SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Fundamental limitations on photoisomerization from thermodynamic resource theories

Small, out-of-equilibrium, and quantum systems defy simple thermodynamic expressions. Such systems are exemplified by molecular switches, which exchange heat with a bath. These molecules can photoisomerize, or change conformation, or switch, on absorbing light. The photoisomerization probability depends on kinetic details that couple the molecule’s energetics to its dissipation. Therefore, a simple, general, thermodynamic-style bound on the photoisomerization probability seems out of reach. We derive such a bound using a resource theory. The resource-theory framework is a set of mathematical tools, developed in quantum information theory, used to generalize thermodynamics to small and quantum settings. From this toolkit has been derived a generalization of the second law, the thermomajorization preorder. We use thermomajorization to upper-bound the photoisomerization probability. Then, we compare the bound with an equilibrium prediction and with a Lindbladian model. We identify a realistic parameter regime in which the Lindbladian evolution saturates the thermomajorization bound. We also quantify the energy coherence in the electronic degree of freedom, and we argue that this coherence cannot promote photoisomerization. Overall, this work illustrates how quantum-information-theoretic thermodynamics can elucidate complex quantum processes in nature, experiments, and synthetics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploratory Precipitation Metrics: Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Process-Oriented, and Phenomena-Based

Abstract Precipitation sustains life and supports human activities, making its prediction one of the most societally relevant challenges in weather and climate modeling. Limitations in modeling precipitation underscore the need for diagnostics and metrics to evaluate precipitation in simulations and predictions. While routine use of basic metrics is important for documenting model skill, more sophisticated diagnostics and metrics aimed at connecting model biases to their sources and revealing precipitation characteristics relevant to how model precipitation is used are critical for improving models and their uses. This paper illustrates examples of exploratory diagnostics and metrics including 1) spatiotemporal characteristics metrics such as diurnal variability, probability of extremes, duration of dry spells, spectral characteristics, and spatiotemporal coherence of precipitation; 2) process-oriented metrics based on the rainfall–moisture coupling and temperature–water vapor environments of precipitation; and 3) phenomena-based metrics focusing on precipitation associated with weather phenomena including low pressure systems, mesoscale convective systems, frontal systems, and atmospheric rivers. Together, these diagnostics and metrics delineate the multifaceted and multiscale nature of precipitation, its relations with the environments, and its generation mechanisms. The metrics are applied to historical simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models exhibit diverse skill as measured by the suite of metrics, with very few models consistently ranked as top or bottom performers compared to other models in multiple metrics. Analysis of model skill across metrics and models suggests possible relationships among subsets of metrics, motivating the need for more systematic analysis to understand model biases for informing model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential Formation Damage: An Integrated Reservoir Characterization Study of the Naturally Fractured Carbonate Middle Duperow Formation at the Kevin Dome, Montana

In this study, we integrate geologic and engineering data of a naturally fractured carbonate reservoir at the Kevin Dome, Montana. Well test data are correlated with core description, geochemical and lithology study to determine the flow behavior and communication within the injection test interval and to the surrounding area. Based on a dual-continuum geologic model, numerical brine injection simulations are carried out to validate the interpretation results from our well test analytical models and forecast the probability of CO 2 injection success using current reservoir properties. As a result, our well test analytical models as well as lithology/core description suggest that fluid flow may be mainly restricted to the injection interval and the assumption of radial (horizontal) flow may be appropriate. The well test models also indicate that there is potentially formation damage with a positive skin factor although prior to brine injection well tests, well stimulation through acid treatment was performed. Our numerical simulation results appear to confirm this formation damage by showing additional pressure buildup in the injection data during later test periods. To explain this, acid may have dissolved dolomite then dolomite or calcite may have been formed again further into the matrix/fracture system. Another possible explanation is mechanical clogging of the fractures due to acid dissolving dolomite and dislodging fine grains. Our work also predicts that if no additional well stimulation is performed, the project will have a lower probability of successfully injecting 1 million tons of CO 2 into the Middle Duperow formation over 4 years.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1984

Meteoritic constraints on processes in the solar nebula

High-temperature events or processes in the solar nebula were required to form the chondrules and CAI's that make up the bulk of the substance of most chondrites. There is no consensus in the meteoritical community as to the nature of these high-temperature events or processes. In spite of this major area of uncertainty several conclusions can be reached about properties of the nebula. The chondrules and CAI's were formed in regions where the dust/gas ratio was orders of magnitude above the cosmic value. After these high-temperature objects were formed, they began to accrete very promptly (a time scale of hours, probably). Formation and aggregation of the chondrite components happened at the same radial distance in the nebula where chondrites reside today (the asteroid belt). The ambient temperature of the nebula at that time and place was relatively low ( 700 K), and was not responsible for the thermal processing of the chondrules and CAI's.

Wood, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Are the C delta light nitrogen and noble gases located in the same carrier?

Light nitrogen and the HL family noble gas components of C(sub delta) appear to be separable by high resolution pyrolysis experiments. Thus C(sub delta) is not a homogeneous material and probably consists of debris of many stars. The question of whether the N and Xe(HL) actually reside in different carriers continues to be addressed. It is well known that C(sub delta) which was identified as nanometer sized diamonds contains isotopically anamalous elements, in particular noble gases including Xe(HL) and its family and light nitrogen (delta(N-15) down to -350 percent). Before the true nature of C(sub delta) was recognized, it was easy to suppose that the Xe(HL) and light nitrogen were located in the same carrier. However, recognition that light nitrogen in diamond from different samples varies by greater than a factor of six compared to Xe(HL) fluctuations of ca. 20 percent makes such an assumption questionable. On the basis of simple arithmetic logic, the Xe and nitrogen cannot be absolutely co-located. The average diamond grain consists of only about 1000-2000 atoms of carbon; one grain among a few x 10(exp 6) contains an atom of Xe(HL) while 5-30 atoms of light nitrogen are the typical number which need to be in every diamond grain to account for observed concentrations. If some grains are devoid of N, the others have to have a higher N concentration. Even if we were able to analyze an individual grain of the diamond for noble gases and nitrogen, we would be faced with the monumental task of locating the one amongst 10(exp 6) identical grains containing the Xe atom to examine its nitrogen content. The problem can be simplified to some extent if instead of Xe, He which is 10(exp 4) times more abundant is assumed to be a member of the HL family. Attempts to fractionate the separate carriers might be attempted using He and N as guiding indicators but even experiments of this nature are for the future. Faced with apparently insoluble problems, we have returned to an investigation we last used in our original efforts to find isotopically light nitrogen, that is to compare release patterns of the different components during stepped pyrolysis and combustion.

Verchovsky, A. B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Study of magnetic notions in the solar photosphere and their implications for heating the solar atmosphere

This progress report covers the first year of NASA Grant NAGw-2545, a study of magnetic structure in the solar photosphere and chromosphere. We have made significant progress in three areas: (1) analysis of vorticity in photospheric convection, which probably affects solar atmospheric heating through the stresses it imposes on photospheric magnetic fields; (2) modelling of the horizontal motions of magnetic footpoints in the solar photosphere using an assumed relation between brightness and vertical motion as well as continuity of flow; and (3) observations and analysis of infrared CO lines formed near the solar temperature minimum, whose structure and dynamics also yield important clues to the nature of heating of the upper atmosphere. Each of these areas are summarized in this report, with copies of those papers prepared or published this year included.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

CARES/Life Ceramics Durability Evaluation Software Used for Mars Microprobe Aeroshell

The CARES/Life computer program, which was developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center, predicts the probability of a monolithic ceramic component's failure as a function of time in service. The program has many features and options for materials evaluation and component design. It couples commercial finite element programs-which resolve a component's temperature and stress distribution-to-reliability evaluation and fracture mechanics routines for modeling strength-limiting defects. These routines are based on calculations of the probabilistic nature of the brittle material's strength. The capability, flexibility, and uniqueness of CARES/Life has attracted many users representing a broad range of interests and has resulted in numerous awards for technological achievements and technology transfer.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Effect of Latitude Bias in Entry Angle on Ground Casualty Risk from Naturally Decaying Space Objects

An improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from naturally decaying space objects is the refinement to the distribution of entry angle at the entry interface as a function of latitude. Previous analyses were based on an assumed "small angle," typically -0.1°, and entry interface at the equator. This study expands on work by Bacon and Matney that indicated there is significant latitude bias in the location of reentries, compared to prior assumptions of equal temporal probability. A new model has been developed, which describes the distribution of entry angle as a function of orbital inclination and argument of latitude. This model has been used to generate inputs for ODPO’s certified reentry survivability software, Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). These new results are compared with the prior standard model to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The nature of cometary materials

Because cometary surfaces are likely to be far colder and of a different composition than planetary surfaces, there are some new considerations that must be examined in regards to placing instrumented packages or sample return devices on their surfaces. The qualitative analysis of the problem of attaching hardware to a comet and not being ejected back into space can be divided into two parts. The first problem is to pierce the mantle and obtain access to the icy core. Drilling through the mantle requires that the drilling forces be reacted. Reacting such forces probably requires attachment to the icy core below. Therefore, some kinetic impact piercing device is likely to be required as the first act of attachment. The second problem for a piercing device to overcome is the force produced by the impact kinetic energy that tries to eject the piercing device back into space. The mantle and icy core can absorb some of the impact kinetic energy in the form of fracture formation and friction energy. The energy that is not absorbed in these two ways is stored by the core as elastic deformation of the mantle and icy core. It is concluded that because the cometary materials are almost certainly brittle and the icy core is likely to be self lubricating, the elastic rebound and gas pressure expulsion forces must be counteracted by forces greater than those that may be provided by a piercing device or its capture devices (barbs).

Stephens, James↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating nonlinear optical processes on a superconducting quantum device

Simulating plasma physics on quantum computers is difficult because most problems of interest are nonlinear, but quantum computers are not naturally suitable for nonlinear operations. In weakly nonlinear regimes, plasma problems can be modelled as wave–wave interactions. In this paper, we develop a quantization approach to convert nonlinear wave–wave interaction problems to Hamiltonian simulation problems. We demonstrate our approach using two qubits on a superconducting device. Unlike a photonic device, a superconducting device does not naturally have the desired interactions in its native Hamiltonian. Nevertheless, Hamiltonian simulations can still be performed by decomposing required unitary operations into native gates. To improve experimental results, we employ a range of error-mitigation techniques. Apart from readout error mitigation, we use randomized compilation to transform undiagnosed coherent errors into well-behaved stochastic Pauli channels. Moreover, to compensate for stochastic noise, we rescale exponentially decaying probability amplitudes using rates measured from cycle benchmarking. We carefully consider how different choices of product-formula algorithms affect the overall error and show how a trade-off can be made to best utilize limited quantum resources. This study provides an example of how plasma problems may be solved on near-term quantum computing platforms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1971

NASA, John F. Kennedy Space Center environmental impact statement

The probable total impact of the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) operations on the environment is discussed in terms of launch operations emissions and environmental quality. A schedule of planned launches through 1973 is included with a description of the systems for eliminating harmful emissions during launch operations. The effects of KSC on wild life and environmental quality are discussed along with the irreversible and irretrievable commitments of natural resources.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

Optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change - Application to the carbon dioxide problem

It is suggested that a weighting of surface temperature data, using information about the expected level of warming in different seasons and geographical regions and statistical information about the amount of natural variability in surface temperature, can improve the chances of early detection of carbon dioxide concentration-induced climatic warming. A preliminary analysis of the optimal weighting method presented suggests that it is 25 per cent more effective in revealing surface warming than the conventional method, in virtue of the fact that 25 per cent more data must conventionally be analyzed in order to arrive at a similar probability of detection. An approximate calculation suggests that the warming ought to have already been detected, if the only sources of significant surface temperature variability had time scales of less than one year.

Bell, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd Isotopic Studies of Antarctic Nakhlite MIL 03346

Nakhlites are olivine-bearing clinopyroxenites with cumulate textures, and probably came from Mars [e.g., 1]. A total of seven nakhlites have been identified so far. Unlike other martian meteorites (e.g., shergottites), nakhlites have been only moderately shocked and their original igneous textures are still well-preserved. Also, these meteorites have similarly older crystallization ages of approx.1.3 Ga compared to shergottites with ages of approx.0.18-0.57 Ga [e.g., 2]. MIL 03346 is characterized by abundant (approx.20 vol %) glassy mesostasis, indicating that it cooled rapidly and probably formed near the top [3] or at the bottom [4] of the chilled margin of a thick intrusive body. The mesostasis quenched from the trapped intercumulus liquid may provide information on the parent magma compositions of the nakhlites. In this report, we present Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd isotopic data for MIL 03346, discuss correlation of its age with those of other nakhlites and the nature of their source regions in the Martian mantle.

Shih, C.-Y.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Rotational spectral variations of asteroid (8) Flora Implications for the nature of the S-type asteroids and for the parent bodies of the ordinary chondrites

The surface material and the surface material heterogeneities of the asteroid Flora are characterized using the best available data sets and the most sophisticated interpretive calibrations. Five spectrally derived mineralogic and patrologic properties of the surface assemblage of Flora which are relevant to whether this body is a differentiated or undifferentiated object are considered: bulk mineralogy, mafic mineral assemblage, metallic phase, pyroxene composition and structural type, and mineralogic variation. All of these properties indicate that Flora is a differentiated body. Flora is probably the residual core of an intensely heated, thermally evolved, and magnetically differentiated planetesimal which was subsequently disrupted. The present surface sample layers formed at or near the core-mantle boundary in the parent body.

Gaffey, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Osmotic control of the spacing of parallel shear cracks in shale growing subcritically in geologic past

The geological genesis of natural cracks in sedimentary rocks such as shale is a problem that needs to be understood to improve the technology of hydraulic fracturing as well as deep sequestration of harmful fluids. Why are the vertical natural cracks roughly parallel and equidistant, and why is the spacing roughly 10 cm rather than 1 cm or 100 cm? Fracture mechanics of critical cracks cannot answer this question. Neither can the material heterogeneity. The growth of critical parallel cracks is impossible because the relative crack face displacements would immediately localize into one crack, leading to an earthquake. The cracks must have formed, on the tectonic time scale, by a slow growth of subcritical shear cracks governed by the Charles-Evans law. The idea advanced here is that what controls the crack spacing is the balance between the reduction, due to shear dilatancy, of the concentration of ions such as Na + and Cl - in each fracture process zone (PFZ), which decelerates the cracks, and the restoration of ion concentration by diffusion of ions from the space between the cracks into the FPZ. This diffusion of water is driven mainly by the osmotic pressure gradient, which offsets the deceleration and depends strongly on the crack spacing. A simple analytical solution of the steady state is rendered possible by approximating the ion concentration profiles between adjacent cracks by parabolic arcs. Applying this theory to Woodford shale yields the approximate crack spacing of 10 cm, which is realistic. Furthermore, the stability of unlimited parallel mode II frictional crack growth is proven by examining the second variation of the free energy. Water concentration drop in the FPZ due to shear dilatancy and its restoration by water diffusion from the inter-crack space have similar effect, although probably much weaker.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1976

A search of the SAS-2 data for pulsed gamma-ray emission from radio pulsars

Data from the SAS-2 high-energy (above 35 MeV) gamma-ray experiment have been examined for pulsed emission from each of 75 radio pulsars which were viewed by the instrument and which have sufficiently well-defined period and period-derivative information from radio observations to allow for gamma-ray periodicity searches. When gamma-ray arrival times were converted to pulsar phase using the radio reference timing information, two pulsars, PSR 1747-46 and PSR 1818-04, showed positive effects, each with a probability of less than 1 part in 10,000 of being a random fluctuation in the data for that pulsar. These are in addition to PSR 0531+21 and PSR 0833-45, previously reported. The results of this study suggest that gamma-ray astronomy has reached the detection threshold for gamma-ray pulsars and that work in the near future should give important new information on the nature of pulsars.

Ogelman, H.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Multi-sensor Evaluation of Precipitation Uncertainty for Landslide-triggering Storm Events

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select among a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity-duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of reported landslides across the continental US and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296mm with an average range of 51mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8262745mm/hr and as much as 57mm/hr. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit-ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually-verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.

Precipitation inter-comparison↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗