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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enzymes as parts in need of replacement - and how to extend their working life

Enzymes catalyze reactions in vivo at different rates and each enzyme molecule has a lifetime limit before it is degraded and replaced to enable catalysis to continue. Considering these rates together as a unitless ratio of catalytic cycles until replacement (CCR) provides a new quantitative tool to assess the replacement schedule of and energy investment into enzymes as they relate to function. Here, we outline the challenges of determining CCRs and new approaches to overcome them and then assess the CCRs of selected enzymes in bacteria and plants to reveal a range of seven orders of magnitude for this ratio. Modifying CCRs in plants holds promise to lower cellular costs, to tailor enzymes for particular environments, and to breed enzyme improvements for crop productivity.

Catalytic rate↗
DOE OSTI2025

Poor reliability of public charging stations can impede the growth of the electric vehicle market

How does the reliability of public charging infrastructure affect electric vehicle (EV) adoption? Substantial public and private investments are expanding EV charging networks, but concerns are growing about the poor reliability of existing chargers and its potential impacts on EV adoption. Using data from a nationwide survey, we employ a choice model to quantify the effects of perceived charging reliability on Americans’ intentions to purchase new or used EVs. By randomly assigning participants to receive information characterizing public charging as either very reliable or very unreliable, we show a causal effect of reliability perceptions on EV purchase intentions. In conclusion, we find that differences in perceived reliability are equivalent to changing price by 32 % of purchasing budget or changing range by 366 miles, underscoring the importance of reliable public charging.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synergies between repositioning and charging strategies for shared autonomous electric vehicle fleets

The emergence of on-demand shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) service requires careful charging station planning and a joint charging and repositioning strategy to mitigate empty travel. This study couples charging and repositioning events as a means of improving service quality (rider wait times), reducing empty travel due to repositioning or charging, and improving fleet utilization (average daily trips per vehicle and charging queues). This synergy is explored for the Austin, Texas region using POLARIS, an agent-based model. On average, wait times were 39% lower, and average daily trips served per SAEV increased up to 6.4 (or 28%) compared to SAEV repositioning with heuristic charging. Coupling repositioning with charging decreased the fleet's percent empty travel on average by 1.6%, relative to the scenario treating them as independent events (which varies by charging station design). Sparser charging stations reduce investment costs, and operators can leverage this framework to keep traveler wait times low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems

Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven method for electric vehicle charging demand analysis: Case study in Virginia

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. will be accelerated by the historic $7.5 billion public investments in EV charging infrastructure. Careful analysis of EV charging demands plays a vital role in understanding the energy requirements, power grid impact, and smart charging management opportunities of EVs. To this end, this paper develops a data-driven trip-chaining-based modeling framework including five steps: Trip data acquisition and preprocessing, EV adoption modeling, travel itinerary synthesis, EV charging demand simulation and EV load profile generation. The developed analysis framework was demonstrated using real-world data for one region in Virginia, U.S. The results show that the proposed modeling framework can work effectively. For the study region in 2040, the predicted number of plug-in EVs is 470,114, resulting in a weekly charging demand of 38,078,127 kWh (55% home, 9% work, and 36% public) in September and 45,920,358 kWh (61% home, 9% work, and 30% public) in February.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Truck platooning in the U.S. national road network: A system-level modeling approach

Truck platooning enables a group of trucks to move close together, which helps reduce truck fuel use and increase effective road capacity. In this paper, a system-level equilibrium model is developed to characterize spontaneous truck platooning with coexistence of non-platooning vehicles in a network, by explicitly accounting for the interlocking relationship among platoon formation time, truck fuel saving, and increase in effective road capacity. To equilibrate the relationships, an algorithm is proposed which involves a diagonalization approach and a bush based algorithm to solve decomposed subproblems. The condition of proportionality is imposed to obtain unique traffic flows for each class of vehicles on road links. In addition, a spatially constrained multivariate clustering technique is employed to construct origin/destination zones that are smaller than the coarse Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) zones, while maintaining reasonable computational burden for network traffic assignment. Model implementation in the U.S. shows that platooning could lead to 7.9% fuel saving among platoonable trucks in 2025 and a comparable increase in effective capacity of platoonable road links, which would account for 60% of rural interstate roads. The fuel saving and road capacity improvement translate into an annual cost reduction of $\$$868 million for the U.S. intercity trucking sector and reduced road infrastructure investment needs worth $\$$4.8 billion. Extensive sensitivity analysis further reveals that fuel saving of platoonable trucks increases with platoon size but decreases with inter-truck distance in a platoon. Fuel saving potential suggests that priority should be given to rural rather than urban roads in deploying platooning technologies. As we expected, greater market penetration of platooning technologies means higher fuel saving and greater increase in effective road capacity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate prognosis of battery advanced state of health via transformers

De-risking energy storage investments necessary to meet CO 2 reduction targets requires a deep understanding of the connections between battery health, design, and use. The historical definition of the battery state of health (SOH) as the percentage of current versus initial capacity is inadequate for this purpose, motivating an expanded SOH consisting of an interrelated set of descriptors including capacity, energy, ionic and electronic impedances, open-circuit voltages, and microstructure metrics. In this work, we introduce deep transformer networks for the simultaneous prognosis of 28 battery SOH descriptors using two cycling datasets representing six lithium-ion cathode chemistries, multiple electrolyte/anode compositions, and different charge-discharge scenarios. The accuracy of these predictions for battery life (with an unprecedented mean absolute error of 19 cycles in predicting end of life for a lithium-iron-phosphate fast-charging dataset) illustrates the promise of deep learning toward providing enhanced understanding and control of battery health.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The distributional impact of FEMA’s community rating system

Community Rating System (CRS) incentivizes investments in risk reduction above NFIP standards using discounts on insurance premiums. These discounts are cross-subsidized by increasing premiums in non-CRS communities. We examine the distribution of these subsidies and find that redistribution does occur, but the gains and losses are not economically large with 95% of households gaining or losing no more than 0.3% of household income. We also examine their relationship with other community characteristics and find that the strongest predictor of premium reductions is the underlying flood risk level within the community. Thus, CRS appears to reduce the cost of living in the riskier communities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Funding a Just Transition Away from Coal in the U.S. Considering Avoided Damage from Air Pollution

Abstract Coal is declining in the U.S. as part of the clean energy transition, resulting in remarkable air pollution benefits for the American public and significant costs for the industry. Using the AP3 integrated assessment model, we estimate that fewer emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and primary fine particulate matter driven by coal’s decline led to $300 billion in benefits from 2014 to 2019. Conversely, we find that job losses driven by less coal plant and mining activity resulted in $7.84 billion in foregone wages over the same timeframe. While the benefits were greatly distributed (mostly throughout the East), costs were highly concentrated in coal communities. Transferring a small fraction of the benefits to workers could cover these costs while maintaining societal net benefits. Forecasting coal fleet damages from 2020 to 2035, we find that buying out or replacing these plants would result in $589 billion in air quality benefits, which considerably outweigh the costs. The return on investment increases when policy targets the most damaging capacity, and net benefits are maximized when removing just facilities where marginal benefits exceed marginal costs. Evaluating competitive reverse auction policy designs akin to Germany’s Coal Exit Act, we find that adjusting bids based on monetary damages rather than based only on carbon dioxide emissions – the German design – provides a welfare advantage. Our benefit–cost analyses clearly support policies that drive a swift and just transition away from coal, thereby clearing the air while supporting communities needing assistance.

Dennin, Luke R. (ORCID:0000000205405520)↗
DOE OSTI2021

10 New Insights in Climate Science 2020 - a Horizon Scan

We summarize some of the past year’s most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

PGM-Free Oxygen-Reduction Catalyst Development for Proton-Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells: Challenges, Solutions, and Promises

Proton-exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are efficient and clean hydrogen energy technologies for transportation and stationary applications. Highly active and durable low-cost cathode catalysts for the oxygen-reduction reaction (ORR) under challenging acidic environments are desperately needed to address the cost and durability issues of PEMFCs. The most promising platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts for the ORR in acidic media are atomically dispersed and nitrogen-coordinated metal site catalysts denoted as M–N–C, M = Fe, Co, or Mn. Due to significant efforts in the past few decades, these catalysts have demonstrated much-improved ORR activity and promising initial fuel cell performance approaching traditional Pt/C catalysts. However, the insufficient long-term stability (up to 5000 h) under PEMFC operation represents a primary technical barrier to making current PGM-free catalysts less viable yet in PEMFCs. In this Account, we highlight recent advances in synthesizing efficient PGM-free catalysts for the ORR in PEMFCs, emphasizing effective strategies to improve mass and intrinsic activity and the possible degradation mechanisms. In particular, a chemical doping method based on the zeolitic imidazolate framework (ZIF)-8 represents the key to developing efficient M–N–C catalysts containing atomically dispersed and nitrogen-coordinated single metal active sites (i.e., MN 4 ). The newly acquired understanding of the formation mechanism of MN 4 active sites during the thermal activation and its correlation to catalytic properties guide the rational catalyst design rather than relying on current trial-and-error approaches. Considerable efforts have further been invested in increasing the active site density and enhancing intrinsic activity by regulating carbon-phase structures and the local coordination environment. Furthermore, these highly active catalysts usually suffer from significant activity loss during the ORR. Therefore, breaking the activity–stability trade-off is the key to simultaneously achieving activity and stability in one catalyst, which is discussed on the basis of our recent successes in regulating local carbon structures surrounding active single metal sites. Significant research efforts toward understanding the degradation mechanisms and improving the lifetime of PGM-free catalysts are still crucial for viable applications in the future. Novel electrode designing strategies are needed to translate the PGM-free catalysts’ ORR activity to solid-state electrolyte-based membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) with robust three-phase (i.e., gas–liquid–solid) interfaces for efficient charge and mass transports for performance improvement. On the basis of our effort at the University at Buffalo supported by ElectroCat Consortium associated with U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office, we provide a perspective on PGM-free cathode catalysts concerning remaining bottlenecks and future opportunities, aiming to inspire the community in both mechanistic understanding and technological development.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Techno-economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Producing High-Value Chemicals and Fuels from Waste Plastic via Conventional Pyrolysis and Thermal Oxo-degradation

The rapid rise in global plastic production in recent decades has resulted in the massive generation of plastic waste. Over 75% of the plastic waste generated in the United States was sent to landfills, with a meager 8.7% recycled. Plastics are valuable feedstocks for platform chemicals and fuels. Chemical upcycling of waste high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is gaining more attention as a potentially feasible and environmentally friendly plastic waste management technology. Conventional pyrolysis (CPY) and thermal oxo-degradation (TOD) are two chemical upcycling technologies actively researched for decomposing waste HDPE into valuable chemicals and fuels. However, there are few studies on the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of these technologies for converting waste HDPE to valuable products. This study conducts a comparative TEA and LCA study of the thermochemical decomposition of waste HDPE to produce gaseous (ethylene and propylene) and liquid (naphtha, diesel, and wax) products by CPY and TOD. The study elucidates and compares the impact of hydrocracking longer chain hydrocarbons to produce more valuable products on the TEA and LCA. The TEA showed that the fixed capital investment could range from $\$32.5$ million for TOD without hydrocracking to $\$244$ million for CPY with hydrocracking scenarios. Annual revenues range from $\$28.1$ million to $\$71.5$ million in favor of scenarios with hydrocracking. However, the net present value ranges from $\$1.4$ million to $\$265.8$ million in favor of scenarios without hydrocracking. Sensitivity analysis showed that fixed capital cost, facility capacity, and product prices have the biggest impact on the process economics of the facilities, while utilities and waste transportation to refineries have the biggest impact on environmental impacts. Here, the LCA showed that primary products from scenarios without hydrocracking can be more environmentally friendly than virgin products from petroleum processes. However, TOD and CPY with hydrocracking primary products have more emissions than those of virgin products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Fungal Disease on Algal Biofuel Systems: Using Life Cycle Assessment to Compare Control Strategies

While climate change has incentivized attention on sustainable fuel sources, algae has positioned itself as a both promising and problematic biofuel feedstock. Diseases such as fungal pathogens cause costly algal feedstock crashes, but the life cycle assessments (LCAs) used to analyze the viability of algal feedstocks for biofuel have yet to consider the impact of disease on life cycle metrics. Here, we incorporate a disease model into a well-documented LCA for algal biorefineries to compare two sustainability metrics, energy return on investment (EROI) and global warming potential (GWP). We begin by showing that failure to consider disease leads to overly optimistic LCA metric outputs. Then, we compare two leading control strategies of disease chemical and biological. Our analyses show that biological engineering of a multispecies consortium of algae has a greater positive impact on LCA metrics than chemical control of the fungal pathogen using a fungicide. We expand how and when bi-cultures might advantageously exhibit the “dilution effect” whereby differentially susceptible species exhibit compensatory dynamics that stabilize feedstock production. Furthermore, our results emphasize the impact of disease and suggest that multispecies consortia of algae can be biologically engineered to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the economic viability of biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sustainable Critical Minerals: Mining, Production, and Legacy

Critical minerals (CMs) are required in renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, electronics, and national defense. Global demand has increased rapidly due to energy and digital transitions, and the United States has become increasingly reliant on vulnerable supply chains. Geological scarcity, trade barriers, environmental hurdles, and processing challenges impede domestic CM production growth. Emerging strategies, including circular economy practices and advanced sustainable mining and processing techniques, can mitigate supply chain and economic risks. To advance these approaches, consistent research priorities, policy revisions, and technology investments are required to develop a resilient CM supply. Doing so with a focus on sustainability goals can simultaneously advance domestic economic and technological goals while limiting environmental impacts and supporting global environmental goals.

biomining↗