. From each of the 18 review papers that evaluated the quality of meta-analyses, we calculated the percentage of meta-analyses that met criteria related to specific steps taken in the meta-analysis process (i.e., execution) and the clarity with which those steps were articulated (i.e., reporting). We also re-evaluated all the meta-analyses available from Pappalardo et al. to extract new information on ten additional criteria and to assess how the meta-analyses recognized and addressed non-independence. In general, we observed better performance for criteria related to reporting than for criteria related to execution; however, there was a wide variation among criteria and meta-analyses. Meta-analyses had low compliance with regard to correcting for phylogenetic non-independence, exploring temporal trends in effect sizes, and conducting a multifactorial analysis of moderators (i.e., explanatory variables). In addition, although most meta-analyses included multiple effect sizes per study, only 66% acknowledged some type of non-independence. The types of non-independence reported were most often related to the design of the original experiment (e.g., the use of a shared control) than to other sources (e.g., phylogeny). We suggest that providing specific training and encouraging authors to follow the PRISMA EcoEvo checklist recently developed by O’Dea et al. can improve the quality of ecological meta-analyses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Technoeconomic Analysis (TEA)

Techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the DuraMAT Consortium includes the following areas: linking solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends to reliability implications; providing a framework to calculate technology costs, yielding insights useful for research decision-making, proposals, technology selection, and publications; and examining technology tradeoffs considering lifecycle project economics. This poster highlights results from the first and second iterations of the DuraMAT Technology Scouting reports as well as the updated Simplified PV Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Calculator.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Improved Assessment of Recent Trends in NOx and VOC Emissions and Ozone Production Sensitivity Regimes Using Satellite Data

This presentation highlights results from a NASA Aura Science Team and Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) project which study the capability to observe and model trends in ozone (O3) production regimes using spaceborne sensors. Ultraviolet– visible (UV–Vis) tropospheric column satellite retrievals of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound [VOC] reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of O3 production to emissions of NOx and VOCs. There are challenges that come from using satellite-derived ratios of HCHO and NO2 (FNR) to study O3 production sensitivity with the largest uncertainties associated with specific spaceborne sensor’s retrieval biases and errors. This study quantifies the differences and improvements in satellite retrievals of O3 production sensitivity regimes using FNRs when moving from legacy polar orbiting satellites such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP platform to newer, higher spatiotemporal resolution satellite sensors TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and eventually the recently launched NASA geostationary sensor Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO). Furthermore, we investigate how using retrievals of NO2 and HCHO from these different satellites to constrain model predictions impacts the ability to accurately simulate O3 chemistry including chemical production regimes. To this end, we have conducted inverse model simulations, using the WRF-CMAQ-DDM data assimilation system at 12 km × 12 km, to constrain emissions of NOx and VOCs over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when assimilating OMI and TROPOMI retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. Two advantages of this are that we a) account for each satellite’s errors/biases in the emission estimation and b) update the prior profile to ensure that only radiance information is used for optimizing the emissions. This presentation will demonstrate: a) the varying accuracy of different satellite retrieved FNRs and ability to capture known sub-annual emission trends (e.g., seasonal, weekend/weekday) and emission anomalies during the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020, b) the differences and improvements in top-down emission estimates of NOx and VOCs when constrained by newer satellite sensors compared to legacy systems, and c) multi-sensor optimized emission estimates of summer-time NOx and VOCs between 2019-2021.

Data↗

Statistics on magnetic properties of Co compounds: A database-driven method for discovering Co-based ferromagnets

The search for new ferromagnetic compounds is often targeted at known structure families, particularly those containing iron, cobalt, and manganese. Here, we propose a method to expand this search to lesser-known structure types, using a database of experimental Curie and Néel temperatures. This study, in particular, illustrates the case of compounds containing the element cobalt, and we demonstrate how the use of such a database can lead to the discovery of ferromagnetic materials that had previously been overlooked. We report statistics from a literature survey of the magnetic properties of Co-based compounds with more than 33 at. % Co. We classify more than 13 000 compounds by structure type, cobalt content, and magnetic ground state. From these data, compounds TaCo 2 Ga, La 6 Co 13 Bi, and Nd 2 Co 3 were identified as potential ferromagnets, and we confirm their ferromagnetic ordering theoretically via first-principles calculations and experimentally via synthesis and characterization measurements. In addition, the analysis is focused on the collection of data trends and discovery of ferromagnetic materials with easy-axis magnetic anisotropy. Both known ferromagnetic materials with unknown magnetic anisotropy, and unstudied compounds were considered. From the subset of known ferromagnets with unknown anisotropy, the compound Co 2 Mg was synthesized, characterized, and determined to have easy-axis magnetic anisotropy at room temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time‐Series Analysis: A Cautionary Tale

Time-series analysis has often been a useful tool in atmospheric science for deriving long-term trends in various atmospherically important parameters (e.g., temperature or the concentration of trace gas species). In particular, time-series analysis has been repeatedly applied to satellite datasets in order to derive the long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, which is a critical atmospheric constituent. However, many of the potential pitfalls relating to the non-uniform sampling of the datasets were often ignored and the results presented by the scientific community have been unknowingly biased. A newly developed and more robust application of this technique is applied to the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 7.0 ozone dataset and the previous biases and newly derived trends are presented.

Damadeo, Robert↗

Thermodynamic Trends for Reduction of CO by Molecular Complexes

Selective reduction of CO 2 into fuels and chemical feedstocks is highly desirable to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Most molecular catalysts afford 2e – reduction products, such as CO or HCO 2 – , as opposed to more reduced products. Here we present an analysis of the thermodynamic limitations for reduction of the CO ligand in the form of a series of isostructural group 6 carbonyl complexes, Cp*M(CO) 3 (P(OMe) 3 ) + (M = Cr, Mo, and W). Additionally, the free energy for stepwise transfer of a hydride (H – ) and a proton (H + ) to the CO ligand, resulting in a hydroxycarbene (CHOH) complex, was measured by equilibration with H – /H + donors and acceptors with known hydricity or acidity. Together, these two reaction steps are equivalent to a net addition of H 2 across the CO ligand. A large and unfavorable free energy for H 2 addition (Δ G ° H2 ) was measured for all three complexes and decreases in the order Cr > Mo > W. The trend for these complexes is opposite to the trend previously reported for group 7 carbonyl complexes, for which Δ G ° H2 decreases moving up the group, Re > Mn. Computational analysis indicates the trends can be described in terms of electrostatic effects, where a low Δ G ° H2 is obtained in complexes that balance the atomic charges of the M–C≡O fragment of the complex. These findings can be used to design metal carbonyl complexes with a more energetically accessible H 2 addition, which will facilitate the development of molecular catalysts for reduction of CO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Chang, C.-Y.↗