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Scientific objectives and observational requirements relative to sea ice studies in the 1990's are discussed. The development of coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models that provide information comparable to real data sets through interactive processes is discussed. A series of particular problems that would provide the basis for such a verification data set and which is amenable to satellite systems available or realizable over the next 20 years is presented.
An attempt is made to determine the way in which errors appear in the ultralong waves of numerical weather prediction models, as well as the means by which such errors may be alleviated. Such efforts to improve the numerical forecasting of planetary waves derive their importance from the fact that energetic large scale phenomena are the basis for prospective improvements in extended range forecasting. A simple, linear, quasi-geostrophic and barotropic model is presently used in real data forecast simulations to explore, in an idealized context, several effects that may clarify discrepancies betweeen predictability theory and the performance of current numerical weather prediction models. Attention is given to the degree to which discrepancies may be accounted for by linear theory.
The utility of the bounded derivative method (BDM) as an initialization tool was examined using real data and the GLAS fourth order global barotropic model. Two constraints on initial data were derived. The first constraint based on the BDM is an equation for calculating initial divergence. The second constraint yields an additional equation of elliptic type for computing the initial height field. This equation is more general than the balance equation first proposed by Charney (1955). It also has more terms which include the contributions of initial divergence and orography. The development of a data insertion scheme based on the BDM is discussed.
The fuzzy partitioned clustering method was applied to predict tropopause height only using microwave information with an eye towards using it on real data under cloudy conditions. In the second stage stratified by tropopause regression temperature retrievals included using only the three or four microwave channels for each 40 mb range. The first step in the experiment is the fuzzy partitioned clustering of the microwave brightness temperatures. This method is a combination of standard hard clustering and discriminant analysis. The fuzzy partitioned clustering uses all the generated probabilities of membership of each pattern vector in any of the given clusters. These probabilities are generated by discriminant analysis to locate the correct cluster. The ultimate goal of standard discriminant analysis is to provide the unique (correct) cluster to which the pattern vector belongs. It was only the maximum of all the generated probabilities. The method uses all the probabilities and weight the regressions generated within each cluster. These regression formulas predict the tropopause height from the microwave brightness temperatures. In the second step the microwave regression temperature retrievals are stratified by tropopause height every 40 mb. The control experiment is defined, the data are stratified by land/ocean, summer/winter, and latitude bands.
To study the potential impact of advanced passive sounders and lidar temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind observing systems on large-scale numerical weather prediction, a series of realistic simulation studies between the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts, the National Meteorological Center, and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences is conducted. The project attempts to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. The previous simulation studies and real-data impact tests are reviewed and the design of the current simulation system is described. Consideration is given to the simulation of observations of space-based sounding systems.
Appendix 4 of the Study of One- and Two-Dimensional Filtering and Deconvolution Algorithms for a Streaming Array Computer discusses coordinate axes, location of origin, and redundancy for the one- and two-dimensional Fourier transform for complex and real data.
An economical algorithm is presented for predicting the position of a satellite perturbed by drag and zonal harmonics J2 through J4. Simplicity being of the essence, drag is modeled as a secular decay rate in the semimajor axis (retarded motion) with the zonal perturbations modeled from a modified version of Brouwers formulas. The algorithm is developed as an alternative on-board orbit predictor; a back up propagator requiring low energy consumption; or a ground based propagator for microcomputer applications (e.g., at the foot of an antenna). An O(J2) secular retarded state partial matrix (matrizant) is also given to employ with state estimation. The theory has been implemented in BASIC on an inexpensive microcomputer, the program occupying under 8K bytes of memory. Simulated trajectory data and real tracking data are employed to illustrate the theory's ability to accurately accommodate oblateness and drag effects.
It is a fact that adjacent pixels in a Voyager image are very similar in grey level. This fact can be used in conjunction with the Maximum-Likelihood Convolutional Decoder (MCD) to decrease the error rate when decoding a picture from Voyager. Implementing this idea would require no changes in the Voyager spacecraft and could be used as a backup to the current system without too much expenditure, so the feasibility of it and the possible gains for Voyager were investigated. Simulations have shown that the gain could be as much as 2 dB at certain error rates, and experiments with real data inspired new ideas on ways to get the most information possible out of the received symbol stream.
Simultaneous Range Differences (SRDs) to Lageos are obtained by dividing the observing stations into pairs with quasi-simultaneous observations. For each of those pairs the station with the least number of observations is identified, and at its observing epochs interpolated ranges for the alternate station are generated. The SRD observables are obtained by subtracting the actually observed laser range of the station having the least number of observations from the interpolated ranges of the alternate station. On the basis of these observables semidynamic single baseline solutions were performed. The aim of these solutions is to further develop and implement the SRD method in the real data environment, to assess its accuracy, its advantages and disadvantages as related to the range dynamic mode methods, when the baselines are the only parameters of interest. Baselines, using simultaneous laser range observations to Lageos, were also estimated through the purely geometric method. These baselines formed the standards the standards of comparison in the accuracy assessment of the SRD method when compared to that of the range dynamic mode methods. On the basis of this comparison it was concluded that for baselines of regional extent the SRD method is very effective, efficient, and at least as accurate as the range dynamic mode methods, and that on the basis of a simple orbital modeling and a limited orbit adjustment. The SRD method is insensitive to the inconsistencies affecting the terrestrial reference frame and simultaneous adjustment of the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) is not necessary.
A methodology for automatic mathematical modeling and generating simulation models is described. The models will be verified by running in a test environment using standard profiles with the results compared against known results. The major objective is to create a user friendly environment for engineers to design, maintain, and verify their model and also automatically convert the mathematical model into conventional code for conventional computation. A demonstration program was designed for modeling the Space Shuttle Main Engine Simulation. It is written in LISP and MACSYMA and runs on a Symbolic 3670 Lisp Machine. The program provides a very friendly and well organized environment for engineers to build a knowledge base for base equations and general information. It contains an initial set of component process elements for the Space Shuttle Main Engine Simulation and a questionnaire that allows the engineer to answer a set of questions to specify a particular model. The system is then able to automatically generate the model and FORTRAN code. The future goal which is under construction is to download the FORTRAN code to VAX/VMS system for conventional computation. The SSME mathematical model will be verified in a test environment and the solution compared with the real data profile. The use of artificial intelligence techniques has shown that the process of the simulation modeling can be simplified.
An economical algorithm is presented for predicting the position of a satellite perturbed by drag and zonal harmonics J sub 2 through J sub 4. Simplicity being of the essence, drag is modeled as a secular decay rate in the semi-axis (retarded motion); with the zonal perturbations modeled from a modified version of the Brouwers formulas. The algorithm is developed as: an alternative on-board orbit predictor; a back up propagator requiring low energy consumption; or a ground based propagator for microcomputer applications (e.g., at the foot of an antenna). An O(J sub 2) secular retarded state partial matrix (matrizant) is also given to employ with state estimation. The theory was implemented in BASIC on an inexpensive microcomputer, the program occupying under 8K bytes of memory. Simulated trajectory data and real tracking data are employed to illustrate the theory's ability to accurately accommodate oblateness and drag effects.
The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction of severe storm environment and mesoscale convective systems over the United States is researched. Based upon the earlier numerical model simulation experiments, it is believed that such interaction can have a profound impact on the dynamics and thermodynamics of regional weather systems. The research will be carried out using real-data model forecast experiments performed on the Cray-X/MP computer. The forecasting system to be used is a comprehensive mesoscale prediction system which includes analysis and initialization, the dynamic model, and the post-forecast diagnosis codes. The model physics are currently undergoing many improvements in parameterizing radiation processes in the model atmosphere. The forecast experiments in conjunction with in-depth model verification and diagnosis are aimed at a quantitative understanding of the interaction between atmospheric radiation and regional dynamical processes in mesoscale models as well as in nature. Thus, significant advances in regional numerical weather prediction can be made. Results shall also provide valuable information for observational designs in the area of remote sensing techniques to study the characteristics of air-land thermal interaction and moist processes under various atmospheric conditions.
A first attempt is made to calculate the properties of the matter distribution in a universe filled with overlapping bubbles produced by multiple explosions. Each spherical shell follows the cosmological Sedov-Taylor solution until it encounters another shell. Thereafter, mergers are allowed to occur in pairs on the basis of N-body results. At the final epoch, the matrix of overlapping shells is populated with 'galaxies' and the properties of slices through the numerically constructed cube compare well with CfA survey results for specified initial conditions. A statistic is found which measures the distance distribution from uniformly distributed points to the nearest galaxies on the projected plane which appears to provide a good measure of the bubbly character of the galaxy distribution. In a quantitative analysis of the CfA 'slice of the universe', a very good match is found between simulation and the real data for final average bubble radii of (13.5 + or - 1.5)/h Mpc with formal filling factor 1.0-1.5 or actual filling factor of 65-80 percent.
The potential of a semidynamic method for an estimation of satellite position was investigated in a real data environment, using observations of Lageos collected during the MERIT campaign. In this method, quasi-simultaneous laser range observations of Lageos by pairs of stations were transformed to simultaneous range differences (SRDs), in order to reduce the effects of orbital and observational residual biases. Baselines obtained via the SRD method were compared to those obtained by the geometric method. It was found that, for baselines of regional extent, the SRD method is very efficient and at least as accurate as the more complex dynamic methods.
The design and testing of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for ground attitude determination, misalignment estimation and sensor calibration of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) are described. Attitude is represented by the quaternion of rotation and the attitude estimation error is defined as an additive error. Quaternion normalization is used for increasing the convergence rate and for minimizing the need for filter tuning. The development of the filter dynamic model, the gyro error model and the measurement models of the Sun sensors, the IR horizon scanner and the magnetometers which are used to generate vector measurements are also presented. The filter is applied to real data transmitted by ERBS sensors. Results are presented and analyzed and the EKF advantages as well as sensitivities are discussed. On the whole the filter meets the expected synergism, accuracy and robustness.
Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.
The mathematical relationships between the shape parameter Beta and estimates of reliability and a life limit lower bound for the two parameter Weibull distribution are investigated. It is shown that under rather general conditions, both the reliability lower bound and the allowable life limit lower bound (often called a tolerance limit) have unique global minimums over a range of Beta. Hence lower bound solutions can be obtained without assuming or estimating Beta. The existence and uniqueness of these lower bounds are proven. Some real data examples are given to show how these lower bounds can be easily established and to demonstrate their practicality. The method developed here has proven to be extremely useful when using the Weibull distribution in analysis of no-failure or few-failures data. The results are applicable not only in the aerospace industry but anywhere that system reliabilities are high.
The influence of ionospheric refraction on orbit determination was studied through the use of the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS). The results of a study of the orbital state estimate errors due to the ionospheric refraction corrections, particularly for measurements involving spacecraft-to-spacecraft tracking links, are presented. In current operational practice at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF), the ionospheric refraction effects on the tracking measurements are modeled in the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) using the Bent ionospheric model. While GTDS has the capability of incorporating the ionospheric refraction effects for measurements involving ground-to-spacecraft tracking links, such as those generated by the Ground Spaceflight Tracking and Data Network (GSTDN), it does not have the capability to incorporate the refraction effects for spacecraft-to-spacecraft tracking links for measurements generated by the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The lack of this particular capability in GTDS raised some concern about the achievable accuracy of the estimated orbit for certain classes of spacecraft missions that require high-precision orbits. Using an enhanced research version of GTDS, some efforts have already been made to assess the importance of the spacecraft-to-spacecraft ionospheric refraction corrections in an orbit determination process. While these studies were performed using simulated data or real tracking data in definitive orbit determination modes, the study results presented here were obtained by means of covariance analysis simulating the weighted least-squares method used in orbit determination.