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An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate the potential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sector in fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service using propellant extracted from lunar regolith.
Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.
Municipal wastewater contains valuable resources including water, energy, and nutrients that often enter and leave wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) without being captured. Currently, plants are increasingly seeking to recover resources and reuse them in a sustainable way. Therefore, the purpose of this project was to assess the potential for recovery and reuse of water and products from municipal wastewater treatment plants across the United States and to examine how this potential varies by region. To accomplish this, three main tasks were set: first, to characterize wastewater treatment plants; second, to characterize technologies and pathways used to recover energy, nutrients, and water from treatment plants; third, to assess the demand for reclaimed resources and products at a regional level by performing spatial analysis. These three tasks were then synthesized to present key findings in this report and a geospatial dataset with the hope of guiding the increased use of resource recovery technologies in the U.S.
Final report of the GoMCarb Partnership's scientific and technical results.
Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database (consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources), dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite, its constituent parts and the plans for when it will deploy as an operational product, currently scheduled for the end of FY22. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the ability to cluster medical resources into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different DRMs, and different crew complements, and the ability to specify mission segments as periods of time assigned to one or more members of the crew during which unique mission events occur (e.g., extravehicular activities, surface operations, gravity well adaptations, etc.). IMPACT is gearing up for its verification and validation phase to compile the data package necessary for a successful Transition to Operations (TtO), per the guidance in NPR 8900.1B .
In order to enable the future of long-duration deep space exploration we must confront the uncertainty in medical risk. Limitations of communication, resupply, and evacuation in deep space will require a high degree of crew autonomy and accurate risk assessment will be critical to ensure adequate crew training and medical system design. To address this, NASA’s Human Research Program Exploration Medical Capability Element has developed the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces Tool (IMPACT). IMPACT is a suite of tools that can provide evidence-based, data-driven trade space assessments between available medical resources in the mass- and volume-constrained environment of a deep space exploration vehicle. In the current model, medical conditions either can or cannot be treated based on the availability of medical system resources and equipment. However, medical outcomes often depend just as much on the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA) of the provider operating the system. This paper presents a method for modeling and quantifying the effect of medical officer KSA on medically relevant mission risk outcomes during spaceflight.
The STARFIRE hub leverages foundational science and technology (S&T) research and integrated plant modeling tools to advance Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE). S&T breakthroughs achieved in each thrust are incorporated into an integrated modeling tool to assess and prioritize remaining gaps to bridge for IFE to become viable. Scientific highlights span high-gain target design, diode-pumped solid-state lasers, and innovative target manufacturing. Key highlights include the investigation of shock propagation through various foam structures among other limiting factors of compression of IFE target, exploration of novel 3D printing techniques such as light-sheet additive manufacturing for 2-photon polymerization foams, and diode-pumped solid-state laser architectures required for several IFE approaches. In addition, the STARFIRE team has established two public-private working groups to address laser diode supply chain issues and test advanced laser diode configurations. Finally, a lite version of the integrated modeling tool has been developed to facilitate outreach and engage with private companies. STARFIRE’s management structure has been designed to ensure agile resource allocation, robust performance assessment, and alignment with the broader fusion energy mission. STARFIRE’s breakthroughs are disseminated to the community via reports, presentations, and publications, while agreements with private companies are set in place to protect proprietary information.
Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.
This report presents a summary of the soil interim measures (IM) implementation activities that occurred from January 23 through June 6, 2023, at the Q6 Radar Station (Q6RS) Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 112, located at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program, which also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code. Assessment activities have previously been performed at 10 Q6RS Locations of Concern (LOCs), identified during a SWMU assessment in 2013 (NASA 2013). Since the SWMU assessment, further confirmatory sampling and assessment was conducted for each LOC, and based on the data collected during these assessments, it was determined that Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Facility Investigation to further evaluate soil and groundwater was to be conducted at two LOCs: LOC 1 – Former Underground Storage Tanks (groundwater) and LOC 3 – Radar Antenna Refurbishment Area (soil). The LOC 1 groundwater assessment is ongoing, and the results will be presented under a separate cover. It was also determined that soil IM would be completed at two of the LOCs, LOC 3 and LOC 10 – Compressor Building Condensate Discharge. A Soil IM Work Plan was prepared and submitted in October 2021 (NASA 2021). The plan proposed excavation and disposal of barium and copper impacted soil in the LOC 3 and 10 areas. This report presents a summary and results of the soil IM implementation activities conducted at LOCs 3 and 10. The site contaminates of concern for this soil IM are barium and copper. The activities presented in this report includes soil IM implementation and groundwater sampling. From January 23 through March 24, 2023, AECOM Technical Services, Inc. (AECOM) field personnel conducted IM implementation activities in the LOC 3 and 10 areas. As presented in the IM Work Plan, shallow soils, impacted with metals, were excavated to a depth of 2 feet below land surface in the central area of the site around the radar antenna and associated equipment. AECOM personnel excavated 77.43 tons of soil using hand tools and, when able, heavy equipment. The soils were placed into lined roll-off containers, which were covered and transported under manifest to the Cedar Trail Landfill in Bartow, Florida. The site was restored to original condition using certified clean backfill material (sand), with filter fabric, and gravel. Areas outside of the excavation were restored with grass seed. On June 6, 2023, AECOM field personnel conducted groundwater sampling activities within the soil IM excavation area. AECOM personnel collected one groundwater sample from monitoring well Q6RS-MW0003. The sample was submitted to a fixed-based laboratory for analysis by United States Environmental Protection Agency Method 6020B for metals (barium and copper). Barium and copper were detected at 18 micrograms per liter (µg/L) and 14 µg/L, respectively, and were below the State of Florida Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (GCTLs) for barium at 2,000 µg/L and copper at 1,000 µg/L.
The potential of airborne imaging spectrometry for assessing and monitoring natural resources is studied. Therefore, an AVIRIS scene of the NASA's MacEurope 1991 campaign - acquired in Central Switzerland - is used. The test site consists of an urban area, the Lake Zug with its surrounding fields, the Rigi mountain in the center of the test site, and the Lake of Four Cantons. The region is covered by the AVIRIS flight #910705, run 6 and 7 of the NASA ER-2 aircraft resulting in an average nominal pixel size of about 18 m. Simultaneous to the ER-2 overflight spectroradiometric measurements have been taken in various locations. Preselected reference targets were measured in the field with a GER Mark V spectroradiometer, and radiance measurements were taken to the lake using a Li-Cor LI 1800UW specroradiometer below and above the water surface. A comprehensive meteorological data set was obtained by joining the POLLUMET experiment which carried out measurements to investigate the summer smog in Switzerland on the same day. The quality assessment for the actual data set can be found in detail in Meyer et al. A parametric approach calculating the location of the airplane was used to simulate the observation geometry. This parametric preprocessing procedure, which takes care of effects of flight line and attitude variations as well as the pixel-by-pixel topographic corrections is described in Meyer.
Prior to potentially sending humans to the surface of Mars, it is fundamentally important to return samples from Mars. Analysis in Earth's extensive scientific laboratories would significantly reduce the risk of human Mars exploration and would also support the science and engineering decisions relating to the Mars human flight architecture. The importance of measurements of any returned Mars samples range from critical to desirable, and in all cases these samples will would enhance our understanding of the Martian environment before potentially sending humans to that alien locale. For example, Mars sample return (MSR) could yield information that would enable human exploration related to 1) enabling forward and back planetary protection, 2) characterizing properties of Martian materials relevant for in situ resource utilization (ISRU), 3) assessing any toxicity of Martian materials with respect to human health and performance, and 4) identifying information related to engineering surface hazards such as the corrosive effect of the Martian environment. In addition, MSR would be engineering 'proof of concept' for a potential round trip human mission to the planet, and a potential model for international Mars exploration.
The Evolve-CAPP project is developing and implementing strategies to enable the Central Appalachian basin to realize its full economic potential for producing high-value, non-fuel, carbon-ore (CO) products, rare earth elements (REE), and critical minerals (CM). The Basinal Assessment of CORE-CM Resources is a state-of-the-art geological model and comprehensive database that will be used to identify, locate, and quantify in-situ resources in the basin. Restrictive aspects of resource recovery, such as ownership and legal restrictions, are being considered in estimating recoverable resources. A gap analysis of missing or unavailable data that could not be fully integrated in the initial assessment due to budget, access, or other constraints during the assessment effort is planned. A characterization and data acquisition plan to fully characterize the basin’s CORE-CM potential will address gaps in data. The plan will be developed with input from project team members and relevant stakeholders, including land and mineral holding companies and coal operators, who maintain sampling programs as part of their normal operations.
PNNL evaluated the inclusion of wind in distributed energy resource modeling and simulation tools. Tools were assessed based on a survey of publicly available and readily accessible information. While the authors have made a good faith effort to understand these tools, PNNL does not know the intentions of the developers and acknowledges that some tool capabilities or features may not have been accurately captured in this assessment. This evaluation informs an ongoing effort by PNNL to modernize existing tools both directly by working with developers of some tools and indirectly by providing best practices on how different types of tools could enhance certain modeling features to improve distributed wind’s representation and valuation.
Localized depletion of marine and estuarine populations often results from large-scale natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, oil spills) as well as overharvest of fisheries resources. Understanding how such localized depletions may affect populations at larger regional scales requires knowledge of connectivity among local populations within the larger regional landscape or metapopulation. Efforts to restore populations following such decreases require similar knowledge. During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, dramatic declines of oysters occurred throughout estuaries west and east of the Mississippi River. We examined trajectories of particles, which were parameterized to mimic oyster larvae, using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC; https://adcirc.org ) model to evaluate potential connectivity within and among embayments from Western Louisiana to Alabama. Patterns of larval settlement, which we defined as the intersection of a larval particle with known or expected oyster habitat at any point 13–21 days post-release, reflected much greater local contributions, with 50%–90% of settled particles originating within the same subdivision of embayments. Exchange among subdivision was much less (0%–40%) and settlement originating from outside the embayment of release was trivial under most scenarios (0%–14%). Connectivity between adjacent basins was greatest for larvae released in the southern portions of the embayment, whereas connectivity among nonadjacent basins was not predicted under the scenarios modeled. Because most local populations are relatively isolated on ecological timescales, areas suffering from extensive local depletion are likely to require extensive time to recover due to the lack of larval subsidy from the overall regional population. Restoration would require building stepping-stone populations or reefs within and among basin to restore a high degree of connectivity.
Cement and concrete, while traditionally recognized as the main contributors to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, also have untapped capacity to serve as substantial and scalable carbon sinks. This perspective examines how engineered mineral carbonation can transform cement-based materials into functional carbon storage systems, generating both environmental and economic value. We review the fundamental mechanisms of CO 2 uptake in cementitious systems, highlighting current limitations in reaction kinetics, phase control, and durability under varying environmental conditions. Emphasis is placed on the utilization of alkaline industrial residues and emerging magnesium-based cements, which offer synergistic pathways for carbon sequestration and circular resource use. We further assess the performance trade-offs associated with CO 2 uptake and the feasibility of deploying these technologies on industrial scales. A strategic roadmap is proposed that integrates scientific innovation, regulatory alignment, and carbon accounting in the life cycle to accelerate the adoption of carbon-storing concrete. This perspective provides a comprehensive framework to advance cement and concrete as engineered carbon sinks and supports the transition to a climate-positive construction industry.
While algal biofuels have the potential to reduce the national reliance on fossil fuels, high water consumption associated with algal biomass cultivation represents a major concern potentially compromising the sustainable commercialization of this technology. This study focuses on quantifying the water footprint (WF) and water scarcity footprint (WSF) of renewable diesel derived from algal biomass and provides insights into where algal cultivation is less water-intensive than traditional ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks. Results are generated with an engineering process model developed to predict the life-cycle water consumption, considering green, blue, and gray water, of algae facilities across the United States at a high spatiotemporal resolution. The total WFs for Florida and Arizona are determined to be 13.1 and 17.6 m 3 GJ –1 , respectively. The blue WF in Arizona is shown to be 8.5 times larger than in Florida, while the green WF is 4.5 times smaller, but when combined into a total WF, there is just a 26% difference between the two locations. The analysis reveals that the total life-cycle WFs of algal renewable diesel are smaller than the optimal WFs of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. Algal systems benefit from higher growth rates and offer the opportunity to manage wastewater streams, therefore generating smaller green and gray WFs than those of conventional biofuels. Here, the WSF analysis identifies the Gulf Coast as the most suitable region for algal cultivation, with cultivation in the western US shown to exacerbate local water stress levels.
In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.
SF-25-046 Biomass resources are widely available in United States, however to utilize the resources we need to assess the bioenergy pathways per their economic and environmental performance. The framework combines several developments in the research field and integrates into a software easy to use and expand upon to study various bioenergy pathways.The software code is developed in Python language and works with an Excel based dashboard.