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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Towards an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS): A Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic System for Water Balance Assessments

Effective management of water resources requires reliable estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including water balance components. But most land surface models run in uncoupled mode and do not produce river discharge at catchment scales to be useful for water resources management applications. Such integrated systems are also rare over India where hydrometeorological extremes have wreaked havoc on the economy and people. So, an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) with a coupled land surface and a hydrodynamic model has been developed and driven by multiple meteorological forcings (0.1°, daily) to estimate land surface states, channel discharge, and floodplain inundation. ILDAS benefits from an integrated framework as well as the largest suite of observation records collected over India and has been used to produce a reanalysis product for 1981–2021 using four forcing datasets, namely, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), ECMWF’s ERA-5, and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation. We assessed the uncertainty and bias in these precipitation datasets and validated all major components of the terrestrial water balance, i.e., surface runoff, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, evapotranspiration, and streamflow, against a combination of satellite and in situ observation datasets. Our assessment shows that ILDAS can represent the hydrological processes reasonably well over the Indian landmass with IMD precipitation showing the best relative performance. Evaluation against ESA-CCI soil moisture shows that MERRA-2 based estimates outperform the others, whereas ERA-5 performs best in simulating evapotranspiration when evaluated against MODIS ET. Evaluations against observed records show that CHIRPS-based estimates have the highest performance in reconstructing surface runoff and streamflow. Once operational, this system will be useful for supporting transboundary water management decision making in the region.

Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)↗
NASA NTRS1973

Space Tug Point Design Study. Volume 3: Design Definition. Part 2: Insulation, Meteoroid Protection, Structures, Mass Properties, GSE, Reliability and Safety

A study was conducted to determine the configuration and performance of a space tug. Detailed descriptions of the insulation, meteoroid protection, primary structure, and ground support equipment are presented. Technical assessments leading to the concept selection are analyzed. The tug mass properties, reliability, and safety assessments are included.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Proposed Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance Guidelines for Space Systems

Deterministic damage tolerance guidelines for highly reusable and efficiently designed launch systems can be challenging to meet and result in overly conservative assessments for tightly controlled manufacturing processes. Deterministic approaches may be unconservative when the structure is workmanship sensitive and there is a wide spread in fracture properties. Reliability-based damage tolerance assessments targeting a component reliability over the service life commensurate to mission risk posture is a promising alternative. Low production rates, short fleets, and lack of standards or guidance has slowed down widespread adoption of this method. Guidance for the robust application of reliability-based damage tolerance for space systems are proposed. These guidelines cover the treatment of uncertainty in damage tolerance analysis, the collection of data to develop probabilistic distributions, uncertainty propagation methods, and types of hardware.

Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance↗
NASA NTRS1995

Integrated Logistics Support Analysis of the International Space Station Alpha: An Overview of the Maintenance Time Dependent Parameter Prediction Methods Enhancement

The objective of this publication is to introduce the enhancement methods for the overall reliability and maintainability methods of assessment on the International Space Station. It is essential that the process to predict the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failure (MTBF) over time do not in themselves generate uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle costs, spares calculation, etc. Furthermore, the very acute problems of micrometeorite, Cosmic rays, flares, atomic oxygen, ionization effects, orbital plumes and all the other factors that differentiate maintainable space operations from non-maintainable space operations and/or ground operations must be accounted for. Therefore, these parameters need be subjected to a special and complex process. Since reliability and maintainability strongly depend on the operating conditions that are encountered during the entire life of the International Space Station, it is important that such conditions are accurately identified at the beginning of the logistics support requirements process. Environmental conditions which exert a strong influence on International Space Station will be discussed in this report. Concurrent (combined) space environments may be more detrimental to the reliability and maintainability of the International Space Station than the effects of a single environment. In characterizing the logistics support requirements process, the developed design/test criteria must consider both the single and/or combined environments in anticipation of providing hardware capability to withstand the hazards of the International Space Station profile. The effects of the combined environments (typical) in a matrix relationship on the International Space Station will be shown. The combinations of the environments where the total effect is more damaging than the cumulative effects of the environments acting singly, may include a combination such as temperature, humidity, altitude, shock, and vibration while an item is being transported. The item's acceptance to its end-of-life sequence must be examined for these effects.

Sepehry-Fard, F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress and prospects of thermo-mechanical energy storage – A critical review

The share of electricity generated by intermittent renewable energy sources is increasing (now at 26% of global electricity generation) and the requirements of affordable, reliable and secure energy supply designate grid-scale storage as an imperative component of most energy transition pathways. The most widely deployed bulk energy storage solution is pumped-hydro energy storage (PHES), however, this technology is geographically constrained. Alternatively, flow batteries are location independent and have higher energy densities than PHES, but remain associated with high costs and low lifetimes, which highlights the importance of developing and utilizing additional larger-scale, longer-duration and long-lifetime energy storage alternatives. Here, we review a class of promising bulk energy storage technologies based on thermo-mechanical principles, which includes: compressed-air energy storage (CAES), liquid-air energy storage (LAES) and pumped-thermal electricity storage (PTES). The thermodynamic principles upon which these thermo-mechanical energy storage (TMES) technologies are based are discussed and a synopsis of recent progress in their development is presented, assessing their ability to provide reliable and cost-effective solutions. The current performance and future prospects of TMES systems are examined within a unified framework and a thermoeconomic analysis is conducted to explore their competitiveness relative to each other as well as when compared to PHES and flow battery systems. This includes carefully selected thermodynamic and economic methodologies for estimating the component costs of each configuration in order to provide a detailed and fair comparison at various system sizes. The analysis reveals that the technical and economic characteristics of TMES systems are such that, especially at higher discharge power ratings and longer discharge durations, they can offer promising performance (round-trip efficiencies higher than 60%) along with high lifetimes (> 30 years), low specific costs (often below 100 $/kWh), low ecological footprints and unique sector-coupling features compared to other storage options. TMES systems have significant potential for further progress and the thermoeconomic comparisons in this paper can be used as a benchmark for their future evolution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs of complex machines, human error in the Shuttle PRA proved to be an important contributor (~12 percent) to LOCV. An existing HRA technique was adapted for use in the Shuttle PRA, but additional guidance and improvements are needed to make the HRA task in space-related PRAs easier and more accurate. Therefore, this presentation will also outline plans for expanding current HRA methodology to more explicitly cover spaceflight performance shaping factors.

Hamlin, Teri↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar power satellite system definition study. Volume 1, phase 1: Executive summary

A systems definition study of the solar satellite system (SPS) is presented. The technical feasibility of solar power satellites based on forecasts of technical capability in the various applicable technologies is assessed. The performance, cost, operational characteristics, reliability, and the suitability of SPS's as power generators for typical commercial electricity grids are discussed. The uncertainties inherent in the system characteristics forecasts are assessed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1977

Development of the technology for the fabrication of reliable laminar from control panels

Materials were assessed and fabrication techniques were developed for use in the manufacture of wing surface materials compatible with the application of both aluminum alloys and nonmetallic composites. The concepts investigated included perforations and slots in the metallic test panels and microporosity and perforations in the composite test panels. Perforations were produced in the metallic test panels by the electron beam process and slots were developed by controlled gaps between the metal sheets. Microporosity was produced in the composite test panels by the resin bleed process, and perforations were produced by the fugitive fiber technique. Each of these concepts was fabricated into test panels, and air flow tests were conducted on the panels.

Meade, L. E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1986

Independent Orbiter Assessment: Assessment of the FMEA/CIL Instructions and Ground Rules

The McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company was selected to conduct an independent assessment of the Orbiter Failure Mode and Effects Analysis/Critical Items List (FMEA/CIL). Part of this effort involved an examination of the FMEA/CIL preparation instructions and ground rules. Assessment objectives were to identify omissions and ambiguities in the ground rules that may impede the identification of shuttle orbiter safety and mission critical items, and to ensure that ground rules allow these items to receive proper management visibility for risk assessment. Assessment objectives were followed during the performance of the assessment without being influenced by external considerations such as effects on budget, schedule, and documentation growth. Assessment personnel were employed who had a strong reliability background but no previous space shuttle FMEA/CIL experience to ensure an independent assessment would be achieved. The following observations were made: (1) not all essential items are in the CIL for management visibility; (2) ground rules omit FMEA/CIL coverage of items that perform critical functions; (3) essential items excluded from the CIL do not receive design justification; and (4) FMEAs/CILs are not updated in a timely manner. In addition to the above issues, a number of other issues were identified that correct FMEA/CIL preparation instruction omissions and clarify ambiguities. The assessment was successful in that many of the issues have significant safety implications.

Traves, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mass and Reliability System (MaRS)

The Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate is responsible for mitigating risk, providing system safety, and lowering risk for space programs from ground to space. The S&MA is divided into 4 divisions: The Space Exploration Division (NC), the International Space Station Division (NE), the Safety & Test Operations Division (NS), and the Quality and Flight Equipment Division (NT). The interns, myself and Arun Aruljothi, will be working with the Risk & Reliability Analysis Branch under the NC Division's. The mission of this division is to identify, characterize, diminish, and communicate risk by implementing an efficient and effective assurance model. The team utilizes Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to ensure decisions concerning risks are informed, vehicles are safe and reliable, and program/project requirements are realistic and realized. This project pertains to the Orion mission, so it is geared toward a long duration Human Space Flight Program(s). For space missions, payload is a critical concept; balancing what hardware can be replaced by components verse by Orbital Replacement Units (ORU) or subassemblies is key. For this effort a database was created that combines mass and reliability data, called Mass and Reliability System or MaRS. The U.S. International Space Station (ISS) components are used as reference parts in the MaRS database. Using ISS components as a platform is beneficial because of the historical context and the environment similarities to a space flight mission. MaRS uses a combination of systems: International Space Station PART for failure data, Vehicle Master Database (VMDB) for ORU & components, Maintenance & Analysis Data Set (MADS) for operation hours and other pertinent data, & Hardware History Retrieval System (HHRS) for unit weights. MaRS is populated using a Visual Basic Application. Once populated, the excel spreadsheet is comprised of information on ISS components including: operation hours, random/nonrandom failures, software/hardware failures, quantity, orbital replaceable units (ORU), date of placement, unit weight, frequency of part, etc. The motivation for creating such a database will be the development of a mass/reliability parametric model to estimate mass required for replacement parts. Once complete, engineers working on future space flight missions will have access a mean time to failures and on parts along with their mass, this will be used to make proper decisions for long duration space flight missions

Barnes, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emerging Potassium Metal Anodes: Perspectives on Control of the Electrochemical Interfaces

Potassium metal acts as the anode in emerging potassium metal batteries (KMBs). It further serves as the counter-electrode for potassium ion battery (KIB) half-cells, with its reliable performance being critical for assessing the working electrode material. This first-of-its-kind critical review focuses on the dual challenge of controlling the potassium metal-substrate and the potassium metal-electrolyte interface so as to prevent dendrites. The discussion begins with a comparison of the physical and chemical properties of K metal anodes versus the much oft studied Li and Na metal anodes. Based on established descriptions for root causes of dendrites, the problem should be less severe for K than for Li or Na, while in fact the opposite is observed. The key reason that the K metal surface rapidly becomes dendritic in common electrolytes is its unstable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). An unstable SEI layer is defined as being non self-passivating. No SEI is perfectly stable during cycling, and all SEI structures are heterogenous both vertically and horizontally relative to the electrolyte interface. The difference between a "stable" and an "unstable" SEI may be viewed as the relative degree to which during cycling it thickens and becomes further heterogeneous. The unstable SEI on K metal leads to a number of interrelated problems, such as low cycling Coulombic efficiency (CE), a severe impedance rise, large overpotentials, and possibly electrical shorting; all of which have been reported to occur as early as in the first ten plating/stripping cycles. Many of the traditional "interface fixes" employed for Li and Na metal anodes, such as various artificial SEIs, surface membranes, barrier layers, the secondary separators, etc. have not been attempted or optimized for the case of K. This is an important area for further exploration, with an understanding that success may come harder than with Li due to K-based SEI reactivity with both ether and ester solvents. The second critical problem with K metal anodes is that they do not thermally or electrochemically wet a standard (untreated) Cu foil current collector. Published experimental and modeling research directly highlights the weak bonding between the K atoms and a Cu surface. Existing surface treatment approaches that achieve improved K wetting are discussed, along with the general design rules for future studies. Also discussed are geometry-based methods to tune nucleation, as well dual approaches where nucleation and SEI structure are tuned through complementary schemes to achieve extended half-cell and full battery stability. We hypothesize that K metal never achieves a planar wetting morphology even at cycle one making the dendrites "baked-in". We propose that classical thin films growth models, Frank van der Merwe (F-M), Volmer Weber (V-W), and Stranski-Krastanov (S-K) can be employed to describe early stage plating behavior. It is demonstrated that island-like V-W growth is the applicable description for the natural plating behavior of K on pristine Cu. Moving forward, there are three inter-related thrusts to be pursued: First, K salt - based electrolyte formulations have to mature and become further tailored to handle the increased reactivity of a metal rather than an ion anode. Second, the K-based SEI structure needs to be further understood and ultimately tuned to be less reactive. Third, the energetics of the K metal - current collector interface must be controlled to promote planar wetting/dewetting throughout cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ultrastrong magnon-magnon coupling and chiral spin-texture control in a dipolar 3D multilayered artificial spin-vortex ice

Strongly-interacting nanomagnetic arrays are ideal systems for exploring reconfigurable magnonics. They provide huge microstate spaces and integrated solutions for storage and neuromorphic computing alongside GHz functionality. These systems may be broadly assessed by their range of reliably accessible states and the strength of magnon coupling phenomena and nonlinearities. Increasingly, nanomagnetic systems are expanding into three-dimensional architectures. This has enhanced the range of available magnetic microstates and functional behaviours, but engineering control over 3D states and dynamics remains challenging. Here, we introduce a 3D magnonic metamaterial composed from multilayered artificial spin ice nanoarrays. Comprising two magnetic layers separated by a non-magnetic spacer, each nanoisland may assume four macrospin or vortex states per magnetic layer. This creates a system with a rich 16 N microstate space and intense static and dynamic dipolar magnetic coupling. The system exhibits a broad range of emergent phenomena driven by the strong inter-layer dipolar interaction, including ultrastrong magnon-magnon coupling with normalised coupling rates of $\frac{Δf}{v}$ = 0.57, GHz mode shifts in zero applied field and chirality-control of magnetic vortex microstates with corresponding magnonic spectra.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fabrication and Testing of Two Passively Actuated Creep-Fatigue Surveillance Test Articles

This report describes the fabrication, testing, and analysis of two families of passively-actuated creep-fatigue test articles. These test articles induce cyclic mechanical load in a test section actuated solely through a mismatch in the thermal expansion coefficient of two materials and driven by a change in the specimen temperature. Test articles of this type could provide material degradation data for a materials surveillance program in future operating molten salt reactors, where variations in the reactor temperature caused by normal or upset cycles would provide the temperature change in the sample. The purpose of the current experimental campaign is to demonstrate the feasibility of fabricating realistically-sized test articles, test the articles under repeated thermal cycling to assess their robustness, particularly the reliability of the bimetallic welds, and collect strain data from instrumented samples to validate the methods used to size the test articles to match key features of the mechanical response of operating reactor components. The thermal cycling tests are ongoing but the test data to date suggests the current test article design is viable, robust, and can be successfully designed to match a target mechanical response. Finally, the report describes preliminary work on welding refractory alloys to 316H stainless steel. Replacing the test article driver material, currently Alloy 617, with a refractory would increase the coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch and support further miniaturization of the test articles.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (Casha) "Complete" Catalog of Earthquakes

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) greatly benefit from reliable earthquake catalogs. Central Asia, while rich in seismic monitoring history, reports a fraction of their earthquake data to international data collection centres. Furthermore, since the collapse of Soviet Union until now, monitoring and data collection efforts in Central Asia have not been centralized, making monitoring and reporting uneven and disconnected in this time period. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has undertaken a multi-year effort to systematically work with national seismic monitoring and data centres and seismic networks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to compile a unified seismological bulletin for Central Asia. In tandem with this effort, an earthquake catalog that is processed to be PSHA ready was also generated. The processing for this effort included further duplicate identification and removal, magnitude harmonization and catalog completeness analyses. This report describes the “complete” PSHA-ready earthquake catalog, including the completeness intervals that were applied.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗