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At least 721 records · Page 40

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

Validation of the IRI-2016 model with Indian NavIC data for future navigation applications

The position accuracy of Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC) system is affected by several sources of errors. Among them, the Ionospheric Time Delay (ITD) error is the most predominant one which depends upon the total electron content (TEC) present in the ionosphere. The ITD variations are more intense over low latitude regions due to the equatorial anomaly effects. Hence, modelling of ITD error is necessary. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 model is one of the standard global ionospheric models to estimate the Vertical TEC (VTEC). This paper discusses about the VTEC deviations due to the IRI-2016 model over low latitude Hyderabad station, Indian region using NavIC, Global Positioning System and Global Navigation Satellite System signals at corresponding Ionospheric Pierce Point latitude and longitudes for all months and various Kp indices during the low solar activity year 2017. In this work, cross correlation coefficient, the metric norm (L2N), Symmetric Kullbacke Leibler Distance metrics are used to evaluate the performance of IRI-2016 model TEC with NavIC, GPS and GLONASS data. From the results, it is found that TEC predicted by the IRI-2016 model produced smaller estimation errors with NavIC data over Indian region. The obtained results will be helpful for future updates of IRI model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Enhanced physics-constrained deep neural networks for modeling vanadium redox flow battery

Numerical simulation has become indispensable in advancing cost-effective process optimization and control of flow batteries. We propose an enhanced version of the physics-constrained deep neural network (PCDNN) approach to provide high-accuracy voltage predictions in the vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs). The purpose of the PCDNN approach is to enforce the physics-based zero-dimensional (0D) VRFB model in a neural network to assure model generalization for various battery operation conditions. However, limited by the simplifications of the 0D model, the PCDNN cannot capture sharp voltage changes in the extreme SOC regions. To improve the accuracy of voltage prediction at extreme ranges, we introduce a second (enhanced) DNN to mitigate the prediction errors carried from the 0D model itself and call the resulting approach enhanced PCDNN (ePCDNN). By comparing with experimental data, we demonstrate that the ePCDNN approach can accurately capture the voltage response throughout the charge–discharge cycle, including the tail region of the voltage discharge curve. The loss function for training the ePCDNN is designed to be flexible by adjusting the weights of the physics-constrained DNN and the enhanced DNN. In conclusion, this allows the ePCDNN framework to be transferable to battery systems with variable physical model fidelity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On The Jacobian of the ECEF J2 Gravitation Model

An Earth-centered, Earth-fixed (ECEF) inertial navigation system must compute the Jacobian of its employed gravitation model with respect to position while time-propagating the error covariance of the system. One commonly used gravitation model is the ‘J2 model’ which is a second-order truncation of the Earth’s spherical harmonic gravitation model. The J2 model is popular because it can quickly and efficiently be evaluated, and the truncation error is small: The ‘J3 term’ --- the third term in the spherical harmonic expansion --- is approximately 1000 times smaller than the J2 term.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A software environment for effective reliability management for pulsed power design

The reliable design of magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs) for very high current pulsed power machines must be accomplished in the future by utilizing a variety of sophisticated modeling tools. The complexity of the models required is high and the number of sub-models and approximations large. The potential for significant analyst error using a single tool is large, with possible reliability issues associated with the plasma modeling tools themselves or the chosen approach by the analyst to solve a given problem. Here, we report on a software infrastructure design that provides a workable framework for building self-consistent models and constraining feedback to limit analyst error. The framework and associated tools aid the development of physical intuition, the development of increasingly sophisticated models, and the comparison of performance results. The work lays the computational foundation for designing state-of-the-art pulsed-power experiments. The design and useful features of this environment are described. We discuss the utility of the Git source code management system and a GitLab interface for use in project management that extends beyond software development tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydrodynamic characterization of the coastal pioneer array ocean observing system

Ocean observation buoys require relatively small amounts of power, yet traditionally necessitate costly resupply trips for battery replacement. With the offshore location of the buoys and small power requirements, wave energy may be an effective solution for providing consistent and reliable power to support the buoy instrumentation. The US National Science Foundation Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) includes arrays of point absorber-like buoy systems used for ocean observation that have been deployed at multiple locations including the Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight. A study is currently underway to design a pitch resonator wave energy converter to supplement existing renewable energy generation for powering observation instrumentation. This paper details field measurements from surface moorings of the OOI Coastal Pioneer Array, which informs the subsequent development of a numerical model for the moored observation system. The model is developed in Wave Energy Converter Simulator (WEC-Sim), which leverages the Simscape multibody solver within the MATLAB/Simulink framework and linear potential flow theory to simulate the hydrodynamic interactions and multibody dynamics in 6 degrees of freedom. Multiple tuning variables are considered to produce a model for the system that matches well with empirical data (about 8% error). In conclusion, the WEC-Sim model will serve as a platform for integrating the pitch resonator wave energy converter concept and deployment preparation (detailed design including power take-off and control systems, response evaluation, etc.).

hydrodynamic modeling↗

Mitigating spectral bias in neural operators via high-frequency scaling for physical systems

Neural operators have emerged as powerful surrogates for modeling complex physical problems. However, they suffer from spectral bias making them oblivious to high-frequency modes, which are present in multiscale physical systems. Therefore, they tend to produce over-smoothed solutions, which is particularly problematic in modeling turbulence and for systems with intricate patterns and sharp gradients such as multi-phase flow systems. In this work, we introduce a new approach named high-frequency scaling (HFS) to mitigate spectral bias in convolutional-based neural operators. By integrating HFS with proper variants of UNet, we demonstrate a higher prediction accuracy by mitigating spectral bias in single and two-phase flow problems. Unlike Fourierbased techniques, HFS is directly applied to the latent space, thus eliminating the computational cost associated with the Fourier transform. Additionally, we investigate alternative spectral bias mitigation through a diffusion model conditioned on neural operators. While the diffusion model integrated with the standard neural operator may still suffer from significant errors, these errors are substantially reduced when the diffusion model is integrated with a HFS-enhanced neural operator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. I. Inverse Lagrangian analysis

Absolute measurements of solid-material compressibility by magnetically driven shockless dynamic compression experiments to multi-megabar pressures have the potential to greatly improve the accuracy and precision of pressure calibration standards for use in diamond anvil cell experiments. Here, to this end, we apply characteristics-based inverse Lagrangian analysis (ILA) to 11 sets of ramp-compression data on pure platinum (Pt) metal and then reduce the resulting weighted-mean stress–strain curve to the principal isentrope and room-temperature isotherm using simple models for yield stress and Grüneisen parameter. We introduce several improvements to methods for ILA and quasi-isentrope reduction, the latter including calculation of corrections in wave speed instead of stress and pressure to render results largely independent of initial yield stress while enforcing thermodynamic consistency near zero pressure. More importantly, we quantify in detail the propagation of experimental uncertainty through ILA and model uncertainty through quasi-isentrope reduction, considering all potential sources of error except the electrode and window material models used in ILA. Compared to previous approaches, we find larger uncertainty in longitudinal stress. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that uncertainty in the yield-stress model constitutes by far the largest contribution to uncertainty in quasi-isentrope reduction corrections. We present a new room-temperature isotherm for Pt up to 444 GPa, with 1-sigma uncertainty at that pressure of just under ±1.2%; the latter is about a factor of three smaller than uncertainty previously reported for multi-megabar ramp-compression experiments on Pt. The result is well represented by a Vinet-form compression curve with (isothermal) bulk modulus K 0 = 270.3 ± 3.8 GPa, pressure derivative K$^{'}_{0}$= 5.66 ± 0.10, and correlation coefficient $R_{K_{0},K^{'}_{0}}$= –0.843.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Optimization of spray breakup model parameters for predicting fuel spray and film characteristics in gasoline direct injection engines

This study investigated the behavior of gasoline direct injection (GDI) sprays using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The authors developed an approach to identify optimal spray breakup model parameters by evaluating an error function across numerous simulations, with the goal of minimizing discrepancies from experimental data. Using the optimal setup, the simulated spray matched well with projected liquid volume distributions, liquid penetration, and spray width measured in a constant-pressure continuous-flow chamber. To further validate the approach, the same setup was tested across various fuels, injectors, and operating conditions. Subsequently, the optimal setup, along with a recently developed spray-wall interaction model, were applied to a direct-injection spark-ignited engine under late-injection conditions to predict and evaluate fuel film formation and evolution at varying engine coolant temperatures. Here, with the centrally mounted injector directing the spray toward the piston, simulations indicated that the spray tends to impinge on the piston surface. The proposed simulation framework also accurately captured the aggregate film area on the piston surface, aligning with previously published experimental results. Moreover, simulations showed that increasing the coolant temperature from cold start conditions (333 K) to warm conditions (363 K) reduced the fuel mass deposited on the piston by roughly 50%. Furthermore, for the spray-guided engine configuration studied in this work, the CFD model predicted minimal film deposition on the spark plug electrodes regardless of the coolant temperatures due to a relatively weak in-cylinder flow during the compression phase.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)↗

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

H2OI95: A Stand-Alone Fortran Code for Evaluating the IAPWS-95 Equation-of-State Model for Water (Rev. 1)

H2OI95 is a stand-alone Fortran code for evaluating the IAPWS-95 equation-of-state model for the thermodynamic properties of water. It also evaluates the corresponding thermochemical properties of water consistent with the CODATA recommendations. The IAPWS-95 model is based on a model equation for the dimensionless Helmholtz energy for which the primary variables are the inverse reduced temperature (τ = T cr /T ) and reduced density (δ = ρ/ρ cr ). Here T is the absolute temperature (K), ρ is density (kg/m³), and the subscript “ cr ” refers to the critical point of water (647.096 K and 22.064 MPa pressure in this model, for which ρ cr is 322 kg/m³). The code solves four basic types of problems, distinguished by the specified inputs: 1. Temperature (K) and density (ρ kg/m³) or reduced density (δ) 2. Temperature (K) and pressure (MPa). 3. Temperature (K) on the saturation (liquid-vapor equilibrium) curve 4. Pressure (MPa) on the saturation curve. Each type of problem is run using a corresponding input (text) file. All but the first type of problem require iteration. For example, to solve for desired temperature and pressure, the reduced density must be adjusted to give the desired pressure. Iteration is accomplished using the Newton-Raphson method, though the secant method is also used in solving the fourth type of problem. For the last three types of problems, H2OI95 has been used to conduct numerical studies of convergence and the problem of multiple numerical solutions, some of which are not physically valid. Obtaining valid results depends mainly on appropriate choice of starting values for the density. The default values used in H2OI95 appear to consistently lead to generally desired results. With modification (not addressed here), H2OI95 can be used to support SUPCRT92 and similar codes that compute chemical thermodynamic properties of species and reactions over a wide range of temperature and pressure (273.16-1273K and 0-1000 MPa). Version 1.1 of this software calculates an extended set of water properties, including some derivable solely from IAPWS-95, such as the isobaric thermal expansivity and the isothermal compressibility, and still other properties based on supplementary models sanctioned by IAPWS, including the dynamic viscosity, thermal conductivity, surface tension, and static dielectric constant, and various other properties (notably Debye-Hückel parameters) derivable from the dielectric constant and its partial derivatives with respect to temperature and pressure. A coding error in Version 1.0 was identified while testing the implementation of the viscosity model. This error is described in Appendix C. It mainly affects calculation of “higher order” properties such as compressibility and heat capacity near the critical point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparative determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of the acoustic and optical variants of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model

We compare the acoustic Su–Schrieffer–Heeger (SSH) model with two of its optical variants where the phonons are defined on either on the sites or bonds of the system. First, we discuss how to make fair comparisons between these models in any dimension by ensuring their dimensionless coupling λ and relevant phonon energies are the same. We then use determinant quantum Monte Carlo to perform nonperturbative and sign-problem-free simulations of all three models on one-dimensional chains at and away from half-filling. By comparing the results obtained from each model, we demonstrate that the optical and acoustic models produce near identical results within error bars for suitably chosen phonon energies and λ at half-filling. In contrast, the bond model has quantitatively different behavior due to its coupling to the q = 0 phonon mode. These differences also manifest in the total length of the chain, which shrinks for the bond model but not for the acoustic and optical models when λ ≠ 0. Furthermore, our results have important implications for quantum Monte Carlo modeling of SSH-like interactions, where these models are sometimes regarded as being interchangeable.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

IDAES-PSE 2.1.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.1.0 Release Highlights New IDAES Examples Repository Starting with this release, the IDAES examples are developed in the new IDAES/examples repository. Along with many content and usability improvements, the most significant changes are: To install the examples, after installing IDAES, run pip install idaes-examples The idaes get-examples command, previously used for this, has been removed The HTML version is now available at https://idaes-examples.readthedocs.io The previous URL, https://idaes.github.io/examples-pse, will not be updated and may be removed at some point in the future For more details, refer to the resources available at IDAES/examples. Removal of Non-Functional Apps A review of the code in the idaes/apps and idaes/models_extra folders was undertaken, and a number of tools were identified as being outdated or non-functional and no longer supported by their development teams. Due to this, the following tools have been removed: idaes/apps/alamopy_depr (note that the new ALAMOpy interface remains avaialble in idaes/core/surrogates) idaes/apps/helmet idaes/apps/ripe idaes/apps/roundingRegression idaes/models_extra/carbon_capture Pyomo 6.6 This version of IDAES is the first requiring Pyomo 6.6. This version of Pyomo contains multiple internal improvements and refactorings. While for the majority of cases this should have positive or no impact on solvability of IDAES models, we are aware of a small number of models that have been affected as a result of these changes. For more information, refer to the Pyomo 6.6.1 release notes. Other highlights Model Initialization A prototype API for a new approach to initializing IDAES models is now available which makes available some new techniques for initializing models. This is documented in the Initializing Models Reference Guide Modular Properties Framework Support for some transport properties Helmholtz Equation of State properties Better error checking for case where unit models are set to include phase equilibrium but the property package is set to support only a single phase Multi-Stream Contactor model: a new base model for systems involving contacting of two or more streams with mass transfer. This model is intended to be used as the foundation for models such as membrane separators, solvent extraction and other similar processes. This is documented in the Multi-Stream Contactor Reference Guide idaes/models_extra/power_generation report() methods for unit models using Helmholtz equation of state General Code Maintenance Streamlining of dependencies and creation of new optional dependency groupings to support non-core tools General linting of codebase to ensure compliance with most pylint checks Spell checking of all code and doc strings Removal of backward compatibility code for Python 2

IDAES↗

A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems

Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. In this paper, we used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

In-situ strain behavior and BISON simulations of Zircaloy cladding subjected to temperature cycling separate-effects tests in a steam environment

Understanding fuel system performance during anticipated transients without scram (ATWSs) in boiling water reactors (BWRs) is necessary for refining current and future safety limits. High-fidelity material models and simulations are fundamental to rigorous assessment of zirconium-based cladding performance. However, experimental thermomechanical data during simulated ATWSs to validate these modes are limited. To provide relevant in-situ data, Zircaloy-4 cladding was subjected to cyclic heating in a steam environment to simulate an out-of-pile BWR ATWS. Digital image correlation was used to capture the cladding strain behavior in-situ for comparison against simulations using the BISON finite element code. Conventional high-temperature models were compared using multiple schemes to gain a better understanding of the applicability of three BISON models to BWR ATWS: (1) the default combination of creep models in BISON, (2) the high-temperature Erbacher model alone, and (3) the low-temperature Limback-Andersson model alone. The cases run with the Limback-Andersson model alone produced the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). The lowest RMSE for the Limback-Andersson model alone was 0.659%, and the highest RMSE reported was 4.22%. A data gap within the model in the temperature regime of interest was also identified, and to account for this gap, the current model in BISON is linearly interpolated between two separate datasets. In conclusion, this evaluation highlights the need to either develop a new model or to improve the existing model to capture transient creep effects resulting from a cyclic temperature transient.

Anticipated transient without SCRAM↗