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At least 721 records · Page 40

Informing Cybersecurity Decisions With the Value-at-Risk Framework

Security at every site is critical to making hydropower a strong contributor to the country's grid, but with ongoing development and expanding capabilities, the diversity of the existing hydropower fleet makes across-the-board investment decisions difficult. The threat of cyberattacks naturally increases as the interconnection of Information Technology and Operational Technology networks broadens. Hydropower plants require custom analyses that are specific to the unique challenges and characteristics of any given facility. Facilities, however, often do not have the necessary resources for managers to make informed decisions on investments based on assessed capabilities and risks.

cybersecurity↗

Enabling Large-Scale Condensed-Phase Hybrid Density Functional Theory Based Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics. 1. Theory, Algorithm, and Performance

By including a fraction of exact exchange (EXX), hybrid functionals reduce the self-interaction error in semilocal density functional theory (DFT) and thereby furnish a more accurate and reliable description of the underlying electronic structure in systems throughout biology, chemistry, physics, and materials science. However, the high computational cost associated with the evaluation of all required EXX quantities has limited the applicability of hybrid DFT in the treatment of large molecules and complex condensed-phase materials. To overcome this limitation, we describe a linear-scaling approach that utilizes a local representation of the occupied orbitals (e.g., maximally localized Wannier functions (MLWFs)) to exploit the sparsity in the real-space evaluation of the quantum mechanical exchange interaction in finite-gap systems. In this work, we present a detailed description of the theoretical and algorithmic advances required to perform MLWF-based ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of large-scale condensed-phase systems of interest at the hybrid DFT level. We focus our theoretical discussion on the integration of this approach into the framework of Car–Parrinello AIMD, and highlight the central role played by the MLWF-product potential (i.e., the solution of Poisson’s equation for each corresponding MLWF-product density) in the evaluation of the EXX energy and wave function forces. We then provide a comprehensive description of the exx algorithm implemented in the open-source Quantum ESPRESSO program, which employs a hybrid MPI/OpenMP parallelization scheme to efficiently utilize the high-performance computing (HPC) resources available on current- and next-generation supercomputer architectures. Furthermore, this is followed by a critical assessment of the accuracy and parallel performance (e.g., strong and weak scaling) of this approach when AIMD simulations of liquid water are performed in the canonical (NVT) ensemble. With access to HPC resources, we demonstrate that exx enables hybrid DFT-based AIMD simulations of condensed-phase systems containing 500–1000 atoms (e.g., (H₂O)₂₅₆) with a wall time cost that is comparable to that of semilocal DFT. In doing so, exx takes us one step closer to routinely performing AIMD simulations of complex and large-scale condensed-phase systems for sufficiently long time scales at the hybrid DFT level of theory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic security assessment of systems powered only by grid-forming power plants with uncertain dispatch using polynomial vectors

A modern challenge in power engineering is to perform the dynamic security assessment (DSA) of grids that are 100% powered by inverter-based resources (IBRs). Addressing this challenge is difficult because: (i) the dispatch of IBRs can be uncertain as a result of the variability of renewable resources and (ii) they have hard current control limits that cannot be neglected, contrasting synchronous machines. To address this problem, this paper sets forth a framework to conduct DSA of bulk power systems that are 100% powered by grid-forming IBRs. Furthermore, the framework considers that IBR operational conditions are unknown but bounded by a zonotope which is also expressed as a polynomial vector for uncertainty propagation via Dormand–Prince integration. The framework is applied to modified versions of the WSCC 9-bus and IEEE 39-bus grids.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable Electricity

Renewable electricity generation will need to be rapidly scaled to address climate change and other environmental challenges. Doing so effectively will require an understanding of resource availability. We review estimates for renewable electricity of the global technical potential, defined as the amount of electricity that could be produced with current technologies when accounting for geographical and technical limitations as well as conversion efficiencies; economic potential, which also includes cost; and feasible potential, which accounts for societal and environmental constraints. We consider utility-scale and rooftop solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind, hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean (wave, tidal, ocean thermal energy conversion, and salinity gradient energy) technologies. We find that the reported technical potential for each energy resource ranges over several orders of magnitude across and often within technologies. Therefore, we also discuss the main factors explaining why authors find such different results. According to this review and on the basis of the most robust studies, we find that technical potentials for utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind are above 100 PWh/year. Hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean thermal energy conversion have technical potentials above 10 PWh/year. Rooftop solar photovoltaic, wave, and tidal have technical potentials above 1 PWh/year. Salinity gradient has a technical potential above 0.1 PWh/year. The literature assessing the global economic potential of renewables, which considers the cost of each renewable resource, shows that the economic potential is higher than current and near-future electricity demand. Fewer studies have calculated the global feasible potential, which considers societal and environmental constraints. While these ranges are useful for assessing the magnitude of available energy sources, they may omit challenges for large-scale renewable portfolios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Potential for Transactive Energy to Improve the Provisioning of Grid Services from Batteries

This study assessed the degree to which transactive energy systems could help reduce or remove barriers to the deployment of battery energy storage, and realize the full potential of battery resources to supply needed services to the grid and fairly compensate various types of battery owners. To enable this assessment, typical battery deployments were characterized, along with energy markets, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order rulings and implementations, grid services, and current deployment barriers. Finally, this study analyzed the value that accrues to batteries supplying today’s grid services as a function of the participation models associated with three primary types of battery ownership: merchant-owned transmission-connected batteries; utility-owned distribution-connected batteries; and customer-owned behind-the-meter batteries. This provided both quantitative and qualitative assessments comparing opportunities for battery storage in business-as-usual and transactive energy scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal Power System Black start using Inverter-Based Generation

Power system black start readiness is part of the system planning. Utility planners perform periodic studies to assess if their power system is capable of total restoration following a black out. Hydro and diesel generators are the most commonly used black start capable resources by power utilities. However, with increasing penetration of solar generation, inverter-based resources can be considered to provide black start capability. Since the solar inverters can be located at multiple locations throughout the power system, and in view of their unique characteristics, an optimal real-time capable plan is helpful for system operators for faster black start. Black start optimization is a multi stage mixed-integer non-linear optimization which is extremely hard to solve. In this paper, we propose an optimal black start methodology that is easier to solve and scalable in real-time. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on two test systems and illustrate how inverter-based resources can contribute and improve power system restoration.

power system restoration, blackstart, Inverter-bas↗

Technoeconomic assessment of hydrogen cogeneration via high temperature steam electrolysis with a light-water reactor

Increased electricity production from renewable energy resources, coupled with low natural gas (NG) prices, has caused existing light-water reactors (LWRs) to experience diminishing returns from the electricity market. This reduction in revenue is forcing LWRs to consider alternative revenue streams, such as introduction hydrogen production or desalination, to remain profitable. This paper performs a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) regarding the viability of retrofitting existing pressurized-water reactors (PWRs) to produce green hydrogen (H 2 ) via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). Such an integration would allow nuclear facilities to expand into additional markets that may be more profitable in the long term and eliminate CO 2 emissions from the hydrogen production process. Here, to accommodate such an integration, a detailed single market levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and multimarket analyses were conducted of HTSE process operation, requirements, costing, and flexibility. Alongside this costing analysis, market analyses were conducted on the electric and hydrogen markets in the PJM interconnect. Utilizing a novel stochastic, dispatch optimization approach results suggest that a positive gain is achievable, and by operating in multiple markets, the nuclear facility can avoid the sale of electricity during times of low electricity market pricing, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on the high electricity market pricing. It should be noted that the analysis conducted is a differential cash flow analysis and, as such, does not present profit levels. LCOH analysis results demonstrate the potential exists to produce hydrogen at a cost as low as $1.20/kg. This price is lower than traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) allowing nuclear based hydrogen production to disrupt the existing hydrogen production market.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K2O, LaBr3, KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga2O3, NaNO2, Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated assuming 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradioactive chemical

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface soil impacts were calculated with the computer program Mixing-Cell Model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program Mixing-Cell Model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Growth modeling to evaluate alternative cultivation strategies to enhance national microalgal biomass production

In this paper, we present a model-based assessment of alternative cultivation strategies on algal biomass production within the conterminous United States. Our assessment focuses on two basic cultivation strategies: 1) seasonal rotation of three representative freshwater algal strains that are well suited for warm weather, cold weather, and all-season diverse weather conditions, respectively; and 2) variation between three open pond water depths (15cm, 20cm, and 25cm). The enhanced Biomass Assessment Tool (BAT) is applied on a site-specific, hourly basis at 5,832 North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 1/8° meteorological model grid cells over a 30-year period (1980-2009) to evaluate the operational strategies. Recognizing that resource management decisions may also consider scales beyond the individual site, we also conduct a regional assessment of focused on 7 representative climate zones in the conterminous United States. Results demonstrate that the spatial variability of algal productivity is largely affected by the strain-specific growth response to light and temperature that vary significantly by climate zone and latitude. Therefore, with a limited set of alternative cultivation strategies, the BAT identified the best performing combination of cultivation strategies on a site-specific basis that considerably enhances national annual biomass productivity. Specifically, the appropriate choice of seasonal strain rotation is able to significantly dampen climate-driven seasonal and spatial variability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An assessment of power flexibility from commercial building cooling systems in the United States

Understanding varying characteristics and aggregate potential of power flexibility from different building types considering regional diversity is critically important to actively engaging building resources in future eco-friendly, low-cost, and sustainable power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive characteristics analysis and potential assessment of the power flexibility from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads in commercial buildings in the U.S. using a simulation-based method. In this method, commercial buildings are first grouped by building types and climate regions. The U.S. Department of Energy Commercial Prototype Building Models are used to represent an average building in each group and are simulated to characterize corresponding power flexibility. Based on building survey data, the number of commercial buildings in each group is estimated and used to calculate aggregate power flexibility. It is found that HVAC loads in commercial buildings offer more flexibility for increasing power consumption than for decreasing it. The power consumption of commercial buildings in the U.S. can be increased by 46 GW and decreased by 40 GW on peak summer days. Among all commercial building types, standalone retail buildings provide the most absolute flexibility while the medium office buildings have the most flexibility as a percentage of the rated power consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Resource Characterization for Community Scale Tidal Instream Energy in Maine [Abstract]

Coastal and island communities in Maine are seeking solutions to increase the resiliency of their electrical grid while also reducing their carbon footprint. Unfortunately, many community scale tidal resources identified on the Maine coast have not been rigorously evaluated; previous studies identified numerous hot spots but left many of them unevaluated or under evaluated (e.g., only power density was assessed in many cases). The primary objective of this TEAMER project is to evaluate selected community scale tidal instream resources to demonstrate their potential for contributing to the renewable energy needs of nearby coastal communities. The methods developed in this study will enable the total community scale tidal instream energy resource along the Maine coast to be evaluated in follow-on studies. The study will also enable turbine developers to understand how to scale and optimize their devices for deployment in turbine farms at community scale sites. Data from the study will be shared publicly through MHKDR or relevant community websites.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Quantifying System Strength From Grid-Forming Resources Using Frequency Scan Approach: Preprint

Current industry practices for quantifying the system strength contribution from grid-forming (GFM) resources to ensure stability of power systems dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs) are primarily based on iterative electromagnetic transient (EMT) time-domain simulation studies. While feasible, these approaches are resource-intensive, lack scalability and intuition, and might not evaluate the system strength contribution over the entire frequency range of interest. This paper introduces a novel, frequency-domain approach to quantify system strength support provided by a GFM resource using frequency scans. The proposed method uses transfer functions from the grid voltage magnitude (V) and phase (?), respectively, to the reactive (Q) and active power (P) output of a GFM resource for quantifying its contribution to system strength. These transfer functions provide a direct measure of the ability of a GFM resource to behave as a stiff voltage source behind a reactance over a specified frequency range, enabling robust quantification of its system strength contribution. The key innovation of this work is the development of a frequency domain system strength metric called the dynamic short-circuit ratio (dSCR) that is suitable for IBR-dominated power systems and is directly related with the familiar short circuit ratio (SCR) metric. The new metric, dSCR, enables the assessment of system strength contributions from both synchronous machines and converter-based GFM resources using a unified benchmark, which is not possible with the traditional SCR metric. The paper also demonstrates how impedance scans could identify if an unstable condition observed during weak grid conditions is a result of the lack active or reactive power support or both. By leveraging the proposed frequency-domain dSCR metric for quantifying system strength contribution from GFM IBRs, the paper demonstrates targeted mitigation strategies for weak grid instabilities without resorting to repeated, time-consuming time-domain simulations. The result is a scalable and efficient approach to remediate stability challenges in power systems with high shares of IBRs and accelerating the integration of GFM technologies for system strength support in power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: Preprint

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Grid Strength Analysis Tool (GSAT) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the GSAT software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗