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DOE OSTI2024

Generation of realistic input parameters for simulating atmospheric point-spread functions at astronomical observatories

High-fidelity simulated astronomical images are an important tool in developing and measuring the performance of image-processing algorithms, particularly for high precision measurements of cosmic shear – correlated distortions of images of distant galaxies due to weak gravitational lensing caused by the large-scale mass distribution in the Universe. For unbiased measurements of cosmic shear, all other sources of correlated image distortions must be modeled or removed. One such source is the correlated blurring of images due to optical turbulence in the atmosphere, which dominates the point-spread function (PSF) for ground-based instruments. In this work, we leverage data from weather forecasting models to produce wind speeds and directions, and turbulence parameters, that are realistically correlated with altitude. To study the resulting correlations in the size and shape of the PSF, we generate simulated images of the PSF across a ~10 square-degree field of view – the size of the camera focal plane for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile – using weather data and historical seeing for a geographic location near the Observatory. We make quantitative predictions for two-point correlation functions (2PCF) that are used in analyses of cosmic shear. We observe a strong anisotropy in the two-dimensional 2PCF, which is expected based on observations in real images, and study the dependence of the orientation of the anisotropy on dominant wind directions near the ground and at higher altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Understanding the Impacts of Soil Moisture Initial Conditions on NWP in the Context of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from ‘off-the-shelf’ products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high resolution land surface model and in-situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land vs. atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.

Southern Great Plains↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Post-fire Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) Distribution to Inform Management Planning

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a species of concern across the western United States as it has the potential to outcompete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and diminish nutrient availability for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass can quickly dominate disturbed landscapes it has the potential to exacerbate wildfire risk by increasing fuel loads. In 2020, the Cameron Peak fire burned more than 200,000 acres on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests in Colorado. These issues are of imminent concern for our partners at the Forest Service (USFS), as they are tasked with wildfire risk and invasive species mitigation. Disturbances such as wildfires can substantially increase the rate and extent of cheatgrass spread. Current cheatgrass mitigation methods rely on field crews to physically locate cheatgrass on the landscape, which takes time, money, and extensive manpower. Here, we developed two Random Forest models within the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) using remote sensing predictors derived from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The first model identified suitable cheatgrass habitat while the other detected cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. Topographic variables were found to be the most important in driving the habitat suitability model. Cheatgrass detection was also found to be possible within a short timespan with limited imagery surrounding a phenological shift of the plant. Maps produced from these models provide natural resource managers the ability to implement early detection and rapid response to prevent the spread of cheatgrass to new locations.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neural Posterior Estimation for Cataloging Astronomical Images with Spatially Varying Backgrounds and Point Spread Functions

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images exhibit spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a novel NPE-based cataloging method that trains an inference network with semisynthetic astronomical images generated using PSFs and backgrounds sampled from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. In experiments with semisynthetic images, we evaluate the method on key cataloging tasks: light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement. A “generalist” inference network—trained with diverse PSFs and backgrounds—performs as well as a “specialist” network even when both are evaluated on the specialist’s particular PSF/background combination. This result suggests that a single NPE network can generalize across spatial variations, eliminating the need for retraining on each observational condition.

astronomy image processing↗

NASA NTRS1974

An assessment of the potential impact of solid-fueled rocket engines in the stratosphere

The effects of shuttle-emitted HCl on stratospheric ozone are reported. A one-dimensional model of the distribution of trace constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere is described, and chemical reactions and photodissociation rates in the chlorine chemistry are listed. Analysis of mathematical models is presented, and the results show ozone depletion when emissions are considered to be spread uniformly in the horizontal over a hemisphere and an increase in ozone when emissions are considered in a zone 1000 km wide centered at Cape Kennedy. Sensitivity studies to determine the effects of some assumptions in the model and comparisons with nitric oxide reactions are described. The importance of a two-dimensional model for a proper long term study is noted. Lists of reaction rate coefficients and photodissociation rates for the O-H-N system are included.

Whitten, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Deep Gravity model for mobility flows generation

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence critical aspects of our society, such as well-being, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. When information about mobility flows is not available for a particular region of interest, we must rely on mathematical models to generate them. In this work, we propose Deep Gravity, an effective model to generate flow probabilities that exploits many features (e.g., land use, road network, transport, food, health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic data, and uses deep neural networks to discover non-linear relationships between those features and mobility flows. Our experiments, conducted on mobility flows in England, Italy, and New York State, show that Deep Gravity achieves a significant increase in performance, especially in densely populated regions of interest, with respect to the classic gravity model and models that do not use deep neural networks or geographic data. Deep Gravity has good generalization capability, generating realistic flows also for geographic areas for which there is no data availability for training. Finally, we show how flows generated by Deep Gravity may be explained in terms of the geographic features and highlight crucial differences among the three considered countries interpreting the model’s prediction with explainable AI techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Anomalous Transport in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks: Interplay Between Aperture Heterogeneity and Injection Modes

In this work, we study how the interplay between fracture aperture heterogeneity and tracer injection mode controls fluid flow and tracer transport in three-dimensional (3D) discrete fracture networks (DFNs). The direct 3-D DFN simulations show that tracer injection mode has substantial effects on tracer spreading across all levels of aperture heterogeneity. The key controlling factor for effective transport is the initial Lagrangian velocity distribution, which is determined by the interplay between injection mode and aperture heterogeneity. The fundamental difference between initial Lagrangian velocity distribution and domain-scale Eulerian velocity distribution plays a vital role in determining anomalous transport. We effectively capture the observed anomalous transport using an upscaled transport model that incorporates initial velocity distribution, stationary velocity distribution, velocity correlation length, and average advective tortuosity. With the upscaled transport model, we accurately capture the evolution of Lagrangian velocity distribution and predict longitudinal spreading in 3-D DFN.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Image Discrimination Models With Stochastic Channel Selection

Many models of human image processing feature a large fixed number of channels representing cortical units varying in spatial position (visual field direction and eccentricity) and spatial frequency (radial frequency and orientation). The values of these parameters are usually sampled at fixed values selected to ensure adequate overlap considering the bandwidth and/or spread parameters, which are usually fixed. Even high levels of overlap does not always ensure that the performance of the model will vary smoothly with image translation or scale changes. Physiological measurements of bandwidth and/or spread parameters result in a broad distribution of estimated parameter values and the prediction of some psychophysical results are facilitated by the assumption that these parameters also take on a range of values. Selecting a sample of channels from a continuum of channels rather than using a fixed set can make model performance vary smoothly with changes in image position, scale, and orientation. It also facilitates the addition of spatial inhomogeneity, nonlinear feature channels, and focus of attention to channel models.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Frequency band broadening of magnetospheric VLF emissions near the equator

The broadening of the whistler mode VLF emission band has frequently been observed by the equatorially orbiting S3-A (Explorer 45) satellite outside the midnight sector of the plasmasphere, during periods of geomagnetic disturbance. Prior to the broadening, the band of this emission is narrow with a sharp gap at the half electron gyrofrequency. The gradual broadening of the emission band on the low-frequency side is associated with the simultaneously observed spreading of the anisotropy of the ring current electrons to higher and wider energy ranges. Using the modeled distribution function, the linear growth rates of the cyclotron instability are calculated numerically. The results suggest that broadening of the VLF emission band near the plasmasphere can be caused by spreading of the ring current electron anisotropy toward higher energies.

Maeda, K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using SWMM for emergency response planning: A case study evaluating biological agent transport under various rainfall scenarios and urban surfaces

To assist in emergency preparedness for a biological agent terrorist attack or accidental pathogen release, potential contaminant levels and migration pathways of spores spread by urban stormwater were evaluated using a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City, North Carolina. The high temporal-spatial resolution SWMM model was built using spore concentrations in stormwater runoff from asphalt, grass, and concrete collected from a point-scale field study. The subsequent modeled contamination scenarios included a notional plume release and point releases mimicking the field study under three rainfall conditions. The rainfall scenarios included a 6-hour natural rainfall event on Dec. 8, 2021 and two design storms (2-year and 100-year events). The observed spore concentrations from asphalt and concrete from the actual field experiment were applied to calibrate the washoff parameters in the SWMM model, using an exponential washoff function. The calibrated washoff coefficient (c 1 ) and exponent (c 2 ) were 0.01 and 1.00 for asphalt, 0.05 and 1.45 for grass, and 2.45 and 1.00 for concrete, respectively. The calibrated SWMM model simulated spore concentrations in runoff at times and magnitudes similar to the field study data. In the point release modeled scenario, the concrete surface generated 55.6% higher average spore concentrations than asphalt. Similarly, in the field experiment, a 175% (p < 0.05) higher average spore concentration in surface runoff was observed from concrete than from asphalt. Here, this study demonstrates how SWMM may be used to evaluate spore washoff from urban surfaces under different precipitation amounts, intensities, and durations, and how visualized spatial migration pathways in stormwater runoff may be used for emergency planning and remediation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reaction-diffusive dynamics of number-conserving dissipative quantum state preparation

The use of dissipation for the controlled creation of nontrivial quantum many-body correlated states is of much fundamental and practical interest. What is the result of imposing number conservation, which, in closed system, gives rise to diffusive spreading? For this work, we investigate this question for a paradigmatic model of a two-band system, with dissipative dynamics aiming to empty one band and to populate the other, which had been introduced before for the dissipative stabilization of topological states. Going beyond the mean-field treatment of the dissipative dynamics, we demonstrate the emergence of a diffusive regime for the particle and hole density modes at intermediate length- and timescales, which, interestingly, can only be excited in nonlinear response to external fields. We also identify processes that limit the diffusive behavior of this mode at the longest length- and timescales. Strikingly, we find that these processes lead to a reaction-diffusion dynamics governed by the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation, making the designed dark state unstable towards a state with a finite particle and hole density.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing Intra-Halo Light with Galaxy Stacking in CIBER Images

We study the stellar halos of 0.2 ≲ $z$ ≲ 0.5 galaxies with stellar masses spanning $M$* ~ 10 10.5 to 10 12 $M$ ⊙ (approximately $L$* galaxies at this redshift) using imaging data from the Cosmic Infrared Background Experiment (CIBER). A previous CIBER fluctuation analysis suggested that intra-halo light (IHL) contributes a significant portion of the near-infrared extragalactic background light (EBL), the integrated emission from all sources throughout cosmic history. In this work, we carry out a stacking analysis with a sample of ~30,000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric galaxies from CIBER images in two near-infrared bands (1.1 and 1.8 $μ$m) to directly probe the IHL associated with these galaxies. We stack galaxies in five sub-samples split by brightness and detect an extended galaxy profile beyond the instrument point-spread function (PSF) derived by stacking stars. We jointly fit a model for the inherent galaxy light profile plus large-scale one- and two-halo clustering to measure the extended galaxy IHL. We detect nonlinear one-halo clustering in the 1.8 $μ$m band at a level consistent with numerical simulations. Furthermore, by extrapolating the fraction of extended galaxy light, we measure to all galaxy mass scales, we find ~30%/15% of the total galaxy light budget from galaxies is at radius $r$ > 10/20 kpc, respectively. These results are new at near-infrared wavelengths at the $L$* mass scale and suggest that the IHL emission and one-halo clustering could have appreciable contributions to the amplitude of large-scale EBL background fluctuations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Earthquake slip vectors and estimates of present-day plate motions

Two alternative models for present-day global plate motions are derived from subsets of the NUVEL-1 data in order to investigate the degree to which earthquake slip vectors affect the NUVEL-1 model and to provide estimates of present-day plate velocities that are independent of earthquake slip vectors. The data set used to derive the first model excludes subduction zone slip vectors. The primary purpose of this model is to demonstrate that the 240 subduction zone slip vectors in the NUVEL-1 data set do not greatly affect the plate velocities predicted by NUVEL-1. A data set that excludes all of the 724 earthquake slip vectors used to derive NUVEL-1 is used to derive the second model. This model is suitable as a reference model for kinematic studies that require plate velocity estimates unaffected by earthquake slip vectors. The slip-dependent slip vector bias along transform faults is investigated using the second model, and evidence is sought for biases in slip directions along spreading centers.

Demets, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2024

Combining Multi-Faceted Laboratory Studies of 74001-2 and Regional Remote Sensing to Address How Pyroclastic Eruptions Record and Affect the Lunar Volatile Budget

Basaltic magmatism is an efficient process for bringing volatiles from a planetary interior to its surface, with the possibility of generation of a transient lunar atmosphere as abundant volcanic materials de-gassed. However, pyroclastic deposits are locations where trapped gases may be studied [e.g., 2,3]. Volatile-rich pyroclastic deposits occur over a wide surface area of the Moon, indicating that the transport of volatiles and associated pyroclastic materials from the Moon’s mantle to the surface was a wide-spread phenomenon. Numerous studies analyzing remotely sensed data and using empirical modeling have demonstrated that various stages of pyroclastic eruptions significantly influence gas release patterns, morphology, and mineralogy of the deposit. Many observations based on mare basalts and pyroclastic deposits have identified potential histories of gas release [e.g., 2-10] and their influence on volatiles and their stable isotopes [e.g., 11-13]. The best representation of these pyroclastic deposits in the sample collection is core sample 74001-74002 that was collected during the Apollo 17 mission to the Taurus-Littrow Valley (TLV). The double drive tube penetrated a part of a regional-scale pyroclastic deposit and sampled approximately 68.1 cm of that deposit in the TLV. Remnants of this and other pyroclastic depos-its are represented throughout and beyond the TLV [e.g., 14-16]. The stratigraphy of this core has been investigated and defined by numerous studies. The CASA Moon SSERVI research team is conducting a multi-faceted analytical study of this deposit. Data generated from revisiting the stratigraphy of 74001-74002 will be used to place stable isotopes (H, B, Cl, S, Zn, Cu, Rb, Ga, Pb), Ar-Ar and U-Pb chronology, geochemistry, nanometer-scale observations of mineral surfaces, orbital observations, and experiments and modeling within a stratigraphic, eruptive, and geologic context. It is important to place these data into such a context. For example, recent S isotope measurements reported by Dottin et al. show differences within this core that may be related to either changes in source or eruptive process over the course of the eruption (vs. multiple eruptions). A fuller understanding of the stratigraphy is fundamental to resolving this interpretation. This comprehensive approach can only be achieved within the context of a program such as SSERVI. In addition, imaging produced in this project will be incorporated into a citizen scientist program to further identify many of the textural features of this double drive tube.

SSERVI↗