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At least 721 records · Page 40

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Robust highly durable solid oxide fuel cell cathodes – Improved materials compatibility & self-regulating surface chemistry

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are electrochemical conversion devices that directly transform hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuels to electricity, with energy efficiencies as high as 90%, coupled with reduced emissions. Several factors, however, remain to be addressed when considering scale-up of SOFC technology, including the need to overcome decreased performance due to sluggish rates of the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) at the cathode under reduced temperatures and susceptibility to degradation in performance from surface poisoning e.g. from chromia, while limiting the use of critical raw materials (lanthanides and transition metals) present in high performing mixed ionic electronic conducting electrodes like (La,Sr)CoO 3 (LSC). In this project we explored the key descriptors for determining ORR activity in SOFC electrodes and tried to recover performance degradation by applying them to SOFC electrodes. In order to do this, we first selected a model mixed ionic electronic conducting (MIEC) oxide, Pr-doped CeO 2 (Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ , PCO), which is a chemically stable fluorite and free of inherent poison sources (e.g. Sr segregation in LSC) that potentially react with external impurities such as Cr-species vaporized from the interconnect. The three approaches originally planned in this project are as follows: 1) evaluation of scavenger exsolution characteristics, 2) study of scavengers gettering efficacy following Cr and Si poisoning and 3) integration of new compositions into porous electrodes. Among them, exceptional progress has been made in 2) and 3), especially understanding the role of surface infiltrants in impacting electrode performance and degradation of PCO materials. We found that the Smith acidity scale for binary oxides serves as a powerful descriptor for tuning and predicting the oxygen exchange kinetics on MIEC PCO surfaces. As a result, with infiltration with binary oxides, ranging from strongly basic (Li 2 O) to strongly acidic (SiO 2 ) onto the surface of porous PCO, it was possible to systematically vary the chemical surface exchange coefficient (k chem ) by 6 orders of magnitude! L i2 O increased k chem by nearly 1,000 times over that of pristine PCO, while SiO 2 decreased k chem by nearly the same factor. Strikingly, although the pre-exponential of k chem scales linearly with the acidity of the infiltrated binary oxide, there is nearly no change in the activation energy. With this insight, we attributed the origin of these dramatic changes in k chem values to the systematic increase and decrease in the surface electron density induced by infiltrated binary oxides. More interestingly, although both Cr 2 O 3 and SiO 2 were determined to be acidic by Smith, suggesting that this feature could likely be the primary reason that these compounds serve to poison the ORR on SOFC cathodes, the effect of poisoning could be subsequently tuned by adding multiple infiltrants and controlling their relative surface acidities. We also systematically examined the effect of serial infiltration of basic and acidic oxides. It turned out that serial infiltration of Li not only recovers approximately 20-fold degraded k chem of PCO by acidic Cr 2 O 3 but its k chem is enhanced even beyond that of the non-infiltrated PCO by more than three orders of magnitude. This was further verified with a screen-printing PCO symmetric cell in terms of the electrode performance (area-specific resistance, ASR) related to approach 3). These observations point to acidity as a key descriptor not only in tuning and predicting the ORR activity of SOFC cathodes that largely determines the overall performance of SOFC, but in mitigating and reactivating poisoned electrode performance. This work provides novel guidelines for making the electrode performance much more active and robust in SOFCs, which can further be applied to all applications requiring oxygen exchange reaction, such as electrolyzers, permeation membranes and gas sensors.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A Forward-Looking Dataset of EV Managed Charging Resource and Costs

This presentation summarizes a high-resolution, forward-looking dataset of EV adoption, EV charging, and managed charging resource. Vehicle-level data are grounded in current adoption and charging patterns, and ~200,000 real-world vehicle-weeks of travel data covering all on-road segments (i.e., light-duty, transit and school buses, local, regional and long-haul medium- and heavy-duty). The data, which include multiple charging profiles per vehicle to bound flexibility, are then processed and aggregated to describe baseline charging and charge management resource by county, hour, year, scenario, and vehicle type. Coupled with one of four scenarios of how EV managed charging costs might evolve over time, the dataset enables a power sector capacity expansion model to select cost-optimal quantities of EV managed charging and supply-side resources to reliably satisfy demand. Five integration strategies: Baseline, Daytime and Flat (passive), Flex (active), and Stress (anti-strategy), illustrate how baseline charging and flexibility potential changes with EVSE build-out and charging preferences.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Glass Property-Composition Models Update for use in Direct Feed High-Level Waste Flowsheet Development: EWG3.0

A set of preliminary glass property models and constraints were developed and augmented by models from literature for use in design of Direct Feed High-Level Waste glasses for flowsheet evaluation, testing, and design of the High-Level Waste Facility at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. These models and constraints are meant to be used as a placeholder while glass property-composition data gaps are filled and final plant operating models are developed. This report describes the motivation and intended use of the models, the compilation of data, model fitting and selection, and methods to apply the models and constraints in glass design, and offers example calculations demonstrating their intended use.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Comparison of Social Media, Syndromic Surveillance, and Microbiologic Acute Respiratory Infection Data: Observational Study

Internet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study. This study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset. This study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users’ tweets. Of 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants’ tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P≤.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P≤.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19). To our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Soot Formation and Ignition Characteristics of Ethanol/Gasoline Blends in a Rapid Compression Machine

With the ever-increasing demand for sustainable energy, alcohol fuels have garnered interest for use in heavy duty engines. The significant infrastructure for ethanol production and blending of ethanol with gasoline make these fuels/fuel blends desirable candidates. However, development of heavy duty engine technology that is capable of burning alcohol fuels while retaining the advantages of traditional diesel combustion requires an improved understanding of the soot formation for these fuels under conditions relevant to mixing-controlled combustion. This work uses an extinction diagnostic to study the sooting tendency of ethanol and gasoline/ethanol blends ranging from E10 to E98 during ignition in a homogeneous environment. Experiments were conducted in a rapid compression machine (RCM) for compressed conditions of 20 ± 1 bar and an approximately constant temperature (± 10K) which was unique for each fuel. For a given soot volume fraction, a linear relationship was observed between ethanol content and the equivalence ratio in which that soot volume fraction was formed. Accounting for the oxygenated nature of ethanol, E85 and E98 fuels produced similar amounts of soot at a given Φ ox, , suggesting other factors outside of fuel oxygen content, such as fuel morphology, impact soot formation. Ignition delay data is reported for compressed pressures of 20 ± 1 bar and compressed temperatures ranging from 633 – 670 K for E10 and 771 – 789 K for E98. Varying pressures for E10 and E98 at conditions producing similar soot volume fractions demonstrated a linear dependence of soot formation on pressure, regardless of if the pressure considered was at top dead center or peak combustion pressure. Furthermore, the data gleaned from this work will be used to select soot models and chemical kinetic mechanisms for RCM simulations to ultimately model heavy duty engine technology with the studied fuels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development of mathematical models of environmental physiology

Selected articles concerned with mathematical or simulation models of human thermoregulation are presented. The articles presented include: (1) development and use of simulation models in medicine, (2) model of cardio-vascular adjustments during exercise, (3) effective temperature scale based on simple model of human physiological regulatory response, (4) behavioral approach to thermoregulatory set point during exercise, and (5) importance of skin temperature in sweat regulation.

Stolwijk, J. A. J.↗

Results of an aerodynamic force and moment investigation of an 0.015-scale configuration 3 space shuttle orbiter in the NASA/ARC 3.5-foot hypersonic wind tunnel (OA58)

The primary objective of the test was to obtain stability and control data for the basic configuration and an alternate configuration for the Space Shuttle Orbiter. Pitch runs were made with 0 deg of sideslip at Mach numbers of 5.3, 7.3 and 10.3. Six-component force data and fuselage base pressures were recorded for each run. Shadowgraph pictures were taken at selected points. Model 420 was used for the tests.

Dziubala, T. J.↗

Application of an invariant second-order closure model to compressible turbulent shear layers

A second-order closure model for two-dimensional, compressible shear flows is investigated using the invariant modeling technique developed by Donaldson. The invariant model parameters were originally selected by comparison of model predictions with critical experimental data on basic incompressible flows. Additional modeling for compressible flows has been introduced. A number of different shear flows such as the free shear layer, flat plate boundary layer and a simulation of the mixing region of a chemical laser are computed. The model is consistent with first-order closure turbulence models for equilibrium flows and is further capable of predicting nonequilibrium flows that cannot be correctly solved by eddy viscosity models. The results are in generally good agreement with experimental measurements but suggest the need for inclusion of a Mach number dependent model of the pressure diffusion terms in order to adequately represent high speed compressible flows.

Varma, A. K.↗

Application of a new criterion for modeling systems

A new criterion is proposed for modeling systems which promises to be useful in deciding how complex a model should be. The criterion is based on the expected model response error instead of the error in fitting the data used for estimating the model parameters. The new criterion also does not require withholding data to be used exclusively for testing. There remains, however, the difficulty of testing a large number of candidate models that correspond to the combinations of terms used in the dynamic equations. A computational approach is suggested which greatly reduces the computations required in searching for the best model. In the suggested approach the gradient of the response with respect to the model coefficients is held fixed and numerous combinations of terms are assessed. After determining the most promising candidate model, the gradient is updated and the process is repeated. This procedure gives greater assurance that the best model is selected and does not rely on the analyst's judgement.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗

Crew appliance study

Viable crew appliance concepts were identified by means of a thorough literature search. Studies were made of the food management, personal hygiene, housekeeping, and off-duty habitability functions to determine which concepts best satisfy the Space Shuttle Orbiter and Modular Space Station mission requirements. Models of selected appliance concepts not currently included in the generalized environmental-thermal control and life support systems computer program were developed and validated. Development plans of selected concepts were generated for future reference. A shuttle freezer conceptual design was developed and a test support activity was provided for regenerative environmental control life support subsystems.

Proctor, B. W.↗

An integrated study of earth resources in the state of California using remote sensing techniques

The author has identified the following significant results. A weighted stratified double sample design using hardcopy LANDSAT-1 and ground data was utilized in developmental studies for snow water content estimation. Study results gave a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between LANDSAT sample units estimates of snow water content and ground subsamples. A basin snow water content estimate allowable error was given as 1.00 percent at the 99 percent confidence level with the same budget level utilized in conventional snow surveys. Several evapotranspiration estimation models were selected for efficient application at each level of data to be sampled. An area estimation procedure for impervious surface types of differing impermeability adjacent to stream channels was developed. This technique employs a double sample of 1:125,000 color infrared hightflight transparency data with ground or large scale photography.

Colwell, R. N.↗