Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40

Thermophysical Property Measurements: Improved Density, Viscosity and Thermal Diffusivity Methods

The technical bases and methods developed at Argonne to measure thermophysical properties of molten salt mixtures are summarized and representative results provided to show the accuracy and precision achieved. Three key measurements addressed in this report are density, viscosity and thermal diffusivity. The densities of two eutectic FLiNaK mixtures were measured at temperatures to approximately 750 °C and the results are compared with literature values. The results are used to show how the effect of salt surface tension is taken into account in the density calculation and how the surface tension for other salt mixtures is being measured. Viscosity measurements of eutectic FLiNaK are shown to illustrate improvements to the measurement method being made to address and minimize the sources of error and uncertainties in the reported values. Thermal diffusivity measurements of FLiNaK are shown to illustrate the measurement method developed at Argonne and the achieved precision. The thermal diffusivity of the graphite used to make the cells that contain the salts during analyses was measured to assess the relative contribution to the response. The improved procedures developed in this work are being applied in property measurements of other salts of interest.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Black hole spin in X-ray binaries: giving uncertainties an $\mathcal{f}$

The two established techniques for measuring black hole spin in X-ray binaries often yield conflicting results, which must be resolved before either method may be deemed robust. In practice, black hole spin measurements based on fitting the accretion disc continuum effectively do not marginalize over the colour-correction factor f col . This factor parametrizes spectral hardening of the disc continuum by the disc atmosphere, whose true properties are poorly constrained. We incorporate reasonable systematic uncertainties in f col into the eight (non-maximal) black hole spin measurements vetted by the disc continuum fitting community. In most cases, an f col uncertainty of ±0.2–0.3 dominates the black hole spin error budget. We go on to demonstrate that plausible departures in f col values from those adopted by the disc continuum fitting practitioners can bring the discrepant black hole spins into agreement with those from iron line modelling. Systematic uncertainties in f col , such as the effects of strong magnetization, should be better understood before dismissing their potentially dominant impact on the black hole spin error budget.

4U 1543–47↗

Single-shot, double-pulse determination of the detonation energy in nanosecond-laser ablation using the blast model

We demonstrate a novel single-shot method to determine the detonation energy of laser-induced plasma and investigate its performance. This approach can be used in cases where there are significant shot-to-shot variations in ablation conditions, such as laser fluctuations, target inhomogeneity, or multiple filamentation with ultrashort pulses. The Sedov blast model is used to fit two time-delayed shadowgrams measured with a double-pulse laser. We find that the reconstruction of detonation parameters is insensitive to the choice of interpulse delay in double-pulse shadowgraphy. In contrast, the initial assumption of expansion dimensionality has a large impact on the reconstructed detonation energy. The method allows for a reduction in the uncertainties of blast wave energy measurements as a diagnostic technique employed in various laser ablation applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-resolution leaf area index maps generated from unoccupied aerial system, Teller Mile 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Leaf area index (LAI), a measure of the amount of one-side leaf area per ground unit, is an important indicator of plant carbon, energy, and water cycle. In the heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, it has been challenging to accurately measure LAI across species and space needed for Earth system model validation. Here, we use multispectral unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) to scale up and map leaf area index (LAI) , in a low-Arctic tundra landscape on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We linked previous published LAI measurements with high-resolution, UAS-collected multispectral data collected over the region of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Maker 27 site in 2022 to develop random forest (RF) machine learning models to predict and map LAI. 100 RF models were developed to account for uncertainties in ground LAI plot measurements and process scaling. This dataset includes a raster (*.tif) map of the mean LAI value of the 100 RF models, a raster (*.tif) map of the standard deviation of the RF-modeled LAI data, and a user guide (*.pdf).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Burning velocities of R-32/O 2 /N 2 mixtures: Experimental measurements and development of a validated detailed chemical kinetic model

This work entails characterizing the flammability of the refrigerant R-32 (CH 2 F 2 ) by both experimental measurements and modeling. Burning velocities S u were measured using a constant-volume spherical-flame method for R-32/O2/N 2 mixtures with O 2 /N 2 ratios ranging from 21% (synthetic air) to 40%, pressures of (1 to 3) bar, and equivalence ratios $\phi$ of (0.8 to 1.3). Based on a critical assessment of available data, and extended by our own calculations, a detailed chemical kinetic model was developed and key reactions determined using reaction path and sensitivity analyses. Initiation and combustion were identified as distinct kinetic regimes and burning velocities were found to be controlled by two primary reactions: unimolecular decomposition of CH 2 F 2 → CHF + HF and the subsequent reaction, CHF + O 2 → CHFO + O, the latter reaction initiating the radical chain propagating and branching by producing O atoms. Sensitive rate constants in the kinetic model were critically adjusted within their uncertainties and current knowledge bounds to best fit the experimental burning velocities. We found that rate constants in the model could be adjusted to match a given experimental S u for specific conditions (O 2 loading, P, T, $\phi$). This, however, then fixes predicted burning velocities for other all conditions within (3 to 4)% if physically realistic rate parameters are maintained. Thus, the entire set of experimental data is fit, not just to particular conditions. Relative random uncertainties in the experimental Su measurements were (4 to 6)%, but assumptions made for thermal radiation lost by the burned gas in the spherical-flame experiments add an additional systematic uncertainty. Systematic differences between the limiting cases of adiabatic (no thermal radiation lost) and optically-thin (all thermal radiation lost) varied significantly with conditions and ranged from (4 to 30)% at high to low velocities, respectively, translating into uncertainties of (2 to 15)% considering the average of two limiting cases. Comparison of experimental and kinetically modeled Su values suggests that the burned gas tends towards the optically-thin limit at the lowest pressures and fuel loadings and toward the adiabatic limit at the highest pressures and loadings. We tested and found support for this conclusion with a detailed analysis as a function of all the conditions (T, P, % O 2 , $\phi$). This behavior appears to transition from optically-thin to adiabatic as the density of the initial fuel increases, which results in increased CO 2 in the burned gas and thus increased absorption of the thermal radiation (consistent with the Beer-Lambert Law). The validated detailed model based on evaluated kinetics is shown to accurately predict burning velocities for R-32 O 2 /N 2 mixtures over a wide range of conditions and provides a reliable basis for extrapolation to other conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Extension of SCALE/Sampler’s sensitivity analysis

Nuclear data are a major source of uncertainties in reactor physics calculations. The propagation of nuclear data uncertainties to important system responses is instrumental when determining appropriate safety margins in reactor safety analyses. It is also important to understand the major contributors to the observed uncertainties to make recommendations for further measurements and evaluations and aid in the understanding of the studied system. The SCALE code system allows for nuclear data uncertainty analysis based on the random sampling approach as implemented in SCALE’s Sampler sequence. Sampler was recently extended by a sensitivity analysis in terms of the calculation of two correlation-based sensitivity indices. This analysis allows for the identification of the top contributing nuclear reactions to any analyzed output uncertainty. This paper presents the sensitivity indices, along with their interpretation and limitations. It demonstrates the application in an eigenvalue and decay heat analysis for a boiling water reactor fuel assembly.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Measurement of the production cross section of 31 GeV/ c protons on carbon via beam attenuation in a 90-cm-long target

The production cross section of 30.92 GeV/c protons on carbon is measured by the NA61/SHINE spectrometer at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron by means of beam attenuation in a copy (replica) of the 90-cm-long target of the T2K neutrino oscillation experiment. The employed method for direct production cross-section estimation minimizes model corrections for elastic and quasielastic interactions. The obtained production cross section is $σ_{\text{prod}}$ = 227.6 ± 0.8(stat)$_{\text{-3.2}}^{\text{+1.9}}$(sys) – 0.8(mod) mb. It is in agreement with previous NA61/SHINE results obtained with a thin carbon target, while providing improved precision with a total fractional uncertainty of less than 2%. This direct measurement will reduce the uncertainty of the T2K neutrino flux prediction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications (Full Report)

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was developed to address the pressing need for faster, more reliable, and more adaptable scientific discovery. Traditional experimentation is limited by manual labor, long cycle times, and fragmented data streams, which constrain the ability to explore complex chemical and materials design spaces. To overcome these limitations, we created an integrated, modular platform that combines laboratory robotics, diverse measurement instruments, and a central data infrastructure with artificial intelligence–driven decision-making. The system links liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and optical plate readers into a closed loop where experiments are executed automatically, data is analyzed in real time, and subsequent experimental conditions are adaptively chosen to maximize information gain. Over the course of the project, MARS was validated on two primary test cases—spectroscopic metal–ligand binding assays and peptide-directed mineralization—which highlighted the system’s ability to handle uncertainty and variability in experimental measurements. To further demonstrate modularity and extensibility, we also established additional testbeds in electrochemistry for catalyst discovery and electrolyte formulation for advanced batteries. The results show that MARS can reliably conduct autonomous campaigns with minimal human intervention, adapt to distinct scientific domains, and provide a scalable model for future self-driving laboratories. This work establishes new capabilities for modular, uncertainty-aware automation and directly supports the need for advanced, data-driven research platforms capable of accelerating discovery across a wide range of scientific and national security missions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A precise measurement of the Z -boson double-differential transverse momentum and rapidity distributions in the full phase space of the decay leptons with the ATLAS experiment at $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV

This paper presents for the first time a precise measurement of the production properties of the Z boson in the full phase space of the decay leptons. This is in contrast to the many previous precise unfolded measurements per formed in the fiducial phase space of the decay leptons. The measurement is obtained from proton–proton collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment in 2012 at $\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.2 fb -1 . The results, based on a total of 15.3 million Z boson decays to electron and muon pairs, extend and improve a previous measurement of the full set of angular coefficients describing Z-boson decay. The double-differential cross section distributions in Z-boson transverse momentum pT and rapidity y are measured in the pole region, defined as 80 < m ℓℓ < 100 GeV, over the range |y| < 3.6. The total uncertainty of the normalised cross-section measurements in the peak region of the pT distribution is dominated by statistical uncertainties over the full range and increases as a function of rapidity from 0.5–1.0% for |y| < 2.0 to 2 - 7% at higher rapidities. The results for the rapidity-dependent transverse momentum distributions are compared to state of-the-art QCD predictions, which combine in the best cases approximate N 4 LL resummation with N 3 LO fixed-order per turbative calculations. The differential rapidity distributions integrated over pT are even more precise, with accuracies from 0.2–0.3% for |y| < 2.0 to 0.4–0.9% at higher rapidities, and are compared to fixed-order QCD predictions using the most recent parton distribution functions. The agreement between data and predictions is quite good in most cases.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Three-point shear correlations and mass aperture moments

We present high signal-to-noise measurements of three-point shear correlations and the third moment of the mass aperture statistic using the first 3 years of data from the Dark Energy Survey. We additionally obtain the first measurements of the configuration and scale dependence of the four three-point shear correlations which carry cosmological information. With the third-order mass aperture statistic, we present tomographic measurements over angular scales of 4 to 60 arcminutes with a combined statistical significance of 15.0 σ . Using the tomographic information and measuring also the second-order mass aperture, we additionally obtain a skewness parameter and its redshift evolution. We find that the amplitudes and scale-dependence of these shear 3pt functions are in qualitative agreement with measurements in a mock galaxy catalog based on N-body simulations, indicating promise for including them in future cosmological analyses. We validate our measurements by showing that B-modes, parity-violating contributions and PSF modeling uncertainties are negligible, and determine that the measured signals are likely to be of astrophysical and gravitational origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of the anomalous spin precession frequency $\omega_\alpha$ in the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab aims to measure the muon magnetic moment anomaly, $a_{\mu} = (g-2)/2$, with a final accuracy of 0.14 parts per million (ppm). A $3.1$-GeV muon beam is injected into a storage ring of $14\,$m diameter, in the presence of a $1.45\,$T magnetic field. The anomaly $a_\mu$ can be extracted by accurately measuring the anomalous muon spin precession frequency $\omega_a$, based on the arrival time distribution of decay positrons observed by $24$ calorimeters, and the magnetic field. In 2023, the experiment published its second result based on the two datasets Run-2 and Run-3, reaching the unprecedented sensitivity of $0.21\,$ppm --- a factor $\sim2.2$ improvement since its first result published in 2021, based on the first dataset (Run-1). In this paper, we will focus on the measurement of the $\omega_a$ frequency, describing the techniques and major sources of systematic uncertainty in the 2023 publication, and outlining the improvements since the 2021 result. We will also cover the status of the ongoing $\omega_a$ analysis for the last three datasets, collected from 2020 to 2023, along with the projected uncertainties on the final Muon $g-2$ measurement at Fermilab.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the branching ratio of 16 N , 15 C , 12 B , and 13 B isotopes through the nuclear muon capture reaction in the Super-Kamiokande detector

The Super-Kamiokande detector has measured solar neutrinos for more than 25 years. The sensitivity for solar neutrino measurement is limited by the uncertainties of energy scale and background modeling. Decays of unstable isotopes with relatively long half-lives through nuclear muon capture, such as 16 N, 15 C, 12 B, and 13 B, are detected as background events for solar neutrino observations. Here, in this study, we developed a method to form a pair of stopping muon and decay candidate events and evaluated the production rates of such unstable isotopes. We then measured their branching ratios considering both their production rates and the estimated number of nuclear muon capture processes as Br⁡( 16 N) = (9.0 ± 0.1)%, Br⁡( 15 C) = (0.6 ± 0.1)%, Br⁡( 12 B) = (0.98 ± 0.18)%, Br⁡( 13 B) = (0.14 ± 0.12)%, respectively. The result for 16 N has world-leading precision at present and the results for 15 C, 12 B, and 13 B are the first branching ratio measurements for those isotopes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Numerical investigation of mixing and heat transfer in a 7.9 m JP-8 pool fire

The response of objects engulfed in, and adjacent to, large-scale pool fires is of interest in accident and safety assessments. In this study, Fuego, a low-Mach turbulent reacting flow code was used to study conjugate heat transfer in a 7.9 m diameter JP-8 pool fire. Simulations were designed to replicate past experimental measurements (Blanchat et al., 2006) of incident heat flux to three cylindrical calorimeters in and around the pool fire. Two turbulent combustion models were compared directly - the eddy dissipation concept and a more recently developed unsteady flamelet model. First and second order spatial and temporal discretization schemes were also compared to assess the performance of low-dissipation numerical operators. Heat flux predictions to the transportation size calorimeter outside the fire were within experimental uncertainties. Inside the fire, experimental measurements were higher than predicted values and may have been a consequence of soot deposition and augmented participating media radiation from soot and fuel vapor. Simulation predictions improved in cases where turbulent kinetic energy and mixing were more resolved. This work, and others referenced herein, suggest that spatial resolution on the order of 0.5–1.0 cm may be required to fully resolve fluid instabilities, vortex production between fire plumes and crosswind, soot production, and fuel-air mixing. This presents a substantial computational challenge for safety assessments of engulfed objects in fully turbulent pool fires.

Conjugate heat transfer↗

Updating and Refining BISON TRISO Assessment

Several advanced reactor concepts consider tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel in their designs. To support the advanced reactor industry, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing modeling and simulation capabilities within the BISON fuel performance code. Assessment of these capabilities against available experi- mental data, such as the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program, is essential in instilling confidence in the code predictions. Associated uncertainties in model inadequacy, experimental measurements, and manufacturing are also of importance. This report discusses the updating and standardization of the existing assessment suite in BISON for TRISO fuel performance analysis. The cases considered the AGR-1, AGR-2, and AGR-3/4 experimental programs. The report also includes a preliminary investigation into the sources of model inadequacy associated with silver (Ag) release fractions using the AGR-2 Compact 2-1-2 as a case study. The results indicate that uncertainties in the operating temperatures supplied to the model and the form of those temperature conditions (spatially averaged versus spatially resolved) both affect Ag release predictions. This suggests that previously observed model inadequacy can be attributed to both physical models and the operating conditions supplied to them. These findings will be leveraged to guide development of assessment cases for additional experiments and refinement of physical models for behaviors that potentially influence Ag release, such as palladium penetration.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Uncertainty evaluation in reference material characterization by double isotope dilution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ID-ICP-MS)

Double isotope dilution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ID-ICP-MS) is one of the most important measurement methods in the establishment of measurement standards for inorganic analysis. However, there is still no good consensus on approaches for uncertainty evaluation in double ID-ICP-MS. Particularly, approaches to treating the instrumental isotopic fractionation (IIF) phenomenon and correlation between uncertainty sources are diverse and often unclear in the literature. Here, an approach for uncertainty evaluation in double ID-ICP-MS measurements is described. Using three certified reference materials (CRMs), it is shown that the IIF effects cancel out and should not be included in the uncertainty budget. Further, a consistent way of considering correlated sources of uncertainty to prevent double counting of uncertainties is described in detail along with an example of measuring the mass fraction of magnesium in an oyster powder CRM.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Executive summary of error sources in dynamic surface temperature measurements

Obtaining bulk T requires measuring apparent sample interface T surface , knowledge of any window conditions T window , and knowledge of thermal transport from the sample to the window. To obtain bulk T with uncertainties below 5% requires relatively small uncertainties in each of these areas, and large uncertainties in one area require smaller uncertainties in others to maintain the error budget. For example, if T window is known to 10%, a 5% total uncertainty can be obtained if T surface is known to 1% and combined transport uncertainties are known to 20%. If T surface can only be measured to 2%, combined transport uncertainties must be 17% to reach the same overall uncertainty. As the form of transport is unknown at high pressure, and window temperatures are difficult to measure by their very nature, reducing surface T uncertainties is the practical first step. Here we will discuss various error sources in the measurement of apparent T surface , and which ones must be correctly obtained prior to the experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗