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At least 721 records · Page 40

Convective Updraft and Downdraft Characteristics of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Model Gray Zone

Here, the "gray zone" of convective modeling is defined as the range of horizontal grid spacings (Δx) at which turbulent transport processes are only partially resolved by the dynamics of the numerical model. This zone typically covers Δx from a few kilometers to several hundred meters, wherein the realistic representation of convective cloud processes can be challenging. This study characterizes the convective draft behaviors at multiple Δx across the gray zone and determines the appropriate Δx that can reliably capture these salient convective properties. We perform an ensemble of idealized simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at various Δx from 4 km to 250 m over the central U.S. An evaluation of key MCS kinematic properties is constrained using unique, long-term vertical velocity estimates obtained by radar wind profilers deployed by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility. MCS simulations for all Δx tested overestimate (underestimate) the probabilities of convective updrafts (downdrafts) compared to the observations. In terms of the convective draft intensity, finer-Δx models overestimate the updraft intensity, while the opposite is found for downdrafts. Moving from Δx = 4 km to 250 m, downdrafts become stronger and more frequent especially at middle and upper levels, attributed to additional drag from an increasing graupel frequency and compensation of enhanced updraft velocity. Simulated draft characteristics, including core size, intensity, and probability of occurrence, exhibit pronounced changes at Δx greater than 500 m, but suggest less sensitivity when Δx is reduced below 500 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct dynamical and structural properties of marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds in the Eastern North Atlantic

Low-level clouds in a marine environment are examined using multiple ground-based instruments. Here, we used Doppler radar and Doppler lidar measurements (1) to examine cloud properties including cloud base and top height and thickness and (2) to investigate vertical velocity (w) statistics throughout the subcloud and in-cloud layers. Marine stratocumulus (Sc) and shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds have distinct properties in their horizontal and vertical extent. We also find that the two cloud types have different thermodynamic (coupled and decoupled conditions) and dynamical characteristics for the first four moments of the w distributions (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis). We identify a strong dependence of subcloud mean w on near-surface horizontal wind direction, implying that topographic effects exert a substantial impact on boundary layer dynamics and cloud properties at Graciosa Island. Our findings strongly suggest that care must be taken when interpreting island-based observations as representative of a generic marine dynamical environment. This information also can be useful for guiding and constraining the future global model development using observational dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grid Spacing Sensitivities of Simulated Mid-Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Convective Gray Zone

The main objective of this study is to observationally constrain processes in tropical and midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and to use these constraints for model evaluation. To accomplish this, we leverage MCS observations collected at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma and ARM's mobile GoAmazon2014/15 site in Manaus, Brazil (MAO). We simulate 13 and 11 of these observed MCSs at the SGP and MAO site, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 12-, 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal grid spacing. Observations from radiosondes, surface meteorology, and radar wind profilers are used to characterize MCS properties, such as MCS timing and location, cold pools, and convective drafts, and evaluate these simulations. SGP cases are found in better agreement with observations than MAO cases, and when simulated at 2 km, outperform simulations at 1 km regarding the timing of MCS overpass and the accuracy of surface variable trends. MAO simulations suggest a consistent improvement in model accuracy with increasing model resolution in depicting the downdraft structure, the timing of MCSs, and the surface variables changes, except for the latter two metrics at 2 km. Deficiencies are still evident at km-scales, suggesting the need for higher resolution to simulate tropical MCSs. Overall, location-dependent improvements in MCS representation are obtained with the increasing model resolution, prompting the evaluation of sub-km scale simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long‐Term Observations of Turbulence Vertical Velocity Spectra in a Convective Mixed Layer: Dependence on Land‐Surface Forcing in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Doppler lidar vertical velocity retrievals were analyzed for the scale and structure of mixed-layer turbulence over a 7-year period, on fair-weather warm season days (442 cases) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Based on the hypothesized influence of land-surface forcing and updraft size on convective boundary layer clouds, a spectral analysis was performed to quantify effects of surface forcing (surface buoyancy flux, friction velocity, and evaporative fraction) on turbulence scale. Significant (order-of-magnitude) variations in spectral density were found in the energy-production subrange and mesoscale regimes. Integral scale decreased with increasing buoyancy flux (and Monin-Obukhov stability parameter), while spectral density in the energy-production subrange increased, implying a transition to buoyancy-driven cellular structures with narrower updrafts. The influence of stability parameter was limited to the neutral to convective transition, and could not explain the wide variation in spectral density in the mesoscale regime. However, high friction velocity (u* > 0.5 m s –1 ) was associated with larger integral scale (updraft width), and a greater portion of spectral density in the mesoscale regime. Lidar profiles and radar reflectivity for individual cases revealed evidence of roll and wave-like structures contributing to mesoscale variability on high friction velocity days, suggesting shear instabilities on days with wetter land surface conditions and smaller buoyancy flux. The role of friction velocity emphasizes the multivariate nature of surface influences on turbulence, and implies that variance-based turbulence closures may not be adequate for capturing effects of surface forcing on updraft size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping the Spatial Footprint of Sea Breeze Winds in the Southeastern United States

Abstract Sea breeze winds are observed at various locations worldwide, but the spatially continuous mapping of sea breeze winds is rare. We have developed a scheme to map the areas of the southeastern United States (SEUS) coast influenced by sea breeze winds using a range of surface re‐analysis data to identify their occurrence. Changes in wind direction and dew point temperature are both used to detect a potential sea breeze signature, which is then confirmed by cumuliform clouds seen in satellite images or coastal fronts shown as cohesive lines in radar reflectivity images. Filters are employed to remove onshore winds not induced by the temperature difference between land and sea. From March to September 2019, this scheme identified 134 days with sea breeze occurrence somewhere in the SEUS, a frequency of 63 percent. The number of sea breezes increased from March to July and then decreased to September. Deep inland propagation of sea breezes during this period left footprints in a band parallel to the coastline up to about 220 km inland, after which the sea breeze winds quickly diminished. Comparisons show that the findings using the scheme are consistent with site observations, theoretical estimates, and idealized and semi‐idealized numerical model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Blowing Snow at McMurdo Station, Antarctica During the AWARE Field Campaign: Multi-Instrument Observations of Blowing Snow

In polar regions, blowing snow (BLSN) can play a substantial role in regional thermodynamics and radiation properties. The extent of the impact depends upon the depth of the BLSN layer, a property that is difficult to measure and not well understood. The West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) Field Campaign saw the deployment of a large suite of observational instruments to McMurdo Station, Antarctica, allowing for in-depth investigation of BLSN. During the year of the campaign, BLSN occurred ~7.4% of the time. In this study, additional remote sensing observations are used to supplement an existing ceilometer-based BLSN characterization algorithm creating a multi-instrument (MI) depth estimation algorithm to yield layer depths with more certainty. Backscatter coefficient and linear depolarization ratios from the micropulse and high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) are incorporated along with color ratio derived from HSRL backscatter and Ka-band radar reflectivity observations. This provided estimates of BLSN depth that were less impacted by noise/artifacts in any one set of observations. When applied to the data from AWARE, the MI algorithm yielded an average depth of 168.2 m with ~60% of plumes less than 200 m in depth. Events occurring with precipitation saw the most value in the additional instruments, with the suite of observations allowing for more separation of BLSN particles from fallstreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Contribution of Subtropical Moisture Within an Atmospheric River on Moisture Flux, Cloud Structure, and Precipitation Over the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho Using Moisture Tracers

The impact of an atmospheric river (AR) on the flux of subtropical moisture across Idaho's Salmon River Mountains and precipitation over the mountains is evaluated using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting model with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT). The AR impacted Idaho between 17 and 19 January 2017 during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign. WRF-WVT is configured to isolate the subtropical moisture contribution to the AR, the moisture flux, and precipitation. Subtropical water vapor advected by the AR into Idaho is tagged and tracked in three-dimensional space throughout the run. This allows the contribution of the subtropical moisture to the vertical distribution of water vapor and the precipitation to be directly calculated. The simulated cloud structure is compared with airborne radar data collected during two SNOWIE intensive operation periods. This study found that more than 70% of the moisture flux and more than 80% of the precipitation across the Idaho Mountains during SNOWIE IOP 4 could be attributed to subtropical moisture within the AR. Nearly all of the moisture flux in the upper cloud and 50% of the moisture in the lower cloud was attributable to the subtropical moisture. The subtropical moisture contribution within the AR to precipitation ranged from 35% in northern Idaho to more than 90% in southern Idaho. Across the entire period of impact of the AR, more than 60% of precipitation in Idaho was attributable to the subtropical moisture within the AR, with this percentage increasing toward the south across the state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Properties and Boundary Layer Stability Above Southern Ocean Sea Ice and Coastal Antarctica

Significant variability in climate predictions originates from the simulated cloud cover over the Southern Ocean. Historically, Southern Ocean cloud and aerosol properties have been less studied than their northern hemisphere counterparts, and cloud-sea-ice interactions over the Southern Ocean also remain largely unexamined. We used data from combined radar, lidar, radiometer, radiosonde, and ERA5 reanalysis profiles to investigate cloud property relationships to cloud temperature, sea-ice concentration, and boundary layer stability. Our findings show correlations between both cloud macrophysical properties and radiative effects and sea-ice concentration, and that the marine atmospheric boundary layer is more stable over higher sea-ice concentrations. Mixed-phase cloud frequency of occurrence was highest over the sea-ice zone at 15%, three times higher than over cold water south of the Antarctic Polar Front. For temperatures greater than –15°C, low-level, single-layer clouds were more likely to precipitate ice if they were coupled to cold-water or sea-ice surfaces than if they were decoupled from these surfaces, with the highest percentage of clouds precipitating ice observed over sea ice. These findings suggest a surface source of ice-nucleating particles at high southern latitudes that increases cloud glaciation probability. We discuss the implications of our results for future studies into the relationship between cloud properties, aerosols, sea ice, and boundary layer stability at high latitudes over the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical Structure of Clouds and Precipitation During Arctic Cold–Air Outbreaks and Warm–Air Intrusions: Observations From COMBLE

The Arctic is marked by deep intrusions of warm, moist air, alternating with outbreaks of cold air down to lower latitudes. The typical vertical structure of clouds and precipitation during these two synoptic weather extremes is examined at a coastal site at 69°N in Norway. The Norwegian Sea is a corridor for warm-air intrusions (WAIs) and frequently witnesses cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). This study uses data from profiling radar, lidar, and microwave radiometer, radiosondes and other probes that were collected during the CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) between 1 December 2019 and 31 May 2020. Marine CAOs are defined in terms of thermal instability relative to the sea surface temperature, and WAIs in terms of equivalent potential temperature stratification between the surface and 850 hPa. Cloud structures in CAOs are convective, driven by strong surface heat fluxes over a long fetch of open water, with cloud tops rarely exceeding 6 km above sea level. The mostly open-cellular convection produces intermittent moderately-heavy precipitation at the observational site, notwithstanding the low precipitable water vapor (PWV). In contrast, WAIs are marked by high values of PWV and integrated vapor transport. Here, WAI clouds are synoptically driven, stratiform, with cloud tops often exceeding 5 km, sometimes layered, and generally producing persistent precipitation that can be heavier than in CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud‐Resolving Scales

Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.

2012 North American derecho↗

Understanding the Influence of Urban Form on the Spatial Pattern of Precipitation

Urban areas are known to modify the spatial pattern of precipitation climatology. Existing observational evidence suggests that precipitation can be enhanced downwind of a city. Among the proposed mechanisms, the thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes in the urban lower atmosphere interact with the meteorological conditions and can play a key role in determining the resulting precipitation patterns. In addition, these processes are influenced by urban form, such as the impervious surface extent. This study aims to unravel how different urban forms impact the spatial patterns of precipitation climatology under different meteorological conditions. We use the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimation data products and analyze the hourly precipitation maps for 27 selected cities across the continental United States from the years 2015–2021 summer months. Results show that about 80% of the studied cities exhibit a statistically significant downwind enhancement of precipitation. Additionally, we find that the precipitation pattern tends to be more spatially clustered in intensity under higher wind speed; the location of radial precipitation maxima is located closer to the city center under low background winds but shifts downwind under high wind conditions. The magnitude of downwind precipitation enhancement is highly dependent on wind directions and is positively correlated with the city size for the south, southwest, and west directions. This study presents observational evidence through a cross-city analysis that the urban precipitation pattern can be influenced by the urban modification of atmospheric processes, providing insight into the mechanistic link between future urban land-use change and hydroclimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Spatial Melt Rate Variability Near the Totten Glacier Grounding Zone Explained by New Bathymetry Inversion

Totten Glacier is a fast-moving East Antarctic outlet with the potential for significant future sea-level contributions. We deployed four autonomous phase-sensitive radars on its ice shelf to monitor ice-ocean interactions near its grounding zone and made active source seismic observations to constrain gravity-derived bathymetry models. We observe an asymmetry in basal melting with mean melt rates along the grounding zone differing by up to 20 m/a. Our new bathymetry model reveals that this melt rate asymmetry coincides with an asymmetry in water column thickness and that the low-melting ice-shelf portion is shielded from the main cavity circulation. A 2-year record yields year-to-year melt rate variability of 7–9 m/a with no seasonal cycle. Our results highlight the key role of bathymetry near grounding lines for accurate modeling of ice-shelf melt, and the importance of sustained multi-year monitoring, especially at ice-shelf cavities where the dominant melt rate drivers vary primarily inter-annually.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Well Does the DOE Global Storm Resolving Model Simulate Clouds and Precipitation Over the Amazon?

This study assesses a 40-day 3.25-km global simulation of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Model (SCREAMv0) using high-resolution ground-based observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign. SCREAMv0 reasonably captures the diurnal timing of boundary layer clouds yet underestimates the boundary layer cloud fraction and mid-level congestus. SCREAMv0 well replicates the precipitation diurnal cycle, however it exhibits biases in the precipitation cluster size distribution compared to scanning radar observations. Specifically, SCREAMv0 overproduces clusters smaller than 128 km, and does not form enough large clusters. Such biases suggest an inhibition of convective upscale growth, preventing isolated deep convective clusters from evolving into larger mesoscale systems. This model bias is partially attributed to the misrepresentation of land-atmosphere coupling. This study highlights the potential use of high-resolution ground-based observations to diagnose convective processes in global storm resolving model simulations, identify key model deficiencies, and guide future process-oriented model sensitivity tests and detailed analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Basal Melting and Oceanic Observations Beneath Central Fimbulisen, East Antarctica

Abstract Basal melting of ice shelves is fundamental to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss, yet direct observations remain sparse. We present the first year‐round melt record (2017–2021) from a phase‐sensitive radar on Fimbulisen, one of the fastest flowing ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The observed long‐term mean ablation rate at 350 m depth below the central ice shelf was 1.0 ± 0.5 m yr −1 , marked by substantial sub‐weekly variability ranging from 0.4 to 3.5 m yr −1 . 36‐h filtered basal melt rate fluctuations closely align with ocean velocity. On seasonal time scales, melt rates peak during austral spring to autumn (September–March), driven by both elevated ocean velocities and thermal driving near the base. The combined effect of thermal driving and current speed explains the majority of the melt rate variability ( r = 0.84), highlighting the dominant role of shear‐driven turbulence. This relationship enables parameterization of melt rates for the decade‐long ocean record (2010–2021), although deviations appear under low and high forcing conditions. Both observed and parameterized melt rates show similar yearly mean magnitudes compared to satellite‐derived melt rates but with a tenfold lower seasonal amplitude and a 3‐month delay in seasonality. These detailed concurrent ice–ocean observations provide essential validation data for remote sensing and numerical models that aim to quantify and project ice‐shelf response to a change in ocean forcing. In situ measurements and continued monitoring are crucial for accurately assessing and modeling future basal melt rates, and for understanding the complex dynamics driving ice‐shelf stability and sea‐level change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) clouds exert a significant influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Here we analyzed ship-based remote sensing observations of SO clouds over a five-month long DOE ARM Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) field campaign to better understand cloud phase variability. We developed a method to classify eight categories of hydrometeors (ice, liquid, mixed phase, rain, drizzle, snow, aerosols, and clear sky) based on measurements of lidar, radar and radiosondes. Cloud thermodynamic phases (liquid, ice and mixed phase) at coarser scales were further derived to compare with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) simulation and the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) instrument simulator. For a scale-aware comparison with climate model simulations, we found that spatially averaging the raw remote sensing data (e.g., backscatter, reflectivity) results in increased cloud cover and cloud liquid, whereas, directly averaging cloud phase from higher to lower resolution maintains clear air regions and is thus recommended for in-cloud frequency comparisons. For cloud thermodynamic phases in stratiform clouds, the E3SM underestimates cloud ice and overestimates cloud liquid at temperatures between -40 and 0°C. When latitudes increase, both observations and simulations show a transition of dominant phase from liquid to ice for cloud tops as well as for the entire cloud columns, but the model underestimation of ice phase is more severe at higher latitudes. Such model bias is unlikely caused by spatial scale differences or lack of heterogeneity in cloud vertical structure in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Observed Effects of Cold Pools on Convection Triggering and Organization during DYNAMO/AMIE

Cold pools that form from existing convection can generate new clouds nearby, a process that has been suggested to contribute to cloud organization. However, some disagreement exists on the role of cold pools in cloud organization over tropical oceans, and much remains to be understood on how this role depends on the state of large-scale disturbances such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here, this study addresses this question by examining the intraseasonal variability in the properties of cold pools and their effects on convection triggering using observations. The unique set of surface meteorology data and ground-based radars deployed during the DYNAMO/AMIE field campaign are used to identify cold pools and the associated spatiotemporal evolution of rainfall. The results suggest that cold pools enhance rainfall at their expected speed of 3–8 m s –1 , which includes the Doppler-shifting effect by the background wind. The cold pools also enhance rainfall mainly within a 20 km radius, especially in the direction of boundary-layer vertical wind shear. However, gravity waves appear to contribute predominantly to the propagation of convection over a wider range of distances due to their faster propagation speeds. The interface of convection triggering and propagation at different speeds of cold pools and gravity waves seems to contribute to cloud organization. The effectiveness of cold pools and gravity waves on cloud organization also depends highly on the MJO due to the combined effects of changes in environmental humidity and boundary to lower-tropospheric wind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional variability in the environmental controls of precipitation regimes in the tropics

The environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning model. Radar-derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large-scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple machine learning model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg -1 . The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the DYNAMO domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lightning Characteristics Associated With Storm Modes Observed During RELAMPAGO

Global satellite studies show a maximum in deep convection and lightning downstream of the Andes in subtropical South America. The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign was designed to investigate the physical processes that contribute to the rapid development of deep convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in Argentina. A lightning mapping array (LMA) was deployed to Argentina as part of RELAMPAGO to collect lightning observations from extreme storms in the region. This study combines lightning data from the LMA and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper onboard GOES-16 with 1-km gridded radar data to examine the electrical characteristics of a variety of convective storms throughout their life cycle observed during RELAMPAGO. Results from the full campaign show 48% of flashes are associated with deep convection that occurs along the eastern edge of the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) overnight. These flashes are 65 km 2 smaller on average compared to stratiform flashes, which occur most frequently 50–100 km east of the SDC in the early morning hours, consistent with the upscale growth of MCSs off the terrain. Analysis of the 13–14 December MCS shows that sharp increases in flash rates correspond to deep and wide convective cores that have high graupel and hail mass, 35-dBZ volume, and ice water path. This work validates previous satellite studies of lightning in the region, but also provides higher spatial and temporal resolution information across the convective life cycle that has not been available in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗