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DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Source Machine Learning and Thermoplastics Enhanced Aerostructure Manufacturing (mTEAM)

RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC), together with Collins Aerospace (Collins) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) guided solution to advance the manufacturing and assembly of high performance and lightweight thermoplastic composite (TPC) aerospace products. The solution aims to lower risk, cost and lead time for induction heating based welding and consolidation processes for TPC structure. The cost and lead time of part and material specific process development for induction welding (IW) and induction consolidation will be reduced by replacing traditional empirical methods with optimization methods that merge AI/ML and physics-based process simulations and process experiments with sensing and controls. TPC-IW process development is empirical in nature, and uncertainties in material & process behavior exist near & far from the induction coil. Physics-based simulations can be leveraged directly for process optimization but can be too computationally expensive to run in high fidelity and real time to do robust process optimization. The key impact of successful TPC induction consolidation and welding is cost & lead time reduction for part & material specific consolidation and welding recipes. This is an enabler for more rapid deployment of TPC structures via joining assembly, which can reduce energy & cost intensive usage of autoclaves & ovens. The solution aimed to advance the U.S. Department of Energy’s interests in using thermoplastics and automation in composite manufacturing for improvement of products for existing markets via increased production speeds, reduced costs, and lowered use of energy. Welded TPC structures can offer significant weight & energy savings for high-value commercial aerospace & industrial applications compared to metal & thermoset composite structures assembled by mechanical fastening and/or adhesive bonding. The project was organized into two Budget Periods. Budget Period 1 (BP1) was 15 months and its goal was to perform ML process optimization framework development & deployment on lab-coupon aerostructure components. A Go/No-Go Review was performed at the end of BP1 to verify fulfilment of key tasks & milestones to justify a Go Decision to move into the next Budget Period. Budget Period 2 (BP2) was 12 months and its goal was the deployment of the ML framework for ML process optimization of pilot industrial scale aerostructure components. The overall project aim was to develop & demonstrate ML-enhanced modeling framework that learns process-property mapping from multiple data sources at different fidelities. During BP1, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to demonstrate the concept of multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly. First, the team completed documentation of induction based TPC heating requirements including baseline metrics to compare measured results against. Next the team completed demonstration of data generation from physics-based simulations for ML surrogate model generation and demonstrated the integration of physics-based simulation data into multi-source AI/ML algorithms. In parallel, the team established the lab-coupon scale induction welding system and completed a process to label and reduce generated data from physics-based simulation and experiments for ML surrogate models to enable multi-source ML model training & testing. To complete BP1, the team integrated physics-based simulation data and experimental data into multi-source ML algorithms. This was based on the team completing ML deployment of the induction welding on a lab system at RTRC and AI/ML deployment on existing induction welding line at Collins. ORNL visited both Collins and RTRC sites to witness the TPC induction welding process. Then, ORNL designed and constructed a new version of their vision-based sensing system better adapted to acquire process signals of the TPC induction welding process for process anomaly and defect detection. In BP2, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to scale up multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly from the lab-coupon scale to the pilot-industrial scale. In BP2, the team demonstrated real time anomaly & defect detection via experiments performed by ORNL & RTRC. The team completed ML-optimization heating trials for TPC induction consolidation at Collins, and the team confirmed pilot industrial scale experimental data from Collins was compatible with the developed ML pipeline from RTRC. The team completed sub-element scale ML process optimization demonstration at RTRC, where the team leveraged RTRC’s robotic TPC welding setup to de-risk the ML process optimization by performing ML analysis of recorded temperatures to account for complex part features. Then, the team applied its ML-derived control strategies and ML process optimization framework at Collins to the pilot-industrial scale on a demo skin-stiffener part representative of a nacelle aerostructure fan cowl section. The key innovation is the AI/ML framework enabling effective process development of high performance, lightweight, energy efficient TPCs for composite aircraft structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript evaluating the hydrologic responses of the Pacific Northwest watersheds to wildfires (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Evaluating Post-fire Watershed Response to Varying Burn Severity and Precipitation Regimes Using Fully-distributed and Integrated Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Hydrology (Li et al. 2025). In this study, we employed the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model that couples surface flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes, to investigate post-fire hydrologic responses in a few selected watersheds with varying burn severity.The data package contains the required input data (meteorological forcing, Leaf Area Index, wildfire burn severities, etc.) to run the model, configuration files, the Jupyter notebooks in Python to pre-process and post-process data, the figures in the manuscript, and the modeling output files. The variables include watershed-averaged evapotranspiration, watershed-averaged surface/subsurface/canopy water content, and river discharge at watershed outlet.The data package contains a file-level metadata that lists and describes all the files contained in the data package (ATS_flmd.csv), a data dictionary file that defines columns headers across all csv files contained in the data package (ATS_dd.csv), a data package level readme file (the current file), and four zipped folders.The ‘data’ folder provides data needed to run the model in .h5, .i2s, .xyz, .shp, and .exo formats. The sub-folders are for each data types. The ‘model’ folder provides input files (.xml format) and essential model outputs. Each sub-folder provides the files from each simulated watershed. The ‘notebooks’ folder provides the Jupyter notebooks (.ipynb format) for pre- and post- processing model files, and for producing the figures in the manuscript. The ‘figures’ folder provides the figures associated with manuscript in .pdf and .png formats.The ‘model’ folder and the ‘data’ folder have been split into 5GB-large pieces using the Linux command ‘split -b 5120m model.zip model.zip.’ and ‘split -b 5120m data.zip data.zip.’, respectively. They can be merged back using the Linux command ‘cat model.zip.* > model.zip’ and ‘cat data.zip.* > data.zip’, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Cosmic history of the integrated galactic stellar initial mass function: A simulation study

Theoretical and indirect observational evidence suggests that the stellar initial mass function (IMF) increases with redshift. On the other hand, star formation rates (SFRs) may be as high as 100 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} in starburst galaxies. These may lead to the formation of massive clusters, hence massive stars, making the integrated galactic stellar initial mass function (IGIMF) top-heavy (i.e., the proportion of massive stars is higher than that of less massive stars). We investigate the joint effect of evolving the IMF and several measures of SFRs in dependence on the galaxy-wide IMF. The resulting IGIMFs have slopes α{sub 2,IGIMF} in the high-mass regime, which is highly dependent on the minimum mass of the embedded cluster (M{sub ecl,min}), SFR, and mass-spectrum indices of embedded clusters (β). It is found that for z ∼ 0–2, α{sub 2,IGIMF} becomes steeper (i.e., bottom-heavy), for z ∼ 2–4, α{sub 2,IGIMF} becomes flatter (i.e., top-heavy ), and from z ∼ 4 onward, α{sub 2,IGIMF} again becomes steeper. The effects are faster for higher values of β. α{sub 2,IGIMF} is also for higher values of M{sub ecl,min}. All of these effects may be attributable to the joint effect of increasing the temperature of the ambient medium as well as varying the SFR with increasing redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extending TOUGH + HYDRATE with a parallel particle transport simulator: numerical investigation of sand production during gas production from hydrate deposits

A new parallel code for simulating particle transport in porous media is integrated with the TOUGH + HYDRATE simulator to investigate sand production associated with gas production from unconsolidated gas hydrate-bearing sediments (HBS). Here, the parallel coupled simulator is named THMPT and uses the integral finite difference method to describe the Darcian and non-Darcian flow of fluids and heat transport, the finite element method to describe the associated geomechanical changes, and the discrete element method to track the trajectory of individual sand particles within the HBS. The THMPT simulator is written in Fortran, incorporates multiple optimized algorithms, and can comprehensively address the coupled flow, thermal, chemical, geomechanical, and particle transport processes that characterize the system behaviors during gas production from HBS. The simulator can capture all processes involved in sand particle transport in porous media, including sand detachment, collision, clogging (i.e., bridging), and migration. A benchmark case study of sand production in the course of depressurization-induced gas production from a representative HBS reveals various distinct microscopic particle migration mechanisms and the adverse impact of sand particle detachment, transport, and clogging. The numerical investigation also examines the effect of bottomhole pressure on mitigating sand production. The simulation results indicate that sand clogging near the wellbore significantly reduces permeability, decreasing gas production by at least 50%. Lastly, the efficiency of gravel packing in mitigating sand production is numerically evaluated, revealing that the structure of the porous media appears to profoundly influence the macroscopic motion behavior of sand particles and sand clogging characteristics.

discrete element method↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards Predictive Plasma Science and Engineering through Revolutionary Multi-Scale Algorithms and Models (Final Report)

This report describes the high-level accomplishments from the Plasma Science and Engineering Grand Challenge LDRD at Sandia National Laboratories. The Laboratory has a need to demonstrate predictive capabilities to model plasma phenomena in order to rapidly accelerate engineering development in several mission areas. The purpose of this Grand Challenge LDRD was to advance the fundamental models, methods, and algorithms along with supporting electrode science foundation to enable a revolutionary shift towards predictive plasma engineering design principles. This project integrated the SNL knowledge base in computer science, plasma physics, materials science, applied mathematics, and relevant application engineering to establish new cross-laboratory collaborations on these topics. As an initial exemplar, this project focused efforts on improving multi-scale modeling capabilities that are utilized to predict the electrical power delivery on large-scale pulsed power accelerators. Specifically, this LDRD was structured into three primary research thrusts that, when integrated, enable complex simulations of these devices: (1) the exploration of multi-scale models describing the desorption of contaminants from pulsed power electrodes, (2) the development of improved algorithms and code technologies to treat the multi-physics phenomena required to predict device performance, and (3) the creation of a rigorous verification and validation infrastructure to evaluate the codes and models across a range of challenge problems. These components were integrated into initial demonstrations of the largest simulations of multi-level vacuum power flow completed to-date, executed on the leading HPC computing machines available in the NNSA complex today. These preliminary studies indicate relevant pulsed power engineering design simulations can now be completed in (of order) several days, a significant improvement over pre-LDRD levels of performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

A high-fidelity realization of the Euclid code comparison N-body simulation with Abacus

Abstract We present a high-fidelity realization of the cosmological N-body simulation from the Schneider et al. code comparison project. The simulation was performed with our AbacusN-body code, which offers high-force accuracy, high performance, and minimal particle integration errors. The simulation consists of 20483 particles in a $500\ h^{-1}\, \mathrm{Mpc}$ box for a particle mass of $1.2\times 10^9\ h^{-1}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ with $10\ h^{-1}\, \mathrm{kpc}$ spline softening. Abacus executed 1052 global time-steps to z = 0 in 107 h on one dual-Xeon, dual-GPU node, for a mean rate of 23 million particles per second per step. We find Abacus is in good agreement with Ramses and Pkdgrav3 and less so with Gadget3. We validate our choice of time-step by halving the step size and find sub-percent differences in the power spectrum and 2PCF at nearly all measured scales, with ${\lt }0.3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ errors at $k\lt 10\ \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}\, h$. On large scales, Abacus reproduces linear theory better than 0.01 per cent. Simulation snapshots are available at http://nbody.rc.fas.harvard.edu/public/S2016.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Collaborative Research: Tomographic Imaging of Evolving Laser-Plasma Structures

The project, Collaborative Research: Tomographic Imaging of Evolving Laser-Plasma Structures, involved collaborating with researchers at the University of Texas to understand the acceleration of particles by the interaction of the Texas Petawatt Laser with plasma. Multiple envelope simulations were performed as a study of the effects of collision angle and polarization of interacting hot spots on total charge. A new algorithm for integrating particles in simulations was developed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2010

Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless Transition in Two-Dimensional Dipole Systems

The superfluid to normal fluid transition of dipolar bosons in two dimensions is studied in a broad density range by using path integral Monte Carlo simulations and summarized in the phase diagram. While at low densities we find good agreement with the universal results depending only on the scattering length a{sub s}, at moderate and high densities the transition temperature is strongly affected by interactions and the excitation spectrum of quasiparticles. The results are expected to be of relevance to dipolar atomic and molecular systems and indirect excitons in quantum wells.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗

DOE OSTI2018

Coupled Calculations of the Nuscale FIV Tests: Pre-test Simulations and Sensitivity Analysis

The NEAMS program aims to develop an integrated multi-physics simulation capability “pellet-to-plant” for the design and analysis of future generations of nuclear power plants. In particular, the Reactor Product Line code suite's multi-resolution hierarchy is being designed to ultimately span the full range of length and time scales present in relevant reactor design and safety analyses, as well as scale from desktop to petaflop computing platforms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2012

Design and Simulation of IOTA - a Novel Concept of Integrable Optics Test Accelerator

The use of nonlinear lattices with large betatron tune spreads can increase instability and space charge thresholds due to improved Landau damping. Unfortunately, the majority of nonlinear accelerator lattices turn out to be nonintegrable, producing chaotic motion and a complex network of stable and unstable resonances. Recent advances in finding the integrable nonlinear accelerator lattices have led to a proposal to construct at Fermilab a test accelerator with strong nonlinear focusing which avoids resonances and chaotic particle motion. This presentation will outline the main challenges, theoretical design solutions and construction status of the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) underway at Fermilab.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

EMT and Phasor-Domain Co-simulation of a Low Frequency AC Transmission System for Offshore Wind Integration

This work investigates system level interactions of multi-terminal low frequency high-voltage alternating current (LF-HVac) system using back-to back converters and grid-level 60 Hz system. A co-simulation framework by integrating high- fidelity dynamic model of multi-terminal LF-HVac system in electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation platform and phasor model of IEEE 39 bus system in transient-stability (phasor) program. The co-simulation framework for multi-terminal LF- HVac system with offshore wind integrated in a bulk power system is developed successfully and its steady state and dynamic operation is demonstrated and compared with EMT simulation. The co-simulation results show accurate representation of the dynamic responses with reduced computation burden and time compared to EMT platform.

low-frequency transmission, co-simulation, electro↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale CFD simulation of biomass fast pyrolysis with a machine learning derived intra-particle model and detailed pyrolysis kinetics

Coupling particle and reactor scale models is as essential as reactor fluid dynamics and particle motion for accurate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of biomass fast pyrolysis reactors due to intraparticle heat transfer and chemical reactions controlling conversion time and product distributions. Direct online coupling of a particle model with a reactor model is computationally expensive, while offline coupling is case-dependent. In this research, solutions from a series of particle pyrolysis simulations were regressed with Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermoer, this machine learning-derived model predicted the same temperature and conversion profiles compared with particle resolved simulation while the isothermal approach overpredicted the temperature by 130 K and underpredicted the conversion time by 30 s. The ANN model was then integrated into CFD simulations of fluidized bed biomass fast pyrolysis with varied feedstocks via coupling PyTorch and MFiX. The averaged error of simulation predicted bio-oil yields with four feedstocks is 6.4%. This multi-scale approach provides an efficient tool for the coupled particle and reactor scale simulations of biomass pyrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Path integral Monte Carlo calculation of the momentum distribution of the homogeneous electron gas at finite temperature

Path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations are employed to calculate the momentum distribution of the homogeneous electron gas at finite temperature. Open paths are introduced to sample off-diagonal elements of the real-space density matrix. Here it is demonstrated how the restricted PIMC method can be extended to incorporate open paths in order to allow for the simulations in fermionic systems where a sign problem is present. The computed momentum distribution shows significant deviations from behavior of free fermions when strong correlations are present but agrees with predictions from variational methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scoping Study of Integrated Geothermal CO 2 Heat Pump and Water Well System in Cold Climate Region

This study evaluates the feasibility of using ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) integrated with water wells for residential heating demands in cold regions of the United States. Four different heat pump systems were evaluated and compared: a CO 2 air-source heat pump (ASHP), a R-410A ASHP, a CO 2 GSHP integrated with well water, and a R-410A GSHP integrated with well water. Simulations were conducted at both equipment and building integration levels, followed by a nationwide analysis across 10 selected cities. Results indicate that integrating GSHP technology with existing water wells (e.g., artesian, bedrock, drilled, and collector wells) is a feasible heating solution because of their high flow rates, good water quality, stable temperatures, and low environmental impact. Although R-410A systems demonstrate higher efficiency, CO 2 systems are more suitable for heating from contamination-free and energy security perspective. The CO 2 GSHPs maintain better performance in colder climates compared with that of ASHPs, providing higher coefficient of performance and environmental benefits because CO 2 refrigerant leakage would not contaminate well water. A national analysis confirms that CO 2 GSHPs outperform furnaces, especially in cold climates, making them a promising solution for residential heating.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scoping Study of Integrated Geothermal CO 2 Heat Pump and Water Well System in Cold Climate Region (CRADA Final Report)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗