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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ion-capture electrodialysis using multifunctional adsorptive membranes

Technologies that can efficiently purify nontraditional water sources are needed to meet rising global demand for clean water. Water treatment plants typically require a series of costly separation units to achieve desalination and the removal of toxic trace contaminants such as heavy metals and boron. We report a series of robust, selective, and tunable adsorptive membranes that feature porous aromatic framework nanoparticles embedded within ion exchange polymers and demonstrate their use in an efficient, one-step separation strategy termed ion-capture electrodialysis. This process uses electrodialysis configurations with adsorptive membranes to simultaneously desalinate complex water sources and capture diverse target solutes with negligible capture of competing ions. Our methods are applicable to the development of efficient and selective multifunctional separations that use adsorptive membranes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗
DOE OSTI2026

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal variations in composition and sources of atmospheric ultrafine particles in urban Beijing based on near-continuous measurements

Abstract. Understanding the composition and sources of atmospheric ultrafine particles (UFPs) is essential in evaluating their exposure risks. It requires long-term measurements with high time resolution, which are scarce to date. We performed near-continuous measurements of UFP composition during four seasons in urban Beijing using a thermal desorption chemical ionization mass spectrometer, accompanied by real-time size distribution measurements. We found that UFPs in urban Beijing are dominated by organic components, varying seasonally from 68 % to 81 %. CHO organics (i.e., molecules containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen) are the most abundant in summer, while sulfur-containing organics, some nitrogen-containing organics, nitrate, and chloride are the most abundant in winter. With the increase of particle diameter, the contribution of CHO organics decreases, while that of sulfur-containing and nitrogen-containing organics, nitrate, and chloride increases. Source apportionment analysis of the UFP organics indicates contributions from cooking and vehicle sources, photooxidation sources enriched in CHO organics, and aqueous/heterogeneous sources enriched in nitrogen- and sulfur-containing organics. The increased contributions of cooking, vehicle, and photooxidation components are usually accompanied by simultaneous increases in UFP number concentrations related to cooking emission, vehicle emission, and new particle formation, respectively, while the increased contribution of the aqueous/heterogeneous composition is usually accompanied by the growth of UFP mode diameters. The highest UFP number concentrations in winter are due to the strongest new particle formation, the strongest local primary particle number emissions, and the slowest condensational growth of UFPs to larger sizes. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of urban UFP composition and sources and offers valuable datasets for the evaluation of UFP exposure risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synergies and trade-offs between storage, transmission, and sector coupling in high renewable energy systems

Energy storage, transmission, and sector coupling are some prominent flexibility solutions to support variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. However, investment cost uncertainties and public acceptance could hamper the deployment of these flexibility solutions. This raises questions about the development and cost-effectiveness of future energy systems, especially on how the dependence on local and cross-border solutions of flexibility would evolve if the uptake of these solutions is restricted. In this context, this paper identifies the synergies among flexibility options under restrictions on transmission expansion or increased costs of energy storage. It contributes to determining whether investments in energy storage and/or transmission expansion offer the least-cost transition and investigates the impact of sector coupling on these solutions. A long-term energy system planning and optimisation model towards 2050 is developed using the open-source energy system optimisation tool Balmorel, and a case study of the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea is established. Five cases with restrictions imposed on transmission expansion and higher energy storage technology costs are analysed at different levels of sector coupling. The results highlight the importance of transmission expansion at all levels of sector coupling. As the level of sector coupling increases, uncertainties around the cost of energy storage drive the least-cost pathways. Optimal investment solutions are found to have a mix of transmission and energy storage in capacity expansion at all levels of sector coupling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Emissions and Health Cost Impacts of Producing Ethanol and Electricity from Willow and Switchgrass in the Riparian Buffers of Mid-Atlantic United States

The United States (US Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) has the potential to grow a variety of perennial feedstocks such as switchgrass and shrub willow to increase domestic energy production. These cellulosic feedstocks have also shown improved ecosystem services, such as soil carbon sequestration, nitrate leaching reduction, and flood mitigation along rivers and streams as partially harvested riparian buffers. To examine the effects on greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutants (CAPs) from using these feedstocks to produce ethanol or electricity, we conducted a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) and estimated the impact on human health costs when land use is changed from corn production for ethanol. Results indicate up to 54% reduced GHG per hectare from using willow and switchgrass feedstock sources to produce ethanol instead of corn. However, there was a trade-off in terms of CAP emission, as grass-based energy emitted more NO x and SO x compared to the corn ethanol pathway, except for SO X emissions from willow-based electricity. Electricity from cellulosic biomass had higher particulate matter (PM) emission compared to that from corn ethanol. Estimates for health cost to society ranged from $2498 ha –1 for electricity from switchgrass to a net benefit of $448 ha –1 for ethanol production from willow, depending on varying biomass yield under different market scenarios. Although using cellulosic feedstocks to produce bioenergy has great potential to reduce GHG emissions, CAP control measures are needed to manage CAP-induced health costs.

Bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanism-Informed Breakdown: Understanding Degradation by Controlling Voltage-Hold Patterns in Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

Low catalyst loadings pose challenges to performance stability in proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis over extended operation. To study the impact of degradation mechanisms and voltage loss rates, different stress tests are applied to membrane electrode assemblies. Potential cycling conditions were observed to induce higher degrees of iridium (Ir) oxide crystallization, ionomer degradation, and catalyst layer (CL) thinning, which likely contributed to higher kinetic loss rates. On the other hand, while Ir migrating into the PEM (Ir band) generally impairs performance, the interconnected and more uniform Ir band formed under a constant 2 V hold may allow for Ir at the catalyst/membrane interface to remain electronically connected and kinetically accessible, as well as indicate greater Ir site access during the applied stressor. The 2 V hold also demonstrates improved kinetic durability through a lower Tafel slope, faster polarization kinetics, and reduced charge transfer resistance. In contrast, potential cycling caused the migration of disconnected Ir agglomerates into the membrane bulk and created a steady increase in charge transfer resistance, a more dramatic decrease in capacitance (46.7% loss), and significant damage to the surrounding ionomer, indicating a decline in both the quality and quantity of active sites in the anode CL. This work underscores the distinct degradation pathways associated with load holds versus cycling, highlighting the role of catalyst-ionomer interactions in kinetic performance and long-term stability. These insights can inform operational strategies for PEM electrolyzers powered by intermittent energy sources, aiming to minimize efficiency losses over extended operation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Noncollinear ground states of solids with a source-free exchange correlation functional

In this paper, we expand upon the source-free (SF) exchange correlation (XC) functional developed by Sangeeta Sharma and coworkers to plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) based on the projector augmented wave (PAW) method. This constraint is implemented by the current authors within the VASP source code, using a fast Poisson solver that capitalizes on the parallel three-dimensional fast Fourier transforms (FFTs) implemented in VASP. Using this modified XC functional, we explore the improved convergence behavior that results from applying this constraint to the GGA-PBE+U+J functional. In the process, we compare the noncollinear magnetic ground state computed by each functional and their SF counterpart for a select number of magnetic materials in order to provide a metric for comparing with experimentally determined magnetic orderings. We observe significantly improved agreement with experimentally measured magnetic ground-state structures after applying the source-free constraint. Furthermore, we explore the importance of considering probability current densities in spin-polarized systems, even under no applied field. We analyze the XC torque as well, in order to provide theoretical and computational analyses of the net XC magnetic torque induced by the source-free constraint. Along these lines, we highlight the importance of properly considering the real-space integral of the source-free local magnetic XC field. Our analyses on probability currents, net torque, and constant terms draw additional links to the rich body of previous research on spin-current density functional theory (SCDFT), and pave the way for future extensions and corrections to the SF corrected XC functional.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Sustainability in Scientific Software through Code Quality & Test Coverage Metrics

Context: Scientific open-source software (SciOSS) plays a foundational role in research and engineering, yet its long-term sustainability has often been overlooked and remains a significant concern. Objective: This study investigates the long-term sustainability of SciOSS through code and test quality metrics. Method: We analyze CASS Software Portfolio projects, classifying them by sustainability and comparing their code structure, test coverage, and links between code quality and testing across the dataset. Results: Sustainable projects show higher, more consistent test coverage and clearer code-test correlations, while unsustainable ones show weaker patterns. Overall, test coverage is low in scientific software, and high complexity and coupling reduce testability. Conclusion: In this study, we present a practical, data-driven approach for assessing sustainability in scientific software, offering a foundation for evaluating long-term software health and supporting future efforts in quality assurance and sustainability monitoring.

Md mushfiqur rahman, Sheikh [University of Tenness↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Direct-Use Geothermal Feasibility Study for Hawthorne NV

The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Fusion to Enhance Quality Control and Analysis with Instruments at the Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory

Deploying environmental monitoring instruments in the marine environment can be challenging, facing challenges around device survivability, biofouling and corrosion, and consistent data collection. This project explores the use of data fusion – the process of integrating multiple data sources to produce more consistent, accurate, and useful information – to build a consistent long-term monitoring system at the Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) in Sequim, Washington. Unused instruments that had been acquired from past projects were inventoried and deployments planned on the MCRL pier and floating dock. A total of 8 instruments were deployed including a tide gauge, hydrophone, acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors, meteorological station, and three water quality sensors. Deployments were planned to be well-protected around the pier structure and a maintenance schedule was created for cleaning and recalibration. An automated data pipeline was created to aggregate data on edge computers that push data to Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud storage every 15 minutes, performing automated quality control and data transformations using the Time Series Data Analytical Toolkit (TSDAT). Continued efforts are underway to maintain this system into the future, take a data-driven approach to maintenance scheduling, improve the reliability of the system, and share the data with a variety of end-users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Low-Cost Methane Sensor Calibration Shortcomings with Machine Learning

Quantifying methane emissions is essential for meeting near-term climate goals and is typically carried out using methane concentrations measured downwind of the source. One major source of methane that is important to observe and promptly remediate is fugitive emissions from oil and gas production sites but installing methane sensors at the thousands of sites within a production basin is expensive. In recent years, relatively inexpensive metal oxide sensors have been used to measure methane concentrations at production sites. Current methods used to calibrate metal oxide sensors have been shown to have significant shortcomings, resulting in limited confidence in methane concentrations generated by these sensors. To address this, we investigate using machine learning (ML) to generate a model that converts metal oxide sensor output to methane mixing ratios. To generate test data, two metal oxide sensors, TGS2600 and TGS2611, were collocated with a trace methane analyzer downwind of controlled methane releases. Over the duration of the measurements, the trace gas analyzer’s average methane mixing ratio was 2.40 ppm with a maximum of 147.6 ppm. The average calculated methane mixing ratios for the TGS2600 and TGS2611 using the ML algorithm were 2.42 ppm and 2.40 ppm, with maximum values of 117.5 ppm and 106.3 ppm, respectively. A comparison of histograms generated using the analyzer and metal oxide sensors mixing ratios shows overlap coefficients of 0.95 and 0.94 for the TGS2600 and TGS2611, respectively. Overall, our results showed there was a good agreement between the ML-derived metal oxide sensors’ mixing ratios and those generated using the more accurate trace gas analyzer. This suggests that the response of lower-cost sensors calibrated using ML could be used to generate mixing ratios with precision and accuracy comparable to higher priced trace methane analyzers. This would improve confidence in low-cost sensors’ response, reduce the cost of sensor deployment, and allow for timely and accurate tracking of methane emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Astronomy Commons Platform: A Deployable Cloud-based Analysis Platform for Astronomy

Abstract We present a scalable, cloud-based science platform solution designed to enable next-to-the-data analyses of terabyte-scale astronomical tabular data sets. The presented platform is built on Amazon Web Services (over Kubernetes and S3 abstraction layers), utilizes Apache Spark and the Astronomy eXtensions for Spark for parallel data analysis and manipulation, and provides the familiar JupyterHub web-accessible front end for user access. We outline the architecture of the analysis platform, provide implementation details and rationale for (and against) technology choices, verify scalability through strong and weak scaling tests, and demonstrate usability through an example science analysis of data from the Zwicky Transient Facility’s 1Bn+ light-curve catalog. Furthermore, we show how this system enables an end user to iteratively build analyses (in Python) that transparently scale processing with no need for end-user interaction. The system is designed to be deployable by astronomers with moderate cloud engineering knowledge, or (ideally) IT groups. Over the past 3 yr, it has been utilized to build science platforms for the DiRAC Institute, the ZTF partnership, the LSST Solar System Science Collaboration, and the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing, as well as for numerous short-term events (with over 100 simultaneous users). In a live demo instance, the deployment scripts, source code, and cost calculators are accessible. 4 4 http://hub.astronomycommons.org/

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Documenting numerical experiments in support of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

Abstract. Numerical simulation, and in particular simulation of the earth system, relies on contributions from diverse communities, from those who develop models to those involved in devising, executing, and analysing numerical experiments. Often these people work in different institutions and may be working with significant separation in time (particularly analysts, who may be working on data produced years earlier), and they typically communicate via published information (whether journal papers, technical notes, or websites). The complexity of the models, experiments, and methodologies, along with the diversity (and sometimes inexact nature) of information sources, can easily lead to misinterpretation of what was actually intended or done. In this paper we introduce a taxonomy of terms for more clearly defining numerical experiments, put it in the context of previous work on experimental ontologies, and describe how we have used it to document the experiments of the sixth phase for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We describe how, through iteration with a range of CMIP6 stakeholders, we rationalized multiple sources of information and improved the clarity of experimental definitions. We demonstrate how this process has added value to CMIP6 itself by (a) helping those devising experiments to be clear about their goals and their implementation, (b) making it easier for those executing experiments to know what is intended, (c) exposing interrelationships between experiments, and (d) making it clearer for third parties (data users) to understand the CMIP6 experiments. We conclude with some lessons learnt and how these may be applied to future CMIP phases as well as other modelling campaigns.

Pascoe, Charlotte (ORCID:0000000223616778)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple sources of aerobic methane production in aquatic ecosystems include bacterial photosynthesis

Aquatic ecosystems are globally significant sources of the greenhouse gas methane to the atmosphere. Until recently, methane production was thought to be a strictly anaerobic process confined primarily to anoxic sediments. However, supersaturation of methane in oxygenated waters has been consistently observed in lakes and the ocean (termed the ‘methane paradox’), indicating that methane can be produced under oxic conditions through unclear mechanisms. Here we show aerobic methane production from multiple sources in freshwater incubation experiments under different treatments and based on biogeochemical, metagenomic, and metatranscriptomic data. We find that aerobic methane production appears to be associated with (bacterio)chlorophyll metabolism and photosynthesis, as well as with Proteobacterial degradation of methylphosphonate. Genes encoding pathways for putative photosynthetic- and methylphosphonate-based methane production also co-occur in Proteobacterial metagenome-assembled genomes. Our findings provide insight into known mechanisms of aerobic methane production, and suggest a potential co-occurring mechanism associated with bacterial photosynthesis in aquatic ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Fission-like Neutron Spectrum Shaping Assembly based on D-T Generator

For nearly five decades, 252 Cf sources have been used for testing and calibration over a wide range of neutron detection devices used for nuclear safety and radiation protection. However, the vastly increased cost of 252 Cf sources, its short half-life, and concerns about future shortage have prompted nuclear facilities and radiological calibration laboratories that rely on high-intensity neutron sources to seek alternatives. While there appear to be no other radionuclide neutron sources that would match the 252 Cf performance characteristics, all of them, including 252 Cf, present similar concerns in terms of hazards, safety, and security. As a possible solution to this issue, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a low-risk, cost-efficient alternative to produce fission-like spectra based on commercially available deuterium-tritium (D-T) neutron generators. The alternative of producing a fission-like neutron spectrum without any fissionable materials or beryllium would enable the nuclear facilities across the entire complex to eliminate their reliance on high intensity 252 Cf sources for nuclear safety and radiation protection applications, substantially reducing risks and associated costs. This report describes efforts of designing the spectrum shaping assembly, its construction and characterization of the neutron field produced. Performance of this newly developed D-T generator based neutron field is demonstrated via calibration of a criticality detector, neutron survey instruments, and personal dosimeters verified against current standardized fields produced by 252 Cf spontaneous fission sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗