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Far-from-equilibrium slow modes and momentum anisotropy in expanding plasma

The momentum distribution of particle production in heavy-ion collisions encodes information about thermalization processes in the early-stage quark-gluon plasma. We use kinetic theory to study the far-from-equilibrium evolution of an expanding plasma with an anisotropic momentumspace distribution. We identify slow and fast degrees of freedom in the far-from-equilibrium plasma from the evolution of moments of this distribution. At late times, the slow modes correspond to hydrodynamic degrees of freedom and are naturally gapped from the fast modes by the inverse of the relaxation time, $τ$$^{–1}_{R}$. At early times, however, there are an infinite number of slow modes with a gap inversely proportional to time, τ –1 . From the evolution of the slow modes we generalize the paradigm of the far-from-equilibrium attractor to vector and tensor components of the energy momentum tensor, and even to higher moments of the distribution function that are not part of the hydrodynamic evolution. We predict that initial-state momentum anisotropy decays slowly in the far-from-equilibrium phase and may persist until the relaxation time.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identification and Characterization of Persistent Cold Pool Events from Temperature and Wind Profilers in the Columbia River Basin

Cold pool events occur when deep layers of stable, cold air remain trapped in a valley or basin for multiple days, without mixing out from daytime heating. With large impacts on air quality, freezing events, and es-pecially on wind energy production, they are often poorly forecast by modern mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding the characteristics of cold pools is, therefore, important to provide more accurate forecasts. This study analyzes cold pool characteristics with data collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which took place in the Columbia River basin and Gorge of Oregon and Washington from fall 2015 until spring 2017. A subset of the instrumentation included three microwave radiometer pro?lers, six radar wind pro?lers with radio acoustic sounding systems, and seven sodars, which together provided seven sites with collocated vertical pro?les of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Using these collocated observations, we developed a set of criteria to determine if a cold pool was present based on stability, wind speed, direction, and temporal continuity, and then developed an automated algorithm based on these criteria to identify all cold pool events over the 18 months of the ?eld project. Characteristics of these events are described, including statistics of the wind speed distributions and pro?les, stability conditions, cold pool depths, and descent rates of the cold pool top. The goal of this study is a better understanding of these characteristics and their processes to ultimately lead to improved physical parameterizations in NWP models, and consequently improve forecasts of cold pool events in the study region as well at other locations that experiences similar events.

McCaffrey, Katherine L.↗

Far-from-equilibrium slow modes and momentum anisotropy in an expanding plasma

The momentum distribution of particle production in heavy-ion collisions encodes information about thermalization processes in the early-stage quark-gluon plasma. We use kinetic theory to study the far-from-equilibrium evolution of an expanding plasma with an anisotropic momentum-space distribution. We identify slow and fast degrees of freedom in the far-from-equilibrium plasma from the evolution of moments of this distribution. At late times, the slow modes correspond to hydrodynamic degrees of freedom and are naturally gapped from the fast modes by the inverse of the relaxation time, τ R − 1 . At early times, however, there are an infinite number of slow modes with a gap inversely proportional to time, τ − 1 . From the evolution of the slow modes we generalize the paradigm of the far-from-equilibrium attractor to vector and tensor components of the energy-momentum tensor, and even to higher moments of the distribution function that are not part of the hydrodynamic evolution. We predict that initial-state momentum anisotropy decays slowly in the far-from-equilibrium phase and may persist until the relaxation time. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Brewer, Jasmine (ORCID:0000000230840663)↗

Structure-Based Engineering of Irreversible Inhibitors against Histone Lysine Demethylase KDM5A

The active sites of hundreds of human α-ketoglutarate (αKG) and Fe(II)-dependent dioxygenases are exceedingly well preserved, which challenges the design of selective inhibitors. In this work we identified a noncatalytic cysteine (Cys481 in KDM5A) near the active sites of KDM5 histone H3 lysine 4 demethylases, which is absent in other histone demethylase families, that could be explored for interaction with the cysteine-reactive electrophile acrylamide. We synthesized analogs of a thienopyridine-based inhibitor chemotype, namely, 2-((3-aminophenyl)(2-(piperidin-1-yl)ethoxy)methyl)thieno[3,2-b]- pyridine-7-carboxylic acid (N70) and a derivative containing a (dimethylamino)but-2-enamido)phenyl moiety (N71) designed to form a covalent interaction with Cys481. We characterized the inhibitory and binding activities against KDM5A and determined the cocrystal structures of the catalytic domain of KDM5A in complex with N70 and N71. Whereas the noncovalent inhibitor N70 displayed αKG-competitive inhibition that could be reversed after dialysis, inhibition by N71 was dependent on enzyme concentration and persisted even after dialysis, consistent with covalent modification.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Discovery and structural characterization of a small molecule 14-3-3 protein-protein interaction inhibitor

The 14-3-3 family of phosphoserine/threonine-recognition proteins engage multiple nodes in signaling networks that control diverse physiological and pathophysiological functions and have emerged as promising therapeutic targets for such diseases as cancer and neurodegenerative disorders. Thus, small molecule modulators of 14-3-3 are much needed agents for chemical biology investigations and therapeutic development. To analyze 14-3-3 function and modulate its activity, we conducted a chemical screen and identified 4-[(2Z)-2-[4-formyl-6-methyl-5-oxo-3-(phosphonatooxymethyl)pyridin-2-ylidene]hydrazinyl]benzoate as a 14-3-3 inhibitor, which we termed FOBISIN (FOurteen-three-three BInding Small molecule INhibitor) 101. FOBISIN101 effectively blocked the binding of 14-3-3 with Raf-1 and proline-rich AKT substrate, 40 kD{sub a} and neutralized the ability of 14-3-3 to activate exoenzyme S ADP-ribosyltransferase. To provide a mechanistic basis for 14-3-3 inhibition, the crystal structure of 14-3-3{zeta} in complex with FOBISIN101 was solved. Unexpectedly, the double bond linking the pyridoxal-phosphate and benzoate moieties was reduced by X-rays to create a covalent linkage of the pyridoxal-phosphate moiety to lysine 120 in the binding groove of 14-3-3, leading to persistent 14-3-3 inactivation. We suggest that FOBISIN101-like molecules could be developed as an entirely unique class of 14-3-3 inhibitors, which may serve as radiation-triggered therapeutic agents for the treatment of 14-3-3-mediated diseases, such as cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of shared viral sequences in peat moss metagenomes reveals elements of a possible Sphagnum core virome

Viruses are an understudied component of plant microbiomes. Identifying viruses that are shared between individual plants, or members of the “core virome”, could reveal stable viral populations with the potential to modulate the composition and function of the microbiome. Here, we examined the virome associated with Sphagnum mosses, a keystone species that has direct influence over the fate of peatland carbon stores. We analyzed bulk metagenomes and metatranscriptomes generated from Sphagnum field samples collected over a ten-month period to identify virus-like sequences shared among plants. Individual Sphagnum samples harbored distinct DNA and RNA viromes where only a small percentage (< 1%) of the total number of identified viral contigs were shared among all samples. Based on taxonomic classification, the shared viral contigs represent bacterial viruses, or phage (Caudoviricetes), as well as viruses of eukaryotes, namely nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (Nucleocytoviricota) and RNA viruses (Riboviria). We linked the shared phage-like contigs to viral regions within sequenced genomes of bacterial taxa that are members of the Sphagnum core microbiome, suggesting that these contigs represent temperate phage or degraded prophage. The putative nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses and RNA viruses were phylogenetically diverse and showed sequence similarity to viruses associated with a broad range of hosts and environmental sources. The identification of shared viral contigs suggested that, despite the compositional heterogeneity between samples, Sphagnum mosses may harbor a core virome. Future work validating the presence of the core virome is warranted as it may aid in understanding how persistent viruses impact microbiome ecology and symbiont evolution within this climatically relevant keystone species.

Metagenomics↗

A Scaling Study of Microbially-Enhanced Methane Production From Coal (Mecbm): Optimizing Nutrient Delivery For Maximized Methane Production

Microbially-enhanced coalbed methane (MECBM) recovery is a novel method to stimulate gas production in CBM reservoirs. We first develop suitable nutrient recipes for native coals from sites each in the Illinois Basin and in the San Juan Basin. The optimal concentrations for statistically significant parameters are identified and the methane yields at laboratory scale are obtained (Part I & II). We then demonstrate the importance of replicating truly in-situ conditions for bio- gasification studies by investigating methane productivity in a core holder simulating in-situ conditions. Based on the experimental results, the resulting gas production correlates positively with the permeability of the samples. We examine the deliverability of engineered microbial solutions to promote coal bioconversion in coals and demonstrate that greater than milli-darcy permeability is required under in-situ stress conditions (Part III). This constraint is supplemented by imaging and a fractal-based characterization approach to evaluate changes in the physical properties of coal due to bio-gasification. High resolution SEM imaging is used to observe swelling of the coal matrix with sub-micron wide continuous pores observed to persist even after microbial treatment (IV). We explore the potential of generating, propping-open and sustaining the functionality of hydraulic fractures in coal using different fracturing fluids (Part V). The alteration of the nano-pore structure due to MECBM treatment is examined by using small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) to define the in-situ porosity evolution as a proxy to infer permeability evolution (Part VI). Coupled hydro-mechanical and bio-gasification modeling is applied to determine the effectiveness of nutrient delivery by hydraulic fracturing and its field implementation. Compared with both the unstimulated and hydro-shear-dilated cases of the natural fracture network, hydraulic fracturing demonstrates a significant improvement to enhance nutrient delivery. A preliminary analysis of field-scale methane yield is completed with consideration of the combined influence of permeability evolution, solute transport and microbial growth (Part VII). Developing nutrient solutions for Illinois Basin and San Juan Basin (Task 2): To enhance methane release from coal through bio-gasification, suitable nutrient solutions are needed to stimulate microbial activities toward coal depolymerization and conversion to biogas. Specific for bituminous coal in the Illinois basin, a nutrient recipe that can be used to enhance coal bio- gasification in situ is developed. Based on our previous experience working with Illinois coal and the characteristics of the formation water and the indigenous microbial community, four parameters, Fe powder, methanol, ethanol, and trace minerals are optimized through using a Box-Behnken design. The optimal condition predicted by the models is: Fe-powder at 74 mM, methanol at 97.91 mM, ethanol at 100 mM, and trace minerals at 100%. Under these conditions, the predicted methane yield and content is 1,417.35 ft 3 /ton and 80.7%, respectively. These results are then validated by experimental studies. In addition, each added component is evaluated in terms of its contribution to methane generated. Specifically, the role of coal in the bio-gasification process is studied against two other solid materials. Experimental data from different solid matrices prove that coal is indeed degraded by the studied microbial community.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Diverse PFAS produce unique transcriptomic changes linked to developmental toxicity in zebrafish

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a widespread and persistent class of contaminants posing significant environmental and human health concerns. Comprehensive understanding of the modes of action underlying toxicity among structurally diverse PFAS is mostly lacking. To address this need, we recently reported on our application of developing zebrafish to evaluate a large library of PFAS for developmental toxicity. In the present study, we prioritized 15 bioactive PFAS that induced significant morphological effects and performed RNA-sequencing to characterize early transcriptional responses at a single timepoint (48 h post fertilization) after early developmental exposures (8 h post fertilization). Internal concentrations of 5 of the 15 PFAS were measured from pooled whole fish samples across multiple timepoints between 24–120 h post fertilization, and additional temporal transcriptomics at several timepoints (48–96 h post fertilization) were conducted for Nafion byproduct 2. A broad range of differentially expressed gene counts were identified across the PFAS exposures. Most PFAS that elicited robust transcriptomic changes affected biological processes of the brain and nervous system development. While PFAS disrupted unique processes, we also found that similarities in some functional head groups of PFAS were associated with the disruption in expression of similar gene sets. Body burdens after early developmental exposures to select sulfonic acid PFAS, including Nafion byproduct 2, increased from the 24–96 h post fertilization sampling timepoints and were greater than those of sulfonamide PFAS of similar chain lengths. In parallel, the Nafion byproduct 2-induced transcriptional responses increased between 48 and 96 h post fertilization. PFAS characteristics based on toxicity, transcriptomic effects, and modes of action will contribute to further prioritization of PFAS structures for testing and informed hazard assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent, “Mysterious” Seismoacoustic Signals Reported in Oklahoma State during 2019

Here, we report on the source of seismoacoustic pulses that were observed across the state of Oklahoma (OK) during summer of 2019, and the subject of national media coverage and speculation. Seismic network data collected across four U.S. states and interviews with witnesses to the pulse’s effect on residential structures demonstrate that they were triggered by routine ammunition disposal operations conducted by McAlester Army Ammunition Plant (McAAP). During these operations, conventional explosives destroy obsolete munitions stored in pits through a controlled sequence of electronically timed shots that occur over tens of minutes. Despite noise-abatement efforts that reduce coupling of acoustic energy with air, some lower frequency, subaudible (infrasonic) sound radiates from these shots as discrete pulses. We use nine months of blast log documents, seismic network records, analyst picks, and physical modeling to demonstrate that seismic stations as far as 640 km from McAAP sample these pulses, which record seasonal patterns in stratospheric and tropospheric winds, as well as the dynamic formation of waveguides and shadow zones. Digital short-term average to long-term average detectors that we augment with dynamic thresholds and time-binning operations identify these pulses with a fair probability, when compared with visual observations. Our analyses thereby provide estimates of observation rates for both partial and full sequences of these pulses, as well as single shots. We suggest that disposal operations can exploit existing, composite seismic networks to predict where residents are likely to witness blasting. Crucially, our data also show that dense seismic networks can record multiscale atmospheric processes in the absence of infrasound arrays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LONG-LIVED CHAOTIC ORBITAL EVOLUTION OF EXOPLANETS IN MEAN MOTION RESONANCES WITH MUTUAL INCLINATIONS

We present N-body simulations of resonant planets with inclined orbits that show chaotically evolving eccentricities and inclinations that can persist for at least 10 Gyr. A wide range of behavior is possible, from fast, low amplitude variations to systems in which eccentricities reach 0.9999 and inclinations 179.°9. While the orbital elements evolve chaotically, at least one resonant argument always librates. We show that the HD 73526, HD 45364, and HD 60532 systems may be in chaotically evolving resonances. Chaotic evolution is apparent in the 2:1, 3:1, and 3:2 resonances, and for planetary masses from lunar- to Jupiter-mass. In some cases, orbital disruption occurs after several gigayears, implying the mechanism is not rigorously stable, just long-lived relative to the main sequence lifetimes of solar-type stars. Planet-planet scattering appears to yield planets in inclined resonances that evolve chaotically in about 0.5% of cases. These results suggest that (1) approximate methods for identifying unstable orbital architectures may have limited applicability, (2) the observed close-in exoplanets may be produced during epochs of high eccentricit induced by inclined resonances, (3) those exoplanets' orbital planes may be misaligned with the host star's spin axis, (4) systems with resonances may be systematically younger than those without, (5) the distribution of period ratios of adjacent planets detected via transit may be skewed due to inclined resonances, and (6) potentially habitable planets may have dramatically different climatic evolution than Earth. The Gaia spacecraft is capable of discovering giant planets in these types of orbits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Metagenomics-resolved genomics provides novel insights into chitin turnover, metabolic specialization, and niche partitioning in the octocoral microbiome

Abstract Background The role of bacterial symbionts that populate octocorals (Cnidaria, Octocorallia) is still poorly understood. To shed light on their metabolic capacities, we examined 66 high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) spanning 30 prokaryotic species, retrieved from microbial metagenomes of three octocoral species and seawater. Results Symbionts of healthy octocorals were affiliated with the taxa Endozoicomonadaceae , Candidatus Thioglobaceae , Metamycoplasmataceae , unclassified Pseudomonadales , Rhodobacteraceae , unclassified Alphaproteobacteria and Ca. Rhabdochlamydiaceae . Phylogenomics inference revealed that the Endozoicomonadaceae symbionts uncovered here represent two species of a novel genus unique to temperate octocorals, here denoted Ca. Gorgonimonas eunicellae and Ca. Gorgonimonas leptogorgiae . Their genomes revealed metabolic capacities to thrive under suboxic conditions and high gene copy numbers of serine-threonine protein kinases, type 3-secretion system, type-4 pili, and ankyrin-repeat proteins, suggesting excellent capabilities to colonize, aggregate, and persist inside their host. Contrarily, MAGs obtained from seawater frequently lacked symbiosis-related genes. All Endozoicomonadaceae symbionts harbored endo-chitinase and chitin-binging protein-encoding genes, indicating that they can hydrolyze the most abundant polysaccharide in the oceans. Other symbionts, including Metamycoplasmataceae and Ca. Thioglobaceae , may assimilate the smaller chitin oligosaccharides resulting from chitin breakdown and engage in chitin deacetylation, respectively, suggesting possibilities for substrate cross-feeding and a role for the coral microbiome in overall chitin turnover. We also observed sharp differences in secondary metabolite production potential between symbiotic lineages. Specific Proteobacteria taxa may specialize in chemical defense and guard other symbionts, including Endozoicomonadaceae , which lack such capacity. Conclusion This is the first study to recover MAGs from dominant symbionts of octocorals, including those of so-far unculturable Endozoicomonadaceae , Ca. Thioglobaceae and Metamycoplasmataceae symbionts. We identify a thus-far unanticipated, global role for Endozoicomonadaceae symbionts of corals in the processing of chitin, the most abundant natural polysaccharide in the oceans and major component of the natural zoo- and phytoplankton feed of octocorals. We conclude that niche partitioning, metabolic specialization, and adaptation to low oxygen conditions among prokaryotic symbionts likely contribute to the plasticity and adaptability of the octocoral holobiont in changing marine environments. These findings bear implications not only for our understanding of symbiotic relationships in the marine realm but also for the functioning of benthic ecosystems at large.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adverse Health Effects of Thirdhand Smoke: From Cell to Animal Models

The newly identified smoke hazard, thirdhand smoke (THS), has gained public attention in recent years but its health impact and biological effects are largely unknown. THS may be defined by “the four Rs”: tobacco chemicals that remain, react, re-emit, and/or are resuspended long after active smoking has ceased. This review summarizes recent research progress in the effects of THS on genotoxicity, metabolism and early life development using cellular and animal models. We first reported that THS generated in laboratory systems caused significant DNA damage in human cell lines. Our finding that THS significantly induces oxidative base lesions has been confirmed in skin wounds of mice models exposed to THS. THS also induced metabolomic changes in human reproductive cell lines. Furthermore, we demonstrated that early exposure to THS not only negatively impacts body weight in both male and female mice, but also induces persistent changes to immunological parameters in peripheral blood in these mice. These results indicate that THS is genotoxic at realistic experimental doses and that there may be a window of susceptibility for some forms of cellular damage induced by THS.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology to determine the coupling of continental clouds with surface and boundary layer height under cloudy conditions from lidar and meteorological data

Abstract. The states of coupling between clouds and surface or boundary layer have been investigated much more extensively for marine stratocumulus clouds than for continental low clouds, partly due to more complex thermodynamic structures over land. A manifestation is a lack of robust remote sensing methods to identify coupled and decoupled clouds over land. Following the idea for determining cloud coupling over the ocean, we have generalized the concept of coupling and decoupling to low clouds over land, based on potential temperature profiles. Furthermore, by using ample measurements from lidar and a suite of surface meteorological instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site from 1998 to 2019, we have developed a method to simultaneously retrieve the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) and coupled states under cloudy conditions during the daytime. The new lidar-based method relies on the PBLH, the lifted condensation level, and the cloud base to diagnose the cloud coupling. The coupled states derived from this method are highly consistent with those derived from radiosondes. Retrieving the PBLH under cloudy conditions, which has been a persistent problem in lidar remote sensing, is resolved in this study. Our method can lead to high-quality retrievals of the PBLH under cloudy conditions and the determination of cloud coupling states. With the new method, we find that coupled clouds are sensitive to changes in the PBL with a strong diurnal cycle, whereas decoupled clouds and the PBL are weakly related. Since coupled and decoupled clouds have distinct features, our new method offers an advanced tool to separately investigate them in climate systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Peptoid-Based Nanosheets Exhibiting Broad Antiviral Activity Against Enveloped RNA Viruses

Enveloped RNA viruses, such as Influenza A (H1N1) and Sindbis virus, pose persistent global health threats due to their high mutation rates, efficient transmission, and frequent drug resistance. By mimicking host cell membrane receptors, multivalent virus inhibitors can block viral attachment, making them promising broad-spectrum antiviral agents. However, most of existing antivirals are often limited by strain specificity, short-lived efficacy, and toxicity. Here, we introduce a broad-spectrum antiviral platform based on highly tunable and biocompatible two-dimensional nanomembranes (2DNMs) self-assembled from amphiphilic peptoids, operating via a non-genomic, mutation-insensitive mechanism. By varying peptoid sequence, we design and synthesize over twenty different 2DNMs with various surface charge and high density of viral-attachment ligands (VALs). The self-assembled architecture of these stable 2DNMs provides cooperative noncovalent multivalent binding to virus particles that result in effective inhibition of viral infection. Screening of variants identified three leads that potently suppressed Influenza A (H1N1) and Sindbis virus infection across median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50), plaque, RT–qPCR, and immunofluorescence assays, while maintaining >90% cell viability. These nanosheets significantly reduced infectious titers, viral RNA replication, and intracellular viral protein expression, indicating inhibition at early stages of viral entry and propagation. The sequence programmability, chemical robustness, and mutation-insensitive antiviral activity distinguish 2DNMs from traditional antivirals and positions them as a versatile materials platform for antiviral coatings, protective barriers, and prophylactic biomedical applications.

Influenza A virus↗

Comparison of phage-derived recombinases for genetic manipulation of Pseudomonas species

ABSTRACT Several strains in the Pseudomonas genus are categorized as plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR). Although several of these strains are strong candidates for applications as biofertilizers or biopesticides, genome editing approaches are generally limited and require further development. Editing genomes in PGPR could enable more robust agricultural applications, persistence, and biosafety measures. In this study, we investigate the use of five phage-encoded recombinases to develop a recombineering workflow in three PGPR strains: Pseudomonas protegens Pf-5, Pseudomonas protegens CHA0, and Pseudomonas putida KT2440. Using point mutations in the rpoB gene, we reach maximum recombineering efficiencies of 1.5 × 10 −4 , 3 × 10 −4 , and 5 × 10 −5 , respectively, in these strains using λ-Red Beta recombinase from Escherichia coli . We further examine recombineering efficiencies across these strains as a function of selected mutation, editing template concentration, and phosphorothiolate bond protection. This work validates the use of these tools across several environmentally and biotechnologically relevant strains to expand the possibilities of genetic manipulation in the Pseudomonas genus. IMPORTANCE The Pseudomonas genus contains many members currently being investigated for applications in biodegradation, biopesticides, biocontrol, and synthetic biology. Though several strains have been identified with beneficial properties, chromosomal manipulations to further improve these strains for commercial applications have been limited due to the lack of efficient genetic tools that have been tested across this genus. Here, we test the recombineering efficiencies of five phage-derived recombinases across three biotechnologically relevant Pseudomonas strains: P. putida KT2440, P. protegens Pf-5, and P. protegens CHA0. These results demonstrate a method to generate targeted mutations quickly and efficiently across these strains, ideally introducing a method that can be implemented across the Pseudomonas genus and a strategy that may be applied to develop analogous systems in other nonmodel bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cooperative measures to support the Indo-Pak Agreement Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.

In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging: BNL Phase II Activities (Final Report)

Over the last ten years, lower costs and government incentives for rooftop and utility scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have led to a rapid growth in the amount of power generated from this renewable energy source. For example, the cumulative PV generating capacity of 1,160 MW in New York State at the end of 2018 represents a growth of more than 4,000% over the past seven years and almost 400% over the past five years. But increased dependence on this inherently variable energy source introduces the need to anticipate, i.e., forecast, changes in energy production and manage them appropriately. Utilities and grid operators can then use this forecast information to balance changes and maintain stability of the electric grid by adding additional sources or diverting excess supplies for sale or storage, as needed. Current techniques based on persistence modeling are not accurate enough to provide reliable forecasts. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technology Office (DOE SETO) and the New York Power Authority (NYPA), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) formed a collaborative team to provide reliable forecasting over a range of time intervals. In addition, the forecasting area was scaled up to about 50 km2, a factor of 20 times larger than previously achieved, so that available solar irradiance could be forecast throughout an entire region including both large generating facilities and distributed rooftop solar arrays. In its role, BNL developed a technology for predicting changes in available solar energy from zero to 30 minutes ahead. This “nowcasting” approach uses inexpensive, off-the-shelf, high definition (HD) imagers with custom software to identify and track the movement of approaching clouds and predict their impact on available solar irradiance. The BNL Nowcasting model improves forecasting accuracy by 20 to 50% over current techniques. Forecasting reliability for low clouds (worst case scenario since they move over solar panels more rapidly than high clouds) was calculated to be 95% accurate for forecast periods of five minute ahead. Reliability decreases with longer forecast time intervals and was calculated to be about 80% for 10 minute forecasts, and about 70% for 20 minutes ahead. Clouds were still reliably tracked by the imager network at 60% accuracy for forecast lead times up to about 30 minutes ahead, and this was determined to be the practical nowcasting limit for low clouds in a network of this scale. This work represents the second phase of a multi-phase effort to develop and deploy solar forecasting at a regional scale so that contributions from distributed rooftop solar resources can be forecast along with solar generating facilities, giving utilities and stakeholders an accurate assessment of future energy production. Additional work is planned to operate the forecasting network in an area upstate New York to assess system reliability under diverse meteorological conditions and to monitor system performance over a full range of seasonal variability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Near-cancellation of up- and down-gradient momentum transport in forced magnetized shear-flow turbulence

Visco-resistive magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, driven by a two-dimensional unstable shear layer that is maintained by an imposed body force, is examined by decomposing it into dissipationless linear eigenmodes of the initial profiles. The down-gradient momentum flux, as expected, originates from the large-scale instability. However, continual up-gradient momentum transport by large-scale linearly stable but nonlinearly excited eigenmodes is identified and found to nearly cancel the down-gradient transport by unstable modes. The stable modes effectuate this by depleting the large-scale turbulent fluctuations via energy transfer to the mean flow. This establishes a physical mechanism underlying the long-known observation that coherent vortices formed from nonlinear saturation of the instability reduce turbulent transport and fluctuations, as such vortices are composed of both the stable and unstable modes, which are nearly equal in their amplitudes. The impact of magnetic fields on the nonlinearly excited stable modes is then quantified. Furthermore, even when imposing a strong magnetic field that almost completely suppresses the instability, the up-gradient transport by the stable modes is at least two-thirds of the down-gradient transport by the unstable modes, whereas for weaker fields, this fraction reaches up to 98%. These effects are persistent with variations in magnetic Prandtl number and forcing strength. Finally, continuum modes are shown to be energetically less important, but essential for capturing the magnetic fluctuations and Maxwell stress. A simple analytical scaling law is derived for their saturated turbulent amplitudes. It predicts the falloff rate as the inverse of the Fourier wavenumber, a property which is confirmed in numerical simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗