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Dynamic defense and network randomization for computer systems

The various technologies presented herein relate to determining a network attack is taking place, and further to adjust one or more network parameters such that the network becomes dynamically configured. A plurality of machine learning algorithms are configured to recognize an active attack pattern. Notification of the attack can be generated, and knowledge gained from the detected attack pattern can be utilized to improve the knowledge of the algorithms to detect a subsequent attack vector(s). Further, network settings and application communications can be dynamically randomized, wherein artificial diversity converts control systems into moving targets that help mitigate the early reconnaissance stages of an attack. An attack(s) based upon a known static address(es) of a critical infrastructure network device(s) can be mitigated by the dynamic randomization. Network parameters that can be randomized include IP addresses, application port numbers, paths data packets navigate through the network, application randomization, etc.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Subtask 1.4 - Techno-Economic Assessment of Regional Carbon Utilization Scenarios and Attendant Monitoring Technology

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Program seeks to develop technologies to significantly improve the effectiveness of carbon capture and storage (CCS), reduce the cost of implementation, and support the readiness of widespread commercial deployment by 2035. To accomplish this goal, technical and economic barriers must be addressed and the results used to inform regulators and industry on the safety, permanence, and viability of carbon storage. To help overcome these barriers, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted three activities: 1) investigate the regional techno-economic life cycle of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in North Dakota, 2) assist DOE in determining the prospective CO2 storage resource of residual oil zones (ROZs), and 3) develop a seismic technique for monitoring geologic storage of CO2. These three activities address two strategic goals enumerated in the DOE–EERC Cooperative Agreement, namely, 1) to advance foundational science and 2) to inform data-driven policies that enhance U.S. economic growth and job creation, energy security, and environmental quality. Activity 1 In North Dakota, there is synergistic incentive to develop and implement CO2 EOR technologies. Regional industry partners are actively seeking options that can cost-effectively improve the efficiency of power production, while also coproducing CO2 for use in EOR applications. A full-value-chain techno-economic assessment that links lignite resources, power generation, and EOR is needed to determine the implications for a state or region to continue to use these resources or look elsewhere for other energy sources and revenue streams. The integration of North Dakota’s lignite power industry with the state’s oil industry has the potential to revitalize legacy oil fields and produce up to 1 billion barrels of additional oil using CO2 EOR while providing a market for a CO2 commodity captured at coal-fired power plants. Revitalization of North Dakota’s legacy oil fields will bring new industry investment to the state, resulting in the growth of oil-related jobs and revenue through oil sales, severance tax, and associated oilfield development activities (drilling, pipelines, etc.). CO2 demand for EOR and incremental oil production were calculated for 201 conventional oil fields in North Dakota. Infrastructure development in the fields was estimated using 1) a traditional vertical well arrangement of CO2 injectors and oil producers and 2) an advanced case where horizontal wells were used exclusively. Pipeline, compression, and recycling infrastructure requirements were also estimated. When viewed from the CO2 capture and CO2 EOR sectors, the advanced case showed a positive investment scenario when including potential benefits of the 45Q tax credit policy. An economic evaluation of a full implementation of CO2 EOR showed an average $60 billion potential state economic impact estimated over the 37-year construction and production time frame could be realized with an assumed oil price of $65/bbl. Oil price ranges of $35–$90/bbl cause an estimated variation of ±$5 billion over the potential effort. The total net state government revenues were estimated over the 37-year construction and production time frame. With an assumed oil price of $65/bbl, total potential fiscal impact could average $7.4 billion. This result ranges about ±$2.5 billion for a potential EOR implementation effort for oil price ranges of $35–$90/bbl. This broad-brush assessment was focused on “magnitude-of-effect” perspectives of what CO2 capture and use for EOR could mean to the state. Whether CO2 EOR ever becomes widely adopted is not the issue at this stage of evaluation. The question being answered is, How valuable could CO2 capture and CO2 EOR be for the state and local jurisdictions in western North Dakota? The results of the current economic assessment remove any ambiguity to that question. Full implementation of CO2 EOR as modeled in this study provides substantial economic benefits to the state, even at low oil prices (i.e., $35/bbl). Job creation and government revenues could be substantial, depending on the scale of implementation. With a better understanding of what CO2 EOR might mean for the state’s economy, the focus can now shift to the policies and financial mechanisms needed to make private investment in CO2 capture and use as EOR competitive with other energy-related pursuits. Activity 2 ROZs contain remnants of oil not swept away by natural waterflooding. Although nearly all of the identified ROZs are found in West Texas, there is evidence that this category of oil reservoir can be found in other major oil-producing basins of the United States. Because the formation of these oil reservoirs is distinct from other conventional reservoirs, the method to estimate the prospective CO2 storage resource in ROZs may be equally distinct from the method used for conventional fields. As such, the EERC collaborated with DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to investigate the feasibility of CO2 storage in ROZs and determine what specific modification (if any) needs to be made to the current DOE volumetric method to estimate prospective CO2 storage resource in oil reservoirs. This activity built on a previous EERC investigation to identify ROZs in the Williston and Powder River Basins and upon collaborations between the EERC and NETL to develop storage resource estimation methods for different types of geologic CO2 storage. Review of the volumetric approach raised questions about the applicability of such an approach to hydrocarbon-bearing zones without the inclusion of potential hydrocarbon production. A production-based approach was presented by the EERC to inform the working group of additional methods of increasing the CO2 storage resource potential. Because the production-based method focuses more heavily on oil recovery than CO2 storage, it was not included in the working group manuscript. Activity 3 The EERC has used sparse and irregular seismic arrays to detect CO2 injected into a reservoir. The variability of seismic noise recorded by the sensors directly impacts the seismic interpretation. However, designing noise attenuation workflows effectively can be a more challenging task using sparse and irregular arrays for data acquisition. Based on the hypothesis that noncoherent noise is stationary during weekly data acquisition, a new machine-learning algorithm was developed to automatically estimate noise conditions using passive records, noise from active records, and ancillary information. The new noise attenuation processing workflow can improve the time-lapse detection of CO2 from sparse and irregular array acquisitions. Results show spatial and temporal noise patterns can be related to the location of the sensors and the weather conditions during the data acquisition and that our attenuation processing workflow can improve the time-lapse detection of CO2 from sparse and irregular array acquisitions. This effort was funded in part through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Department of Commerce.

Peck, Wesly↗

Muon Monitor Data To Maintain The Quality Of The NuMI Neutrino Beam at Fermilab

The NuMI-AIP has been proposed to upgrade the NuMI target system for a 1-MW operation. The facility produces an intense muon neutrino beam by using a high power pion production target and a focusing magnetic horns for long baseline neutrino experiment. A muon monitor which measures muon beam profile, is a key beam element to maintain the quality of muon neutrino beam. The system will be upgraded for the high beam power operation. We studied the response of muon monitors with the proton beam power, proton beam position on the target, and focusing strength of the horn. The results were evaluated for future operations. The response function needs to be modeled by using Machine Learning algorithms which will be implemented into a muon monitor signal analyzer. The new analyzer will forecast the neutrino beam quality and control the beam position on the target if needed. Upgrading the helium gas handling system is the other key to improve the stability of the muon monitor signal. We will present the status of the upgrade plan.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

LeptonJet Categorization with Decision Tree

With much evidence for dark matter arising from astronomical observations, particle physics has also begun to look for dark matter candidates. Here, a boosted decision tree machine learning algorithm (BDT) is used to distinguish signal from background in a search for self-interacting dark matter at CMS with two different final states of signal. The signal final states are two displaced collimated pairs of leptons (leptonJets). In this project, possible improvements to the BDT are explored. Various methods of signal separation are studied, as well as various accuracy metrics to study and compare the different models. Through the separated models and improvements in training, a slight increase in accuracy score was obtained (0.01% on electrons, 0.46% on muons). Additionally, the separated models were able to recognize a significantly increased percentage of signal, particularly against the electron signal. Separated models are being considered as part of the larger an alysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Direction-optimizing Label Propagation and its Application for Community Detection

Label Propagation is a machine learning algorithm typically used for classification. It has also been found to be an effective method for detecting communities in networks. It has two attractive features as a community detection method: it has nearly linear runtime and it requires no \textit{a priori} community information. We propose a new Direction Optimizing Label Propagation Algorithm (DOLPA) that relies on the use of {\em frontiers} and alternates between label {\em push} and label {\em pull} operations to enhance the performance of LPA. Specifically, DOLPA has parameters for tuning the processing order of vertices in a graph. This reduces the number of edges visited and improves the quality of solution. We apply DOLPA to community detection and present the design and implementation of the algorithm as well as its shared-memory parallelization using OpenMP. Empirically, we evaluate our algorithm using synthetic graphs as well as real-world networks. Compared with the state-of-art \textit{Parallel Label Propagation} algorithm, we achieve at least two times the F-Score while reducing the runtime by 50\% for synthetic graphs with overlapping communities. We also compare DOLPA against the state-of-art parallel implementation of the Louvain method using the same graphs and show that DOLPA achieves about three times the F-Score at 10\% the runtime. On real-world graphs, we get a speedup of up to $10\times$ using 64 threads.

Liu, X↗

Domain adaptation techniques for improved cross-domain study of galaxy mergers

In astronomy, neural networks are often trained on simulated data with the prospect of being applied to real observations. Unfortunately, simply training a deep neural network on images from one domain does not guarantee satisfactory performance on new images from a different domain. The ability to share cross-domain knowledge is the main advantage of modern deep domain adaptation techniques. Here we demonstrate the use of two techniques - Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and adversarial training with Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) - for the classification of distant galaxy mergers from the Illustris-1 simulation, where the two domains presented differ only due to inclusion of observational noise. We show how the addition of either MMD or adversarial training greatly improves the performance of the classifier on the target domain when compared to conventional machine learning algorithms, thereby demonstrating great promise for their use in astronomy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Using Machine Learning to Track Objects Across Cameras

Video surveillance is one of the most important technologies used by the International Atomic Energy Agency in international safeguards. At large, complicated facilities, multiple surveillance cameras are deployed to monitor the transfer of safeguards-relevant objects across the site. During inspections, all surveillance videos are reviewed to ensure the objects are not manipulated or diverted during transfer, a laborious, time-consuming task. This work describes using deep machine learning algorithms to track objects automatically across multiple cameras, greatly improving the efficiency of the review process. The fundamental problem in this object tracking task across multiple cameras is how to associate the same object, which may show extreme intra-class variations, such as viewpoints, occlusions, and various scales, in different and even non-overlapped cameras. Object re-identification (Re-ID) in nuclear facility video surveillance is even more challenging than classic person or vehicle Re-ID problems because different instances in the same category may display an identical appearance. One observation from nuclear facility surveillance videos is that all objects must be carted (e.g., via forklift) to move. Therefore, the spatial context information of an object, which provides the feature from the carrier, is critical for the object Re-ID task. This work proposes a two-stream convolutional neural networks model that takes features of objects and their surrounding regions into account. Moreover, the custom videos usually are gleaned from different scenes from the training data, which may have extreme variations in illumination changes and/or cluttered backgrounds. Directly applying the trained model to custom videos will dramatically decrease the performance. To tackle this problem, an advanced domain adaptation technique is proposed to mitigate the gap between the data taken from different scenes. The proposed framework will track objects of interest across a nuclear complex. The resulting tracks can be used in further analyses, such as event/activity recognition, anomaly detection, etc.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Deep Learning Prediction of Interspecies Interactions from Self-organized Spatiotemporal Patterns of Co-evolving Organisms

Microorganisms colonizing natural habits such as soils co-evolve to form specific spatial patterns through interspecies interactions. These self-organized patterns are a key ecological phenotype, which provides critical information on their interaction mechanisms. However, conventional network inference techniques that analyze species population data in bulk have yet to be extended to account for such spatial heterogeneity. Here we proposed supervised deep learning as a new network inference tool for predicting interspecies interactions from spatiotemporal patterns of microbial evolution. Due to lack of biological imaging data that can be used for training deep learning networks, we used in silico data generated from high-fidelity agent-based models to determine model structure and parameters. Even though networks were trained under simple configurations where interaction coefficients are assumed to be spatially invariant, we demonstrated that the resulting model can be utilized to successfully predict spatial variation of interactions in more complex domains (i.e., configured with a context-dependent mixture of interaction coefficients) as well as in simple domains without further training. In the further test against real biological data obtained through imaging experiments of a binary consortium (Pseudomonas fluorescens and a mutant of Escherichia coli), our model also predicted the dramatic shifts in interactions of the two organisms across different environmental contexts. Through various successful demonstrations in this work, the combined use of the agent-based model and machine learning algorithm provides a means to use new type of data - microscopic images - for extracting microbial interactions, therefore presenting itself as a useful tool for the analysis of more complex microbial community interactions.

Lee, Joon-Yong↗

Application-driven Privacy-preserving Data Publishing with Correlated Attributes

Recent advances in computing have allowed for the possibility to collect large amounts of data on personal activities and private living spaces. To address the privacy concerns of users in this environment, we propose a novel framework called PR-GAN that offers privacy-preserving mechanism using generative adversarial networks. Given a target application, PR-GAN automatically modifies the data to hide sensitive attributes - which may be hidden and can be inferred by machine learning algorithms - while preserving the data utility in the target application. Unlike prior works, the public's possible knowledge of the correlation between the target application and sensitive attributes is built into our modeling. We formulate our problem as an optimization problem, show that an optimal solution exists and use generative adversarial networks (GAN) to create perturbations. We further show that our method provides privacy guarantees under the Pufferfish framework, an elegant generalization of the differential privacy that allows for the modeling of prior knowledge on data and correlations. Through experiments, we show that our method outperforms conventional methods in effectively hiding the sensitive attributes while guaranteeing high performance in the target application, for both property inference and training purposes. Finally, we demonstrate through further experiments that once our model learns a privacy-preserving task, such as hiding subjects' identity, on a group of individuals, it can perform the same task on a separate group with minimal performance drops.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Universal image representation based on a multimodal graph

A system for classifying a target image with segments having attributes is provided. The system generates a graph for the target image that includes vertices representing segments of the image and edges representing relationships between the connected vertices. For each vertex, the system generates a subgraph that includes the vertex as a home vertex and neighboring vertices representing segments of the target image within a neighborhood of the segment represented by the home vertex. The system applies an autoencoder to each subgraph to generate latent variables to represent the subgraph. The system applies a machine learning algorithm to a feature vector comprising a universal image representation of the target image that is derived from the generated latent variables of the subgraphs to generate a classification for the target image.

Bremer, Peer-Timo↗

Investigating Fission Reaction Rate Ratio Sensitivities [Abstract]

Reaction rate ratios are a measurable parameter for reactor and criticality applications. A number of foil irradiations and fission chamber measurements have been performed for critical assemblies at Los Alamos National Laboratory starting in the 1950’s including (i) Godiva, a bare HEU spherical assembly; (ii) Flattop-25, a spherical assembly consisting of an HEU core and a natural uranium reflector; (iii) Jezebel, a bare 239 Pu assembly; and (iv) Flattop-Pu, a spherical assembly consisting of a 239Pu core and a natural uranium reflector. Fission ratio data for 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f), 237 Np(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f), 233 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) and 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) were obtained and reported. The EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) aims to constrain nuclear data by using a suite of measurement types beyond k-effective. Recent investigations include the use of pulsed spheres for nuclear data validation and other measurement methods of interest. One focus of the work is to determine if other methods are complimentary to the critical experiments utilized for nuclear data validation. It is anticipated the investigations will help inform methods that may be utilized in machine learning algorithms for nuclear validation. In order to use a measurement type for nuclear validation, it is necessary to obtain cross-section sensitivities for parameters. This work looks at reaction rate ratio sensitivities with SENSMG and Monte Carlo N-Particle R Code Version 6.21.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

OPERATIONAL TECHNOLOGY BEHAVIORAL ANALYTICS (OTBA) – A DATA-CENTRIC APPROACH FOR REDUCING CYBERSECURITY RISK

This paper provides a summary of the methodology, findings, lessons learned, and insights from an investigation into the feasibility of the Operational Technology Behavioral Analytics (OTBA) cybersecurity approach. The concept was evaluated with data from the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) – a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded facility that is managed and operated by Southern Company at Alabama Power’s E. C. Gaston generating power plant in Wilsonville, Alabama. Appropriate data sources for the post-combustion carbon capture system were identified. Infrastructure was deployed to monitor, capture and archive data for the system. Critical parameters for each subsystem were identified and analyzed. Machine-learning algorithms were used to establish and characterize normal operations and subsequently identify anomalies. This effort yielded valuable insights and formed the basis of a data-centric strategy for detecting cyber-attacks along with a coordinated response philosophy. A significant takeaway is that the OTBA cybersecurity approach is quite portable; it can be applied to other critical infrastructure beyond fossil power generation.

Black, Clifton↗

Dimensionless parameters to categorize the failure modes of ductile plate perforation

In this work, two dimensionless parameters were derived organically from impact mechanics equations to remove the need for empirical constants. These two dimensionless parameters effectively collapse the ballistic performance of ductile metal plates along two distinct loci, depending on the projectile geometry and the corresponding failure mode. Projectiles that initiate ductile hole enlargement via cavity expansion fall along a linear curve, while shear-plugging failure modes tend to fall along a cubic curve. Results were demonstrated for various projectiles of different calibers impacting aluminum and Ti-6Al-4V alloys. The main advantage of the approach in this work is to drastically reduce the number of features for input into machine learning algorithms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dimensionless parameters to categorize the failure modes of ductile plate perforation

In this work, two dimensionless parameters were derived organically from impact mechanics equations to remove the need for empirical constants. These two dimensionless parameters effectively collapse the ballistic performance of ductile metal plates along two distinct loci, depending on the projectile geometry and the corresponding failure mode. Projectiles that initiate ductile hole enlargement via cavity expansion fall along a linear curve, while shear-plugging failure modes tend to fall along a cubic curve. Results were demonstrated for various projectiles of different calibers impacting aluminum and Ti-6Al-4V alloys, and further explored for more complex target combinations. The main advantage of the approach in this work is to drastically reduce the number of features for input into machine learning algorithms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

GOOML - Finding Optimization Opportunities for Geothermal Operations: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach. We have used this framework to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with an operational environment to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management for real world applications. The GOOML modeling software is built on a generic component-based systems framework that allows for both historical and forecast analysis. A GOOML model can perform historical data-assimilation using first-principal thermodynamics to create a meaningful data model. Historical production data can then be coupled with a forecast framework to train machine-learning models of steamfield components to predict future outputs. This modeling environment enables digital exploration of steamfield design configurations and operational scenarios. GOOML digital twins have been developed for steamfields in New Zealand and the United States representing differing power generation and field conditions. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Reinforcement learning experiments were conducted to demonstrate the ability to programmatically explore the operations space using machine learning agents. Our initial results are compelling; two to five percent increases in annual energy production were demonstrated by the GOOML models with no additional infrastructure build required. GOOML offers a new approach to geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and interaction with digital twins. Through application of these tools, operators will realize greater availability and higher net generation which will increase the cost effectiveness of geothermal energy projects.

access↗

Wind Turbine Drivetrain Reliability Research - Gearbox Bearing Axial Cracking Failure Mode Example

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory have been conducting wind turbine drivetrain (formerly gearbox) reliability research for many years. Although the drivetrain focus has not changed, detailed projects are adjusted every few years based on dynamic needs seen in the field across the wind industry. This webinar will walk through the research methodology by using wind turbine gearbox bearing axial cracking failure mode as an example. The detailed steps include: 1) top failure mode identification based on actual failure data collected from project partners, 2) bench-top testing to identify possible contributing factors and formulate a damage metric, 3) physics domain modeling and validation through testing, 4) reliability assessment and prognosis based on the physics domain model and data domain inputs, and further enhancement through machine learning algorithms, using actual wind plant operational and failure event data. Hopefully, the presented work is of interest to the IISE community, and some members can apply their expertise to wind turbine and plant applications, helping enhance wind power generation technology advancement and its broader deployment.

axial cracking↗

Adaptive Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗