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At least 721 records · Page 40

Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

Yang, J.-N.↗

Presenting the Rain-Sea Interaction Facility

The new Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) was established at GSFC/WFF and the first finds are presented. The unique feature of this laboratory is the ability to systematically study microwave scattering from a water surface roughened by artificial rain, for which the droplets are at terminal velocity. The fundamental instruments and systems (e.g., the rain simulator, scatterometers, and surface elevation probes) were installed and evaluated during these first experiments - so the majority of the data were obtained with the rain simulator at 1 m above the water tank. From these initial experiments, three new models were proposed: the square-root function for NCS vs. R, the log Gaussian model for ring-wave elevation frequency spectrum, and the Erland probability density distribution for back scattered power. Rain rate is the main input for these models, although the coefficients may be dependent upon other factors (drop-size distribution, fall velocity, radar configuration, etc.). The facility is functional and we foresee collaborative studies with investigators who are engaged in measuring and modeling rain-sea interaction processes.

Bliven, Larry F.↗

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

First Measurement of the Neutron-Emission Probability with a Surrogate Reaction in Inverse Kinematics at a Heavy-Ion Storage Ring

Neutron-induced reaction cross sections of short-lived nuclei are imperative to understand the origin of heavy elements in stellar nucleosynthesis and for societal applications, but their measurement is extremely complicated due to the radioactivity of the targets involved. One way of overcoming this issue is to combine surrogate reactions with the unique possibilities offered by heavy-ion storage rings. In this work, we describe the first surrogate-reaction experiment in inverse kinematics, which we successfully conducted at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) of the GSI/FAIR facility, using the 208 Pb⁢(p,p') reaction as a surrogate for neutron capture on 207 Pb. Thanks to the outstanding detection efficiencies possible at the ESR, we were able to measure for the first time the neutron-emission probability as a function of the excitation energy of 208 Pb. We have used this probability to select different descriptions of the γ -ray strength function and nuclear level density, and provide reliable results for the neutron-induced radiative capture cross section of 207 Pb at energies for which no experimental data exist.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Wave theory of turbulence in compressible media (acoustic theory of turbulence)

The generation and the transmission of sound in turbulent flows are treated as one of the several aspects of wave propagation in turbulence. Fluid fluctuations are decomposed into orthogonal Fourier components, with five interacting modes of wave propagation: two vorticity modes, one entropy mode, and two acoustic modes. Wave interactions, governed by the inhomogeneous and nonlinear terms of the perturbed Navier-Stokes equations, are modeled by random functions which give the rates of change of wave amplitudes equal to the averaged interaction terms. The statistical framework adopted is a quantum-like formulation in terms of complex distribution functions. The spatial probability distributions are given by the squares of the absolute values of the complex characteristic functions. This formulation results in nonlinear diffusion-type transport equations for the probability densities of the five modes of wave propagation.

Kentzer, C. P.↗

Wave theory of turbulence in compressible media

An acoustical theory of turbulence was developed to aid in the study of the generation of sound in turbulent flows. The statistical framework adopted is a quantum-like wave dynamical formulation in terms of complex distribution functions. This formulation results in nonlinear diffusion-type transport equations for the probability densities of the five modes of wave propagation: two vorticity modes, one entropy mode, and two acoustic modes. This system of nonlinear equations is closed and complete. The technique of analysis was chosen such that direct applications to practical problems can be obtained with relative ease.

Kentzer, C. P.↗

Atmospheric attenuation for correlated satellite communication ground sites

Link margin estimates are calculated for 30/20 GHz satellite communication systems employing closely-spaced (4 to 100 km) 'dual diversity' switched ground sites. The link margin estimates are based on a new analysis in which the bivariate rain attenuation density function for two correlated ground sites is modelled by an exponential density function. The results of the exponential density function analysis enable derivation of a direct relation between rain margin estimates and probability of exceedance (link availability). Margins typically in the range 2 to 12 dB are calculated for various ground site separations and summarized for seven city locations and five satellite orbit positions over the U.S. The results can be easily extended to other EHF satellite frequencies and other locations.

Christopher, P.↗

Wave packet motion in harmonic potential and computer visualization

Wave packet motions of a single electron in harmonic potentials or a magnetic field are obtained analytically. The phase of the wave function which depends on both time and space is also presented explicitly. The probability density of the electron changes its width and central position periodically. These results are visualized using computer animation techniques.

Tsuru, Hideo↗

TURBOMAT: A Probabilistic Turbomachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool

An integration of aeroelastic analysis procedures with probabilistic analysis methods enables us to design safe reliable engines with quantified reliability. Towards this goal, a graphical user interface (GUI) based tool that integrates the codes Aeroelastic analysis of propfans (ASTROP2) and Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) is developed. The tool entitled TURBOMachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool (TURBOMAT), is developed utilizing the MATrix Laboratory (Matlab) Guide (Graphical User Interface Development) tool box. TURBOMAT provides a user friendly computational environment for rapid assessment of Turbomachinery blades flutter characteristics, subjected to uncertain loading conditions with variability in material and aerodynamic properties. The tool is seen as an education tool for new students and young engineers starting their careers in structural Aeroelasticity who want to learn and understand aeroelastic aspects of turbomachinery components, fans, compressors and turbines, including uncertainties in loading and material properties.A typical fan blade configuration geometry was chosen to demonstrate the tool. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF), the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and sensitivity factors. Both first order fast probability integration (FPI) and the Monto Carlo (MC) techniques are used in the analysis and compared. The tool enabled us to quantify blade flutter reliability as well as the ranking of uncertain variables and their importance to blade flutter response.

Aeroelastic Analysis↗

Refining fast calorimeter simulations with a Schrödinger Bridge

Machine learning-based simulations, especially calorimeter simulations, are promising tools for approximating the precision of classical high energy physics simulations with a fraction of the generation time. Nearly all methods proposed so far learn neural networks that map a random variable with a known probability density, like a Gaussian, to realistic-looking events. In many cases, physics events are not close to Gaussian and so these neural networks have to learn a highly complex function. We study an alternative approach: Schrödinger bridge Quality Improvement via Refinement of Existing Lightweight Simulations (SQuIRELS). SQuIRELS leverages the power of diffusion-based neural networks and Schrödinger bridges to map between samples where the probability density is not known explicitly. We apply SQuIRELS to the task of refining a classical fast simulation to approximate a full classical simulation. On simulated calorimeter events, we find that SQuIRELS is able to reproduce highly non-trivial features of the full simulation with a fraction of the generation time.

Calorimeter methods↗

Noncollinear ground states of solids with a source-free exchange correlation functional

In this paper, we expand upon the source-free (SF) exchange correlation (XC) functional developed by Sangeeta Sharma and coworkers to plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) based on the projector augmented wave (PAW) method. This constraint is implemented by the current authors within the VASP source code, using a fast Poisson solver that capitalizes on the parallel three-dimensional fast Fourier transforms (FFTs) implemented in VASP. Using this modified XC functional, we explore the improved convergence behavior that results from applying this constraint to the GGA-PBE+U+J functional. In the process, we compare the noncollinear magnetic ground state computed by each functional and their SF counterpart for a select number of magnetic materials in order to provide a metric for comparing with experimentally determined magnetic orderings. We observe significantly improved agreement with experimentally measured magnetic ground-state structures after applying the source-free constraint. Furthermore, we explore the importance of considering probability current densities in spin-polarized systems, even under no applied field. We analyze the XC torque as well, in order to provide theoretical and computational analyses of the net XC magnetic torque induced by the source-free constraint. Along these lines, we highlight the importance of properly considering the real-space integral of the source-free local magnetic XC field. Our analyses on probability currents, net torque, and constant terms draw additional links to the rich body of previous research on spin-current density functional theory (SCDFT), and pave the way for future extensions and corrections to the SF corrected XC functional.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Lunar Surface Material - Spacecraft Measurements of Density and Strength

The relation of the density of the lunar surface layer to depth is probably best determined from spacecraft measurements of the bearing capacity as a function of depth. A comparison of these values with laboratory measurements of the bearing capacity of low-cohesion particulate materials as a function of the percentage of solid indicates that the bulk density at the lunar surface is about 1.1 grams per cubic centimeter and that it increases nearly linearly to about 1.6 grams per cubic centimeter at a depth of 5 centimeters.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Multimodal fission from self-consistent calculations

When multiple fission modes coexist in a given nucleus, distinct fragment yield distributions appear. Multimodal fission has been observed in a number of fissioning nuclei spanning the nuclear chart, and this phenomenon is expected to affect the nuclear abundances synthesized during the rapid neutron-capture process (𝑟-process). In this study, we generalize the previously proposed hybrid model for fission-fragment yield distributions to predict competing fission modes and estimate the resulting yield distributions. Here, our framework allows for a comprehensive large-scale calculation of fission-fragment yields suited for 𝑟-process nuclear network studies. Nuclear density functional theory is employed to obtain the potential energy and collective inertia tensor on a multidimensional collective space defined by mass multipole moments. Fission pathways and their relative probabilities are determined using the nudged elastic band method. Based on this information, mass and charge fission yields are predicted using the recently developed hybrid model. Fission properties of fermium isotopes are calculated in the axial quadrupole-octupole collective space for three energy density functionals (EDFs). Disagreement between the EDFs appears when multiple fission modes are present. Within our framework, the UNEDF⁢1 HFB EDF agrees best with experimental data. Calculations in the axial quadrupole-octupole-hexadecapole collective space improve the agreement with the experiment for SkM*. We also discuss the sensitivity of fission predictions on the choice of EDF for several superheavy nuclei. Fission-fragment yield predictions for nuclei with multiple fission modes are sensitive to the underlying EDF. For large-scale calculations in which a minimal number of collective coordinates is considered, UNEDF⁢1 HFB provides the best description of experimental data, though the sensitivity motivates robust quantification of the uncertainties of the theoretical model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Probabilities for gravitational lensing by point masses in a locally inhomogeneous universe

Probability functions for gravitational lensing by point masses that incorporate Poisson statistics and flux conservation are formulated in the Dyer-Roeder construction. Optical depths to lensing for distant sources are calculated using both the method of Press and Gunn (1973) which counts lenses in an otherwise empty cone, and the method of Ehlers and Schneider (1986) which projects lensing cross sections onto the source sphere. These are then used as parameters of the probability density for lensing in the case of a critical (q0 = 1/2) Friedmann universe. A comparison of the probability functions indicates that the effects of angle-averaging can be well approximated by adjusting the average magnification along a random line of sight so as to conserve flux.

Isaacson, Jeffrey A.↗

Quantified limits of the nuclear landscape

The chart of the nuclides is limited by particle drip lines beyond which nuclear stability to proton or neutron emission is lost. Predicting the range of particle-bound isotopes poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it involves extreme extrapolations of nuclear masses well beyond the regions where experimental information is available. Still, quantified extrapolations are crucial for a wide variety of applications, including the modeling of stellar nucleosynthesis. We use microscopic nuclear global mass models, current mass data, and Bayesian methodology to provide quantified predictions of proton and neutron separation energies as well as Bayesian probabilities of existence throughout the nuclear landscape all the way to the particle drip lines. Here, we apply nuclear density functional theory with several energy density functionals. We also consider two global mass models often used in astrophysical nucleosynthesis simulations. To account for uncertainties, Bayesian Gaussian processes are trained on the separation-energy residuals for each individual model, and the resulting predictions are combined via Bayesian model averaging. This framework allows to account for systematic and statistical uncertainties and propagate them to extrapolative predictions. We establish and characterize the drip-line regions where the probability that the nucleus is particle- bound decreases from 1 to 0. In these regions, we provide quantified predictions for one- and two-nucleon separation energies. According to our Bayesian model averaging analysis, 7759 nuclei with Z ≤ 119 have a probability of existence ≥ 0.5. The extrapolation results obtained in this study will be put through stringent tests when new experimental information on existence and masses of exotic nuclei becomes available. In this respect, the quantified landscape of nuclear existence obtained in this study should be viewed as a dynamical prediction that will be fine-tuned when new experimental information and improved global mass models become available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Synoptic observations of Jupiter's radio emissions: Average Statistical properties observed by Voyager

Observations of Jupiter's low frequency radio emissions collected over one month intervals before and after each Voyager encounter were analyzed. Compilations of occurrence probability, average power flux density and average sense of circular polarization are presented as a function of central meridian longitude, phase of Io, and frequency. The results are compared with ground based observations. The necessary geometrical conditions are preferred polarization sense for Io-related decametric emission observed by Voyager from above both the dayside and nightside hemispheres are found to be essentially the same as are observed in Earth based studies. On the other hand, there is a clear local time dependence in the Io-independent decametric emission. Io appears to have an influence on average flux density of the emission down to below 2 MHz. The average power flux density spectrum of Jupiter's emission has a broad peak near 9MHz. Integration of the average spectrum over all frequencies gives a total radiated power for an isotropic source of 4 x 10 to the 11th power W.

Alexander, J. K.↗

Synoptic observations of Jupiter's radio emissions - Average statistical properties observed by Voyager

Observations of Jupiter's low-frequency radio emissions collected over one-month intervals before and after each Voyager encounter are analyzed to provide a synoptic view of the average statistical properties of the emissions. Compilations of occurrence probability, average power flux density, and average sense of circular polarization are given as a function of central meridian longitude, phase of Io, and frequency. The results are then compared with ground-based observations. The necessary geometric conditions and preferred polarization sense for Io-related decametric emission observed by Voyager from above both the dayside and nightside hemispheres are found to be basically the same as those observed in earth-based studies.

Alexander, J. K.↗

Communication Limits Due to Photon-Detector Jitter

A theoretical and experimental study was conducted of the limit imposed by photon-detector jitter on the capacity of a pulse-position-modulated optical communication system in which the receiver operates in a photon-counting (weak-signal) regime. Photon-detector jitter is a random delay between impingement of a photon and generation of an electrical pulse by the detector. In the study, jitter statistics were computed from jitter measurements made on several photon detectors. The probability density of jitter was mathematically modeled by use of a weighted sum of Gaussian functions. Parameters of the model were adjusted to fit histograms representing the measured-jitter statistics. Likelihoods of assigning detector-output pulses to correct pulse time slots in the presence of jitter were derived and used to compute channel capacities and corresponding losses due to jitter. It was found that the loss, expressed as the ratio between the signal power needed to achieve a specified capacity in the presence of jitter and that needed to obtain the same capacity in the absence of jitter, is well approximated as a quadratic function of the standard deviation of the jitter in units of pulse-time-slot duration.

Moision, Bruce E.↗