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At least 721 records · Page 40

Nth-plant supply: corn stover supplies and costs in a fleet of biorefineries

Feedstock cost and cost variability is expected to increase with the number of biorefineries. To quantify this effect, this spatial-economic analysis simulates feedstock cost and cost variability of an industry based on corn stover as a function of the number of biorefineries. Results are reported for nine scenarios (a base case and sensitivity analysis of four variables – harvest efficiency, sustainability constraints, opportunity cost, and corn grain yield) under deterministic and stochastic simulations, assuming biorefineries using 658 000 Mg (725 000 tons) year- 1 of corn stover in 2019. The resulting supply curves are highly elastic (i.e. little change in cost) for the first 50 of the 121 biorefineries, with price increases in subsequent biorefineries depending on scenario. In the base-case deterministic scenario, weighted-average stover costs are $66 Mg -1 ($60 ton- 1 ), $69 Mg -1 ($62 ton -1 ), and $156 Mg -1 ($142 ton -1 ), at the first, 60th, and 121st biorefineries, respectively. The stochastic simulations, subject to observed 30-year corn yield variability, follow a similar pattern, with price distributions that vary by scenario. The base-case stochastic simulations illustrate minimal cost variability for the first 60 biorefineries, but rapid increases in cost variability in the second half of potential biorefineries, with similar patterns observed in the other scenarios. Of the four variables explored, price was most sensitive to harvest efficiency, followed by sustainability constraints, corn yield, and opportunity cost. Results suggest that, under conventional logistics, about half of the US corn stover resource is reliably available with minimum cost increase and variability. Interactive visualization is available at https://doi.org/10.11578/1828779.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effect of Ice Number Concentration on the Evolution of Boundary Layer Clouds During Arctic Marine Cold‐Air Outbreaks

Abstract Marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs) are crucial for Arctic Ocean heat loss, featuring convective cloud rolls that transition into convection cells downstream. Understanding factors controlling this transformation is the key for improving MCAO cloud representation in climate models. This study employs large‐eddy simulations to investigate how cloud ice number concentrations () affect cloud evolution using a case from the Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) campaign. The simulations, performed in a Lagrangian framework following an air mass trajectory, are driven by ERA5 reanalysis data. Initially, all simulations produce similar cloud patterns, but higher leads to earlier breakup of cloud rolls. Between 4 and 10 hr, surface precipitation rates are similar across simulations, but precipitation initiates earlier, and the cloud‐base precipitation rates are higher when is higher. The stronger precipitation evaporation leads to increased stability of the boundary layer and reduced intensity of vertical mixing between the surface and cloud layer. An increased sink of cloud layer moisture via precipitation and decreased source through diminished vertical transport result in earlier cloud breakup in higher conditions. Simulations with different sea surface temperatures (SST) indicate that this cloud breakup mechanism remains valid for MCAOs of different strengths, although the cloud organization is more sensitive to SST changes in low environments. This work highlights the importance of accurate representations of ice processes in simulating MCAO clouds and suggests the need for observational constraints of ice nucleating particles and over the mixed‐phase cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging observed soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes as a novel constraint on global-scale models

Microbially-explicit models may improve understanding and projections of carbon dynamics in response to future climate change, but their fidelity in simulating global-scale soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), a stringent test for soil biogeochemical models, has never been evaluated. We used statistical global RH products, as well as 7,821 daily site-scale RH measurements, to evaluate the spatio-temporal performance of one first-order decay model (CASA-CNP) and two microbially-explicit biogeochemical models (CORPSE and MIMICS) that were forced by two different climate datasets. CORPSE and MIMICS did not provide any measurable performance improvement; instead, the models were highly sensitive to the meteorological input data used to drive them. Spatial RH variability was generally well simulated except in the northern middle latitudes (~50°N) and arid regions; models captured the seasonal variability of RH well, but showed more divergence in tropic and arctic regions. Our results demonstrate that the next generation of biogeochemical models shows promise, but also needs to be improved for realistic spatio-temporal variability of RH. Finally, we emphasize the importance of net primary production, soil moisture, and soil temperature inputs, and that jointly evaluating soil models for their spatial (global scale) and temporal (site scale) performance provides crucial benchmarks for improving biogeochemical models.

Jian, Jinshi↗

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Instabilities and phase transitions in architected metamaterials: a gradient-enhanced continuum approach

Architected metamaterials such as foams and lattices exhibit a wide range of properties governed by microstructural instabilities and emerging phase transitions. Their macroscopic response–including energy dissipation during impact, large recoverable deformations, morphing between configurations, and auxetic behavior–remains difficult to capture with conventional continuum models, which often rely on discrete approaches that limit scalability. In this work, we propose a nonlocal continuum formulation that captures both stable and unstable responses of elastic architected metamaterials. The framework extends anisotropic hyperelasticity by introducing nonlocal variables and internal length scales reflective of microstructural features. Local polyconvex free-energy models are systematically augmented with two families of non-(poly)convex energies, enabling both metastable and bistable responses. Implementation in a finite element framework enables solution using a hybrid monolithic–staggered strategy. Simulations capture densification fronts, forward and reverse transitions, hysteresis loops, imperfection sensitivity, and globally coordinated auxetic modes. Overall, this framework provides a robust foundation for accelerated modeling of instability-driven phenomena in architected metamaterials, while enabling extensions to anisotropic, dissipative, and active systems as well as integration with data-driven and machine learning approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High precision strike point control to support experiments in the DIII-D small angle slot divertor

Improvements in strike point control enabled tests with the new Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertor installed at DIII-D with precision as tight as ±1 mm, barring brief perturbations from ELMs. Aside from being narrower than previous baffle structures in DIII-D, simulations indicate that performance of the SAS divertor should be very sensitive to strike point position, making the improved strike point control essential for experiments with the SAS divertor. Improved control entails regulating more divertor geometry target locations than before and setting higher gain on the strike point target. This is achieved by tasking more poloidal field (PF) shaping coils with divertor topology control, fine tuning of the coil configuration and algorithm gains, and adding regulation of the power supply common rail. Here, the result is that although more variables are controlled, precision is better: high frequency jitter in the strike point position is lower on average compared to related discharges with standard divertor shape control.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Rossi-alpha measurements of fast plutonium metal assemblies using organic scintillators

The reactivity and the k-effective multiplication factor (k eff ) of a fissionable assembly are quantities of widespread interest. These values can be inferred from Rossi-alpha measurements of the prompt neutron decay constant (or the inverse:α -1 ). It has been shown that 3 He-gas proportional counter-based detection systems are insensitive to α -1 of fast assemblies (much faster than tens of microseconds). Therefore, it is of interest to investigate fast detection systems such as those based on organic scintillation detectors. In this work, an array of 12 cylindrical, 5.08 cm x 5.08 cm diameter trans-stilbene organic scintillators was used to measure five subcritical assemblies. One assembly was a sphere of approximately 4.5 kg of alpha-phase, weapons-grade plutonium (k eff = 0.773, α -1 = 11.84 ns) known as the BeRP ball encased in a thin stainless-steel clad. The other assemblies used the same encased sphere and 7.62 cm of iron, nickel, copper, or tungsten reflectors (k eff = 0.884, 0.916, 0.924, 0.939, respectively and α -1 = 36.60, 41.56, 49.60, 70.32 ns, respectively). Finally, this work (1) validates Rossi-alpha measurements with organic scintillators by demonstrating good agreement between measurements and simulations; and (2), demonstrates that organic scintillator-based systems are sensitive to α -1 on the order of 10–100 ns.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Centrifuge modeling and numerical analysis on lateral performance of mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines

The lateral loading performance of the mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines is investigated in this study through a series of centrifuge tests and numerical analysis. Six mono-bucket models are considered to assess the influences of aspect ratio under the ultimate condition. The FE model is validated against the centrifuge test results, and the failure mechanism of the foundation is revealed. The parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the soil parameters are performed in the numerical simulations. A modified theoretical calculation method is proposed to estimate the ultimate lateral capacity of the suction bucket foundation by solving the limit equilibrium equations. A correction term is added in the calculation using the “m” method. The position of the rotation center is calculated, demonstrating a better accuracy compared to the previously reported geometric method. The modified calculation method is verified against the field test, the centrifuge test, and the laboratory test. The method is proved to be applicable in estimating the lateral performance of the mono-bucket foundation in a general form. Finally, this study aims to provide well-documented data and design references for practical engineers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Chemical kinetic interactions of NO with a multi-component gasoline surrogate: Experiments and modeling

Here this work reports an experimental and modeling study on the chemical kinetic interactions of NO with a multi-component gasoline surrogate, namely PACE-20, using a twin-piston rapid compression machine at a stochiometric fuel loading with 20% EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) by mass, pressures of 20 and 40 bar, and temperatures from 700 to 930 K. Five NO concentrations are investigated, namely 0, 20, 50, 70 and 150 ppm, where NO addition effects are characterized through changes in PACE-20 ignition reactivity and heat release characteristics. Experiments indicate that within the low-temperature regime, NO promotes low-temperature heat release rate and main ignition reactivity at low addition levels, with saturation or even inhibiting effects observed at >50 ppm NO addition, while within the NTC/intermediate-temperature regime, adding NO only promotes reactivity. A recently updated, detailed chemical kinetic model with chemistry specific to NOx/hydrocarbons interaction incorporated is used to simulate the experiments, and reasonable agreement is obtained. In-depth sensitivity and rate of production analyses are further performed. The results indicate that NO interacts with PACE-20 via two types of interaction: (a) direct interactions between NO and PACE-20 derivatives, primarily through NO+HO 2 ↔NO 2 +OH and RO 2 +NO↔RO+NO 2 , and (b) indirect interactions between PACE-20 derivatives and NO 2 produced from the direct interactions, primarily through R+NO 2 ↔RO+NO. The observed NO inhibiting effect at low temperatures and 150 ppm NO addition is attributed to the lack of HO 2 radicals to sustain NO consumption via NO+HO 2 ↔NO 2 +OH, and the take-up of inhibiting pathways via RO 2 +NO↔RO+NO 2 . The results also indicate that even with the presence of multiple fuel components, NOx/hydrocarbons interactions are highly selective, and are mainly initiated by the interactions between NO and RO 2 radicals from cyclopentane and ethanol, as well as between NO 2 and R radicals from toluene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene and 1-hexene. Further studies on these interactive reactions are therefore highly recommended.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrate loading projection is sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle representation

Climate change can have substantial impacts on nitrogen runoff, which is a major cause of eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia in freshwaters and coastal regions. We examined responses of nitrate loading to climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) with an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT), as compared with the original SWAT model that employs an empirical equation. Driven by future climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2099 under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, we analyzed changes in riverine nitrate loadings, as well as terrestrial surface and subsurface contributions of the UMRB in the 21st century relative to the baseline period of 1960–1999. By the end of the 21st century, the original SWAT model predicted about a 50% increase in riverine nitrate loadings which is nearly twice as much as that estimated by SWAT-FT (ca. 25%). Such a large difference in projected nitrate changes can potentially mislead mitigation strategies that aim to reduce nitrogen runoff from the UMRB. Further analysis shows that the difference between the original SWAT model and SWAT-FT led to substantial discrepancies in the spatial distribution of surface and subsurface nitrate loadings in the UMRB. In general, SWAT-FT predicted more nitrate leaching for northwestern parts of the UMRB which are more sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle, mainly because SWAT-FT simulated less frequent frozen soils. This study highlights the importance of using physically based freeze-thaw cycle representation in water quality modeling. Design of future nitrogen runoff reduction strategies should include careful assessment of effects that land management has on the freeze-thaw cycles to provide reliable projection of water quality under climate change.

Wang, Qianfeng↗

Understanding cloud droplet spectral dispersion effect using empirical and semi-analytical parameterizations in NCAR CAM5.3

Five parameterizations of cloud droplet spectral shape are implemented in a global climate model to investigate the dispersion effect and aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We design a series of experiments by modifying the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5.3 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5.3). We employ four empirical (Martin94, RLiu03, PengL03, Liu08) and one semi-analytical (LiuLi15) expressions for cloud droplet spectral shape parameters. Analysis focuses on the instantaneous differences in the simulated cloud microphysical properties and the comparison between model output and satellite data. The results show that RLiu03, PengL03 and LiuLi15 produce wider droplet spectrum and faster autoconversion rate, but Liu08 has a narrower droplet spectrum and slower autoconversion rate than the default parameterization (Martin94) in CAM5.3. Global dispersion effects caused by the five parameterizations modify the aerosol indirect effect by -10% (counteract) to 13% (strengthen). The simulated AIEs and dispersion effects exhibit noticeably spatial inhomogeneity. In the sensitive regions of AIE (Southeast Asia, North Pacific and west coast of South America), we decompose the response of shortwave cloud forcing to the change in droplet number for analysis. The varying dispersion effects can be explained by different responses of cloud properties in different spectral parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exposing Process‐Level Biases in a Global Cloud Permitting Model With ARM Observations

The emergence of global convective‐permitting models (GCPMs) represents a significant advancement in climate modeling, offering improved representation of deep convection and complex precipitation patterns. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) using its doubly periodic configuration (DP‐SCREAM) against large eddy simulations and modern observational data sets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. We introduce several new transitional cloud regime cases, such as the transition from shallow to deep convection and from stratocumulus to cumulus, as well as cold‐air outbreak scenarios. The results reveal both strengths and limitations of SCREAM, particularly in the accurate simulation of cloud transitions and midlevel convection, with varying degrees of sensitivity to horizontal and vertical resolution. Despite improvements at higher resolutions, key biases remain, including the abrupt transition from shallow to deep convection and the lack of congestus clouds. These findings underscore the need for further refinement in turbulence parameterizations and vertical grid resolution in GCPMs.

Bogenschutz, Peter A. [Lawrence Livermore National↗

Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy for crystalline samples containing initial strain

Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) is a mature and robust technique for the nondestructive characterization of the elastic properties of solids capable of providing the elastic constants of anisotropic crystalline solids. The traditional method is based on assuming that the solid is linear elastic and, therefore, obeys a linearized Hookean constitutive relationship (Hooke’s law). In this work, an alternative constitutive law is provided that allows for an initial strain or prestrain to be present stemming from residual stress. Then, the constitutive relationship is integrated into the RUS framework. The model is demonstrated using a realistic prestrain field obtained by simulating shot-peening processing of a polycrystalline Cu sample. The sensitivity of the resonances to the developed prestrain is established and discussed. This work allows researchers to consider the influence of initial strain or residual stress in their samples and the potential influence on accurate elastic constant estimates. The model also supports the potential of RUS for the nondestructive characterization of prestrain in materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

First fluctuation measurements using an Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer on DIII-D

A recent upgrade to the Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) on DIII-D has allowed for the first fluctuation measurements using an INPA to be taken during a neoclassical tearing mode (NTM). The INPA signal tracked the mode over 150 ms as the mode frequency dropped to zero, capturing both the NTM with poloidal and toroidal mode numbers $m/n=2/1$ and a $3/2$ mode at double the frequency. Analysis shows that the signals originate from charge exchange events near the edge of the plasma, and relative fluctuation amplitudes are greater than 25% for the duration of the NTM. Filtered signals show frequency beating patterns that are phase-space dependent. Simulated signal is dominated by prompt transport from the neutral beams to the INPA sightline, while the contribution from the slowing down distribution is significantly lower. Simulated measurements in the range of pitches that the diagnostic is sensitive to (0.5≤|v∥/v|≤ 0.75) show the signal is dominated by trapped orbits that pass through magnetic islands near the edge of the plasma. Calculations of expected fluctuation levels show that only direct interaction with the NTM can provide the strong relative fluctuation levels seen experimentally. The prompt nature of the orbits and thin radial layer found to contribute to synthetic signals suggest INPA passive data may be used to measure the perturbations of confined orbits on a single pass through a plasma instability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Measurements of Gamow-Teller transitions from 59 Co via the 59 Co ⁢(𝑡, 3 He +𝛾) charge-exchange reaction and its application to the stellar electron-capture rates

Electron-capture reactions on iron-group nuclei play a crucial role in the late stages of massive star evolution. Since stellar evolution simulations depend on accurate electron-capture rates—which are highly sensitive to the detailed Gamow-Teller (GT) strength distributions—reliable theoretical models are essential. However, experimental data on GT strength distributions are scarce. High-resolution measurements are therefore vital for benchmarking and improving these theoretical calculations. To provide high-resolution data on Gamow-Teller strength distributions of iron-group nuclei and to compare these results with theoretical calculations within this mass region. Differential cross sections for the 59 Co ⁢(𝑡, 3 He)⁢ 59 Fe charge-exchange reaction at 115 MeV/u were measured using the S800 spectrometer. Furthermore, to resolve individual levels that are not distinguishable in the S800 particle singles data, coincident 𝛾 rays from the 59 Fe residual nucleus were detected by using the Gamma-Ray Energy Tracking In-beam Nuclear Array 𝛾-ray tracking array. Here, the Gamow-Teller transition strength distribution from the ground state of 59 Co to 59 Fe was extracted up to an excitation energy of 10 MeV. Additionally, transition strengths for several low-lying states were determined from coincident 𝛾-ray measurements. Electron-capture rates calculated using the present data indicate that these low-lying states contribute significantly to the overall rates in relevant stellar environments. The experimental results show reasonable agreement with theoretical predictions based on both shell-model and projected shell-model calculations. High-resolution data on Gamow-Teller strength distributions—particularly for individual low-lying states—are essential for accurately determining electron-capture rates in iron-group nuclei. Coincident 𝛾-ray measurements provide a powerful tool for obtaining such detailed information. While the present work demonstrates that shell-model calculations successfully reproduce the experimental results, such comparisons are scarce and more experimental data are desirable.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

Probing early-time longitudinal dynamics with the Λ hyperon's spin polarization in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Here, we systematically study the hyperon global polarization's sensitivity to the collision systems' initial longitudinal flow velocity in hydrodynamic simulations. By explicitly imposing local energy-momentum conservation when mapping the initial collision geometry to macroscopic hydrodynamic fields, we study the evolution of systems' orbital angular momentum (OAM) and fluid vorticity. We find that a simultaneous description of the $\Lambda$ hyperons' global polarization and the slope of pion's directed flow can strongly constrain the size of longitudinal flow at the beginning of hydrodynamic evolution. We extract the size of the initial longitudinal flow and the fraction of orbital angular momentum in the produced QGP fluid as a function of collision energy with the STAR measurements in the RHIC Beam Energy Scan program. We find that there is about 100-200 $\hbar$ OAM that remains in the mid-rapidity fluid at the beginning of hydrodynamic evolution. We further exam the effects of different hydrodynamic gradients on the spin polarization of $\Lambda$ and $\bar{\Lambda}$. The gradients of $\mu_B/T$ can change the ordering between $\Lambda$'s and $\bar{\Lambda}$'s polarization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact and mitigation of polarized extragalactic foregrounds on Bayesian cosmic microwave background lensing

Future low-noise cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements from e.g., CMB-S4 will be polarization dominated, rather than temperature dominated. In this new regime, statistically optimal lensing reconstructions outperform the standard quadratic estimator, but their sensitivity to extragalactic polarized foregrounds has not been quantified. Using realistic simulations of polarized radio and infrared point sources, we show for the first time that optimal Bayesian lensing from a CMB-S4-like experiment is insensitive to the expected level of polarized extragalactic foregrounds after masking, as long as an accurate foreground power spectrum is included in the analysis. For more futuristic experiments where these foregrounds could cause a detectable bias, we propose a new method to jointly fit for lensing and the Poisson foregrounds, generalizing the bias hardening from the standard quadratic estimator to Bayesian lensing.

cosmic microwave background↗