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NASA NTRS1996

Effects of Shocks on Emission from Central Engines of Active Galactic Nuclei. I

In this paper we show that perturbations of the accretion flow within the central engines of some active galactic nuclei (AGNS) are likely to form shock waves in the accreting plasma. Such shocks, which may be either collisional or collisionless, can contribute to the observed high-energy temporal and spectral variability. Our rationale is the following: Observations show that the continuum emission probably originates in an optically thin, hot plasma in the AGN central engine. The flux and spectrum from this hot plasma varies significantly over light crossing timescales. Several authors have suggested that macroscopic perturbations contained within this plasma are the sources of this variability. In order to produce the observed emission the perturbations must be radiatively coupled with the optically thin hot matter and must also move with high velocities. We suggest that shocks, which can be very effective in randomizing the bulk motion of the perturbations, are responsible for this coupling. Shocks should form in the central engine, because the temperatures and magnetic fields are probably reduced below their virial values by radiative dissipation. Perturbations moving at Keplerian speeds, or strong non-linear excitations, result in supersonic and super-Alfvenic velocities leading to shock waves within the hot plasma. We show that even a perturbation smaller than the emitting region can form a shock that significantly modifies the continuum emission in an AGN, and that the spectral and temporal variability from such a shock generally resembles those of radio-quiet AGNS. As an example, the shock inducing perturbation in our model is a small main-sequence star, the capturing and eventual accretion of which are known to be a plausible process. We argue that shocks in the central engine may also provide a natural triggering mechanism for the "cold" component of Guilbert & Rees two-phase medium and an efficient mecha- nism for angular momentum transfer. Current and future missions, such as ASCA, XTE, XMM, AXAF, and ASTRO-E may determine the importance of shock-related emission from the central engines of AGNS.

Sivron, R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Estimate of the Aerosol Anthropogenic Component and Focusing from Satellite Data

Satellite measurements of aerosol do not contain information on the chemical composition needed to resolve anthropogenic vs. natural aerosol components. Besides, the same chemical species can have natural and anthropogenic origins. However the ability of the new satellite instruments (MODIS, MISR, POLDER) to distinguish fine from coarse aerosols over the oceans, can be used as a signature of the presence of anthropogenic component and used to measure the fraction of the aerosol originating from anthropogenic activity with an uncertainty of 10 percent for aerosol optical thickness larger than 0.1. We develop the methods and investigated it using model calculations (GOCART) and satellite data (MODIS). Preliminary application to 2 years of global MODIS data shows that 0.200.08 of the aerosol optical thickness and radiative effect has anthropogenic origin. The resultant aerosol forcing over cloud free oceans is 1.30.6 W/sq m, larger than model simulations. Further research until the presentation will probably modify these values.

Kaufman, Yoram↗

NASA NTRS1981

Structure of the lunar crust at highland site Apollo Station 16

The seismic crustal structure of the moon is known in the region of Oceanus Procellarum from the analysis of artificial impact data. To extend this knowledge we have used data from natural lunar seismic events to search for secondary seismic wave arrivals in the form of peg-leg multiples caused by reflections at crustal interfaces and converted arrivals caused by refractions at crustal interfaces. A polarization filter has been applied to the data to enhance the rectilinear particle motion expected for the onset of these body wave arrivals in the scattered coda of lunar seismograms. The results of this work tentatively indicate that the highland site at station 16 has a 75 km thick crust with an intermediate 20 km interface, compared to the 60 km crust and 20 km interface in Oceanus Procellarum, a mare region. Since the 20 km upper crust appears to exist at both highland and mare sites, it probably does not represent a mare basalt layer but rather a more general feature of the crust. Crustal thickness may partially control elevation by isostasy.

Goins, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Uncertain Nature of Cometary Motions

The number of active short- and long-periodic comets crossing the Earth's orbit each year is less than 10 percent of the corresponding number of asteroids crossing the Earth's orbit. However, the higher relative velocities of comets with respect to the Earth and the uncertainties associated with accurately computing their future trajectories can cause considerable problems when assessing the risks of Earth-crossing objects. Unlike asteroids, the motions of active comets are often affected by so-called nongravitational (outgassing) forces that are imperfectly modeled. In addition, the astrometric optical observations that are used to refine a comet's orbit are often imprecise because a comet's center of mass can be hidden by atmospheric gas and dust. For long-period comets, there is the additional problem of having to base orbital solutions on relatively short observational data intervals. Long-term numerical integrations extending two centuries into the future have been carried out to investigate upcoming Earth-close approaches by known periodic comets. Error analyses and impact probabilities have been computed for those comets that will pass closest to the Earth. Although there are no known comets that will make dangerously close Earth approaches in the next two centuries, there are a few objects that warrant future monitoring.

Yeomans, Donald K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The pituitary growth hormone cell in space

Growth hormone (GH), produced and secreted from specialized cells in the pituitary gland, controls the metabolism of protein, fat, and carbohydrate. It is also probably involved in the regulation of proper function of bone, muscle and immune systems. The behavior of the GH cell system was studied by flying either isolated pituitary cells or live rats. In the latter case, pituitary GH cells are prepared on return to earth and then either transplanted into hypophysectomized rats or placed into cell culture so that function of GH cells in-vivo vs. in-vitro can be compared. The results from three flights to date (STS-8, 1983; SL-3, 1985; Cosmos 1887, 1987) established that the ability of GH cells to release hormone, on return to earth, is compromised. The mechanism(s) responsible for this attenuation response is unknown. However, the data are sufficiently positive to indicate that the nature of the secretory defect resides directly within the GH cells.

Hymer, Wesley C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Workshop on New Views of the Moon: Integrated Remotely Sensed, Geophysical, and Sample Datasets

It has been more than 25 years since Apollo 17 returned the last of the Apollo lunar samples. Since then, a vast amount of data has been obtained from the study of rocks and soils from the Apollo and Luna sample collections and, more recently, on a set of about a dozen lunar meteorites collected on Earth. Based on direct studies of the samples, many constraints have been established for the age, early differentiation, crust and mantle structure, and subsequent impact modification of the Moon. In addition, geophysical experiments at the surface, as well as remote sensing from orbit and Earth-based telescopic studies, have provided additional datasets about the Moon that constrain the nature of its surface and internal structure. Some might be tempted to say that we know all there is to know about the Moon and that it is time to move on from this simple satellite to more complex objects. However, the ongoing Lunar Prospector mission and the highly successful Clementine mission have provided important clues to the real geological complexity of the Moon, and have shown us that we still do not yet adequately understand the geologic history of Earth's companion. These missions, like Galileo during its lunar flyby, are providing global information viewed through new kinds of windows, and providing a fresh context for models of lunar origin, evolution, and resources, and perhaps even some grist for new questions and new hypotheses. The probable detection and characterization of water ice at the poles, the extreme concentration of Th and other radioactive elements in the Procellarum-Imbrium-Frigon's resurfaced areas of the nearside of the Moon, and the high-resolution gravity modeling enabled by these missions are examples of the kinds of exciting new results that must be integrated with the extant body of knowledge based on sample studies, in situ experiments, and remote-sensing missions to bring about the best possible understanding of the Moon and its history.

Jolliff, Brad L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Nature of the Organic Signature in Dust from the Interstellar Medium: Laboratory Analog Studies

We measured the infrared (IR) nu(sub CH) absorption bands around 3.4 microns (2800 - 3000 cm(sup -1) in large laboratory-grown magnesium oxide (MgO) and natural olivine single crystals that crystallized from CO/CO2/H2O saturated melts. These bands are very similar to those from many astronomical sources, such as from dust in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM), from the outflow of evolved stars, etc., and they are characteristic of aliphatic -CH2- and -CH3 entities. In our laboratory single crystals the VCH bands arise from C-H entities that were introduced by a solid solution process, and that are imbedded in the mineral matrix in form of polyatomic C(sub n) entities with C atoms bonded to O and to H. Heating breaks the C-H bonds, causing hydrogen to disperse in the mineral matrix. C-H bonds are re-established rapidly during annealing. We propose that dust grains probably contain the same type of internal C(sub n)-H entities in solid matrix rather than an external organic layer covering the grain surfaces. Thermodynamical arguments show that the concentration of organics in solid solution in small grains can be comparable to that found in astronomical environments.

Freund, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Role of Probabilistic Micromechanics Modeling in Establishing Design Allowables in Composites

One of the major challenges in designing with any new material, and particularly with advanced composite materials, is the fidelity of material design allowables. In the case of composite materials, the concern arises from the inherent nature of these materials, i.e., their heterogeneous make-up and the various factors that affect their properties in a specific design environment. Composites have various scales - micro, macro, laminate and structural, as well as numerous other fabrication related parameters. Many advanced composites in aerospace applications involve complex two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and requires high-temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these, the observed behavior of composite materials shows scatter. Evaluating the effect of each of these variables on the observed scatter in composite properties solely by teSting is cost and time prohibitive. One alternative is to evaluate these effects by computational simulation. The authors have developed probabilistic composite micromechanics techniques by combining woven composite micromechanics and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques to address these issues. In this paper these techniques will be described and demonstrated through selected examples. Results in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the composite properties of a MI (melt-infiltrated) SiC/SiC (silicon carbide fiber in a silicon carbide matrix) Composite will be presented. A CDF is a relationship defined by the value of the property (the response variable) with respect to the cumulative probability of occurrence. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Sensitivity information is very valuable in quality control. How these results can be utilized to develop design allowables so that these materials may be used by structural analysts/designers will also be discussed.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The solar wind interaction with Mars revisited

No consensus has yet been reached on the nature of the solar wind interaction with Mars, especially with respect to the existence of a small, intrinsic field magnetosphere at Mars, as opposed to a Venus-like ionospheric interaction. An attempt is made to resolve this question through an improved determination of effective obstacle altitude and shape having as its basis the Spreiter and Stahara (1980) catalog of gasdynamic flow solutions. It is also shown that the Martian ionosphere cannot support a Venus-like ionopause at the obstacle altitudes inferred through bow wave observation modelling, even when maximal induced ionospheric magnetic fields and solar maximum EUV levels are assumed. Finally, a search of Mars and Mariner radio occultation measurements has produced no evidence for the existence of an ionopause. It is concluded that Mars probably possesses a small, intrinsic field magnetosphere.

Slavin, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A new look at rainfall fluctuations and scaling properties of spatial rainfall using orthogonal wavelets

It has been observed that the finite-dimensional distribution functions of rainfall cannot obey simple scaling laws due to rainfall intermittency (mixed distribution with an atom at zero) and the probability of rainfall being an increasing function of area. Although rainfall fluctuations do not suffer these limitations, it is interesting to note that very few attempts have been made to study them in terms of their self-similarity characteristics. This is due to the lack of unambiguous definition of fluctuations in multidimensions. This paper shows that wavelet transforms offer a convenient and consistent method for the decomposition of inhomogeneous and anisotropic rainfall fields in two dimensions and that the components of this decomposition can be looked at as fluctuations of the rainfall field. It is also shown that under some mild assumptions, the component fields can be treated as homogeneous and thus are amenable to second-order analysis, which can provide useful insight into the nature of the process. The fact that wavelet transforms are a space-scale method also provides a convenient tool to study scaling characteristics of the process. Orthogonal wavelets are used, and these properties are investigated for a squall-line storm to study the presence of self-similarity.

Kumar, Praveen↗

NASA NTRS1994

Lunar crescent visibility

We report the results of five Moonwatches, in which more than 2000 observers throughout North America attempted to sight the thin lunar crescent. For each Moonwatch we were able to determine the position of the Lunar Date Line (LDL), the line along which a normal observer has a 50% probability of spotting the Moon. The observational LDLs were then compared with predicted LDLs derived from crescent visibility prediction algorithms. We find that ancient and medieval rules are higly unreliable. More recent empirical criteria, based on the relative altitude and azimuth of the Moon at the time of sunset, have a reasonable accuracy, with the best specific formulation being due to Yallop. The modern theoretical model by Schaefer (based on the physiology of the human eye and the local observing conditions) is found to have the least systematic error, the least average error, and the least maximum error of all models tested. Analysis of the observations also provided information about atmospheric, optical and human factors that affect the observations. We show that observational lunar calendars have a natural bias to begin early.

Doggett, Leroy E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

An intercomparison of plasma turbulence at three comets: Grigg-Skjellerup, Giacobini-Zinner, and Halley

We examine and intercompare the LF plasma wave turbulence at three comets: Grigg-Skjellerup (GS), Giacobini-Zinner (GZ), and Halley (H). All three have power spectral peaks at the local ion cyclotron frequency (the pump wave) at approx. 10(exp -2) Hz, and a power-law fall-off at higher frequencies that suggest the development of turbulent cascades. The power laws for the three comets are approximately f(exp -1.9), f(exp -1.9) and f(exp -2.1), respectively. However, other than the similarities in the power spectra, we find the magnetic field turbulence is considerably different at the three comets. Phase steepening is demonstrated to occur at the trailing edges of the GS waves. This is probably due to nonlinear steepening plus dispersion of the left-hand mode components. A coherency analysis of GZ turbulence indicates that it is primarily composed of righthanded mode components, i.e., the turbulence is 'whistlermode.' This too can be explained by nonlinear steepening plus dispersion of the magnetosonic waves. At the level of GS and GZ turbulence development when the spacecraft measurements were made, classical three-wave processes, such as the decay or modulation instabilities do not appear to play important roles. It is most likely that the nonlinear steepening and dispersive time scales are more rapid than three-wave processes, and the latter had not had time to develop for the relatively 'new' turbulence. The wave turbulence at Halley is linearly polarized. The exact nature of this turbulence is still not well understood at this time. Several possibilities are suggested, based on our preliminary analyses.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Accessing FMS Functionality: The Impact of Design on Learning

In modern commercial and military aircraft, the Flight Management System (FMS) lies at the heart of the functionality of the airplane. The nature of the FMS has also caused great difficulties learning and accessing this functionality. This study examines actual Air Force pilots who were qualified on the newly introduced advanced FMS and shows that the design of the system itself is a primary source of difficulty learning the system. Twenty representative tasks were selected which the pilots could be expected to accomplish on an ' actual flight. These tasks were analyzed using the RAFIV stage model (Sherry, Polson, et al. 2002). This analysis demonstrates that a great burden is placed on remembering complex reformulation of the task to function mapping. 65% of the tasks required retaining one access steps in memory to accomplish the task, 20% required two memorized access steps, and 15% required zero memorized access steps. The probability that a participant would make an access error on the tasks was: two memorized access steps - 74%, one memorized access step - 13%, and zero memorized access steps - 6%. Other factors were analyzed as well, including experience with the system and frequency of use. This completed the picture of a system with many memorized steps causing difficulty with the new system, especially when trying to fine where to access the correct function.

Fennell, Karl↗

NASA NTRS1998

Extraterrestrial organic matter: a review

We review the nature of the widespread organic material present in the Milky Way Galaxy and in the Solar System. Attention is given to the links between these environments and between primitive Solar System objects and the early Earth, indicating the preservation of organic material as an interstellar cloud collapsed to form the Solar System and as the Earth accreted such material from asteroids, comets and interplanetary dust particles. In the interstellar medium of the Milky Way Galaxy more than 100 molecular species, the bulk of them organic, have been securely identified, primarily through spectroscopy at the highest radio frequencies. There is considerable evidence for significantly heavier organic molecules, particularly polycyclic aromatics, although precise identification of individual species has not yet been obtained. The so-called diffuse interstellar bands are probably important in this context. The low temperature kinetics in interstellar clouds leads to very large isotopic fractionation, particularly for hydrogen, and this signature is present in organic components preserved in carbonaceous chondritic meteorites. Outer belt asteroids are the probable parent bodies of the carbonaceous chondrites, which may contain as much as 5% organic material, including a rich variety of amino acids, purines, pyrimidines, and other species of potential prebiotic interest. Richer in volatiles and hence less thermally processed are the comets, whose organic matter is abundant and poorly characterized. Cometary volatiles, observed after sublimation into the coma, include many species also present in the interstellar medium. There is evidence that most of the Earth's volatiles may have been supplied by a 'late' bombardment of comets and carbonaceous meteorites, scattered into the inner Solar System following the formation of the giant planets. How much in the way of intact organic molecules of potential prebiotic interest survived delivery to the Earth has become an increasingly debated topic over the last several years. The principal source for such intact organics was probably accretion of interplanetary dust particles of cometary origin.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS1987

Nature and origin of mineral coatings on volcanic rocks of the Black Mountain, Stonewall Mountain, and Kane Springs, Wash volcanic centers, Southern Nevada

LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery was evaluated over 3 Tertiary calderas in southern Nevada. Each volcanic center derived from a highly evolved silici magmatic system represented today by well exposed diverse lithologies. Distinctive imagery contrast between some of the late ash flows and earlier units follows from the high relative reflectance in longer wavelength bands (bands 5 and 7) of the former. Enhancement techniques provide color composite images which highlight some of the units in remarkable color contrast. Inasmuch as coatings on the tuffs are incompletely developed and apparently largely dependent spectrally on rock properties independent of petrochemistry, it is felt that the distinctive imagery characteristics are more a function of primary lithologic or petrochemical properties. Any given outcrop is backdrop for a variety of cover types, of which coatings, at various stages of maturity, are one. Petrographic and X-ray diffraction analysis of the outer air-interface zone of coatings reveal they are composed chiefly of amorphous compounds, probably with varying proportions of iron and manganese. Observations support an origin for some outer (air-interface) coating constituents exogenous to the underlying host.

Taranik, James V.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The nature of NML Cygnus

Since the discovery of NML Cyg by Neugebauer et al. (1965), its nature has been uncertain because its distance and luminosity are not known. NML Cyg is partially surrounded by an H II region which is heavily obscured by intervening interstellar matter. This H II region has been mapped in the continuum at 21 cm, and it seems clearly associated with the star. In the present investigation it is proposed that the H II region has been created by ionizing radiation from the Cyg OB2 association. The close agreement between the observed structure of the H II region and that predicted by the considered model provides strong evidence that NML Cyg is indeed at the distance of the association, 2 kpc. At this distance it is among the most luminous red stars shown. Because of its high luminosity, NML Cygnus is probably a massive star of perhaps 50 solar masses.

Morris, M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗