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At least 721 records · Page 40

Shuttle radiation dose measurements in the International Space Station orbits

The International Space Station (ISS) is now a reality with the start of a permanent human presence on board. Radiation presents a serious risk to the health and safety of the astronauts, and there is a clear requirement for estimating their exposures prior to and after flights. Predictions of the dose rate at times other than solar minimum or solar maximum have not been possible, because there has been no method to calculate the trapped-particle spectrum at intermediate times. Over the last few years, a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been flown at a fixed mid-deck location on board the Space Shuttle in 51.65 degrees inclination flights. These flights have provided data that cover the expected changes in the dose rates due to changes in altitude and changes in solar activity from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of the current 23rd solar cycle. Based on these data, a simple function of the solar deceleration potential has been derived that can be used to predict the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) dose rates to within +/-10%. For altitudes to be covered by the ISS, the dose rate due to the trapped particles is found to be a power-law function, rho(-2/3), of the atmospheric density, rho. This relationship can be used to predict trapped dose rates inside these spacecraft to +/-10% throughout the solar cycle. Thus, given the shielding distribution for a location inside the Space Shuttle or inside an ISS module, this approach can be used to predict the combined GCR + trapped dose rate to better than +/-15% for quiet solar conditions.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Response of Venus exospheric temperature measured by neutral mass spectrometer to solar EUV flux measured by Langmuir probe on the Pioneer Venus orbiter

The photoelectron current from the Pioneer Venus Langmuir probe has provided measurements of the total flux of solar EUV photons at Venus since 1979. The neutral oxygen scale height measured by the orbiter neutral mass spectrometer has permitted the exospheric temperature to be derived during the same mission. In this paper, the EUV observations are used to examine the response of exospheric temperature to changes in solar activity, primarily those related to solar rotation. It is found that the dayside exospheric temperature quite faithfully tracks variations in the EUV flux. Comparison is also made with the earth-based solar activity index F10.7 adjusted to the position of Venus. This index varied from 142 to 249 flux units during the period of measurements. The exospheric temperature is better correlated with EUV flux than with the 10.7-cm solar radio flux.

Mahajan, K. K.↗

Leveraging Energy Storage in a Solar-Tower and Combined Cycle Hybrid Power Plant

A method is presented to enhance solar penetration of a hybrid solar-combined cycle power plant integrated with a packed-bed thermal energy storage system. The hybrid plant is modeled using Simulink and employs systems-level automation. Feedback control regulates net power, collector temperature, and turbine firing temperature. A base-case plant is presented, and plant design is systematically modified to improve solar energy utilization. A novel recycling configuration enables robust control of collector temperature and net power during times of high solar activity. Recycling allows for improved solar energy utilization and a yearly solar fraction over 30%, while maintaining power control. During significant solar activity, excessive collector temperature and power setpoint mismatch are still observed with the proposed recycling configuration. A storage bypass is integrated with recycling, to lower storage charging rate. This operation results in diverting only a fraction of air flow to storage, which lowers the storage charging rate and improves solar energy utilization. Recycling with a storage bypass can handle larger solar inputs and a solar fraction over 70% occurs when following a drastic peaking power load. The novel plant configuration is estimated to reduce levelized cost of the plant by over 4% compared to the base-case plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Topside Equatorial Ionospheric Density and Composition Climatology During and After Extreme Solar Minimum

During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Climatological altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the C/NOFS satellite to characterize the shape of the top side ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. [2009], here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.

Klenzing, J. H.↗

Topside Equatorial Ionospheric Density and Composition During and After Extreme Solar Minimum

During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth s ionosphere-thermosphere system when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite to characterize the shape of the topside ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. (2009), here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.

Klenzing, J.↗

Long-term variation of the solar diurnal anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays observed with the Nagoya multi-directional muon detector

We analyze the three-dimensional anisotropy of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities observed independently with a muon detector at Nagoya in Japan and neutron monitors over four solar activity cycles. We clearly see the phase of the free-space diurnal anisotropy shifting toward earlier hours around solar activity minima in A > 0 epochs, due to the reduced anisotropy component parallel to the mean magnetic field. This component is consistent with a rigidity-independent spectrum, while the perpendicular anisotropy component increases with GCR rigidity. We suggest that this harder spectrum of the perpendicular component is due to contribution from the drift streaming. We find that the bi-directional latitudinal density gradient is positive in the A > 0 epoch, while it is negative in the A < 0 epoch, in agreement with the drift model prediction. The radial density gradient of GCRs, on the other hand, varies with a ∼11 yr cycle with maxima (minima) in solar maximum (minimum) periods, but we find no significant difference between the radial gradients in the A > 0 and A < 0 epochs. The corresponding parallel mean free path is larger in A < 0 than in A > 0. We also find, however, that the parallel mean free path (radial gradient) appears to persistently increase (decrease) in the last three cycles of weakening solar activity. We suggest that simple differences between these parameters in A > 0 and A < 0 epochs are seriously biased by these long-term trends.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum

Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.

Kostiuk, T.↗

Mg IX emission lines in an active region spectrum obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical electron-temperature-sensitive Mg IX emission line ratios are presented for R(sub 1) = I(443.96 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 2) = I(439.17 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 3) = I(443.37 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 4) = I(441.22 A)/I(368.06 A), and R(sub 5) = I(448.28 A)/I(368.06 A). A comparison of these with observational data for a solar active region, obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals excellent agreement between theory and observation for R(sub 1) through R(sub 4), with discrepancies that average only 9%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on board Skylab. However in the case of R(sub 5), the theoretical and observed ratios differ by almost a factor of 2. This may be due to the measured intensity of the 448.28 A line being seriously affected by instrumental effects, as it lies very close to the long wavelength edge of the SERTS spectral coverage (235.46-448.76 A).

Keenan, F. P.↗

A comparison of theoretical CIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the solar EUV rocket telescope and spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s 2S - 3p 2P, 2p 2p - 3s 2S, and 2p 2S - 3d 2D transitions in C IV between 312 and 420 A are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22 percent. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on board Skylab. The potential usefulness of the C IV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.

Keenan, F. P.↗

What Preparatory Science is Needed in Coronal Structure and Activity

Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus will launch in six short years! Before then, we need to accomplish a great deal of science in order to be able to maximize the return of these missions. Preparatory science is especially important for exploratory missions such as SO and SPP, because they truly will be going "where no mission has gone before". Such preparatory science may include all types of research: theory, modeling, data exploitation, and supporting observations. This meeting provides an opportunity for the community to define and begin this critical preparatory work. In this talk I will provide an overview of our state of knowledge in coronal structure and activity, describe what I believe are the most promising opportunities for advances by SO and SPP, and lead a discussion on what programs need to be implemented now in order to achieve these science advances by the time SO and SPP launch.

Antiochos, S. K.↗

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗

COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detecting and disentangling nonlinear structure from solar flux time series

Interest in solar activity has grown in the past two decades for many reasons. Most importantly for flight dynamics, solar activity changes the atmospheric density, which has important implications for spacecraft trajectory and lifetime prediction. Building upon the previously developed Rayleigh-Benard nonlinear dynamic solar model, which exhibits many dynamic behaviors observed in the Sun, this work introduces new chaotic solar forecasting techniques. Our attempt to use recently developed nonlinear chaotic techniques to model and forecast solar activity has uncovered highly entangled dynamics. Numerical techniques for decoupling additive and multiplicative white noise from deterministic dynamics and examines falloff of the power spectra at high frequencies as a possible means of distinguishing deterministic chaos from noise than spectrally white or colored are presented. The power spectral techniques presented are less cumbersome than current methods for identifying deterministic chaos, which require more computationally intensive calculations, such as those involving Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Outline of the Solar System: Activities for elementary students

An introduction to the solar system for the elementary school student is given. The introduction contains historical background, facts, and pertinent symbols concerning the sun, the nine major planets and their moons, and information about comets and asteroids. Aids to teaching are given, including a solar system crossword puzzle with answers.

Hartsfield, J.↗

Jovian Northern Ethane Aurora and the Solar Cycle

Thermal infrared auroral spectra from Jupiter's North polar region have been collected from 1979 to 1998 in a continuing study of long-term variability in the northern thermal IR aurora, using C2H6 emission lines near 12 microns as a probe. Data from Voyager I and 2 IRIS measurements and ground based spectral measurements were analyzed using the same model atmosphere to provide a consistent relative comparison. A retrieved equivalent mole fraction was used to compare the observed integrated emission. Short term (days), medium term (months) and long term (years) variability in the ethane emission was observed. The variability Of C2H6 emission intensities was compared to Jupiter's seasonal cycle and the solar activity cycle. A positive correlation appears to exist, with significantly greater emission and short term variability during solar maxima. Observations on 60 N latitude during increased solar activity in 1979, 1989, and most recently in 1998 show up to 5 times brighter integrated line emission of C2H6 near the north polar "hot spot" (150-210 latitude) than from the north quiescent region. Significantly lower enhancement was observed during periods of lower solar activity in 1982, 1983, 1993, and 1995. Possible sources and mechanisms for the enhancement and variability will be discussed.

Kostiuk,T.↗

Hot oxygen geocorona as inferred from neutral exospheric models and mass spectrometer measurements

Summer hot oxygen densities of 10,000-30,000 per cubic cm at 1100 km (or 100,000-300,000 at 550 km) for low to moderate solar activities are inferred from differences between satellite drag and mass-spectrometer-based models. At high solar activities, densities at 925 km from 100,000-400,000 (or 5 x 10 to the 5th to 2 x 10 to the 6th at 550 km) are inferred from a limited number of Dynamics Explorer mass spectrometer measurements. The densities are of the same order as those reported previously from ground-based optical measurements. It is pointed out that a detailed theoretical calculation of the hot oxygen distribution consistent with the cool populations in mass-spectrometer-based models would provide the basis for a more complete interpretation of mass spectrometer data and of high-altitude differences between drag-based and mass-spectrometer-based models. It is concluded that hot oxygen could be providing the major contribution to satellite drag in the summer lower exosphere during low solar activity.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Ground-based observations of equatorial thermosphere dynamics with a Fabry-Perot interferometer

Fabry-Perot determinations of thermospheric temperatures from 630.0 nm nightglow line width measurements were carried out for the period April to August, 1983. The nightly variation of the thermospheric temperature measured on 53 nights is compared with MSIS model predictions and found to agree occasionally with the model but, on the average, to exceed model predictions by approximately 180 K. The largest differences, 400 to 500 K occur during strongly increasing geomagnetic activity. Significant differences occur both during high geomagnetic/low solar activity and during low geomagnetic/high solar activity.

Meriwether, J. W., Jr.↗

H2O(+) ions in comets: Comet Kohoutek (1973f) and comet Bradfield (1974b)

The image tube Cassegrain slit spectra of comet Kohoutek and Bradfield calibrated and reduced to relative intensities are discussed. Monochromatic changes in the surface brightness for various neutral and ionized molecules are determined. The intensities of C2 and CN decreased approximately four times faster than the intensity change for the H2O(+) features. It is shown that the excitation mechanism for the observed H2O(+) bands is by fluorescent scattering of the incident solar radiation. The effects of solar activity on the photoionization rate of H2O in a comet are discussed. Observations of another bright comet at the time of maximum solar activity are needed to determine changes in band intensities of comet tail ions due to solar activity.

Wehinger, P.↗