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Development of mechanistic, microstructure-informed BISON models for fission product-induced failure mechanisms in advanced nuclear fuels

The US continues to prioritize commercial deployment of advanced reactors—particularly those utilizing U-Zr metallic and TRISO particle fuels. Fission product-induced failure mechanisms for these systems include fuel–cladding chemical interaction in metallic fuel rods, which threatens cladding integrity, and Pd penetration in TRISO particles, which degrades SiC layer properties. Empirical models can be applied within the bounds of existing irradiation databases, but their utility is limited when considering new designs or investigating fundamental material behaviors. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program is therefore developing mechanistic models for these behaviors, which are expected to aid in fuel design, assist in development of failure mitigation strategies, and provide support for qualification and licensing. These efforts leverage multiscale capabilities to capture the microstructural features and processes that govern these behaviors. This talk summarizes past and ongoing efforts to develop and validate these models for the BISON fuel performance code.

FCCI↗

Initial overview, description, and assessment of the DELFIC atmospheric transport model

We present an overview and description of the atmospheric transport model (ATM) component of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretative Code (DELFIC) and its revision history. In particular, we discuss the hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian model of the DELFIC diffusive transport module (DTM), its assumptions and constraints, and assess its capability for modeling the transport, dispersion, and deposition of nuclear fallout debris. This hybrid model is an efficient transport model for the wide range of particle sizes found in nuclear fallout debris. Furthermore, we validate the 1979 version of DELFIC using the 1979 test case input and output presented in its documentation. Except for some rounding differences and exposure rate differences from the OPM, the DTM output is in very good agreement with the 1979 results. Overall, the DELFIC DTM provides a reasonable and rapid approximation to the transport and deposition of local nuclear fallout debris.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nek5000 developments in support of industry and the NRC

This year, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation program (NEAMS) thermal-hydraulics verification and validation (V&V) work has focused in three areas of Nek5000 V&V-driven development. First, in a close collaborative effort with the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff, we have continued V&V efforts for the HYMERES-2 project using the OECD/NEA sponsored testing in the PSI PANDA facility. This year’s focus of ANL-NRC collaboration involves Nek5000 setups and validation for a range of problems relevant to and including the HYMERES-2 benchmark from PSI. The primary outcome of this year efforts is a more efficient geometry and inlet modeling simplification after a careful sensitivity study of the inlet profiles and pipe geometries. The resulting modeling choice of a short recycling/fully-developed turbulent inlet is within the experimental uncertainty estimate. This finding simplifies the next step of the cross-V&V HYMERES-2 project. In addition, the ANL team continue to provide assistance to the NRC staff in the form of Nek5000 application support in general and on the use of the HPC platforms of ALCF and INL in particular. This supports the NRC’s assessment of Nek5000 for use with the NRC Blue CRAB code suite. Second, we have implemented and tested more robust model of URANS, namely the k – τ model, a variant of the k-ω model, along with other improvements to RANS Nek5000 modeling in general. Because of its demonstrated robustness and stability, the k – τ model is the only RANS model that has been implemented in the new GPU version of the Nek5000 code, nekRS. Lastly, we report the initial implementation of Jacobian-free Newton Krylov approach to the direct Newton method for steady fluid solvers aimed at acceleration of RANS modeling and at IC improvement for LES campaigns. Also leveraging the Exascale Computing Project (ECP) ANL/CEED & SMR team’s software development effort to support NEAMS problems at large scale of the advanced computing architectures, NekRS, a GPU variant of Nek5000, built on top of kernels from libParanumal using OCCA for portability, has been successfully run on the full system of Summit (4608 nodes, 27648 GPUs).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NEAMS Reactor Physics Project Management and Coordination Activities

The following report summarizes the coordination activities and collaboration efforts by research staff at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory for the development of Shift and Griffin computer codes under the US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessment of CTF for Steady-state and Transient Post-CHF Conditions in Support of Time-at-Temperature Modeling Applications

The US nuclear industry is exploring options to improve operational economics and uprate the current fleet of light-water reactors by investigating transitioning to cladding performance–based safety criteria as opposed to the current limit, which requires complete avoidance of critical heat flux (CHF)/dryout. Past experience has shown that not all events leading to a dryout are severe enough to cause fuel performance degradation. Allowing temporary dryout of the fuel—that is, using a time-at-temperature (TaT) strategy—could allow for economic improvements via large power uprates and enhanced operational flexibility for current plants without compromising fuel integrity. To support this effort, the US Department of Energy is executing a comprehensive program that includes generating cladding material data under TaT conditions, developing new mechanistic models, and demonstrating modeling and simulation capabilities for transients of interest. This paper presents work performed to assess the CTF thermal-hydraulics subchannel code. CTF is a package used in the VERA core simulator, which will ultimately be used for TaT analysis. CTF will provide the thermal-hydraulic boundary conditions that will be needed for fuel performance analysis in the BISON code. Quantifying both the accuracy and uncertainty of post-CHF models will therefore be necessary. This paper outlines the strategy for the assessment of TaT and presents the results of using the steady-state and transient dryout experiments of the Boiling Fine-mesh Bundle Tests for CTF validation. The results show that the current model tends to overpredict steady-state critical power. This behavior translates to the transient tests, in which CTF is unable to capture transient dryout behavior. Some discussion of sensitivity analysis work being performed is provided to indicate which models must be further analyzed to properly model transient dryout and its uncertainty.

Salko Jr, Robert [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000253566679)↗

Two-Nucleon Short-Range Correlations in Light Nuclei

Understanding the nucleon-nucleon interaction is a fundamental task in nuclear physics, as NN interaction models are a crucial input to modern nuclear structure calculations. While great progress has been made toward understanding this interaction, the available state-of-the-art models predict significantly different behaviors at short distances and high momenta (scale-and-scheme dependence), where two-nucleon Short-Range Correlations (SRCs) dominate the nuclear wave function. Thus, SRCs are a unique tool to constrain the NN interaction and vice versa. SRCs are naturallyoccurring high-local-density NN pairs that, as a result of their short-distance (approx. 0.1 fm) repulsive interaction, fly apart with high momenta, hence populating momentum states above the Fermi level. The study of SRCs also has significant implications for other fields, such as the astrophysics of neutron stars and the behavior of cold atomic gasses. This thesis describes experimental and phenomenological studies of the short-distance / high-momentum structure of the NN interaction through the study of SRCs and vice versa. Experimentally, I report the first measurement of the 3He and 3H(e,e'p) reactions in Hall A of the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility in kinematics in which the measured cross sections should be sensitive to the underlying nucleon momentum distributions in the range 40 to 500 MeV/c. The resulting cross-section ratios and absolute cross sections were compared to momentum-distribution ratios and precise cross-section calculations respectively. Phenomenologically, I report the generalization of the Contact Formalism (GCF) to nuclear systems, which exploits scale separation and universality to describe nucleons at short distances and high momenta.

Cruz Torres, Reynier↗

Multiphysics Simulations of MSRE with NEAMS Thermal Hydraulics Tools

This report documents the benchmarks being developed and simulations performed using tools and codes developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, utilizing MSRE experimental data. In FY23, three main work scopes were investigated under the NEAMS MSR work package at ANL. The first scope investigated the Griffin-SAM coupling model for simulating the pump startup transient experiment of MSRE. The analyses start with a simple model (single-channel, single-lattice), gradually adding more details (multi-channel, full-core) into the model. The results show that the reactivity loss curve is very sensitive to the axial boundary conditions and the radial core discretization. The simple model can predict a similar reactivity trend as that of the more sophisticated model, which is likely due to error cancellation. Accurately modeling the axial boundary condition may further improve the reactivity trend but would require significant efforts to generate the mesh of the MSRE inlet and upper plenum. The core channel radial discretization for the Griffin-SAM coupled model also depends on the flow distribution. Given the complex geometry in the inlet plenum, the flow distribution needed to be calculated from CFD analysis, which was performed using the NekRS code. This analysis employed a MSRE CAD model developed by Copenhagen Atomics. The CAD model was disassembled to keep the inlet plenum region only, which was subsequently cleaned and modified so that the mesh generated is under the memory limit. The results are merged to a few radial regions to show that the flow rate is highest in the central region. This would be useful for future improvement of the Griffin-SAM coupling model of the MSRE core. The last task investigated is tritium transport modeling using the standalone SAM code. This task aimed to initiate the effort to demonstrate and validate the tritium transport model implemented in SAM. The preliminary investigation employed an MSRE model consisting of the primary loop. Three tritium transport pathways were examined including the retention in the graphite, the permeation through the HX tube wall, and the removal from the off-gas system. The results compare well with the MSRE data, but improvements are still needed on the initial conditions (i.e., the present state may not have reached equilibrium), the boundary conditions, the off-gas system modeling, and a better numerical strategy to reach the equilibrium state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MOOSE Framework Meshing Enhancements to Support Reactor Analysis

MOOSE-based physics codes require an input finite element mesh on which the physics solution is calculated, reported, and transferred to other physics codes. The use of difficult-touse, external licensed software is often required to generate high quality meshes for reactor geometries. High-fidelity geometry modeling also requires elaborate tracking of groups of elements for material property assignment and output reporting which can be considerably complex for the user to identify and maintain. Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, several meshingrelated enhancements have been developed for the MOOSE framework to address user challenges in creating finite element meshes for advanced reactor geometries. MOOSE mesh generators have been developed to mesh hexagonal geometries (pins, ducted assemblies, and cores) commonly found in liquid-metal cooled fast reactor concepts. The mesh generator used for hexagonal pin cells is generic for regular polygons and therefore may also be used for Cartesian pin cells. Hexagonal pin cells can be stitched into ducted assemblies, and assemblies can be stitched together into a core. The user may specify region ids, region names, and other preferences on the mesh. This control is useful for later material mapping in the MOOSE-based physics codes input. A capability was also developed for meshing rotating control drums including determination of material volume fractions in each mesh element as a function of time. Control drum meshes may be stitched to other hexagonal assemblies to create a core configuration. Additional mesh generators were developed that wrap around the hexagonal meshing capabilities and utilize “extra element integer” ID values on each element. In regular Cartesian or hexagonal assemblies or cores, the bookkeeping of element groups for both material assignment and output reporting can now be automated through assignment of pin, assembly, core, axial and depletion id values stored as extra element integers. The extra element tags on the mesh greatly speed the reactor analyst’s efforts to map materials to meshes, track depletion zones, and parse output such as axial pin power distributions. At the highest level, pin, assembly, and core mesh generators (with this reactor terminology) have also been developed to easily generate regular Cartesian and hexagonal cores, including axial extrusion. These reactor geometry builders call upon the previously mentioned capabilities to produce analysis-ready 3D meshes including material assignments. Open source mesh triangulation capabilities were also investigated for integration into the MOOSE framework to address the need for meshing the core periphery region which extends from the irregular outer assembly border to a cylindrical boundary. Options are limited due to licensing constraints, and the recommendation is pursue building a native MOOSE Delaunay triangulator routine with full functionality. Finally, a series of verification problems were performed with NEAMS physics tools. All developed capabilities will be available in the new open-source “Reactor” module of the MOOSE framework, which is accessible to any MOOSE-based NEAMS physics tool.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

In situ irradiation of spent nuclear fuels

To improve the economics of commercial nuclear reactors, nuclear vendors and utilities are seeking approval for increased burnup usage of the existing nuclear fleet. This is especially critical for meeting the clean energy initiative by the United States Government, Department of Energy (DOE). However, one of the key challenges the nuclear industry faces in this regard is that the regions exposed to high burnup and low temperatures exhibit a fine-grained microstructure with large bubbles known as high-burnup structure (HBS) [1]. The formation of HBS has been correlated to the diminished performance of the reactor, as well as fuel fragmentation and pulverization during transient and accidental conditions [2]. Therefore, it is paramount to understand the mechanisms for HBS formation along with its impact on the properties and performance of nuclear fuels. While existing programs, such as Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) and Advanced Fuel Campaign (AFC) are focusing on evaluating the performance impact of HBS, the physical mechanisms contributing to HBS formation are still not fully understood. In addition, having predictive capabilities and sound understanding of the microstructural evolution of nuclear fuel is essential for accelerated development, qualification, and deployment of new nuclear materials and novel reactor designs for advanced nuclear reactors. There is a lack of consensus among researchers regarding the mechanisms leading to such restructuring observed in HBS. Grain subdivision due to polygonization versus recrystallization, continuous versus discrete recrystallization occurring in tandem or conjunction, etc., have been proposed and debated. In general, it is hypothesized that defect accumulation and dislocation interaction within the grains cause the realignment of dislocations into grain boundaries, leading to the new subgrain formation, which over time transforms into new grains. However, due to the lack of transient data, the importance of fission rate, irradiation, thermal, and stress history of the fuel on the restructuring could not be assessed. In situ microstructural evolution under various irradiation conditions is desired to bridge this gap. Alternatively, phase-field-based models have been developed to capture HBS formation via discrete recrystallization utilizing the classical nucleation approach [3–5]. However, in these models, the grain nucleation criteria are often defined based on empirical relations for burnup and fission gas density leading to dislocation density change. A mechanistic approach to capture the dislocation interaction with the microstructural features leading to grain subdivision is lacking.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment and Improvement of Fission Product Transport Predictions of Particle Fuel in BISON

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. This study was motivated by the need to incorporate more physics-based models in BISON in order to foster tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) applications. This document details the integration of new modeling capabilities in BISON, including (1) development of pyrolytic carbon (PyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) layer anisotropic thermal and mass transport capabilities, (2) verification of the mass diffusion solution in TRISO modeling, (3) calibration of fission product diffusivity using Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) experiments, (4) improved fission product release modeling by developing compact diffusion modeling capabilities, and (5) documentation of accelerated failure analysis on the BISON website. Improvements made to the diffusion models and parameters were documented and validated against AGR-1 and -2 experiment data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Demonstrate Capability of NEAMS Tools to Generate Reactor Kinetics Parameters for Pebble-Bed HTGRs Transient Modeling

The system analysis of anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accident for pebblebed reactor systems requires knowledge of the neutron kinetic parameters. These parameters take into account various types of feedback from the pebble-bed core and are typically integrated into system analysis tools such as the System Analysis Module (SAM) in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) tool package. These parameters are typically generated by a higher fidelity full-core coupled neutronics/thermal fluids analysis, such as using Griffin and Pronghorn, in 2D or 3D. The delayed neutron fractions (beta) and the neutron lifetimes (lambda) are typically generated by applying the adjoint solution of the neutron flux. Temperature reactivity coefficients are the most important feedback for all anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accident, then depending on the transient other effects might be important as rector control system worth, s-curves, and Xenon generation. This work package will establish a methodology and process for calculating the reactor kinetics parameters for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and provide them in a suitable form for system level analyses of typical anticipated operating occurrences and design basis accident.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cyber Security Analysis for Nuclear Reactor Control Systems (Final Technical Report)

This project investigated the cyber-security impacts of moving from an all analog, point-to-point, instrumentation and control (I&C) system to a digital I&C system based on Modbus and a shared communication medium. A formalism called a hybrid attack graph was expanded to support the nuclear research reactor system. The hybrid attack graph allows one to check a system for vulnerabilities, in this case cyber-security vulnerabilities, and to document the attack vectors (scenarios) causing those vulnerabilities. In parallel, a simulation of the system was developed to model both the physical reactor parameters and operations, as well as the network interconnects and communications. This simulation platform was modeled on the nuclear research reactor located at Washington State University. The simulation platform provided a sandbox to evaluate and quantify the impact of identified and proposed vulnerabilities in the system and to determine the effectiveness of countermeasures at stopping these attacks. The simulation and hybrid attack graph tools were integrated to provide a streamlined process of generating attack scenarios, playing those scenarios out in the simulation, and then analyzing the results to correlate system state to states in the hybrid attack graph. This process was used to (1) quantify the impact of attack scenarios and (2) to determine if the system moved through the hybrid attack graph as anticipated. The hybrid attack graph tool was extended and customized to produce a tool to automatically identify critical assets (CAs) and critical digital assets (CDAs) as defined by NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. This tool was verified using the nuclear research reactor at Washington State University. Finally, a series of educational modules covering the findings of the different aspects of this research have been created.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

VERA-Grizzly Ex-Core Calculations: Watts Bar Unit 1 Cycles 1-2

The critical structures that comprise light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants are subjected to operating environments that can challenge their integrity. Structures in close proximity to the reactor core, such as the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) and the biological shield wall, are subjected to high levels of radiation emanating from the core, as well as elevated temperatures. As the US fleet of operating LWRs ages, the effects of these operating environments on the integrity of these structures must be considered to ensure their continued safe operation. Extending the lifetime of commercial reactors and maintaining the aging reactor fleet require accurate prediction of the exposure of ex-core components to neutron and photon radiation. In particular, concrete degradation studies must be performed to evaluate the safety and long-term operation of reactors with lifetime extensions. The concrete reactor bioshield is important for providing radiological protection during operation and must last for the entire lifetime of the reactor. Recent interest in lifetime extensions furthers the need to accurately simulate concrete material degradation in the reactor bioshield. As a result of this need, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded this study to couple its tools, Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) and Grizzly. VERA allows users to set up models to calculate time-dependent and fully coupled solutions (with thermal feedback) for ex-core quantities of interest such as vessel and coupon fluence and detector responses for multiple statepoints and cycles. Grizzly is a finite-element application based on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework that is used to enable aging materials calculations. This report highlights the work performed to calculate the fluence in the vessel and concrete for Watts Bar Nuclear Plant Unit 1 (WBN1) Cycles 1 and 2. The fluences obtained from VERA were successfully transferred to Grizzly using a Python script. Four simulations were run with Grizzly: (1) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the instantaneous modulus, (2) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the delayed modulus, (3) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the delayed modulus with the addition of the effects of micro-damage caused by irradiation, and (4) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the instantaneous modulus, and with the addition of micro-damage and creep. Details regarding the methods used to obtain the fluence and the statistical errors associated with the VERA Monte Carlo Shift calculations are discussed in greater detail in this report. The results obtained from the four Grizzly models are also presented in this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Using a Large Language Model for Accurate Technical Language Generation in the Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Machine learning (ML) methods for predictive maintenance (PdM) are emerging as effective proactive strategies for diagnosing equipment degradation and enabling effective decision-making. However, explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Large language models (LLMs) offer a unique approach to tackle these challenges by explaining PdM, work orders, diagnosis results, and ML algorithms to users, who may not be familiar with ML and PdM in general. Moreover, by dynamically retrieving relevant information from technical documents and evaluating factuality of LLM generation, the accuracy and relevance of LLM generations can be improved. This work demonstrates using LLMs to explain the causes and consequences of circulating water system failures based on multiyear NPP work orders. This work tests the capability of multimodal LLM approaches in explaining the differences in the circulating water system from both the Salem and Hope Creek NPPs using both text and image resources. This work also demonstrates the use of multimodal LLMs in describing the diagnosis tab of a predictive maintenance software named VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER) to users.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Demonstrating the Value of 3D Models to Support Large-Scale Digital Modifications at Nuclear Power Plants

Many Nuclear Power Plants are currently in the process of extending their operating licenses for continued generation. The use of three-dimensional (3D) modeling in the early stages of large scale NPP modernization efforts is one lower cost method that can verify proposed design changes against established guidelines and allows for visual presentation of the 3D model to various stakeholders in the project. Guidance from Nuclear Regulatory Commission NUREG 0711 and 0700, and other sources on performing HF/E for control rooms and design modifications can be visually represented in 3D models. Distance and measurements, workstation design, anthropometric considerations, and early feedback of modifications are used in 3D models to identify potential human issues early in the design process. 3D modeling is a useful tool for early design and help to reduce costs and present visuals to stakeholders early in the design.

3D Models↗

Proof-of-Concept for Sensor Modeling in MOOSE for the Design of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Control

Autonomous operation is essential for the deployment of microreactors and fission batteries, both in terrestrial and space applications. For this reason, recent studies have investigated autonomous control by using adaptive model predictive control and multi-objective optimization for heat pipe–cooled microreactors under normal and heat pipe failure conditions. However, prototypes of microreactors and fission batteries do not exist yet, and even the design space has not been narrowed down conclusively, making the instrumentation and control system design difficult. For this reason, there is a need for flexible computational capabilities to create a numerical stand-in of potential microreactor and fission battery designs. The latter can be used to design and test control strategies to support autonomous operations. In this poster, we describe the initial implementation of a pluggable sensor system for the easy implementation of realistic sensor models in the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability will enable MOOSE users to create a numerical stand-in of microreactors and fission batteries, ultimately allowing them to easily test new control algorithms, and instrumentation strategies for advanced systems in the design phase.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mechanistic Source Term Considerations for Advanced Non-LWRs

This report is a functional review of the radionuclide containment strategies of fluoride-salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR), molten salt reactor (IVISR) and high temperature gas reactor (HTGR) systems. This analysis serves as a starting point for further, more in-depth analyses geared towards identifying phenomenological gaps that still exist, preventing the creation of a mechanistic source term for these reactor types. As background information to this review, an overview of how a mechanistic source term is created and used for consequence assessment necessary for licensing is provided. How mechanistic source term is used within the LMP is also provided. Third, the characteristics of non-LWR mechanistic source terms are examined This report does not assess the viability of any software system for use with advanced reactor designs, but instead covers system function requirements. Future work within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulations (NEAMS) program will address such gaps.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗