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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation of computing systems using functionals of a Stochastic process

An intermediate model was used to represent the probabilistic nature of a total system at a level which is higher than the base model and thus closer to the performance variable. A class of intermediate models, which are generally referred to as functionals of a Markov process, were considered. A closed form solution of performability for the case where performance is identified with the minimum value of a functional was developed.

Meyer, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interactive Reliability Model for Whisker-toughened Ceramics

Wider use of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) will require the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. The use of an interactive model to predict the time-independent reliability of a component subjected to multiaxial loads is discussed. The deterministic, three-parameter Willam-Warnke failure criterion serves as the theoretical basis for the reliability model. The strength parameters defining the model are assumed to be random variables, thereby transforming the deterministic failure criterion into a probabilistic criterion. The ability of the model to account for multiaxial stress states with the same unified theory is an improvement over existing models. The new model was coupled with a public-domain finite element program through an integrated design program. This allows a design engineer to predict the probability of failure of a component. A simple structural problem is analyzed using the new model, and the results are compared to existing models.

Palko, Joseph L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A knowledge-informed large language model framework for U.S. nuclear power plant shutdown initiating event classification for probabilistic risk assessment

Identifying and classifying shutdown initiating events (SDIEs) is critical for developing shutdown probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. Existing computational approaches cannot achieve satisfactory performance due to the challenges of unavailable large, labeled datasets, imbalanced event types, and label noise. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid pipeline that integrates a knowledge-informed machine learning model to prescreen non-SDIEs and a large language model (LLM) to classify SDIEs into four types. In the prescreening stage, we proposed a set of 44 SDIE text patterns that consist of the most salient keywords and phrases from six SDIE types. Text vectorization based on the SDIE patterns generates feature vectors that are highly separable by using a simple binary classifier. The second stage builds Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based LLM, which learns generic English language representations from self-supervised pretraining on a large dataset and adapts to SDIE classification by fine-tuning it on an SDIE dataset. The proposed approaches are evaluated on a dataset with 10,928 events using precision, recall ratio, F 1 score, and average accuracy. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that the prescreening stage can exclude more than 97% non-SDIEs, and the LLM achieves an average accuracy of 95.1% for SDIE classification.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Failure Criterion of SiC/SiC Composites Under Multiaxial Loading

Owing to its excellent mechanical properties and stability under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions, SiC/SiC composites have emerged as a promising material for light water reactors (LWRs) in the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) systems. Structural integrity and retention of hermeticity are two crucial requirements for SiC/SiC claddings during normal operations, and both of them are closely related to the proportional limit stress (PLS) of the material. Understanding the behavior of SiC/SiC composites under multiaxial stress states and developing a probabilistic approach for evaluating the structural vulnerability are of paramount importance for reliability-based analysis and design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. So far, there has been very limited effort towards experimental and analytical investigations of probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC claddings. This critical knowledge gap motivates this research. A probabilistic failure criterion for SiC/SiC composites under multi-axial loading is developed, and this criterion is incorporated into reliability analysis of the structural integrity of SiC/SiC fuel cladding. The research consists of two parts: 1) experimental investigation of multiaxial failure behavior of SiC/SiC composites, and 2) theoretical modeling of time-dependent probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC cladding. In the experimental investigation, the PLS is determined through the examination of stress-strain response, the acoustic emission measurement, as well as the X-ray computed tomography. The theoretical framework is derived by combin- ing the finite weakest-link statistical model and the subcritical damage growth model. This theoretical model captures the time-dependent failure mechanism of the material, which has a major consequence for predicting the lifetime distribution of the cladding. Meanwhile, the model also predicts that the failure statistics of the cladding depends strongly on the cladding length. The results of the multiaxial experiments reveal the level of statistical variation of the PLS of SiC/SiC materials under different stress states. The theoretical model provides a robust analytical tool for extrapolation of small-scale laboratory test results to the behavior of full-scale claddings. These findings establish a scientific foundation for the development of reliability-based design of SiC/SiC fuel claddings, which will play an essential role in improving the structural safety and integrity of LWRs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forte: An Interactive Visual Analytic Tool for Trust-Augmented Net-Load Forecasting

Accurate net-load forecasting is vital for energy planning, aiding decisions on trade and load distribution. However, assessing the performance of forecasting models across diverse input variables, like temperature and humidity, remains challenging, particularly for eliciting a high degree of trust in the model outcomes. In this context, there is a growing need for data-driven technological interventions to aid scientists in comprehending how models react to both noisy and clean input variables, thus shedding light on complex behaviors and fostering confidence in the outcomes. In this paper, we present Forte, a visual analytics-based application to explore deep probabilistic net-load forecasting models across various input variables and understand the error rates for different scenarios. With carefully designed visual interventions, this web-based interface empowers scientists to derive insights about model performance by simulating diverse scenarios, facilitating an informed decision-making process. We discuss observations made using Forte and demonstrate the effectiveness of visualization techniques to provide valuable insights into the correlation between weather inputs and net-load forecasts, ultimately advancing grid capabilities by improving trust in forecasting models.

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid Cyber-Security Strategy in an Attacker-Defender Model

The progression of cyber-attacks on the cyber-physical system is analyzed by the Probabilistic, Learning Attacker, and Dynamic Defender (PLADD) model. Although our research does apply to all cyber-physical systems, we focus on power grid infrastructure. The PLADD model evaluates the effectiveness of moving target defense (MTD) techniques. We consider the power grid attack scenarios in the AND configurations and OR configurations. In addition, we consider, for the first time ever, power grid attack scenarios involving both AND configurations and OR configurations simultaneously. Cyber-security managers can use the strategy introduced in this manuscript to optimize their defense strategies. Specifically, our research provides insight into when to reset access controls (such as passwords, internet protocol addresses, and session keys), to minimize the probability of a successful attack. Our mathematical proof for the OR configuration of multiple PLADD games shows that it is best if all access controls are reset simultaneously. For the AND configuration, our mathematical proof shows that it is best (in terms of minimizing the attacker's average probability of success) that the resets are equally spaced apart. We introduce a novel concept called hierarchical parallel PLADD system to cover additional attack scenarios that require combinations of AND and OR configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Watkins, T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The composite load spectra project

Probabilistic methods and generic load models capable of simulating the load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components are being developed. Four engine component types (the transfer ducts, the turbine blades, the liquid oxygen posts and the turbopump oxidizer discharge duct) were selected as representative hardware examples. The composite load spectra that simulate the probabilistic loads for these components are typically used as the input loads for a probabilistic structural analysis. The knowledge-based system approach used for the composite load spectra project provides an ideal environment for incremental development. The intelligent database paradigm employed in developing the expert system provides a smooth coupling between the numerical processing and the symbolic (information) processing. Large volumes of engine load information and engineering data are stored in database format and managed by a database management system. Numerical procedures for probabilistic load simulation and database management functions are controlled by rule modules. Rules were hard-wired as decision trees into rule modules to perform process control tasks. There are modules to retrieve load information and models. There are modules to select loads and models to carry out quick load calculations or make an input file for full duty-cycle time dependent load simulation. The composite load spectra load expert system implemented today is capable of performing intelligent rocket engine load spectra simulation. Further development of the expert system will provide tutorial capability for users to learn from it.

Newell, J. F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MEDPRAT Treatment Clusters: Improving Representation of Mission Medical Risk

INTRODUCTION The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) implements a computational model that aims to quantify spaceflight medical risk by utilizing probabilistic techniques to simulate critical event incidence and outcomes over thousands of simulated mission trials. The goal of MEDPRAT is to characterize mission medical risk and provide insight into medical resource utilization. In order to analyze the medical resource space, treatment must be mapped from each simulated condition, and resources consumed as a result of this treatment must be tracked throughout the course of the mission. A new MEDPRAT feature, ‘treatment clusters’, provide a more sophisticated method of defining the structure and interaction between resources, more closely mimicking the way treatment is carried out clinically. METHODS Treatment clusters expand on the two existing treatment groupings (combination and alternate) adding a new grouping: bundled treatment. Treatment clusters may be combined to any depth, giving users the ability to specify complex treatment trees whose behavior is governed by several user-specified parameters. This approach emphasizes reusability, as treatment clusters, once defined, can be used to create more complex treatment trees or applied to many conditions. By configuring parameters for contribution, efficacy, necessity, primacy, and equivalence, resource relationships and dependencies can be more accurately represented, thereby allowing users to build capabilities with desired treatment properties, for example an intravenous capability for conditions such as anaphylaxis, acute radiation syndrome, etc. MEDPRAT v1.0 remains backward compatible with existing treatment structures, giving users the ability to define new treatment clusters as evidence becomes available, without having to recode their existing treatment databases. In addition to facilitating the representation of more complex treatment options, by pairing treatment clusters with the internal optimization routine, the MEDPRAT set selector, medical resources can be identified as organized in bundles, where appropriate, so that optimized resource sets include groups of highly-dependent resources only when all resources of the group are together. For example, it would be wasteful to include ultrasound gel but not an ultrasound machine, since the gel provides no benefit as a treatment without the ultrasound machine. With treatment clusters, the user may require that both resources are available to provide any benefit as treatment, so that if one resource is optimized out of the set, the other resource will be optimized out as well. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We will report on MEDPRAT treatment clusters used in a bundling study under the IMPACT project of the ExMC element. We will discuss an example of a complex treatment tree. Through the implementation of this feature MEDPRAT enables treatment to be defined and applied in a way that is more representative of the real world, providing more accurate insight into mission medical risk and the medical resource space.

Lawrence Leinweber↗
DOE OSTI2020

EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF MULTI-ZONE BUILDING AND HVAC SYSTEM MODELS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This study implemented a framework of empirical validation of building energy models under uncertainty to a set of controlled experiments that aim to validate multi-zone building and HVAC system models. Energy models were created through iterative acquisitions of information and data and uses measurement data from various types of sensors as both inputs and as observations to validate predictions. Experimental and modeling uncertainties were quantified and propagated accordingly, and probabilistic accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the agreement between model predictions and observations under uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential uncertainties that will be prioritized to be addressed in the next steps. Current results of two cooling tests show an overall good agreement between predictions and observations on a set of HVAC system outputs despite considerable and influential uncertainty in DX cooling coil COP. Agreements on zone-level responses vary notably among individual rooms, likely because of significant uncertainties in room radiation heat gain and system supply air.

Li, Qi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, part 3: Spatiotemporal probabilistic physics-of-failure analysis and its connection to safety and financial performance

Here, this paper is a byproduct of a line of research by the authors to analyze interrelationships of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The result of this line of research is summarized in three parts: Part 1 covers a categorical review of relevant literature and the theoretical bases that support the methodological developments in Part 2. Part 2 introduces an Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework to quantify the interconnections of safety and financial performance with a focus on operation and maintenance (O&M) of NPPs. Part 2 has also demonstrated the applicability and values of the I-ERM methodology through an NPP case study. This paper is Part 3, where detailed development and implementation of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., probabilistic physics-of-failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with safety and financial performance is reported. In this article, the physical failure modeling for hardware components is advanced by incorporating finite element analysis (FEA) into PPoF analysis and coupling the FEA-based PPoF with the maintenance performance through a renewal process model. This article covers two scientific contributions: (i) first-of-its-kind incorporation of FEA into the PPoF model of thermal fatigue for NPP components; and (ii) advancing the interface between the PPoF analysis and the renewal process model in order to deal with spatiotemporal FEA outputs and to efficiently estimate the physical transition rates even when the PPoF outputs are dominated by success data. Through the incorporation of FEA, the resolution of the PPoF analysis is enhanced as spatiotemporal conditions such as stress and temperature can be considered explicitly instead of relying on simplified assumptions or analytical models with reduced spatiotemporal dimensions. To demonstrate an application of the FEA-based PPoF analysis and its coupling with maintenance through the renewal process model, a case study is conducted using excess letdown elbow piping in the chemical and volume control system of a Pressurized Water Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable Data-Driven Probabilistic Power System Load Margin Assessment with Uncertain Renewable Energy and Loads

The increasing uncertainties caused by the high-penetration of stochastic renewable generation resources poses a significant threat to the power system voltage stability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic deep kernel learning enabled surrogate model to extract the hidden relationship between uncertain sources, i.e., wind power and loads, and load margin for probabilistic load margin assessment (PLMA). Unlike other deep learning approaches, a kernel SHAP provides the sensitivity analysis as well as interpretability of the inputs to outputs influences. This allows identifying the critical factors that affect load margin so that corrective control can be initiated for stability enhancement. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 118-bus power system demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed data-driven PLMA scheme.

deep kernel learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generative large language models for predictive maintenance planning

Maintenance planning and the generation of necessary components for tasks can prove time-consuming and complex. Automating the creation of recurring or similar tasks by leveraging previous planning packages and data, while uncovering insights to automate planning package generation, presents an opportunity to conserve valuable time and resources. This work aims to harness the textual and probabilistic capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to automate the generation of planning packages. Utilizing diverse data sources ranging from raw data to handwritten text, both singular and collaborative LLMs are trained and tested. Results demonstrate their capability to generate essential planning package components, effectively replicating the statistical patterns in the data. This demonstrates the use of these tools inside a digital asset for automated planning. This work outlines a methodology for constructing datasets, a training suite, and evaluation methods for LLM-based textual and conversational planning tools utilized in an asset digital twin. Results indicate that the fine-tuned models generate estimated planning information within the statistical ranges observed in real maintenance data. The models achieve high accuracy (>90%) in document question-answering and instruction generation tasks. Furthermore, the conversational retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) assistant system achieves 100% document retrieval accuracy, while conversational information capture exceeds 98% across the majority of work-package assistant modules.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Generation of Event Trees and Fault Trees: A Model-Based Approach

In the past few decades, the increasing complexity of modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components whose operations may involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal hydraulics, plant operations, cybersecurity). Most computational tools used by industry and regulators for system safety and reliability assessments are still based on the traditional fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) approach, which may not be able to capture complex interactions among system constituents. The use of simulation tools has widely increased in the past few decades to improve the fidelity of the reliability and safety analyses. However, the direct use of simulation tools as part of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) methods is not getting traction since (1) modeling the whole system under consideration with DPRA methods may be computationally expensive and unnecessary, and (2) the manual integration of DPRA models into existing state-of-practice probabilistic risk assessment models (i.e., based on FTs and ETs) can be time consuming and prone to errors. Here, in this paper we propose a procedure to overcome this limitation by presenting several algorithms designed to automatically construct subsystem ETs and FTs from DPRA methods for integration into an existing ET/FT system model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗