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Surface ices in the outer solar system

Planetary volatile inventories are products of several factors: (1) condensation-accretion of pre-planetary material which determines the bulk volatile inventory; (2) energy history of a planet, including timing, causes, and mechanisms of degassing; (3) the volatile sinks, including temporary, long term, and permanent; and (4) external processes operating on the volatile inventory. Information regarding the current surface compositions provide insight into both internal and surface-atmosphere evolutionary history. Our discussion focuses upon the surface composition of outer solar system planets and satellites as determined by spacecraft and telescopic spectral observations. We provide a review and an update of the recent work by Cruikshank and Brown that includes more recent observations and interpretations. In the context of formation and evolution of solar system bodies, the interesting ices typically considered are simple molecules formed from elements having high cosmic abundances. These mainly include ices of H2O, NH3, SO2, H2S, CH4, CO, CO2, and N2. In the solid state, these ices have vibrational spectral features, analogous to their gaseous counterparts but rotational transitions are quenched, that lie in the near- and mid-infrared. The overtone and combination modes, occurring in the visible and near-IR region, are of particular importance as standard observational techniques used to identify these ices rely upon reflected solar energy. Table I summarizes the ices found on various bodies in the outer solar system. H2O is most abundant surface material in the inner and middle regions while more volatile species appear to dominate surfaces in the outermost edge of the outer solar system.

Roush, Ted L.↗

Simutaneous adsorption of CO2 and H2O under Mars-like conditions and application to the evolution of the Martian climate

The Martian regolith is the most substantial volatile reservoir on the planet; estimates of its adsorbed inventory have been based on simple measurements of the adsorption of either water or CO2 in isolation. Under some conditions, H2O can poison adsorbate surfaces, such that CO2 uptake is greatly reduced. We have made the first measurements of the simultaneous adsorption of CO2 and H2O under conditions appropriate to the Martian regolith and have found that at H2O monolayer coverage above about 0.5, CO2 begins to be displaced into the gas phase. We have developed an empirical expression that describes our co-adsorption data and have applied it to standard models of the Martian regolith. We find that currently, H2O does not substantially displace CO2, implying that the adsorbate inventories previously derived may be accurate, not more than 3-4 kPa (30-40 mbar). No substantial increase in atmospheric pressure is predicted at higher obliquities because high-latitude ground ice buffers the partial pressure of H2O in the pores, preventing high monolayer coverages of H2O from displacing CO2. The peak atmospheric pressure at high obliquity does increase as the total inventory of exchangeable CO2 increases.

Zent, Aaron P.↗

Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

Mortlock, Alan↗

Simultaneous adsorption of CO2 and H2O under Mars-like conditions and application to the evolution of the Martian climate

The Martian regolith is the most substantial volatile reservoir on the planet; estimates of its adsorbed inventory have been based on simple measurements of the adsorption of either water or CO2 in isolation. Under some conditions, H2O can poison adsorbate surfaces, such that CO2 uptake is greatly reduced. We have made the first measurements of the simultaneous adsorption of CO2 and H2O under conditions appropriate to the Martian regolith and have found that at H2O monolayer coverage above about 0.5, CO2 begins to be displaced into the gas phase. We have developed an empirical expression that describes our co-adsorption data and have applied it to standard models of the Martian regolith. We find that currently, H2O does not substantially displace CO, implying that the adsorbate inventories previously derived may be accurate, not more than 3-4 kPa (30-40 mbar). No substantial increase in atmospheric pressure is predicted at higher obliquities because high-latitude ground ice buffers the partial pressure of H2O in the pores, preventing high monolayer coverages of H2O from displacing CO2. The peak atmospheric pressure at high obliquity does increase as the total inventory of exchangeable CO2 increases.

Zent, Aaron, P.↗

BOREAS TGB-12 Soil Carbon Data over the NSA

The BOREAS TGB-12 team made measurements of soil carbon inventories, carbon concentration in soil gases, and rates of soil respiration at several sites to estimate the rates of carbon accumulation and turnover in each of the major vegetation types. TGB-12 data sets include soil properties at tower and selected auxiliary sites in the BOREAS NSA and data on the seasonal variations in the radiocarbon content of CO2 in the soil atmosphere at NSA tower sites. The sampling strategies for soils were designed to take advantage of local fire chronosequences, so that the accumulation of C in areas of moss regrowth could be determined. These data are used to calculate the inventory of C and N in moss and mineral soil layers at NSA sites and to determine the rates of input and turnover (using both accumulation since the last stand-killing fire and radiocarbon data). This data set includes physical parameters needed to determine carbon and nitrogen inventory in soils. The data were collected discontinuously from August 1993 to July 1996. The data are stored in tabular ASCII files.

Trumbore, Susan↗

Central America Regional Climate Change Program: Tools for Your Use

USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team, in partnership with EPA, NASA, Oak Ridge National Lab, and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), have had a significant impact on the region's ability to monitor, mitigate, and adapt to environmental threats. Environmental decision-making tools and data are posted on a website (SERVIR: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.pov/home.html)that provides satellite and geographic data and maps to anybody with an Internet connection. The SERVIR program has been identified as the model for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) - a major international effort to develop a 21st century system for environmental management and disaster response. In coordination with the USAID/EPA program, NASA has developed a GIs tool that enables countries to examine their forest cover and document changes on an annual basis. This information is used in calculating carbon emissions as part of greenhouse gas inventories, but also serves a valuable monitoring function. In addition, USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team in collaboration with EPA are helping countries meet their obligations as signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). EPA is assisting Central American governments to improve the quality of their greenhouse gas emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC through the development of tools and improvements in data quality. New EPA tools developed include software to automatically calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the agricultural and forestry sector inventories, determine key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and document institutional arrangements. Several of these tools are state of the art and are comparable to tools currently used in the U.S.

Irwin, Dan↗

Timber Volume and Biomass Estimates in Central Siberia from Satellite Data

Mapping of boreal forest's type, structure parameters and biomass are critical for understanding the boreal forest's significance in the carbon cycle, its response to and impact on global climate change. The biggest deficiency of the existing ground based forest inventories is the uncertainty in the inventory data, particularly in remote areas of Siberia where sampling is sparse, lacking, and often decades old. Remote sensing methods can help overcome these problems. In this joint US and Russian study, we used the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and unique waveform data of the geoscience laser altimeter system (GLAS) and produced a map of timber volume for a 10degx12deg area in Central Siberia. Using these methods, the mean timber volume for the forested area in the total study area was 203 m3/ ha. The new remote sensing methods used in this study provide a truly independent estimate of forest structure, which is not dependent on traditional ground forest inventory methods.

Ranson, K. Jon↗

NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project. DRAFT Joint Test Report

The use of conventional tin-lead (SnPb) in circuit board manufacturing is under ever-increasing political scrutiny due to increasing regulations concerning lead. The "Restriction of Hazardous Substances" (RoHS) directive enacted by the European Union (EU) and a pact between the United States National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI), Europe's Soldertec at Tin Technology Ltd. and the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) are just two examples where worldwide legislative actions and partnerships/agreements are affecting the electronics industry. As a result, many global commercial-grade electronic component suppliers are initiating efforts to transition to lead-free (Pb-free) in order to retain their worldwide market. Pb-free components are likely to find their way into the inventory of aerospace or military assembly processes under current government acquisition reform initiatives. Inventories "contaminated" by Pb-free will result in increased risks associated with the manufacturing, product reliability, and subsequent repair of aerospace and military electronic systems. Although electronics for military and aerospace applications are not included in the RoHS legislation, engineers are beginning to find that the commercial industry's move towards RoHS compliance has affected their supply chain and changed their parts. Most parts suppliers plan to phase out their non-compliant, leaded production and many have already done so. As a result, the ability to find leaded components is getting harder and harder. Some buyers are now attempting to acquire the remaining SnPb inventory, if it's not already obsolete. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), depots, and support contractors have to be prepared to deal with an electronics supply chain that increasingly provides more and more parts with Pb-free finishes-some labeled no differently than their Pb counterparts-while at the same time providing the traditional Pb parts. The longer the transition period, the greater the likelihood of Pb-free parts inadvertently being mixed with Pb parts and ending up on what are supposed to be Pb systems. As a result, OEMs, depots, and support contractors need to take action now to either abate the influx of Pb-free parts, or accept it and deal with the likely interim consequences of reduced reliability due to a wide variety of matters, such as Pb contamination, high temperature incompatibility, and tin whiskering. Allowance of Pb-free components produces one of the greatest risks to the reliability of a weapon system. This is due to new and poorly understood failure mechanisms, as well as unknown long-term reliability. If the decision is made to consciously allow Pb-free solder and component finishes into SnPb electronics, additional effort (and cost) will be required to make the significant number of changes to drawings and task order procedures. This project is a follow-on effort to the Joint Council on Aging Aircraft/Joint Group on Pollution Prevention (JCAA/JG-PP) Pb-free Solder Project which was the first group to test the reliability of Pb-free solder joints against the requirements of the aerospace and military community.

Kessel, Kurt↗

Contrasting Patterns of Damage and Recovery in Logged Amazon Forests From Small Footprint LiDAR Data

Tropical forests ecosystems respond dynamically to climate variability and disturbances on time scales of minutes to millennia. To date, our knowledge of disturbance and recovery processes in tropical forests is derived almost exclusively from networks of forest inventory plots. These plots typically sample small areas (less than or equal to 1 ha) in conservation units that are protected from logging and fire. Amazon forests with frequent disturbances from human activity remain under-studied. Ongoing negotiations on REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus enhancing forest carbon stocks) have placed additional emphasis on identifying degraded forests and quantifying changing carbon stocks in both degraded and intact tropical forests. We evaluated patterns of forest disturbance and recovery at four -1000 ha sites in the Brazilian Amazon using small footprint LiDAR data and coincident field measurements. Large area coverage with airborne LiDAR data in 2011-2012 included logged and unmanaged areas in Cotriguacu (Mato Grosso), Fiona do Jamari (Rondonia), and Floresta Estadual do Antimary (Acre), and unmanaged forest within Reserva Ducke (Amazonas). Logging infrastructure (skid trails, log decks, and roads) was identified using LiDAR returns from understory vegetation and validated based on field data. At each logged site, canopy gaps from logging activity and LiDAR metrics of canopy heights were used to quantify differences in forest structure between logged and unlogged areas. Contrasting patterns of harvesting operations and canopy damages at the three logged sites reflect different levels of pre-harvest planning (i.e., informal logging compared to state or national logging concessions), harvest intensity, and site conditions. Finally, we used multi-temporal LiDAR data from two sites, Reserva Ducke (2009, 2012) and Antimary (2010, 2011), to evaluate gap phase dynamics in unmanaged forest areas. The rates and patterns of canopy gap formation at these sites illustrate potential issues for separating logging damages from natural forest disturbances over longer time scales. Multi-temporal airborne LiDAR data and coincident field measurements provide complementary perspectives on disturbance and recovery processes in intact and degraded Amazon forests. Compared to forest inventory plots, the large size of each individual site permitted analyses of landscape-scale processes that would require extremely high investments to study using traditional forest inventory methods.

Morton, D. C.↗

Interstellar Organics, the Solar Nebula, and Saturn's Satellite Phoebe

The diffuse interstellar medium inventory of organic material (Pendleton et al. 1994, Pendleton & Allamandola 2002) was likely incorporated into the molecular cloud in which the solar nebula condensed. This provided the feedstock for the formation of the Sun, major planets, and the smaller icy bodies in the region outside Neptune's orbit (transneptunian objects, or TNOs). Saturn's satellites Phoebe, Iapetus, and Hyperion open a window to the composition of one class of TNO as revealed by the near-infrared mapping spectrometer (VIMS) on the Cassini spacecraft at Saturn. Phoebe (mean diameter 213 km) is a former TNO now orbiting Saurn. VIMS spaectral maps of PHoebe's surface reveal a complex organic spectral signature consisting of prominent aromatic (CH) and alophatic hydrocarbon (CH2, CH3) absorption bands (3.2-3.6 micrometers). Phoebe is the source of a huge debris ring encircling Saturn, and from which particles (approximately 5-20 micrometer size) spiral inward toward Saturn. They encounter Iapetus and Hperion where they mix with and blanket the native H2O ice of those two bodies. Quantitative analysis of the hydrocarbon bands on Iapetus demonstrates that aromatic CH is approximately 10 times as abundant as aliphatic CH2+CH3, significantly exceeding the strength of the aromatic signature in interplanetary dust particles, comet particles, ad in carbonaceous meteorites (Cruikshank et al. 2013). A similar excess of aromatics over aliphatics is seen in the qualitative analysis of Hyperion and Phoebe itself (Dalle Ore et al. 2012). The Iapetus aliphatic hydrocarbons show CH2/CH3 approximately 4, which is larger than the value found in the diffuse ISM (approximately 2-2.5). In so far as Phoebe is a primitive body that formed in the outer regions of the solar nebula and has preserved some of the original nebula inventory, it can be key to understanding the content and degree of procesing of the nebular material. There are other Phoebe-like TNOs that are presently beyond our ability to study in the organic spectral region, but JWST will open that possibility for a number of objects. We now need to explore and understand the connection of this organic-bearing Solar System material to the solar nebula the the inventory of ISM materials incorporated therein.

Interstellar↗

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle↗

Simulating Forest Dynamics of Lowland Rainforests in Eastern Madagascar

Ecological modeling and forecasting are essential tools for the understanding of complex vegetation dynamics. The parametric demands of some of these models are often lacking or scant for threatened ecosystems, particularly in diverse tropical ecosystems. One such ecosystem and also one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, Madagascar's lowland rainforests, have disappeared at an alarming rate. The processes that drive tree species growth and distribution remain as poorly understood as the species themselves. We investigated the application of the process-based individual-based FORMIND model to successfully simulate a Madagascar lowland rainforest using previously collected multi-year forest inventory plot data. We inspected the model's ability to characterize growth and species abundance distributions over the study site, and then validated the model with an independently collected forest-inventory dataset from another lowland rainforest in eastern Madagascar. Following a comparative analysis using inventory data from the two study sites, we found that FORMIND accurately captures the structure and biomass of the study forest, with r(squared) values of 0.976, 0.895, and 0.995 for 1:1 lines comparing observed and simulated values across all plant functional types for aboveground biomass (tonnes/ha), stem numbers, and basal area (m(squared)/ha), respectively. Further, in validation with a second study forest site, FORMIND also compared well, only slightly over-estimating shade-intermediate species as compared to the study site, and slightly under-representing shade-tolerant species in percentage of total aboveground biomass. As an important application of the FORMIND model, we measured the net ecosystem exchange (NEE, in tons of carbon per hectare per year) for 50 ha of simulated forest over a 1000-year run from bare ground. We found that NEE values ranged between 1 and -1 t Cha(exp -1)year(exp -1), consequently the study forest can be considered as a net neutral or a very slight carbon sink ecosystem, after the initial 130 years of growth. Our study found that FORMIND represents a valuable tool toward simulating forest dynamics in the immensely diverse Madagascar rainforests.

Forest Productivity↗

Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope. Plain Language Summary Polar-orbiting satellites sensors, such as MODIS, have limitations in detecting fires under clouds or when viewing angles are large or in the gaps among satellites' different ground swaths. Here we developed an empirical method to mitigate the effect of these limitations in fire emission estimate. The method is applied to a fire emission inventory (FEER) based on MODIS. We show that, with our method, the adjusted emission inventory improves WRF-Chem simulation of smoke transport and distribution.

emissions properties↗

Systems Development, Data Mining, and Knowledge Discovery

The primary role of the Technical Integration Office is to provide technical solutions and services to different branches at KSC (Kennedy Space Center) and NASA program customers. The Technical Integration Office helps support KSC's operational needs by providing services such as digital connectivity, data center services, modelling and simulation tools, and communication video services. To learn the necessary technology and processes for my internship, I am working on two projects: learning C# (C Sharp programming language) with SQL and developing requirements for a PX (Communication and Public Engagement) inventory management system. To learn how to efficiently program with C#, my mentor assigned me to complete a sports informatics application that would let users discover facts and rules about various sports. The sports informatics application comes with search capabilities, report generating features, rule lists that users can modify, and diagrams for various sport strategies. To further build upon this project, I also developed a sport simulation game with the application. Once I begin more SQL-based projects, I will have the opportunity to learn how to manage databases and link SQL servers with C# programs. To develop requirements for the inventory management system, I have met with PX representatives and toured their storage facilities to see how they organize and store their items and equipment. I will also be meeting with representatives from the budget office to find out what information must be in a system budget report. The main components the system must have are customer request management, a search feature for items and equipment, report generation capabilities, and automated system warnings when item quantities reach or go below administrator-specified threshold levels. I have drafted questions and shall statements that will ultimately become part of the inventory management system requirements document.

Espinosa, Gabriel↗

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local “hot spots”, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗

Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary Lists of Crew Tasks

This is a preliminary report of ongoing research that has identified 1,125 tasks that are likely to be performed during initial human expeditions to Mars. The purpose of the report is to facilitate immediate access to the task inventory by researchers whose efforts might benefit from concrete examples of the work that will likely be performed by the first human explorers of Mars and the tasks for which crew members must be prepared to perform in response to emergencies. The research that led to the task lists is being conducted under Cooperative Agreement NNX15AW34G / NNX16AQ86G for the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element, Human Performance Program, NASA’s Johnson Space Center. The study is ongoing and will conclude with a final report that documents all research activities and presents the results of task and ability analyses and the implications of study results to crew size and composition, personnel selection and training, and design of equipment and procedures. The research addresses the Risk of Inadequate Mission, Process, and Task Design and the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies by identifying the work that will be performed during an expedition to Mars and the abilities, skills, and knowledge that will be required of crew members. The study began by developing the comprehensive inventory of 1,125 tasks that are likely to be performed during the 12 phases of initial human expeditions to Mars, from launch to landing 30 months later. This full-mission task inventory was generated by a comprehensive review of documentation and concepts of operations with the understanding that plans and tasks might change in response to continuing technological development. Note: This interim report includes no discussion of analyses and has been prepared solely to facilitate dissemination of the task lists to others whose research might benefit from detailed information about the work and other activities that are likely to be performed during the human exploration of Mars.

Stuster, Jack W.↗

Interstellar Organics, the Solar Nebula, and Saturn's Satellite Phoebe

The diffuse interstellar medium inventory of organic material (Pendleton et al. 1994, Pendleton Allamandola 2002) was likely incorporated into the molecular cloud in which the solar nebula condensed. This provided the feedstock for the formation of the Sun, major planets, and the smaller icy bodies in the region outside Neptune's orbit (transneptunian objects, or TNOs). Saturn's satellites Phoebe, Iapetus, and Hyperion open a window to the composition of one class of TNO as revealed by the near-infrared mapping spectrometer (VIMS - Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) on the Cassini spacecraft at Saturn. Phoebe (mean diameter 213 kilometers) is a former TNO now orbiting Saturn. VIMS spectral maps of Phoebe's surface reveal a complex organic spectral signature consisting of prominent aromatic (CH) and aliphatic hydrocarbon (CH2, CH3) absorption bands (3.2-3.6 meters). Phoebe is the source of a huge debris ring encircling Saturn, and from which particles (5-20 meter size) spiral inward toward Saturn. They encounter Iapetus and Hyperion where they mix with and blanket the native H2O ice of those two bodies. Quantitative analysis of the hydrocarbon bands on Iapetus demonstrates that aromatic CH is 10 times as abundant as aliphatic CH2 plus CH3, significantly exceeding the strength of the aromatic signature in interplanetary dust particles, comet particles, and in carbonaceous meteorites (Cruikshank et al. 2013). A similar excess of aromatics over aliphatics is seen in the qualitative analysis of Hyperion and Phoebe itself (Dalle Ore et al. 2012). The Iapetus aliphatic hydrocarbons show CH2/CH3 4, which is larger than the value found in the diffuse ISM (InterStellar Matter - (2-2.5). Insofar as Phoebe is a primitive body that formed in the outer regions of the solar nebula and has preserved some of the original nebula inventory, it can be key to understanding the content and degree of processing of that nebular material. There are other Phoebe-like TNOs that are presently beyond our ability to study in the organic spectral region, but JWST (James Webb Space Telescope) will open that possibility for a number of objects. We now need to explore and understand the connection of this organic-bearing Solar System material to the solar nebula and the inventory of ISM (Interstellar Medium) materials incorporated therein.

Phoebe↗

The Influence of Frequency and Duration Of Seismic Ground Motion On The Size Of Triggered Landslides—A Regional View

Observation, theory, and intuition all suggest that larger earthquakes should trigger larger landslides. Many factors could contribute to this, including depth-dependent shear strength or non-linearity of ground motion in soils and rock, but we hypothesize that the key characteristics of large earthquakes causing this phenomenon are (in addition to magnitude) the frequency and duration of the strong ground motion. Because of the paucity of site-specific data for detailed analysis, we take a regional approach to this question by analyzing strong-motion records and earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories from six well-documented earthquakes. Ground motion is characterized using earthquake magnitude and the median durations and frequencies (mean periods) of subsets of strong-motion records relevant to landslide triggering. EQIL inventories are characterized using the median landslide area of the entire inventory as well as the median areas of the largest 1% of the landslides and the largest 10 landslides. We then compare ground-motion characteristics with landslide size statistics to determine possible correlations. Comparisons of all earthquake- and landslide-size statistics show strong positive correlations between landslide size and (1) magnitude, (2) ground-motion duration, and (3) mean period. Although all the ground-motion measures yield highly correlated regressions, mean period appears to be the best overall predictor of landslide size. Landslide modeling using Newmark's sliding-block method also shows that longer mean periods and durations and larger magnitudes correlate strongly with increases in modeled displacements. These results support our hypothesis that increasing period and duration of seismic ground motion are the physical factors driving increased landslide sizes for larger earthquakes. Additional studies including data from a much larger set of earthquakes is needed to confirm the results of this initial study.

Hakan Tanyas↗