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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO)

Inherent in interplanetary space travel are unprecedented challenges that could threaten mission success and negatively impact crew health and performance. Return to definitive care is essentially untenable and resources will be constrained with practically no re-supply capability. Access to ground-based medical expertise will be significantly delayed under nominal conditions with exacerbation during conjunction or prolonged dust storms. Taken together, these challenges necessitate the development of a progressively autonomous medical operational support system to assist the crew medical officer (CMO). While support from ground based medical experts will remain indispensable for pre-mission planning, the approach to management of acute/emergent medical contingencies will require a gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. To progressively enable EIMO, a series of meetings were convened with subject matter experts from within NASA, academia and industry to facilitate mapping of the path to support autonomous medical operations. Topics explored in these meetings included the scope of data (storage capacity, usage, transmission rate and bandwidth, computing capacity), CMO training, supply and resource management and task load balance. Recommendations from these meetings will inform the EIMO Concept of Operations and definition of the associated requirements culminating in updates to the NASA 3001 standards. The EIMO project team will work with stakeholders to conceptualize a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assist the CMO in response to medical contingencies when terrestrial support is delayed or otherwise unavailable. The CDSS will be a system of systems that will utilize data from numerous input vectors. Successful deployment of the CDSS will facilitate medical decision making while decreasing the cognitive load leading to an improvement in task load balancing. Additional benefits of the envisioned CDSS include assistance with inventory management, locating resources, storage/retrieval of medical records, highlighting trends in recorded data, in addition to providing a consult for diagnosis and treatment. More advanced features might include passive monitoring to identify early warning signs of behavioral or medical anomalies to possibly pre-empt onset of conditions that would compromise crew health and performance.

Benjamin Easter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Updraft Modeling Bias Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) habitats may overlap with wind energy development in some regions of the US. Eagles, and similar soaring bird species, are therefore at risk of collision with wind turbines when flying through wind farms. Recently developed behavioral modeling approaches can predict the presence of eagles near turbines within the rotor-swept layer but require reliable prediction of atmospheric flowfield conditions. In particular, the vertical component of the wind speed dictates a soaring bird's ability to maintain or gain altitude, since they rely on updrafts to subsidize their flight. In this work, we investigate the atmospheric conditions around a wind farm in complex terrain and compare methods for atmospheric characterization. We use computational fluid dynamics (specifically, large-eddy simulations, or LES) to simulate the atmospheric boundary layer over a region encompassing multiple wind farms with high temporal and spatial resolution (seconds and 10's of meters, respectively). We compare traditional non-simulation-based methods of determining the orographic updraft potential based on wind direction, terrain slope and aspect, with the flowfields from LES that include both orographic updrafts alone and combined thermal and orographic updrafts. Preliminary analysis suggests that although the model captures the horizontal pattern of vertical updrafts, their magnitude can be improved with information about the surface heat flux, which is usually correlated with time of the day. Within our study region, we found that the low-fidelity model may over- or underestimate updraft potential by up to 400% at 80 m AGL, depending on local orographic features. This can result in an inaccurate representation of eagle presence and, consequently, risk. Another important finding is that flowfield time-averaging can hide important details about the flight environment, including how thermally generated flow structures within the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g., convective rolls and/or cells) may be important drivers of eagle flight.

atmospheric turbulence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pseudomonas aeruginosa : One Health approach to deciphering hidden relationships in Northern Portugal

Abstract Aims Antimicrobial resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa represents a major global challenge in public and veterinary health, particularly from a One Health perspective. This study aimed to investigate antimicrobial resistance, the presence of virulence genes, and the genetic diversity of P. aeruginosa isolates from diverse sources. Methods and results The study utilized antimicrobial susceptibility testing, genomic analysis for resistance and virulence genes, and multilocus sequence typing to characterize a total of 737 P. aeruginosa isolates that were collected from humans, domestic animals, and aquatic environments in Northern Portugal. Antimicrobial resistance profiles were analyzed, and genomic approaches were employed to detect resistance and virulence genes. The study found a high prevalence of multidrug-resistant isolates, including high-risk clones such as ST244 and ST446, particularly in hospital sources and wastewater treatment plants. Key genes associated with resistance and virulence, including efflux pumps (e.g. MexA and MexB) and secretion systems (T3SS and T6SS), were identified. Conclusions This work highlights the intricate dynamics of multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa across interconnected ecosystems in Northern Portugal. It underscores the importance of genomic studies in revealing the mechanisms of resistance and virulence, contributing to the broader understanding of resistance dynamics and informing future mitigation strategies.

de Sousa, Telma↗

DOE OSTI2025

COnfirmation using Gamma-ray Non-Imaging Zero-knowledge ANti-mask Time-encoding (COGNIZANT) Final Summary Report

In potential future arms reduction treaties in which the numbers of nuclear warheads may approach small numbers, using delivery systems as a proxy for the warheads themselves may be insufficient. Therefore, a technical means of verifying the presence of a nuclear warhead may become necessary. Verifying that a declared item actually is a warhead is technically challenging within a verification regime: providing assurance to the monitoring party that a presented item is a warhead while protecting sensitive information about that warhead may be required. It is generally believed that strong assurance will require the confirmation of key attributes that may reveal closely-guarded critical design information. This provides high confidence to the monitoring party, but presents a risk of information loss to the host. A verification system must overcome this hurdle. Over the last several decades, systems have been developed that balance host and monitoring partner needs by using sensitive information to confirm treaty accountable items (TAI) as warheads while sequestering that information behind an information barrier (1). These are designed to meet the needs of the host but places the onus on the monitor to authenticate the hardware, firmware, and software. Authentication requires that the monitor confirm that all components of the system have not been modified and work as intended. In 2014, Glaser et al. proposed applying the concept of “zero knowledge protocols” (ZKP) from the field of cryptography to the problem of warhead verification (2). In mathematical cryptography, ZKP is accomplished by challenging one party to solve a problem that is only possible if that party possesses the information being authenticated. After repeated challenges, the party provides confidence that it possesses this information without revealing any details about the information itself. Systems have been in development based on this idea at both Princeton and MIT (2) (3) (4). The final measurement results produced by these systems can be viewed by both the host and the monitoring party without the worry of revealing sensitive information. However, in both of these physical implementations, there remains an information barrier within the system. The need for a digital information barrier to protect a measurement result is eliminated, but it has been replaced with the need to sequester physical components of the system, potentially obfuscating the measurement process itself. Both implementations physically insert information into the system that requires protection to prevent undesired disclosure of sensitive information: in the Princeton method, one must physically load the complement of the expected image of a true warhead into the system, and in the MIT technique, one loads a collection of spectator foils whose thicknesses physically encrypt a measured spectrum. This complicates authentication of the hardware and measurement process. The CONFIDANTE/COGNIZANT concept developed in this project do not load sensitive information into the system at any time, and could therefore open the possibility of allowing the inspector to not only view the final data but also the measurement as it is being performed and all associated equipment.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Evidence Base for Human Spaceflight Risks in Wikipedia

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is focused on understanding and mitigating thirty two risks to crew health and performance in exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The HRP has developed an evidence report for each of the risks. Most evidence reports are a brief review article describing the evidence related to a specified risk, written at a level appropriate for the scientifically educated, non‐specialist reader. Each evidence report captured the current state of knowledge from both research and operations. Two limitations of the evidence reports have become apparent: 1) they are updated infrequently and 2) they do not take full advantage of the expertise available in other space agencies and in related fields of terrestrial research. Therefore, the HRP is experimenting with the use of Wikipedia articles as a repository for evidence. Wikipedia's accessibility to the international space flight community and researchers in related terrestrial fields creates the opportunity to generate a more timely and comprehensive evidence base. Initial Wikipedia articles were populated for seven risks using a subset of the information in the HRP‐approved evidence reports: Fatigue and Sleep Loss, Treating An Ill or Injured Crew Member, Radiation Carcinogenesis, Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure, Renal Stone Formation, Team Cohesion, and Intervertebral Disc Damage. Since the initial articles were created, there have been additions to these Wikipedia articles, including content from sources outside the HRP, and editorial changes to the pages. We will report on the nature of the contributions made after the initial articles were created, the comprehensiveness of the resulting Wikipedia articles, and the effort required to maintain quality control of the content. The Wikipedia approach will also be compared to wiki efforts that exert more traditional editorial control of content prior to posting.

Kundrot, Craig↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cancer genomics predicts disease relapse and therapeutic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy of hormone sensitive breast cancers

Several studies provide insight into the landscape of breast cancer genomics with the genomic characterization of tumors offering exceptional opportunities in defining therapies tailored to the patient’s specific need. However, translating genomic data into personalized treatment regimens has been hampered partly due to uncertainties in deviating from guideline based clinical protocols. Here we report a genomic approach to predict favorable outcome to treatment responses thus enabling personalized medicine in the selection of specific treatment regimens. The genomic data were divided into a training set of N = 835 cases and a validation set consisting of 1315 hormone sensitive, 634 triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and 1365 breast cancer patients with information on neoadjuvant chemotherapy responses. Patients were selected by the following criteria: estrogen receptor (ER) status, lymph node invasion, recurrence free survival. The k-means classification algorithm delineated clusters with low- and high- expression of genes related to recurrence of disease; a multivariate Cox’s proportional hazard model defined recurrence risk for disease. Classifier genes were validated by Immunohistochemistry (IHC) using tissue microarray sections containing both normal and cancerous tissues and by evaluating findings deposited in the human protein atlas repository. Based on the leave-on-out cross validation procedure of 4 independent data sets we identified 51-genes associated with disease relapse and selected 10, i.e. TOP2A, AURKA, CKS2, CCNB2, CDK1 SLC19A1, E2F8, E2F1, PRC1, KIF11 for in depth validation. Expression of the mechanistically linked disease regulated genes significantly correlated with recurrence free survival among ER-positive and triple negative breast cancer patients and was independent of age, tumor size, histological grade and node status. Importantly, the classifier genes predicted pathological complete responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (P < 0.001) with high expression of these genes being associated with an improved therapeutic response toward two different anthracycline-taxane regimens; thus, highlighting the prospective for precision medicine. Our study demonstrates the potential of classifier genes to predict risk for disease relapse and treatment response to chemotherapies. The classifier genes enable rational selection of patients who benefit best from a given chemotherapy thus providing the best possible care. The findings encourage independent clinical validation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cybersecurity Resiliency of Marine Renewable Energy Systems-Part 1: Identifying Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities and Determining Risk

Technology innovation, market demand, and the potential impacts of a changing climate are driving the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry to develop market-ready systems to provide low-carbon electricity for emerging, off-grid markets. The advanced operational and information technology devices used in MRE systems create a pathway for a cyber threat actor to gain unauthorized access to data or disrupt operation. To improve the resiliency of MRE systems as a predictable, affordable, and reliable source of energy from oceans and rivers, guidance was developed for an end users' organization that describes a framework for identifying and managing cybersecurity risk. The development of the cybersecurity guidance is based on standards described in the Risk Management Framework and Cybersecurity Framework developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This paper is the first of a two-part series that describes an approach to determine the cybersecurity risk for MRE systems based on assessing potential cyber threats, identifying vulnerabilities (people, processes, and technology, including physical and operational environment), and evaluating the consequences a cyberattack would have on operation of the MRE system and impact on end users' mission and business objectives. MRE developers and stakeholders can use this approach to assess their current cybersecurity risk posture to incorporate appropriate cybersecurity controls to reduce the consequences and impacts from a cyberattack on MRE systems. This approach can be refined further as MRE systems are deployed and operational configurations are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Space Program Advocacy Can Distort Project Management and Damage Systems Engineering

Over-optimistic project advocacy often causes exaggerated performance claims and underestimated costs and schedules. This can distort project management and damage systems engineering. NASA projects such as the space shuttle and Hubble are extreme examples. NASA's spectacular success in the Apollo moon landings seems to have produced overconfidence and carelessness, but also to have gained tolerance for unrealistic claims and forgiveness when they were proven wrong. Apollo risk analysis predicted many astronaut fatalities. This was believed but was potentially damaging to the Apollo program, so risk analysis was discontinued. The moon landings beat bad odds because Apollo obsessively reduced risk. Its success seemed to confirm that risk analysis was unreasonably pessimistic and that risk could be overcome by good engineering. This understanding caused risk to be increased during space shuttle engineering and led to an unnecessarily dangerous approach. The shuttle design placed a fragile spacecraft next to the fuel tanks and failed to provide crew escape or launch abort. These design decisions directly caused the Challenger and Columbia tragedies. After Challenger, risk analysis was re-established. The current rocket and capsule design does consider risk and the result strongly resembles Apollo. Apollo advocacy led NASA to abandon risk analysis and this was ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies. Excessive advocacy that distorts risk, cost, and schedule could be prevented in an ideal organization that used systems engineering to make rational and fair decisions. However, most real organizations accommodate human and group needs using informal methods often described as "the system." Humans have biases, use innate decision making heuristics, instinctively rely on "gut feel," and establish deviant groups through groupthink. Expecting organizations to become totally rational is impractical, but specific problems such as neglecting risk and underestimating cost and schedule can be directly challenged with some hope of success.

Jones, Harry W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Decontamination Evolution and Revolution - 20349

Decontamination, one of the oldest practices in the nuclear industry, is about to change. While no single approach to decontamination is appropriate in all situations, decontamination of highly contaminated surfaces is historically viewed as difficult and/or marginally effective and fixatives and strippable coatings are often called on to manage time sensitive contamination control issues. The deferral of proper decontamination can lead to accumulated concentrations of radioactive material increasing the risk of cross-contamination of workers and equipment while also increasing radiation levels, which further discourages decontamination. The results of the subject testing demonstrate that superior decontamination factors are readily achievable and the ALARA benefit of decontamination is viable through advanced decontamination technologies in conjunction with innovative application techniques. The collateral benefits will save countless radiological man-hours and personnel radiological exposure. The appropriate use of radiological decontamination techniques can prevent or limit the adverse effects of highly radioactive contamination in the work area. High levels of radiological contamination are typically associated with some of the most physically demanding work in the nuclear industry. Additionally, working in highly contaminated environments increases the risk of exposure to elevated levels of airborne radioactivity and radiation from the source term of the contamination, particularly in hard to reach areas or complex equipment. Veolia's Alaron Nuclear Services (Alaron), a fully integrated nuclear facility, has provided the nuclear industry waste treatment, consolidation, repackaging, and broad decontamination services for almost 35 years. In looking at solutions for its customers, as well as for their own facility, Alaron has recently collaborated with Environmental Alternatives, Inc. (EAI), which has provided innovative solutions addressing difficult nuclear decontamination and industrial cleaning challenges since 1989. This broad range of experience along with the products to support the work created an ideal partner for Alaron's needs at their facility. The benefits of collaboration were immediately recognizable to the management of both companies although the decontamination challenge was significant. Due to the nature of the services offered, contamination at the Alaron facility is routine. The recent decontamination experience at Alaron utilized an innovative surfactant process that quickly produces remarkably higher decontamination factors for both removable surface contamination and fixed contamination. Considering the time to decontaminate areas historically designated for high radiological hazard work, the results from this decontamination effort not only reduced contamination levels but also significantly lowered exposure rates in the working environment. The relative ease with which the surfactant is applied, combined with extraordinary decontamination test results, indicates the potential to alter current radiological work processes in a way that improves worker comfort, and removes radiological engineering barriers, allowing Alaron to complete complex radiological tasks more efficiently and effectively. In a series of two simple applications of the decontamination agent to contaminated high bay vertical surfaces, as well as a variety of horizontal and vertical surfaces with variable porousness and surface sealants, there was an overall reduction in removable contamination of approximately 73% with a reduction in area dose of approximately 93%. The results indicate additional reduction in fixed contamination with application of the surfactant. These values are much higher than experienced with more traditional decontamination agents. In conjunction with demonstrating EAI's surfactant on room surfaces, additional studies were conducted on complex geometry equipment including waste processing equipment, tools, and heavily contaminated parts normally handled from Alaron's customers. Evaluations were made with straight application of EAI's surfactant as well as adding additional techniques to the treatment which afforded revolutionary improvements in the levels of contamination removed. Successful decontamination with up to 95% reduction in removable contamination with just one application were demonstrated in several of the trials. This paper outlines the planned approach to use this technology, the variety of surfaces and equipment treated, and the results of the decontamination efforts. Furthermore, this paper discusses options for pretreatment of certain heavily contaminated equipment prior to employees handling and/or working with the equipment. The potential for dose saving and the reduced risk of cross-contamination with the added benefit of lower PPE requirements, produces an enormous potential for cost and time savings. Attendees will benefit from Alaron's experiences and more fully understand the capabilities of EAI's decontamination process. With the variety of contamination agents, forms and surfaces on which the technology was demonstrated, the information will be valuable to a broad cross-section of industry users. The significance of this report demonstrates superior decontamination factors are achievable utilizing the next evolution of decontamination technology and that the ALARA benefits of decontamination are available through advanced and modern decontamination efforts. The collateral benefits will save countless radiological man-hours and valuable personnel radiological exposure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Digital Engineering Vision for DOME: Facilitating Design, Deployment, and Operations [Poster]

DOME is a planned microreactor test facility at INL’s Materials and Fuels Complex. It is a complex system with several interdependent sub-systems such as the reactor (up to 20 MWth), radioactive confinement, temperature and pressure regulation system, ventilation system, etc. The engineering design process for such a system traditionally involves several documents from various sources and the system information is scattered across these documents. Digital engineering represents a paradigm shift through which systems are designed using digital models and integrated data. The digital engineering vision for DOME utilizes a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach. The system architecture, physical components, control logic, and verification experiments are all designed using MathWorks MATLAB and Simulink. This hierarchical model can combine data from multiple sources at various levels of abstraction. It can be used to simulate the facility’s operations and to test the system using different sets of parameters. Its capabilities can be expanded by interfacing it with high-fidelity multi-physics models, risk analysis tools, etc. The same model can evolve into a digital twin that can monitor operations and conduct predictive analysis using real-time sensor data from the facility. The eventual goal of this effort is to transform the end-to-end engineering of nuclear facilities in every phase of their lifecycle, including design, deployment, and operations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

SinhaRoy_TechPresentation_2024 [Slides]

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research Needs and Activities

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have benefitted the safe operation of the U.S. reactor fleet over many decades. Risk insights from these PRAs have provided information from many different perspectives, from what is most important to maintain at a facility to a better understanding of how to address new information regarding safety issues. The methods and tools that have supported the creation and enhancement of PRA models were established through multiple decades of research, from the 1970s starting with the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study through comprehensive plant-specific models in use today. Because PRA models are being used to support such a diverse array of plant decisions, they are now being applied to analyze an increasing number and diverse set of aspects of the plant, which are well beyond the initial efforts envisioned in the 1970s. These demands on PRA methods and tools have led to challenges in terms of further expansion of the use of PRA and raised the potential for future research into how to address these challenges to ensure continued nuclear safety. In addition to the PRA needs, the domain of computer science has led to advances in computational approaches that may serve to help nuclear power plant PRA applications. These newer technologies have great potential to improve the effectiveness and economics of PRA and are being considered for exploration of potential benefits to the PRA and nuclear-power communities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project: Integrative Modeling Approach

A wide range of computational models and analyses have been applied to spaceflight risk assessment and countermeasure development. The benefits of using computational modeling to enhance Human Research Program (HRP) goals include the ability to mathematically represent physiological systems, integrate multiple, discrete experimental measures, span multiple temporal and spatial scales, determine important factors within the system and provide estimates of unmeasurable quantities. In the area of application, computational models provide a means of developing simulations to test hypotheses, determining key factors of the system to aid experimental design and bridging gaps in sparse data by mathematically simulating large populations. Specifically, computational models and their supporting analysis tools have the proven potential to integrate analyses of risk factors to enhance mission planning and preparation capabilities and to inform spacecraft design and countermeasure development. Appropriately applied, computational models may allow intelligent, unbiased physiological parameter assessment to enable hypothesis testing and model based design of experiments. HRP recently formed the Computational Modeling Project (CMP), managed out of Glenn Research Center, as a cross-cutting activity aimed at leveraging the growing power and acceptance of computational modeling in informing clinical, physiological, and biological studies. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities in implementing various forms of computational models in support of the HRPs path to risk reduction.

biomechanics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗