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At least 721 records · Page 40

Uncertainty analysis for techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction with centralized upgrading to produce fuel blendstocks

Wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction is a promising technology for producing transportation fuels with much lower greenhouse gases emissions than petroleum-based fuels. However, its techno-economic and life cycle assessment are primarily based on laboratory scale testing data, subject to considerable uncertainties, and even bias, due to knowledge gaps. Here, a preliminary uncertainty analysis of key economic measures was conducted based on the 2019 state-of-technology model for biocrude production. Building on the preliminary analysis, this work presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis in both economic and environmental measures of the entire supply chain of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction to fuel blendstocks including biocrude upgrading based on the 2021 state-of-technology model. The analysis includes the most recent developments in hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude upgrading technologies and Monte Carlo simulation based on an integrated model system including an improved reactor yield model, reduced-order process model, discounted cash flow economic model and simplified life-cycle assessment model. The estimated biocrude yield ranges from 42.2% to 52.4% with a median of 47.3%. The estimated fuel yield ranges from 34.7% to 42.7% with a median of 38.7%. The estimated minimum fuel selling price ranges from $\$ $2.28/gge to $\$ $3.45/gge with a median of $\$ $2.80/gge. Relative to petroleum-derived diesel, the estimated reduction in supply chain greenhouse gas emissions ranges from 73.4% to 81.8% with a median of 77.7%. Compared to the 2019 state-of-technology analysis, a significant improvement in biocrude selectivity and economic measures and reduction in uncertainties were achieved due to the incorporation of additional continuous experimental data sets, technology development and de-risking, and improvement in model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modal dynamics of wind turbine wake meandering from lidar observations

Horizontal scans from nacelle-mounted lidars provide time series measurements of wind turbine wakes across diverse atmospheric conditions, enabling analysis of coherent turbulent structures that influence wake meandering through proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). While low-order modes capture the most energetic turbulent structures, our analysis reveals that they do not necessarily dominate wake meandering dynamics. We evaluate more than 16,000 combinatorial reconstructions of the flow field for each inflow case, demonstrating that mode relevance depends on mode symmetry, turbulent kinetic energy content, and inflow characteristics. Cases with low turbulence intensity and large integral timescales show stronger correlations between POD modes and wake meandering, whereas higher turbulence conditions (turbulence intensity > 7%) are less effectively described by reduced-order models. However, the qualitative similarity of POD modes across varied atmospheric conditions suggests the potential existence of a semi-universal basis for representing wind turbine wakes, with implications for improving engineering wake models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A structure-preserving machine learning framework for accurate prediction of structural dynamics for systems with isolated nonlinearities

The nonlinearities present in structural systems are often found in isolated regions within the structure, such as those containing joints or interfaces. However, despite the localized nature of these nonlinearities their presence serves to couple together the modes of the underlying linear system and significantly complicate the development of appropriate reduced-order models; the localized nonlinearities have a global effect on the dynamics of the system. Further, in the presence of evolving structural health the nonlinearities can arise from accumulating damage, with dynamics distinct from those observed in the healthy state. The present work develops a data-driven formulation to identify and include the contributions of the isolated nonlinearities on the dynamics of the underlying linear structure. A novel coordinate separation is developed that decomposes those nonlinearities restricted to the isolated subdomain from the known linear system defined over the entire domain, and the influence of the isolated nonlinearities is reintroduced as an appropriately identified traction at the boundary of the isolated subdomain, referred to as the deviatoric force. In the region exterior to the nonlinear subdomain the response of the ideal linear system recovers that of the original nonlinear system. In this work, the deviatoric force component is predicted using a structure-preserving multilayer perceptron, based only on measured responses at the boundary of the isolated subdomain. Therefore introduction of the perceptron is able to bypass the direct numerical simulation of the nonlinearities within the isolated subdomain. This approach is illustrated through a simple structural system in which an interior region contains cubic nonlinearities and hysteretic damping. Once trained, the machine learning system is able to accurately predict the deviatoric force so that the ideal system recovers the response of the original system in the region outside the isolated nonlinear subdomain. Moreover, the data-driven approach is able to accurately predict the response when the system is subject to differing initial conditions and external excitation without the need for retraining, so that the proposed approach provides a robust description of the structural dynamics of the overall system.

Machine learning↗

Informative and non-informative decomposition of turbulent flow fields

Not all the information in a turbulent field is relevant for understanding particular regions or variables in the flow. Here, we present a method for decomposing a source field into its informative Φ I (x, t) and residual Φ R (x, t) components relative to another target field. The method is referred to as informative and non-informative decomposition (IND). All the necessary information for physical understanding, reduced-order modelling and control of the target variable is contained in Φ I (x, t), whereas Φ R (x, t) offers no substantial utility in these contexts. The decomposition is formulated as an optimisation problem that seeks to maximise the time-lagged mutual information of the informative component with the target variable while minimising the mutual information with the residual component. The method is applied to extract the informative and residual components of the velocity field in a turbulent channel flow, using the wall shear stress as the target variable. We demonstrate the utility of IND in three scenarios: (i) physical insight into the effect of the velocity fluctuations on the wall shear stress; (ii) prediction of the wall shear stress using velocities far from the wall; and (iii) development of control strategies for drag reduction in a turbulent channel flow using opposition control. In case (i), IND reveals that the informative velocity related to wall shear stress consists of wall-attached high- and low-velocity streaks, collocated with regions of vertical motions and weak spanwise velocity. This informative structure is embedded within a larger-scale streak–roll structure of residual velocity, which bears no information about the wall shear stress. In case (ii), the best-performing model for predicting wall shear stress is a convolutional neural network that uses the informative component of the velocity as input, while the residual velocity component provides no predictive capabilities. Finally, in case (iii), we demonstrate that the informative component of the wall-normal velocity is closely linked to the observability of the target variable and holds the essential information needed to develop successful control strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep material network via a quilting strategy: visualization for explainability and recursive training for improved accuracy

Recent developments integrating micromechanics and neural networks offer promising paths for rapid predictions of the response of heterogeneous materials with similar accuracy as direct numerical simulations. The deep material network is one such approaches, featuring a multi-layer network and micromechanics building blocks trained on anisotropic linear elastic properties. Once trained, the network acts as a reduced-order model, which can extrapolate the material’s behavior to more general constitutive laws, including nonlinear behaviors, without the need to be retrained. However, current training methods initialize network parameters randomly, incurring inevitable training and calibration errors. Here, we introduce a way to visualize the network parameters as an analogous unit cell and use this visualization to “quilt” patches of shallower networks to initialize deeper networks for a recursive training strategy. The result is an improvement in the accuracy and calibration performance of the network and an intuitive visual representation of the network for better explainability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cost function for low-dimensional manifold topology assessment

Abstract In reduced-order modeling, complex systems that exhibit high state-space dimensionality are described and evolved using a small number of parameters. These parameters can be obtained in a data-driven way, where a high-dimensional dataset is projected onto a lower-dimensional basis. A complex system is then restricted to states on a low-dimensional manifold where it can be efficiently modeled. While this approach brings computational benefits, obtaining a good quality of the manifold topology becomes a crucial aspect when models, such as nonlinear regression, are built on top of the manifold. Here, we present a quantitative metric for characterizing manifold topologies. Our metric pays attention to non-uniqueness and spatial gradients in physical quantities of interest, and can be applied to manifolds of arbitrary dimensionality. Using the metric as a cost function in optimization algorithms, we show that optimized low-dimensional projections can be found. We delineate a few applications of the cost function to datasets representing argon plasma, reacting flows and atmospheric pollutant dispersion. We demonstrate how the cost function can assess various dimensionality reduction and manifold learning techniques as well as data preprocessing strategies in their capacity to yield quality low-dimensional projections. We show that improved manifold topologies can facilitate building nonlinear regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A framework for data-driven solution and parameter estimation of PDEs using conditional generative adversarial networks

We employ and adapt the image-to-image translation concept based on conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) for learning a forward and an inverse solution operator of partial differential equations (PDEs). We focus on steady-state solutions of coupled hydromechanical processes in heterogeneous porous media and present the parameterization of the spatially heterogeneous coefficients, which is exceedingly difficult using standard reduced-order modeling techniques. We show that our framework provides a speed-up of at least 2,000 times compared to a finite-element solver and achieves a relative root-mean-square error (r.m.s.e.) of less than 2% for forward modeling. For inverse modeling, the framework estimates the heterogeneous coefficients, given an input of pressure and/or displacement fields, with a relative r.m.s.e. of less than 7%, even for cases where the input data are incomplete and contaminated by noise. The framework also provides a speed-up of 120,000 times compared to a Gaussian prior-based inverse modeling approach while also delivering more accurate results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding how minority relativistic electron populations may dominate charge state balance and radiative cooling of a post-thermal quench tokamak plasma

Minority relativistic electron populations can occur in a range of complex plasmas. Of specific interest is when runaway electrons form among the presence of high-atomic-number ion species in a tokamak plasma discharge. It has been recently demonstrated that ion charge state distributions and radiation losses at low bulk electron temperatures can be dominated by relativistic electrons, even though their density is orders of magnitude lower. Furthermore, this was attributed to the relativistic enhancement of electron impact inelastic cross sections. In this work, we provide a closer inspection of the atomic physics underpinning this effect. We also demonstrate the consequences of runaway enhanced scattering on post-disruption tokamak fusion discharges with neon and argon impurities present. Effects on charge state distributions, radiation and spectral characteristics, and reduced-order modeling considerations are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Predicting turbulent wake flow of marine hydrokinetic turbine arrays in large-scale waterways via physics-enhanced convolutional neural networks

We present a physics-enhanced convolutional neural network (PECNN) algorithm for reconstructing the mean flow and turbulence statistics in the wake of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine arrays installed in large-scale meandering rivers. The algorithm embeds the mass and momentum conservation equations into the loss function of the PECNN algorithm to improve the physical realism of the reconstructed flow fields. The PECNN is trained using large eddy simulation (LES) results of the wake flow of a single row of turbines in a virtual meandering river. Subsequently, the trained PECNN is applied to predict the wake flow of MHK turbines with arrangements and positionings different than those considered during the training process. The PECNN predictions are validated using the results of separately performed LES. The results show that the PECNN algorithm can accurately predict the wake flow of MHK turbine farms at a small fraction of the cost of LES. The PECNN can improve the accuracy by around 1% and reduce the physical constraint indices by around 50% compared to the CNN without physical constraints. This work underscores the potential of PECNN to develop reduced-order models for control co-design and optimization of MHK turbine arrays in natural riverine environments.

Mechanics↗

Tritium Breeding Ratio Evaluation of Solid Breeder Concepts for the FESS-FNSF

This paper presents a parametric study of the Fusion Energy System Studies-Fusion Nuclear Science Facility’s (FNSF’s) tritium breeding performance for several solid breeder concepts, neutron multiplying materials, and blanket materials, assuming volume fractions based on the most recent FNSF design as a realistically representative fusion facility. In this study, we initially surveyed the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) of several solid breeder concepts by employing a simplified but efficient one-dimensional (1-D) infinite cylinder reduced-order model (ROM). Parametric studies were performed with the ROMs for the full range of breeder-to-multiplier ratios to identify the optimum mixture compositions for each breeder type that would lead to a maximum TBR. These optimized breeder-multiplier combinations were then homogenized with FNSF blanket component materials to estimate their impacts on the TBR. Subsequently, as a validation step for the optimal designs, TBR calculations were performed using a more realistic modified 1-D ROM with inner and outer breeding regions, as well as with a fully detailed 22.5-deg three-dimensional (3-D) sector of the FNSF to assess the impact of geometry details on the TBR. The differences between the two 1-D models were negligible, while the ROMs were able to correctly predict trends and identify the maximum and minimum TBR cases, as well as show consistent biases relative to the results produced by the full 3-D, 22.5-deg sector for specific breeder/multiplier combinations. Solid breeder concepts such as Li 2 O, Li 4 SiO 4 , and Li 8 ZrO 6 outperformed all others in this study in terms of TBR performance when combined with all the neutron multiplier materials selected. Here, an underlying goal of this study was to develop and improve rapid and reliable ROMs to aid designers during parametric optimizations of highly complex and computationally expensive fusion models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Non-Hermitian quantum mechanics approach for extracting and emulating continuum physics based on bound-state-like calculations: Detailed description

Here, this work applies a reduced basis method to study the continuum physics of a finite quantum system—either few or many-body. Specifically, I develop reduced-order models, or emulators, for the underlying inhomogeneous Schrödinger equation and train the emulators against the equation's bound-state-like solutions at complex energies. The emulators rapidly and accurately interpolate and extrapolate the matrix elements of the Hamiltonian resolvent operator (Green's function) across a parameter space that includes both complex energy and other real-valued physical inputs in the Schrödinger equation. The spectra, discretized and compressed as the result of emulation, and the associated resolvent matrix elements (or amplitudes), have the defining characteristics of non-Hermitian quantum mechanics calculations, featuring complex eigenenergies with negative imaginary parts and branch cuts moved below the real axis in the complex energy plane. Therefore, one now has a method that extracts continuum physics from bound-state-like calculations and emulates those extractions in the input parameter space. Building on a prior Letter [Zhang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 242501 (2025)], this article provides the full theoretical details, a comprehensive analysis of the method's performance, and a brief discussion of how it can be coupled with existing continuum approaches to perform emulations in their input parameter spaces.

ab initio calculations↗

Machine learning for the identification of phase transitions in interacting agent-based systems: A Desai-Zwanzig example

Deriving closed-form analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework that pinpoints phase transitions for an ABM—the Desai-Zwanzig model—in its mean-field limit, using a smaller number of variables than traditional closed-form models. To this end, we use the manifold learning algorithm Diffusion Maps to identify a parsimonious set of data-driven latent variables, and we show that they are in one-to-one correspondence with the expected theoretical order parameter of the ABM. We then utilize a deep learning framework to obtain a conformal reparametrization of the data-driven coordinates that facilitates, in our example, the identification of a single parameter-dependent ordinary differential equation (ODE) in these coordinates. Additionally, we identify this ODE through a residual neural network inspired by a numerical integration scheme (forward Euler). We then use the identified ODE—enabled through an odd symmetry transformation—to construct the bifurcation diagram exhibiting the phase transition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Transformer Health Monitoring via Synchrophasors

Traditional transformer protection schemes such as differential protection operate once the transformer is in a critical state. Proactive means of transformer health evaluation such as Sweep Frequency Response Analysis, can only be performed periodically with the transformer out-of-service. This work presents a framework where the health and structural integrity of transformers is monitored via synchrophasors in real-time. Synchrophasors and subspace estimation techniques are used to build reduced-order models which are then analyzed across multiple domains. A diagnostics algorithm is developed and tested via Matlab simulations. Test results are promising, opening up new prospects in transformer protection research.

cyber-physical security↗

A Digital Twin for an Inverter-Based Resource Power Plant: Real-time data streaming unlocks situation awareness

Here, this study presents the development and successful implementation of a digital twin specifically designed for a grid-connected IBR power plant. By integrating a reduced-order model of the IBR system and dynamically updating the grid impedance with real-time data, the digital twin effectively captures and replicates the behavior of the physical system. Its accuracy and reliability are validated through critical test scenarios, including a three-phase fault and a line-tripping event. The results confirm that the digital twin closely emulates its physical counterpart, demonstrating its strong potential for real-time analysis, system monitoring, and predictive decision making in modern power systems.

Digital twins↗

Virtual Synchronous Generator Control of Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar Plants (MARS)

Multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) is an integrated concept for integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems (ESS) to transmission alternating current (ac) grid and high-voltage direct current (HVdc) links. The integrated development incorporates advanced control methods to provide enhanced grid ancillary services such as fast frequency responses and dynamic voltage support. In this paper, the virtual synchronous generator (VSG) control algorithm of MARS is discussed. The proposed VSG-based control enables enhanced synthetic inertial response and flexible frequency response characteristics of hybrid PV and ESS power plants in accordance with grid ancillary service requirements. Multi-port power electronics interface allows controlled emergency power support from MARS to local transmission ac grid and remote grid through the HVdc link. The performance of VSG control is validated using a reduced-order model of MARS in Simulink. Methods for estimating grid ancillary service capabilities of MARS are also discussed.

Pan, Jiuping↗

Provably-Stable Overload Ride-Through Control for Grid-Forming Inverters Using System-Wide Lyapunov Function Analysis

A key challenge associated with a grid-forming (GFM) inverter based resource (IBR) is its behavior during severe grid disturbances: since a GFM inverter regulates voltage in the fast timescale instead of current or power, it may experience a transient overload of current, power and/or energy during a severe grid disturbance. While many promising control strategies for overload ride-through have been proposed over the past two decades, transient stability of the system during and after the transition to an overload ride-through control mode remains difficult to guarantee. In this work, a novel overload ride-through control strategy is proposed for a system of grid-forming inverters that takes both self-protection and system-wide transient stability into account. A proposed system-level supervisory control uses slow communication to pre-emptively assign a set of local ride through control parameters to individual GFM IBR, including a current-limiting virtual reactance, that guarantees that synchronism is still preserved for any set of anticipated grid disturbances. At the core of the supervisory control lies a Lyapunov-function-based routine capable of establishing a strong, albeit conservative, transient stability guarantee for the system. Here, the proposed overload ride-through control strategy is validated via numerical integration of a reduced-order model, as well as through detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗