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At least 721 records · Page 40

Carcass appearance does not influence scavenger avoidance of carnivore carrion

Abstract The selection or avoidance of certain carrion resources by vertebrate scavengers can alter the flow of nutrients in ecosystems. Evidence suggests higher trophic level carrion is scavenged by fewer vertebrate species and persists longer when compared to lower trophic level carrion, although it is unclear how scavengers distinguish between carcasses of varying species. To investigate carnivore carrion avoidance and explore sensory recognition mechanisms in scavenging species, we investigated scavenger use of intact and altered (i.e., skin, head, and feet removed) coyote— Canis latrans (carnivore) and wild pig— Sus scrofa (omnivore) carcasses experimentally placed at the Savannah River Site, SC, USA. We predicted carnivore carcasses would persist longer due to conspecific and intraguild scavenger avoidance. Further, we hypothesized visually modifying carcasses would not reduce avoidance of carnivore carrion, given scavengers likely depend largely on chemical cues when assessing carrion resources. As expected, mammalian carnivores largely avoided scavenging on coyote carcasses, resulting in carnivore carcasses having longer depletion times than wild pig carcasses at intact and altered trials. Therefore, nutrients derived from carnivore carcasses are not as readily incorporated into higher trophic levels and scavengers largely depend on olfactory cues when assessing benefits and risks associated with varying carrion resources.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DEReliction: A Cybersecurity Vulnerability Assessment Methodology for Distributed Energy Resources

With the increasing integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) into the electric grid, maintaining grid reliability and resilience requires that these devices remain secure. This paper discusses a cybersecurity vulnerability assessment methodology that incorporates best practices from Sandia National Laboratories, SANS Institute, OWASP Foundation, and other web and Internet of Things (IoT) penetration testing (“pen testing”) programs, courses, and frameworks for assessing the security posture of devices. The methodology involves five sequential steps: (1) Collect Public Information, (2) Extract Hardware Details, (3) Inventory Software Components, (4) Identify Vulnerabilities, and (5) Test Vulnerabilities. Each step uncovers potential weaknesses in both hardware and software components of DER devices, considering adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), and potential attack vectors along the way. The results from the execution of this method on multiple residential- and small commercial-scale photovoltaic (PV) inverters reveled hardware and software vulnerabilities, which highlight the benefit of taking a methodical approach to discover vulnerabilities. While the specific vulnerability details are not shared here, a generalized overview of findings underscore the importance of robust security assessments for DER devices. Adoption of an assessment framework of this kind will identify and mitigate cybersecurity threats and bolster the resilience of DER-integrated electric grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Version 2 - Tidal Energy Resource Characterization, Velocity and Turbulence Measurements, Cook Inlet, AK, 2021

Version 2 of MHKDR submission #475, which also contains the metadata for these measurements. Files here are stored in netCDF4 format, which can be read in Python using the "netcdf4" or "xarray" packages or in MATLAB using the "ncread()" function. Changes are as follows: MWM1 (mid-water mooring 1) ADV - Time length of data now ends when bottom track data is lost - Improved filtering and quality control of bottom track measurements - improved motion correction of velocity - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved velocity, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Reynolds stress, time interval (TI), and dissipation rate estimations MWM1 Down-Looking ADCP - Improved filtering and quality control of bottom track measurements - improved motion correction of velocity - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved TI and dissipation rate estimations - Removed TKE calculations - accuracy could not be verified MWM1 Up-Looking ADCP - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved TI and dissipation rate estimations - Removed TKE calculations - accuracy could not be verified - Velocity unchanged MWM2 ADV - Removes data after instrument was hit by debris - Improved filtering and quality control of bottom track measurements - improved motion correction of velocity - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved velocity, TKE, Reynolds stress, TI, and dissipation rate estimations MWM2 Down-Looking ADCP - Improved filtering and quality control of bottom track measurements - improved motion correction of velocity - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved TI and dissipation rate estimations - Removed TKE calculations - accuracy could not be verified MWM2 Up-Looking ADCP - Improved filtering and quality control of bottom track measurements - improved motion correction of velocity - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved TI and dissipation rate estimations - Removed TKE calculations - accuracy could not be verified THEOM (bottom lander) ADV - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved TKE, Reynolds stress, TI, and dissipation rate estimations - Velocity unchanged THEOM ADCP (up-looking) - Improved Doppler noise subtraction - improved TKE, TI, and dissipation rate estimations - Removed vertical TKE component (w'w' bar) - Velocity unchanged

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

RefSoil+: a Reference Database for Genes and Traits of Soil Plasmids

Plasmids harbor transferable genes that contribute to the functional repertoire of microbial communities, yet their contributions to metagenomes are often overlooked. Environmental plasmids have the potential to spread antibiotic resistance to clinical microbial strains. In soils, high microbiome diversity and high variability in plasmid characteristics present a challenge for studying plasmids. To improve the understanding of soil plasmids, we present RefSoil+, a database containing plasmid sequences from 922 soil microorganisms. Soil plasmids were larger than other described plasmids, which is a trait associated with plasmid mobility. There was a weak relationship between chromosome size and plasmid size and no relationship between chromosome size and plasmid number, suggesting that these genomic traits are independent in soil. We used RefSoil+ to inform the distributions of antibiotic resistance genes among soil microorganisms compared to those among nonsoil microorganisms. Soil-associated plasmids, but not chromosomes, had fewer antibiotic resistance genes than other microorganisms. These data suggest that soils may offer limited opportunity for plasmid-mediated transfer of described antibiotic resistance genes. RefSoil+ can serve as a reference for the diversity, composition, and host associations of plasmid-borne functional genes in soil, a utility that will be enhanced as the database expands. Our study improves the understanding of soil plasmids and provides a resource for assessing the dynamics of the genes that they carry, especially genes conferring antibiotic resistances.Soil-associated plasmids have the potential to transfer antibiotic resistance genes from environmental to clinical microbial strains, which is a public health concern. A specific resource is needed to aggregate the knowledge of soil plasmid characteristics so that the content, host associations, and dynamics of antibiotic resistance genes can be assessed and then tracked between the environment and the clinic. Here, we present RefSoil+, a database of soil-associated plasmids. RefSoil+ presents a contemporary snapshot of antibiotic resistance genes in soil that can serve as a reference as novel plasmids and transferred antibiotic resistances are discovered. Our study broadens our understanding of plasmids in soil and provides a community resource of important plasmid-associated genes, including antibiotic resistance genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well is assessed as a likely method for extracting water from these bodies of ice. The figure below is a sample of results from this assessment that will be discussed.

Hoffman, Stephen↗

2022 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is a 2022 update to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2021. Anticipated summer reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 15.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2021 to 22.8 percent in the Final SARA for Summer 2022, driven mostly by increases in wind and solar generation. Using data from ERCOT’s 2022 Summer SARA, Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) reports, and historical performance data obtained from ERCOT and Hitachi Energy Velocity Suite, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2022. The results suggests that ERCOT may be facing a very tight resource adequacy situation, with the potential for a serious shortfall during the summer peak, usually the end of July through mid-August, if demand and generator outage rates significantly exceed peak levels. Under these conditions, ERCOT will need to call on its operating tools, including Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) and calls to conserve electricity, to maintain reliability and continue serving load. Those measures alone may not be sufficient to avert a shedding of load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Methodology for Clustering High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Solar Resource Data

In this report, we introduce a methodology to achieve multiple levels of spatial resolution reduction of solar resource data, with minimal impact on data variability, for use in energy systems modeling. The selection of an appropriate clustering algorithm, parameter selection including cluster size, methods of temporal data segmentation, and methods of cluster evaluation are explored in the context of a repeatable process. In describing this process, we illustrate the steps in creating a reduced resolution, but still viable, dataset to support energy systems modeling, e.g. capacity expansion or production cost modeling. This process is demonstrated through the use of a solar resource dataset; however, the methods are applicable to other resource data represented through spatiotemporal grids, including wind data. In addition to energy modeling, the techniques demonstrated in this paper can be used in a novel top-down approach to assess renewable resources within many other contexts that leverage variability in resource data but require reduction in spatial resolution to accommodate modeling or computing constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DeepCwind Consortium Research Program: January 15, 2010 - March 31, 2013 (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report for the U.S. Department of Energy-funded program, DE-0002981: DeepCwind Consortium Research Program. The project objective was the partial validation of coupled models and optimization of materials for offshore wind structures. The United States has a great opportunity to harness an indigenous abundant renewable energy resource: offshore wind. In 2010, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimated there to be over 4,000 GW of potential offshore wind energy found within 50 nautical miles of the US coastlines (Musial and Ram, 2010). The US Energy Information Administration reported the total annual US electric energy generation in 2010 was 4,120 billion kilowatt-hours (equivalent to 470 GW) (US EIA, 2011), slightly more than 10% of the potential offshore wind resource. In addition, deep water offshore wind is the dominant US ocean energy resource available comprising 75% of the total assessed ocean energy resource as compared to wave and tidal resources (Musial, 2008). Through these assessments it is clear offshore wind can be a major contributor to US energy supplies. The caveat to capturing offshore wind along many parts of the US coast is deep water. Nearly 60%, or 2,450 GW, of the estimated US offshore wind resource is located in water depths of 60 m or more (Musial and Ram, 2010). At water depths over 60 m building fixed offshore wind turbine foundations, such as those found in Europe, is likely economically infeasible (Musial et al., 2006). Therefore floating wind turbine technology is seen as the best option for extracting a majority of the US offshore wind energy resource. Volume 1 - Test Site; Volume 2 - Coupled Models; and Volume 3 - Composite Materials.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrated Campaign Probabilistic Cost, Schedule, Performance, and Value for Program Office Support

This paper describes an integrated assessment tool developed at NASA Langley Research Center that incorporates probabilistic analysis of life cycle cost, schedule, launch performance, on-orbit performance, and value across a series of planned space-based missions, or campaign. Originally designed as an aid in planning the execution of missions to accomplish the National Research Council 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, it utilizes Monte Carlo simulation of a series of space missions for assessment of resource requirements and expected return on investment. Interactions between simulated missions are incorporated, such as competition for launch site manifest, to capture unexpected and non-linear system behaviors. A novel value model is utilized to provide an assessment of the probabilistic return on investment. A demonstration case is discussed to illustrate the tool utility.

Cornelius, David↗

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is supporting the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multi-faceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) technologies into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource datasets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. This project is focused on collecting baseline datasets, updating conceptual models, and creating Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) workflows for low-temperature (<150 degrees Celsius) geothermal resources of different geothermal play types (i.e., sedimentary basin, orogenic belts, and radiogenic geothermal play types) that could be used for geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), combined heat and power (CHP), and other geothermal direct uses (GDU) applications. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs - natural or engineered - with temperatures <150 degrees Celsius. While the focus in the NREL effort is on GHC, resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. This project does not include Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) technologies because they can be effectively developed almost anywhere. Low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher- to medium-temperature geothermal resources, but there is recent interest in improving understanding of these types of resources with an uptick of interest in geothermal technologies for decarbonizing heating and cooling systems. In addition, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and other emerging technologies for exploiting petrothermal resources have opened the possibility of utilizing deep sedimentary basin systems, where porous media provide permeability and high temperatures can be reached at great depths. This project takes the approach of classifying low- temperature geothermal resources by geothermal play type (GPT). We defined and characterized three major classes of low-temperature GPT: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We develop methodologies for evaluating and analyzing the potential for these resources building off the PFA approach to de-risking geothermal exploration and characterization. The proposed PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: 1) identifying relevant data (e.g., datasets such bottom-hole temperatures from oil and gas wells, heat flow data, Quaternary faults and stress field data, geophysical data, etc.); 2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, and economic criteria); 3) uncertainty quantification; 4) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and 5) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool (RSAT). This project should facilitate future deployment of GHC, CHP, and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources. Increased deployment of GHC and GDU will help achieve national and local decarbonization goals.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Lunar Resources Catalog (LRC): Viper Pathfinder Dataset

Introduction: A new era in lunar exploration has recently begun. Through NASA’s robotic Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative, international and the human Artemis programs, multiple assets are being deployed to explore the Moon and at a rapid cadence. There will be a huge expanse in lunar surface exploration with mobility (e.g., rovers). Several missions are focused on collecting data for assessing lunar resources for potential In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). With this expansion in exploration there will be a commensurate expansion in the volume and variety of data. Work has begun on establishing a measurement plan (i.e., what data is needed) for ISRU [1] but how to integrate these data into the broader Planetary Data Ecosystem (PDE) following FAIR (i.e., Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reuse) data practices has not been addressed. The VIPER team intends to engage this challenge.

VIPER↗

Northern Colorado Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Relationships between Snowpack and Wildfires for Water Utility Management

In recent years, wildfires in the western U.S. have increased in size, frequency, and severity. Colorado is no exception to this trend, with many recent wildfires raising concerns. The Cameron Peak and East Troublesome Fires, the two largest recorded wildfires in Colorado history, burned over 400,000 acres in 2020. Wildfires pose a significant threat to high-elevation ecosystems, especially in terms of disturbances to watershed resources. Colorado’s annual water supply is dependent upon the melt and runoff of high-elevation snowpack, thus understanding wildfire effects is crucial. This project partnered with Northern Water, a water management company in Colorado, to explore fire impacts on Colorado Front Range watersheds and water supply forecasts. We investigated the use of remote sensing to study the influences of wildfire on snow depth, as Northern Water had previously relied on field-based observations of snowpack for their water supply forecasts. This project utilized airborne LiDAR data from Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc., Landsat 8 OLI derived products, as well as in situ snow survey data from Colorado State University to assess and model changes in snowpack over time. We uncovered key drivers of change in snowpack such as burn severity and snow zone and created a random forest model to determine and investigate their relationships. Despite temporal data availability limitations, analysis also showed that remotely-sensed snow depth measurements were strongly correlated with in situ snow depth measurements, revealing the accuracy and feasibility of using remote sensing technologies to study landscape-scale snowpack characteristics for water utility management purposes.

airborne LiDAR↗

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗

Low-Temperature Geothermal Geospatial Datasets: An Example from Alaska

This project is a component of a broader effort focused on geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) with the aim of illustrating the numerous benefits of incorporating GHC and geothermal heat exchange (GHX) into community energy planning and national decarbonization strategies. To better assist private sector investment, it is currently necessary to define and assess the potential of low-temperature geothermal resources. For shallow GHC/GHX fields, there is no formal compilation of subsurface characteristics shared among industry practitioners that can improve system design and operations. Alaska is specifically noted in this work, because heretofore, it has not received a similar focus in geothermal potential evaluations as the contiguous United States. The methodology consists of leveraging relevant data to generate a baseline geospatial dataset of low-temperature resources (less than 150 degrees C) to compare and analyze information accessible to anyone trying to understand the potential of GHC/GHX and small-scale low-temperature geothermal power in Alaska (e.g., energy modelers, communities, planners, and policymakers). Importantly, this project identifies data related to (1) the evaluation of GHC/GHX in the shallow subsurface, and (2) the evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource availability. Additionally, data is being compiled to assess repurposing of oil and gas wells to contribute co-produced fluids toward the geothermal direct use and heating and cooling resource potential. In this work we identified new data from three different datasets of isolated geothermal systems in Alaska and bottom-hole temperature data from oil and gas wells that can be leveraged for evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource potential. The goal of this project is to facilitate future deployment of GHC/GHX analysis and community-led programs and update the low-temperature geothermal resources assessment of Alaska. A better understanding of shallow potential for GHX will improve design and operations of highly efficient GHC systems. The deployment and impact that can be achieved for low-temperature geothermal resources will contribute to decarbonization goals and facilitate widespread electrification by shaving and shifting grid loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Timescales and Processes of Methane Hydrate Formation and Breakdown, With Application to Geologic Systems

Abstract Gas hydrate is an ice‐like form of water and low molecular weight gas stable at temperatures of roughly −10°C to 25°C and pressures of ~3 to 30 MPa in geologic systems. Natural gas hydrates sequester an estimated one sixth of Earth's methane and are found primarily in deepwater marine sediments on continental margins, but also in permafrost areas and under continental ice sheets. When gas hydrate is removed from its stability field, its breakdown has implications for the global carbon cycle, ocean chemistry, marine geohazards, and interactions between the geosphere and the ocean‐atmosphere system. Gas hydrate breakdown can also be artificially driven as a component of studies assessing the resource potential of these deposits. Furthermore, geologic processes and perturbations to the ocean‐atmosphere system (e.g., warming temperatures) can cause not only dissociation, but also more widespread dissolution of hydrate or even formation of new hydrate in reservoirs. Linkages between gas hydrate and disparate aspects of Earth's near‐surface physical, chemical, and biological systems render an assessment of the rates and processes affecting the persistence of gas hydrate an appropriate Centennial Grand Challenge. This paper reviews the thermodynamic controls on methane hydrate stability and then describes the relative importance of kinetic, mass transfer, and heat transfer processes in the formation and breakdown (dissociation and dissolution) of gas hydrate. Results from numerical modeling, laboratory, and some field studies are used to summarize the rates of hydrate formation and breakdown, followed by an extensive treatment of hydrate dynamics in marine and cryospheric gas hydrate systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Risk-based System Upgrade Planning for AOT-IC [Capstone Project]

The Accelerator Operations and Technology Instrumentation and Controls Group (AOT IC) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has established a comprehensive risk-based system upgrade planning strategy which has been utilized as a tool to prioritize system upgrade projects for the past several years. A challenge with the current system is that the group often lacks the data to quantify the probability and impact of system failures, so the group often relies instead on qualitative risk assessments as well as evaluations of a potential upgrade project’s alignment with group strategy and vision to prioritize projects. A proposed framework to enable quantitative risk probability and impact assessments has been developed and tested on three pilot systems chosen to broadly represent the types and conditions of equipment used by the group. The proposed framework incorporates availability data gathered from the LANSCE control room logbooks and the LANSCE work control system, as well as a system health evaluation which is conducted from a variety of resources to assess the probability of equipment failure. The impact of system failure is viewed from the perspective of impact on mission and schedule, where spares status, system documentation status, and the functional distribution of deployed systems are used to quantify these impacts.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗