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NASA NTRS2011

A Method to Estimate the Probability that any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within any Radius of any Point

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud to ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A description of the correlated k distributed method for modeling nongray gaseous absorption, thermal emission, and multiple scattering in vertically inhomogeneous atmospheres

A radiative transfer method for treating nongray gaseous absorption and thermal emission in vertically inhomogeneous multiple scattering atmospheres is described. Probability density distributions of absorption coefficient strength are derived from line-by-line calculations to construct line-by-line and band model based k distributions. The monotonic ordering of absorption coefficient strengths in these k distributions implicitly preserves the monochromatic structure of the atmosphere at different pressure levels, thus simulating monochromatic spectral integration at a fraction of the line-by-line computing cost. The k distribution approach also permits accurate modeling of overlapping absorption by different atmospheric gases and accurate treatment of nongray absorption in multiple scattering media. It is shown that the correlated k distribution method is capable of achieving numerical accuracy to within 1 percent of cooling rates obtained with line-by-line calculations throughout the troposphere and most of the stratosphere.

Lacis, Andrew A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Meteoroid capture into earth orbit by atmospheric drag

A probabilistic analysis, based on orbital mechanics, is performed to evaluate the chances of meteoroids entering into earth orbit and the potential population of such objects. The problem is addressed in terms of meteoroids on earth collision courses, slowed by atmosphere entry/exit, entering elliptical orbits with apogees above the atmosphere. The overall capture probability is derived by integrating the capture fraction dependence on velocity and size over the probability frequency distribution of the collision courses. Account is taken of eventual orbit decay, lunar infall and ejection after encounters with the moon. The results indicate that the probability that a natural 10-100 m diam object has achieved earth orbit is negligibly small.

Friedlander, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke Was Within Any Radius of Any Point

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station.

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Method to Estimate the Probability that Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within Any Radius of Any Point

Huddleston, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS2017

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

NASA NTRS1924

Interference of multiplane wings having elliptical lift distribution

In calculating the self-induction of a wing surface, elliptical lift distribution is assumed, while in calculating the mutual induction or interference of two wing surfaces, a uniform distribution of the lift along the wing has hitherto been assumed. Whether the results of these calculations are substantially altered by assuming an elliptical lift distribution (which is just as probable as uniform distribution) is examined here.

Von Sanden, H↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Lightning Stroke Contacted the Surface Within Any Radius of Any Point

A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Chromosome Model reveals Dynamic Redistribution of DNA Damage into Nuclear Sub-domains

Several proteins involved in the response to DNA double strand breaks (DSB) form microscopically visible nuclear domains, or foci, after exposure to ionizing radiation. Radiation-induced foci (RIF) are believed to be located where DNA damage is induced. To test this assumption, we analyzed the spatial distribution of 53BP1, phosphorylated ATM and gammaH2AX RIF in cells irradiated with high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. Since energy is randomly deposited along high-LET particle paths, RIF along these paths should also be randomly distributed. The probability to induce DSB can be derived from DNA fragment data measured experimentally by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. We used this probability in Monte Carlo simulations to predict DSB locations in synthetic nuclei geometrically described by a complete set of human chromosomes, taking into account microscope optics from real experiments. As expected, simulations produced DNA-weighted random (Poisson) distributions. In contrast, the distributions of RIF obtained as early as 5 min after exposure to high LET (1 GeV/amu Fe) were non-random. This deviation from the expected DNA-weighted random pattern can be further characterized by relative DNA image measurements. This novel imaging approach shows that RIF were located preferentially at the interface between high and low DNA density regions, and were more frequent in regions with lower density DNA than predicted. This deviation from random behavior was more pronounced within the first 5 min following irradiation for phosphorylated ATM RIF, while gammaH2AX and 53BP1 RIF showed very pronounced deviation up to 30 min after exposure. These data suggest the existence of repair centers in mammalian epithelial cells. These centers would be nuclear sub-domains where DNA lesions would be collected for more efficient repair.

Costes, Sylvain V.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The calculation of radial dose from heavy ions: predictions of biological action cross sections

The track structure model of heavy ion cross sections was developed by Katz and co-workers in the 1960s. In this model the action cross section is evaluated by mapping the dose-response of a detector to gamma rays (modeled from biological target theory) onto the radial dose distribution from delta rays about the path of the ion. This is taken to yield the radial distribution of probability for a "hit" (an interaction leading to an observable end-point). Radial integration of the probability yields the cross section. When different response from ions of different Z having the same stopping power is observed this model may be indicated. Since the 1960s there have been several developments in the computation of the radial dose distribution, in the measurement of these distributions, and in new radiobiological data against which to test the model. The earliest model, by Butts and Katz made use of simplified delta ray distribution functions, of simplified electron range-energy relations, and neglected angular distributions. Nevertheless it made possible the calculation of cross sections for the inactivation of enzymes and viruses, and allowed extension to tracks in nuclear emulsions and other detectors and to biological cells. It set the pattern for models of observable effects in the matter through which the ion passed. Here we outline subsequent calculations of radial dose which make use of improved knowledge of the electron emission spectrum, the electron range-energy relation, the angular distribution, and some considerations of molecular excitation, of particular interest both close to the path of the ion and the outer limits of electron penetration. These are applied to the modeling of action cross sections for the inactivation of several strains of E-coli and B. subtilis spores where extensive measurements in the "thin-down" region have been made with heavy ion beams. Such calculations serve to test the radial dose calculations at the outer limit of electron penetration. We lack data from which to test these calculations in regions close to the path of the ion aside from our earliest work on latent tracks in plastics, though it appears that the criterion then suggested for the threshold of track formation, of a minimal dose at a minimal distance (of about 20 angstroms, in plastics), remains valid.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the probability of magnification by cosmologically distributed gravitational lenses

An analytical method for calculating the statistical properties of source magnification caused by gravitational lenses randomly distributed throughout the universe is presented. Two lenses are considered at different redshifts to show that such an assumption is a statistically adequate approximation. The derived general formulas are applied to point-mass lenses with both point and extended sources. Analytical results of the magnification probability for point sources are accurate to within 10 percent in comparison with the available numerical simulations to moderate redshifts of less than about 2. In terms of the flux conservation, the results are accurate to within 18 percent at a redshift of 6 with respect to the Dyer-Roeder model of a clumpy universe. It is concluded that the present formulas are adequate for statistical studies of magnification by random gravitational lenses on cosmological scales.

Pei, Yichuan C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probability of Detecting Planets with Microlensing

The proposed research to determine the probability of detecting extra solar planets from the ground with microlensing was completely accomplished during the grant period. A summary of the publications and their abstracts follow below. The publications include: 1) On microlensing rates and optical depth toward the Galactic center; 2) Newly discovered brown dwarfs not seen in microlensing timescale frequency distribution? 3) Probability of detecting a planetary companion during a microlensing event; 4) Comparison of a ground-based microlensing search for planets with a search from space; 5) Secular evolution of hierarchical planetary systems.

Peale, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Uranium concentration and distribution in six peridotite inclusions of probable mantle origin

Fission-track activation was used to investigate uranium concentration and distribution in peridotite inclusions in alkali basalt from six localities. Whole-rock uranium concentrations range from 24 to 82 ng/g. Most of the uranium is uniformly distributed in the major silicate phases - olivine, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene. Chromian spinels may be classified into two groups on the basis of their uranium content - those which have less than 10 ng/g and those which have 100 to 150 ng/g U. In one sample accessory hydrous phases, phlogopite and hornblende, contain 130 and 300 ng/g U, respectively. The contact between the inclusion and the host basalt is usually quite sharp. Glassy or microcrystalline veinlets found in some samples contain more than 1 microgram/g. Very little uranium is associated with microcrystals of apatite. These results agree with some earlier investigators, who have concluded that suboceanic peridotites contain too little uranium to account for normal oceanic heat flow by conduction alone.

Haines, E. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Viking magnetic properties experiment - Extended mission results

The backhoe magnets on Viking Lander (VL) 2 were successfully cleaned, followed by a test involving successive insertions of the cleaned backhoe into the surface. Rapid saturation of the magnets confirmed evidence from primary mission results that the magnetic mineral in the Martian surface is widely distributed, most probably in the form of composite particles of magnetic and nonmagnetic minerals. An image of the VL 2 backhoe taken via the X4 magnifying mirror demonstrates the fine-grained nature of the attracted magnetic material. The presence of maghemite and its occurrence as a pigment in, or a thin coating on, all mineral particles or as discrete, finely divided and widely distributed crystallites, are consistent with data from the inorganic analysis experiments and with laboratory simulations of results of the biology experiments on Mars.

Hargraves, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Stochastic estimation of organized structures in turbulent channel flow

Linear stochastic estimation is used to approximate the conditional vector fields associated with high Reynolds stress producing events in numerically simulated turbulent channel flow. Joint probability density distributions of u-v are presented for y(+) between 1.35 and 180, and at each position the u-v values that make the greatest contributions to the average uv3 are used to define conditional ejection- and sweep-type events. In the y-z plane the conditional fields appear to be pairs of counter-rotating vortices. When the conditional event defined by the weighted probability density function is specified at a point close to the wall, the spacing and size of these eddies are consistent with the accepted wall streak spacing. As this point moves outwards, the eddy size increases significantly. An abrupt change in the flow angle occurs in the buffer layer and may indicate transition from streamwise oriented wall layer structures to hairpin vortices characterizing the outer layer.

Moin, P.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Summertime Coincident Observations of Ice Water Path in the Visible/Near-IR, Radar, and Microwave Frequencies

Accurate representation of the physical and radiative properties of clouds in climate models continues to be a challenge. At present, both remote sensing observations and modeling of microphysical properties of clouds rely heavily on parameterizations or assumptions on particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. In this study, we compare Ice Water Path (IWP), an important physical and radiative property that provides the amount of ice present in a cloud column, using measurements obtained via three different retrieval strategies. The datasets we use in this study include Visible/Near-IR IWP from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument flying aboard the Aqua satellite, Radar-only IWP from the CloudSat instrument operating at 94 GHz, and NOAA/NESDIS operational IWP from the 89 and 157 GHz channels of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) instrument flying aboard the NOAA-18 satellite. In the Visible/Near-IR, IWP is derived from observations of optical thickness and effective radius. CloudSat IWP is determined from measurements of cloud backscatter and assumed PSD. MHS IWP retrievals depend on scattering measurements at two different, non-water absorbing channels, 89 and 157 GHz. In order to compare IWP obtained from these different techniques and collected at different vertical and horizontal resolutions, we examine summertime cases in the tropics (30S - 30N) when all 3 satellites are within 4 minutes of each other (approximately 1500 km). All measurements are then gridded to a common 15 km x 15 km box determined by MHS. In a grid box comparison, we find CloudSat to report the highest IWP followed by MODIS, followed by MHS. In a statistical comparison, probability density distributions show MHS with the highest frequencies at IWP of 100-1000 g/m(exp 2) and CloudSat with the longest tail reporting IWP of several thousands g/m(exp 2). For IWP greater than 30 g/m(exp 2), MODIS is consistently higher than CloudSat, and it is higher at the lower IWPs but lower at the higher IWPs that overlap with MHS. Some of these differences can be attributed to the limitations of the measuring techniques themselves, but some can result from the assumptions made in the algorithms that generate the IWP product. We investigate this issue by creating categories based on various conditions such as cloud type, precipitation presence, underlying liquid water content, and surface type (land vs. ocean) and by comparing the performance of the IWP products under each condition.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

NASA NTRS1964

The probability density function for phase- difference estimates obtained from the envelopes of the sum and difference of two sine waves.

Probability density function of phase difference magnitude, using estimator having gain matched amplifiers

PHASE DEVIATION↗

NASA NTRS1959

Some effects of vibration and rotation on the drift of gyroscopic instruments

It is the purpose of this paper to describe and indicate possible analytical approaches to some of the most significant mechanisms by which vibration induced drifts may occur, and to indicate, where possible, some means of alleviating them. In all cases we will not consider gimbal bearing friction, mass unbalance or other sources of steady extraneous torques on the gyro rotor. The mechanisms to be discussed are: Non-Newtonian viscosity in single degree of freedom (SDF) integrating-rate gyros, nonisoelasticity in SDF gyros, noncommutative effects for SDF stabilized platform, gimbal inertia effects, 2 DF gyros, and spin axis torque coupling in 2 DF gyros. High-frequency elastic resonances are not discussed explicitly in detail, because they are a more familiar problem and one which depends strongly on the details of each particular gyro design.

Viscous Torque↗